RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE SURVEY

Transcription

1 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE SURVEY QUARTER II-2005 Residential property price increased In the next quarter, the increasing price was estimated to continue Residential Property Price Development Price went up and accelerated Bank Indonesia Residential Property Price Survey (RPPS), covered for 14 big cities including Jakarta greater area (known as Jabotabek), on QI-2005 indicated price increasing of new houses built on observed period. The index reached or it grew by 1.88% (q-t-q). It was higher than previous quarter growth 1.80%. Based on the type or size of houses, the highest increase occurred in large type (2.54%), followed by small, and medium type at 1.87% and 1.25% respectively. Based on the areas, the highest increase was in Banjarmasin (5.82%), mainly happened on large type (7.39%). Oppositely, the lowest increase was in Manado (- 0.76%). In addition, in Jabotabek area the price just slightly increased by 0.04%. Graph 1 Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) and Its Changes (composite of 14 cities in Indonesia) (%) (Index) RPPI 4,5 Methodology Residential Price Property Survey is the quarterly survey which collected from 1999 based on development project from 12 cities, i.e. Medan Padang, Palembang, Bandar Lampung, Bandung, Semarang, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Denpasar, Banjarmasin, Manado, and Makassar. At the first quarter 2002, coverage area of survey become 13 cities including Jabotabek (Jakarta, Bogor, Tanggerang and Bekasi) area. And at the first quarter 2004, coverage became 14 cities including Pontianak. Data collected directly from developer covered price and total sales in the recent quarter and prediction for the next quarter. Data processed by average method of price by each type ( lower, lower middle, middle, upper middle and upper) and by type of building (small, medium, large). Composite Index is developed by simple average chain Index). Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics Division 1

2 Residential Property Survey The increasing price of next quarter will be slower The developers expected the price of residential property would increase as it showed by index at in quarter III Quarterly, the index would grow by 0.82% (q-t-q), or it will be lower than that in quarter II The increase mainly caused by increase of small type of building price by 1.16% while for large and medium type of building the price increased by 0.% and 0.40% respectively. On quarterly basis, the city which was predicted to be the highest in price increasing was Surabaya (2.22%), but the lowest was Padang. In addition, Jabotabek area was predicted to increase by 1.12% (q-t-q). Graph 2 RPPI Development, Small Type ,0 RPPI of Small Type Graph 3 RPPI Development, Medium Type 7, ,0 RPPI of Medium Type Residential Property Survey Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics Division 2

3 Graph 4 RPPI Development, Large Type RPPI of Large Type Housing cost in quarter II-2005 showed an increase (inflation ) Refering to the price movement of housing group on CPI in quarter II-2005 (June 2005), RPPI indicated similar tendency but different level (index-128,63). Quarterly, the housing group price increased by 1.56%, which was lower than the previous quarter (2,37%). Meanwhile, in June 2005 sub group of goods/services for housing cost experienced inflation 0.31% (m-t-m). % (q-t-q) 4,5 Graph 5 Changes in RPPI and CPI Housing Group Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III* RPPI Changes Changes in CPI Housing Annually RPPI experience a increasing Residential Property Survey Annually (y-o-y), Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) in quarter II-2005 increased by 5.81%, which was higher that the previous quarter (5.45%). The development occurred in all type of houses which was the highest growth occurred in small type of (5.93%), followed by medium type (5.88%), and large type (5.62%). The highest annual growth occurred in Banjarmasin (11.18%), but the lowest occurred in Bandar Lampung (1.67%). Meanwhile, Jabotabek area only grew annually at 3.96%. In quarter III-2005, the annual growth of RPPI was estimated to The price increase in quarter be lower (by 5.39%) than previous quarter (5.81%). The slowdown III-2005 was projected to be slowdown Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics Division 3

4 tendency of annual growth occurred in all type of houses which the growth of the price of small, medium, and large types were 5.93%, 5.43% and 4.78% respectively. Based on areas, the highest increase of annual growth occurred in Banjarmasin (11.58%), but the lowest was in Bandar Lampung (1.41%). Jabotabek area was predicted to grow annually at 3.94%. Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics Division 4

5 Residential Property Survey Table 1 RPPI Changes in quarter II-2005 NO CITY Quarterly Changes Anually Changes Small Medium Large All Small Medium Large All 1 BANDUNG 6 0,28 4,50 1,78 4,27 4, ,21 2 BANDAR LAMPUNG 0,40 0,79-5 0,38 0,86 3,65 0 1,67 3 BANJARMASIN 5,79 4,28 7,39 5,82 11,37 10,73 11,40 11,18 4 DENPASAR 1,77 5 3,20 1,67 5 1,92 2,43 1,99 5 PALEMBANG 1 0,97 6,76 3, ,46 8,09 9,92 6 SEMARANG 5 2,78 4,12 3,32 10,68 8,94 6,77 8,80 7 YOGYAKARTA 3 0,20 0,41 0,38 4,29 0 5, PADANG 2,97 4,22 2,37 3,19 4,36 4,22 4,99 4,54 9 MEDAN 5,14 5,51 6 3, 5,47 5,34 2,31 4,39 10 MAKASSAR 6-0,81 2,62 0,62 14,22 7,33 9 7,67 11 MANADO ,76 2 8,33-5,46 12 SURABAYA 2,34 0,64 8 1,19 4,72 7, ,70 13 PONTIANAK ,97 3,42 0 1,80 14 JABOTABEK ,92 3,12 2,85 3,96 All Cities 1,87 1,25 4 1,88 5,93 5,88 5,62 5,81 Table 2 Expectation of RPPI Changes in Quarter III-2005 NO CITY Quarterly Changes Anually Changes Small Medium Large All Small Medium Large All 1 BANDUNG 1,30 1,10 3 0,98 4,49 3, ,31 2 BANDAR LAMPUNG 0 0 0,40 0,13 0,86 2,46 0, 1,41 3 BANJARMASIN 2,65 3,12 0 1,92 12,77 11, DENPASAR 1,92 1,86 0 1,26 3,28 3,82 2,42 3,20 5 PALEMBANG 1,10 1 1,43 1,18 7,09 6,25 8,28 7,25 6 SEMARANG 0,69 0,21 0 0, ,25 6,77 8,03 7 YOGYAKARTA 0,60 7 0,17 0,45 3,65 4 2,24 2,64 8 PADANG 0, ,33 4,22 4,99 4,53 9 MEDAN 0,49 7-0,16 0,13 5,99 4,86 2,15 4,34 10 MAKASSAR 2, , ,70 11 MANADO 0 0,61-0,30 2 8,99-5,77 12 SURABAYA 2,43 2,47 1,76 2,22 7,27 9,18 9,69 8,72 13 PONTIANAK 1, ,48 3,43 3,42 0 2,29 14 JABOTABEK 0,78 1,49 7 1,12 5,32 3,73 2,78 3,94 All Cities 1,16 0, 0,40 0,82 5,93 5,43 4,78 5,39 Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics Division 5