Fraser TSA Timber Supply Analysis. File Report JULY, 2015 JIM BROWN, RPF

Transcription

1 Fraser TSA Timber Supply Analysis File Report JULY, 215 JIM BROWN, RPF 1

2 Contents File Report The Fraser TSA Major Issues and Considerations for the Fraser TSA Background information Timber Harvesting Land Base Definition... 9 Non-forest... 9 Land not administered by FLNR for TSA timber supply... 9 Exclusion of geographically defined areas... 1 Inoperable areas... 1 Sites with low timber growing potential and problem forest types Unmerchantable forest types Environmentally sensitive areas Cultural heritage resource reductions Experimental and permanent sample plots Established recreation sites and trails Roads, trails and landings Karst Ungulate winter range reductions Wildlife habitat area reductions Spotted owl wildlife habitat areas... 2 Riparian reserve zones Landscape-level biodiversity Stand-level biodiversity Sites with adequate timber potential but insufficient projected volume Timber licence reversions Netdown Table Forest Inventory... 3 General Description... 3 Age Class /Species Profile Forest Management Assumptions Utilization levels

3 Minimum harvestable age Harvest scheduling and targets priorities Logging method Silvicultural systems Incremental Silviculture Unsalvaged losses Regeneration activities in managed stands... 4 Immature plantation history Not satisfactorily restocked (NSR) areas Genetic gain through tree improvement Objectives for visual resources Objectives for adjacent cutblock green-up Objectives for community watersheds Objectives for spotted owl habitat areas Objectives for landscape-level biodiversity Growth and Yield Volume Estimates for Existing Stands Site Productivity Estimates Volume Estimates for Regenerating Stands Analysis Results Finding the Base Case Forecast Base case Forecast Age Distribution Over Time Alternative harvest flow Key Issue, Harvest of Old Stands Key Issue, Minimum Harvest Age.... Key Issue, ESA netdown Key Issue, Inventory Fraser TSA Inventory Audit Adjustments Key Issue, Managed Stand OAF Fd-leading stands Key Issue, Cutblock Adjacency Rules Key Issue, Hemlock/Balsam Harvest Level Key Issue, Deciduous Sensitivity analysis summary

4 1. The Fraser TSA The Fraser TSA is located in the southern mainland portion of the South Coast Region. It is bounded on the west by Howe Sound; on the north by the Soo (Sea to Sky) TSA; on the east by the Cascade District and south by the Canada-United States border. This TSA is administered by the FLNR Chilliwack Natural Resource District office located in Chilliwack. It is the most densely populated TSA in the province, encompassing the major population centres of Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, as well as many smaller communities such as Hope, Yale and Boston Bar. A significant number of large provincial parks, including Golden Ears, Garibaldi, Mehatl, Manning, Skagit Valley, Cultus Lake, Chilliwack Lake, Pinecone-Burke, Seymour, and Indian arm are located partially or wholly within the boundaries of the TSA. Tourism, recreation, biodiversity and conservation values are also very important in the Fraser TSA. The area provides easy accessible forest recreation opportunities for people living in or near the Lower Mainland, and scenic values along several major highway corridors that transect the TSA. Figure 1. Fraser TSA 4

5 The current AAC for the Fraser TSA, which came into effect October 3, 27, is 1,239,1 cubic metres. The AAC was adjusted to account for the Cascade Lower Canyon Community (CLCC) Forest Agreement, in accordance with Section 11 of the Allowable Annual Cut Administration Regulation. It was below the last TSR, 24, which set the AAC at 1.27 million cubic metres. The scheduled AAC determination was postponed in 28, under Section 8 (3.1) of the Forest Act. Historically, the AAC for the Fraser is outlined in the table below. Table 1 Historical AAC for Fraser TSA Year TSR AAC (million m3/yr) % Change of AAC Comments n/a n/a % An increase of cubic metres reflecting the inclusion of predominantly deciduous forest stands % Decline due to lower operability, environmental sensitivity and low productivity sites % Decline due to creation of several new parks, spotted owl % Maintained % Adjusted to account for the CLCC Forest Agreement (Licence is 3,9m3/yr). 5

6 2. Major Issues and Considerations for the Fraser TSA The major forest management issues to be considered in this timber supply review are listed in the table below. Where possible, the issues are assessed directly in the timber supply analysis. Table 2 Major Issues and Considerations Consideration/issue Land base designations Treaty settlement lands Landscape-level biodiversity Stand level-biodiversity Spotted owl wildlife habitat areas Wildlife habitat areas Ungulate winter range Resource features Description Private land and established area-based forest tenures including woodlots, community forests, will be excluded from the timber supply analysis. The Tsawwassen First Nation treaty took effect on April 3, 29. Removes Crown land within urban areas from the TSA Yale Final Agreement Act received Royal Assent from the federal government Removes Crown forest land from the TSA In 21 of the 24 landscape units (LUs) within the Fraser TSA, landscape-level biodiversity objectives are achieved through the establishment of old growth management areas (OGMAs). In the three LUs without OGMAs, old-forest retention targets are achieved in the large tracts of forests reserved in parks and watershed conservancies. Landscape unit plans (LUP) set out targets for wildlife tree retention (WTR), otherwise retention is managed to legislative requirementsas per the Forest and Range Practices Act On March 1, 211 the SOMP 2 land designated areas were legally established as 17 approved wildlife habitat areas (WHAs) and general wildlife measures (GWM). These replace the rateof-harvest constraints in TSR3 for SOMP1.. In addition to spotted owl, WHAs and associated GWM have been established for grizzly bear, Pacific water shrew, mountain beaver, Pacific giant salamander, and tall bugbane. A Government Action Regulation (GAR) Order established over 35 hectares of ungulate winter range for mountain goat (U-2-1) and over 31 hectares of winter range for black-tailed deer and mule deer (U-2-6), approved on March 1, 28 and August 22, 29 respectively. There is a non-spatial GAR order for Karst in the Chilliwack River Valley and Silverhope Creek LUs. The analysis assumes that stand-level retention for these karst features is captured by the WTR reserve areas. The Kweh-Kwuch-Hum (northwest part of Mt Woodside) Spiritual Areas were identified as cultural heritage resource features by a GAR order, dated June 23, 28. The Kweh-Kwuch-Hum will be considered a no-harvest area (1% netdown) in the High Cultural Features and Use Area areas only for the analysis. Community watershed Riparian management Visual resource management There are 77 community watershed areas within the Fraser TSA. The timber supply analysis assumes a rate-of-harvest constraint in CWS. A predictive classification model developed in TSR3 was used to assign stream/lake and wetland classifications Riparian management areas (RMAs) applied to r streams, lakes and wetlands are consistent with current practices and removed from the THLB. Management for visual quality is a key consideration in the Fraser TSA and there is a area with establish visual opbjectives. Scenic areas and visual quality objectives (VQOs) were continued for the Chilliwack Natural Resource District in 25 under Section 17 of the GAR and updated in

7 Consideration/issue Shifting harvest profiles Cutblock size and adjacency Site productivity Operability Complex Operating Areas Description Within the Fraser TSA, there has been a shift from harvesting older growth hemlock/balsam to second-growth Douglas-fir and cedar forests. The influence on long-term productivity with increased harvesting of second-growth stands and the associated influence of lower harvest ages will be examined in the timber supply analysis. A forest cover constraint (IRM) is incorporated into the base case forecast to account for cutblock adjacency limitations. The analysis uses site productivity estimates for managed stands derived from a provincial biophysical site index model to project growth rates of managed stands.this replaces SIA adjustments in TSR3 The analysis uses the TSR3 operability classification which was derived using a number of parameters: slope, topography (e.g., presence of gullies or exposed rock), difficulty of road access, soil stability, elevation and timber quality in the Fraser TSA. Inoperable areas are removed from the THLB. Complex Operating Areas, such as Bowen Island, are areas where urban development or other non-timber factors increase the complexity of forest operations. A low level of operating performance has been demonstrated within the provincial forest lands in these areas. Since no land use decisions have been made regarding the areas, they are assumed to contribute to the TSA timber supply but at a limited rate. 7

8 3. Background information The table below lists the inventories that will be used to determine the THLB and to model forest management activities. A more detailed description of these information sources is available in the Fraser Timber Supply Area Timber Supply Review Data Package, October 213. Table 3 Inventory information and spatial layers Data Source Layer name Date Fraser TSA administrative boundary and timber supply blocks Ownership and land administration including, parks and protected areas woodlots, TFL, CFA FLNR Forest FRASER_TSA_21396, FADM_TSB_ Tenures Br FAIB, DCK F_OWN_ Vegetation Resources Inventory (VRI) FAIB VEG_COMP_LYR_R1_POLY_ Provincial harvest depletion mapping FAIB CONSOLIDATED_CUTBLOCKS_ Roads, trails and landings FLNR TSR_CombinedRoads_Buff1m.shp, 213 TSR_CombinedRoads_Buff15m.shp Operability mapping DCK OPERABILITY_ Registered archaeological sites RAAD RAAD_TFM_SITES_ Established recreation sites and trails FTB FTEN_REC_LINES_1m_BUFFER_213926, 213 FTEN_REC_TRAILS_1m_BUFFER_213926, FTEN_RECREATION_SITES_ Approved old-growth management areas FLNR OGMA_LEGAL_CURRENT_ Approved wildlife habitat areas (WHAs) FLNR WILDLIFE_HABITAT_AREA_ Resource features Mt. Woodside FLNR KWEH_KWUCH_HUM_GAR_ (Kweh-Kwuch-Hum) Resource features karst area FLNR KARST_GAR_ Ungulate winter range UWR 2-6 and amendment(s), Ungulate winter range (UWR) U-2-1 Permanent sample plots (PSP) and research plots FLNR UNGULATE_WINTER_RANGE_ FAIB GRY_PSP_STATUS_ACTIVE_213626, RESEARCH_INSTN_GVT_SVW_ Landscape unit boundaries RMOB LANDSCAPE_UNIT_ Visual landscape inventory and visual quality objectives and scenic areas (updated 213) 213 FLNR ESTABLISHED_VQO_ , 213 Community watersheds MOE COMMUNITY_WATERSHED_GOV_ N/A Powerlines, hydrolines, transmission lines Tantalis TANTALIS_HYDRO_RW_ Yale Designated Area No. 3 FLNR YALE_PT13_NO3_ Environmentally sensitive areas FLNR ENVIRONMENTALLY_SENSITIVE_AREAS_ Riparian management area FAIB ALL_RMA_ Tsawwassen First Nation treaty land FLNR n/a 29 8

9 4. Timber Harvesting Land Base Definition This section describes the types of areas that do not contribute to the timber harvesting land base. Use of the term timber harvesting land base in this report does not mean the area is open to unrestricted logging. Rather, it implies that forests in the area contain timber of sufficient economic value and sites of adequate environmental resilience to accommodate timber harvesting with due care for other resources. Non-forest The VRI provides an accurate description of non-forest areas to be removed from the forest land base. Non forest areas including alpine, wetlands, lakes, rocks, and other non-treed areas were removed from the forest land base. Areas are also excluded where the site index is less than five metres. The Forest Management Land Base (FMLB= N ) in the VRI was used to exclude non-forest areas unless they have been previously harvested. Land not administered by FLNR for TSA timber supply Lands not administered by the FLNR for timber supply include parks and protected areas, private land, municipal land, federal land, Tree Farm Licences, Community Forest Agreement, woodlots and other tenures or leases Parks, protected areas and other miscellaneous reserves within the TSA were excluded from the THLB but included within the crown forested land base (CFLB) and contributed to constraints applied for nontimber objectives. FLNR ownership codes, augmented with tenure boundary maps (i.e., regional parks, provincial parks, and protected areas) were used to classify land as contributing or not-contributing to the TSA timber supply. A total of 185,537 hectares were excluded from the THLB as parks and protected areas Table 4 Ownership code Ownership codes applied to define CFMLB and THLB Crown forested land base THLB 4 Private Crown Grant No No 5 Federal Reserve No No 52 Indian Reserve No No 53 Military Reserve No No 6 Crown Ecological Reserve Yes No 61 Crown Use, Recreation (UREP) Reserves Yes Sch C: Yes/Sch N: No 62 Crown Forest Management Unit (TSA) Yes Yes 63 Crown Provincial Park Class A Yes No 67 Crown Provincial Park equivalent or Reserve Yes No 69 Crown Miscellaneous Reserves Yes Sch C: Yes/Sch N: No 7 Crown Active Timber Licence in a TSA or TFL Yes Sch C: Yes/Sch N: No 72 Crown and Private Schedule A and B Lands in a TFL No No 75 Crown Christmas tree permit Yes No 77N Crown and Private Woodlot Licence No No 77C Proposed Crown and Private Woodlot Licence Yes Yes 79 Community Forest No No 99 Crown Misc. lease (e.g. recreation cottage site, club site) No No 9

10 Figure 2 Map of Land not administered by FLNR for TSA timber supply Exclusion of geographically defined areas The following areas were excluded from the THLB used in the base case forecast: - The Tsawwassen First Nation Treaty (29) area consists of approximately 724 hectares of treaty settlement land (TSL) for Tsawwassen First Nation. This includes approximately 29 hectares of former reserves and 372 hectares of former provincial Crown land. - The Yale First Nation Final Agreement Act was passed (not in effect) by BC legislature (211) and Federal government approval (213). The Yale Agreement provides for 1966 hectares of proposed treaty lands, including 1749 hectares of provincial Crown land and 217 hectares of existing reserve land. Part 13 Order for the Yale Agreement area expires December The Kweh-Kwuch-Hum (Mt Woodside) Spiritual Areas were identified as cultural heritage resource features by a Government Actions Regulation Order (June, 28). The Kweh-Kwuch-Hum protects and conserves spiritual areas as noted in the order. A number of areas within the TSA have seen limited harvesting where urban development or other nontimber factors increase the complexity of forest operations. Further discussion on these areas is captured in the associated factor(s) (e.g. recreation, community watersheds etc.). Inoperable areas The current operability (developed during TSR2), conducted in 1996 by licensees, BCFS and a consultant is based on the presence or absence of physical barriers or limitations to harvesting, the appropriate logging methods (e.g., cable, helicopter) and the merchantability of the stands. 1

11 Previously unharvested stands with an operability code of I (inoperable) or N ( not classified) were excluded from the THLB The 213 FAIB cutblock inventory was used to identify previously unharvested areas. Total area removed as inoperable area was 258,788 hectares, or 41 percent of the productive forest managed by FLNR. Table 5 Operability classification Operability Class CMFLB area in hectares Percent CMFLB Operable area in hectares Percent Operable Conventional 345,358 55% 345,358 93% Helicopter 13,578 2% 3, % Inoperable-logged 13,586 2% 13, % Inoperable 258,789 41% % 631,31 372,522 Figure 3 Map of inoperable areas No new operability mapping was submitted by the licensees for this TSR, however, a 27 study completed by Timberline Forest Inventory Consultants for the Fraser TSA Cooperative Association concluded that the existing operability mapping is conservative and overly constraining on timber supply. The study generated an alternative operability map that increased the operable area by 2%. An assessment completed by District staff, prior to the 28 AAC Postponement decision, found that 8% of the area harvested was outside of the THLB. It may trade off the inoperable areas that are included in the THLB or be additional opportunity. Harvest performance information for the TSA indicates that the older H/B stands have been harvested in a lower proportion than they occur in the operable land base. 11

12 Sites with low timber growing potential and problem forest types Sites may have low productivity either because of inherent site factors (e.g., poor nutrient availability or excessive moisture) or because they are not fully occupied by commercial tree species. The table below shows stands that exhibit productivity estimates below the productivity required to produce a merchantable stand by 15 years of age. Such sites are not expected to contribute to timber supply, and were removed from the timber harvesting land base. Table 6 Criteria to define low-timber growing-potential stands Leading species Characteristics used to identify unharvested stands with low timber potential Fir Existing volume less than 35 m³/hectare and site index at breast height (SI5) less than 16 metres (projected not to produce 35 m³/hectare by age 15 years). In heli-log areas (operability = H ) volume and SI criteria will be based on achieving 4 m³/hectare by age 15 years. Cedar Existing volume less than 35 m³/hectare and SI5 less than 13 metres (projected not to produce 35 m³/hectare by age 15 years). In heli-log areas (operability = H ) volume and SI criteria will be based on achieving 4 m³/hectare by age 15 years. Hemlock/Balsam Existing volume less than 35 m³/hectare and SI5 less than 11 metres (projected not to produce 35 m³/hectare by age 15 years). In heli-log areas (operability = H ) volume and SI criteria will be based on achieving 4 m³/hectare by age 15 years. Spruce (FIZ D) Existing volume less than 3 m³/hectare and SI5 less than 11 metres (projected not to produce 3 m³/hectare by age 15 years). All heli-log areas (operability = H ). Pine Existing volume less than 3 m³/hectare and SI5 less than 13 metres (projected not to produce 3 m³/hectare by age 15 years). All heli-log areas (operability = H ). Reduced Area (ha.) 3, ,223 Alder Existing volume less than 15 m³/hectare. 1,729 Areas that have been previously logged were not removed from the THLB as stands with low timber potential. Unmerchantable forest types Unmerchantable forest types are stands which are physically operable and exceed low site criteria yet are not currently utilized. These types are wholly or partially excluded from the THLB. These unmerchantable forest types include: cottonwood, aspen, birch, and maple Table 7 Unmerchantable forest types Leading species Inventory type group Cottonwood, Aspen, Birch, Maple 35, 36, 39, 4, 41, 42 Environmentally sensitive areas An environmentally sensitive area (ESA) is an area that is susceptible to disturbance (e.g. unstable terrain, or areas that are difficult to reforest). ESA values were used to exclude areas from the THLB where more specific and detailed information is not available about a particular forest resource. ESA in the Fraser TSA were identified by transferring and overlaying the sensitive area attributes from the previous forest cover inventory since these attributes are not incorporated in VRI. This is currently 12

13 the best available means of identifying ESA for sensitive soils, avalanche hazard, and tree regeneration reasons in the Fraser TSA. The table below outlines the ESA netdowns applied in the base case. Table 8 ESA netdown amounts ESA ESA description Reduction (%) category S1 Highly sensitive soils 1 A1 Avalanche hazard 1 P1 Severe regeneration problems 1 The previous forest inventory also includes ESA category S2 areas (moderate sensitive soils). Since land base reductions for low-site productivity eliminates a large portion of the S2 area and timber harvesting occurs in the balance of the S2 area, no specific reduction is applied for S2 areas. These assumptions also off set the 1 percent of ESA S1 areas that were assumed to be harvestable in the previous timber supply analysis and are now completely removed from the THLB. ESA in the Fraser TSA were identified by transferring and overlaying the sensitive area attributes from the previous forest cover inventory since these attributes are not incorporated in VRI. This is currently the best available means of identifying ESA for sensitive soils, avalanche hazard, and tree regeneration reasons in the Fraser TSA. The table below outlines the ESA netdowns applied in the base case ESAs1 areas that were in cutblocks logged before 1995 contribute 1.7% of the THLB. Figure 4 ESA Netdown Areas - Fraser TSA 13

14 Cultural heritage resource reductions A cultural heritage resource (CHR) is an object, site, or location of a traditional societal practice that is of historical, cultural or of archaeological significance to the province, a community, or an aboriginal people. CHRs include but are not limited to archaeological sites, structural features, heritage landscape features and traditional use sites. An archaeological overview assessment (AOA) has been completed for the Chilliwack Forest District in The AOA mapped known archaeological sites, areas with high probability of culturally modified trees and habitation sites and identified major watercourses as potential first nations travel corridors. Where subsequent field investigations confirm the presence of archaeological sites they are mapped as a non-standard geographic information system (GIS) file. These point locations are identified in the Remote Access to Archaeological Data (RAAD) and buffered using a minimum of one hectare. Table 9 Cultural heritage feature netdowns Identified inventory variables Known archaeological feature - point Known archaeological feature - area Excluded area (ha) One hectare per occurrence within a forest cover polygon Archaeological feature polygon area In the Fraser TSA there are 1,22 hectares attributed to RAAD archaeological sites. Of this 498 hectares have been accounted for through previous net downs and thus the remaining 524 hectares have been removed from the THLB. Experimental and permanent sample plots Experimental and permanent sample plots were removed from the forest land base. 1-metres buffer ON experimental and permanent sample plots The total area for these plots is 928 ha, and after factoring in other constraints the net removal from the THLB is 482 ha. Although some of these areas may be harvested, new plots are likely to be created. The base case assumes a balance between future additions and deletions. Established recreation sites and trails Recreation features are features on the land base that are important for public and commercial recreation activities. These features, such as, wildlife viewing areas, camp sites, trails and sheltered moorage areas can result in the exclusion of harvest activities. Legally established recreation sites, trails and interpretive forests have very high recreation values. In the timber supply analysis, small recreation sites identified in the Forest Tenure Recreation map layer in the BC Geographic Warehouse were partially excluded from the THLB. The inventory of established recreation sites, trails and reserves was reviewed by district staff and each feature was assigned a netdown ratio, from 5% to 1%, based on its assessed significance, use and other factors. Very few features received 1% netdown. This approach was applied instead of the one described in the data package, which was deemed to remove an inappropriately large area from the THLB. In addition to the above sites there are several larger areas in the TSA that have intensive recreational use. Vedder Mountain has very productive forests and very high recreation use. Integrating these interests is typically managed at an operational level under a licensee s social licence in conjunction with other nontimber objectives. There has been a steady amount of conifer and deciduous harvesting on Vedder Mountain over the past ten years and this is expected to continue as the stands become more economically merchantable. Vedder Mountain represents about 1,72 ha or.7% of the THLB in the TSA. 14

15 Blue Mountain Recreation Site and Bowen Island are also urban interface areas with high recreation use. Blue Mountain area comprises about 1,353 ha or.5% of the THLB and Bowen Island about 2,536 ha or 1.% of the THLB. The base case limited the rate-of-harvest of harvest on Bowen Island to no more than 5% per 5 years. No incremental THLB reductions for recreation was applied in the Blue Mountain Recreation site, Bowen Island, the planned Vedder Mountain Interpretive Forest or the many undesignated recreation trails in the TSA since recreation features in these areas are often managed in conjunction with other non-timber objectives. Figure 5 Recreation netdown areas - Fraser TSA Roads, trails and landings The average width of all classes of permanent roads was assumed to be 15 metres. The area reduction was determined by buffering road center lines 7.5 metres each side. The resultant road area was assumed to reflect the loss of growing space due to roads, trails and landings while accounting for utilization of road edges by regenerating trees and the small amount of reclaimed (planted) roadbed not indicated in the inventory. To account for future roads, the THLB within previously unlogged areas was reduced by 5% after the first pass of harvesting in the model. Stands over 8 years old were assumed to be not-previously harvested for the purpose of the future road netdown. This road area reduction is consistent with information collected during a review past logging in the TSA conducted prior to the last TSR. However, no detailed road-width inventory has been undertaken. 15

16 Alternative netdown amounts were calculated assuming roads that are 5 metres wider and 5 metres narrower. The outcomes are summarized in the table below. The forecasted timber volume is affected proportionate to the percent THLB change. Table 1 Summary of road netdowns in the Fraser TSA Scenario Width (m) Centre line Buffer (m) Crown Land Base (ha) THLB (ha) Road Netdown (ha) Less road , ,942 11,952 11% Base Case ,846 25,45 15,795 1% More Road ,6 246,223 21,636 98% Percent of the base case Figure 6 Existing Roads and Hydrolines - Fraser TSA Karst In 21, a GAR Order established specific elements of karst systems as resource features (e.g. limestone fluted rock surfaces, sinkholes, and caves) within the Chilliwack District. Like the recreation resource features, this designation results in protection under FRPA s Forest Planning and Practices Regulation for specified karst elements. Although the GAR Karst Resource Feature Order is non spatial in nature, it is assumed that karst features will be managed under professional reliance and will reflect best management practices in the Karst Management Handbook and Karst Inventories. Karst resource features within the THLB can be managed through existing constraints such as OGMAs, spotted owl management areas, visual constraints and mainly by placement of wildlife tree retention (WTR) areas over karst features during operational planning. The analysis assumes that area needed for karst features is captured by the WTR areas. Ungulate winter range reductions Two separate Government Action Regulation (GAR) Orders have established winter ranges for mountain goat and black-tailed deer in the Fraser TSA. Each order includes General Wildlife Measures (GWM) 16

17 that prohibits or constrains primary forest activities within in each UWR unit. The GWMs have been modelled in the timber supply analysis by applying appropriate THLB exclusion factors. As indicated in Ungulate winter range reductions, two separate Government Action Regulation (GAR) Orders have established winter ranges for mountain goat and black-tailed deer in the Fraser TSA. Each order includes General Wildlife Measures (GWM) that prohibits or constrains primary forest activities within in each UWR unit. The GWMs have been modelled in the timber supply analysis by applying appropriate THLB exclusion factors. The GWMs for U-2-1 (goat) prohibit primary forest activities in all 16 UWR units. Therefore, 1 percent forest retention has been applied in U-2-1 goat winter range. The GWMs for U-2-6 (deer) are more complex compared to mountain goat. There are 115 separate deer UWR units in the District. In 17 of those, timber harvesting is prohibited (i.e., 1 percent retention) due to the small overall size of the unit. For the remaining 98 winter ranges, forest retention requirements are based on snow depth and vary from 2% in low snow pack zones to % in deep snow pack zones. The complex GWMs for U-2-6 winter ranges are incorporated into the timber supply analysis by calculation of the amount of THLB area in each deer management unit that must be constrained in order to meet the retention targets after all suitable habitat in non-thlb areas is considered. The THLB impact ratio used to do this were taken from Timber Impact Assessment for the UWR-2-6 Proposal in the Fraser TSA (August, 29) 17

18 Table 11 UWR netdown areas Species Order Order date Approximate area (ha) THLB removed (ha) Mountain Goat Black-tailed deer/ Mule deer Black-tailed deer/ Mule deer U-2-1 U-2-6 U-2-6 amendment March 1, 28 35,6 2,111 August 22, 29 31,8 1,947 May 12, (including one new unit and additional area in other units) Figure 7 Goat (purple) and deer (yellow) winter range, Fraser TSA - Fraser TSA The GWMs for U-2-1 (goat) prohibit primary forest activities in all 16 UWR units. Therefore, 1 percent forest retention has been applied in U-2-1 goat winter range. The GWMs for U-2-6 (deer) are more complex compared to mountain goat. There are 115 separate deer UWR units in the District. In 17 of those, timber harvesting is prohibited (i.e., 1 percent retention) due to the small overall size of the unit. For the remaining 98 winter ranges, forest retention requirements are based on snow depth and vary from 2% in low snow pack zones to % in deep snow pack zones. The complex GWMs for U-2-6 winter ranges are incorporated into the timber supply analysis by calculation of the amount of THLB area in each deer management unit that must be constrained in order to meet the retention targets after all suitable habitat in non-thlb areas is considered. The THLB impact ratio used to do this were taken from Timber Impact Assessment for the UWR-2-6 Proposal in the Fraser TSA (August, 29) Wildlife habitat area reductions The Identified Wildlife Management Strategy (IWMS) was first approved in 1999 and then updated in 24. It outlines a process to identify and establish wildlife habitat areas (WHAs) and associated GWMs to protect rare plant communities or certain species at risk. 18

19 One-hundred and eleven WHAs covering a gross area of nearly 12 hectares have been established in the Fraser TSA. Table 12 lists the number of WHAs and total gross area by species and provides a description of the management activity prohibited or permitted within the WHAs. Table 12 Wildlife habitat areas Species Number of WHAs Gross area (ha) Management activity Grizzly Bear Within the grizzly bear WHAs, harvesting and road construction are prohibited. The timber supply analysis will assume the grizzly bear WHAs are reserved from timber harvesting. Spotted Owl As described in Factor 29. Mountain Beaver Pacific Water Shrew 1 79 To protect mountain beaver burrows from damage, harvesting and road construction are prohibited. The timber supply analysis will assume this WHA is reserved from timber harvesting The pacific water shrew WHAs provide for a core area and a management zone. Harvesting and road construction are not permitted in the core area. Partial harvesting that maintains 7% basal area is permitted in the management zone. Tall Bugbane 7 46 The tall bugbane WHAs provide for a core area and a management zone. Harvesting and road construction are not permitted in the core area. Partial harvesting that maintains 6% of the stand basal area is permitted in the management zone, which comprises about 85 percent of the WHA. Pacific Giant Salamander The pacific giant salamander WHAs provide for a core area and one or two management zones. Harvesting and road construction are not permitted in the core area. Partial harvesting that maintains 7% basal area in the riparian management zone or 3% basal area in the upland management zone is permitted. Total

20 WHAs including Spotted Owl LTOH Figure 8 WHAs including Spotted Owl LTOH - Fraser TSA Spotted owl wildlife habitat areas LTOHA functions as current or future spotted owl habitat; the objective over time is that 1% of habitat in LTOHA becomes suitable or superior. The timber supply analysis assumed the LTOHA is reserved from timber harvesting. MFHA is predominantly meant to maintain options such that if necessary it could become future spotted owl habitat or LTOHA (like an insurance policy in case of catastrophic loss of LTOHA). It is available for timber harvesting opportunities while retaining structural attributes. For MFHA in drier ecosystems, a minimum average of 4 large diameter trees/ha was assumed to be retained as single trees or groups of trees within the cutblock. For MFHA in wetter ecosystems, a minimum average of 15 large diameter trees/ha was assumed to be retained as single trees or groups of trees within the cutblock. In both cases no more than 4 percent of the trees within the cutblock are retained within WTR and other reserves. The MFHA retention requirements were modelled by applying incremental Operational Adjustment Factors (OAF) that reduced the harvestable area in drier ecosystem MFHA by 11% and wetter ecosystem MFHA by 5%. These retention amounts were incremental to baseline wildlife tree retention. 2

21 Figure 9 LTOHA (purple) MFHA (pink) - Fraser TSA 21

22 Table 13 MFHA retention requirements Table Age Vol12.5 Largest15 % Largest 4 Fd % % Fd % % Fd % % Fd % % Fd % % Fd % % Fd % % Fd % % Fd % % Fd % % Fd % % X.6 to account for overlap Fd % % Fd % % Fd % % Fd % % Fd % % HB % % HB % % HB % % HB % % HB % % HB % % HB % % HB % % HB % % HB % % HB % % HB % % HB % % % 22

23 Riparian reserve zones The information used to capture the effects of riparian management on the TSA timber supply was assembled following the methodology applied in the previous timber supply review. This methodology was applied to estimate the area within riparian management area using available inventory information and the classifications in the Riparian Management Area Guidebook. Buffer widths for stream features were developed to reflect limitations in the TRIM data and to capture operational practices in riparian reserve zones and riparian management zones. Streams were classified as follows. All double-line river polygons were assumed to be S1 rivers. The polygons were then buffered internally to determine their width. The result was used to distinguish large rivers S1L from the normal S1 riparian category (i.e., >2 m in width but not S1L). Only the lower portion of the Fraser River starting about 1 kilometres upstream of Hope fell into this S1 large river category. All other double-line rivers are considered S1 streams. Single-line rivers were classified using the slope of the stream reach (as a surrogate for fish presence) and the distinction between definite/indefinite and intermittent streams. The 25-metre grid digital elevation model (DEM) was used to create a slope layer for the study area. This was formed into polygons with slopes either greater than or less than and equal to 2 percent. The slope attribute was attached to the single line water features and they were classed as follows: Table 14 Riparian stream classes Stream class Single-line water type Slope class S2/S3 Definite & indefinite <2% S4 Intermittent <2% S5 Definite & indefinite >= 2% S6 N/A N/A Buffers were generated along classified riparian features using riparian width guidelines listed in the Riparian Management Guidebook as shown in the table below. In some cases the calculated RMA width differs from the implemented RMA width for stream classes S3 to S6. There is no GIS method to distinguish between S2 and S3 streams so the S2 width was applied to both classes. It is likely that S4 and S5 are underrepresented in TRIM maps compared to their actual occurrence on the landscape so the implemented width assumed a wider management zone (by 1 metres) for these classes to compensate for this underestimate. No S6 streams were identified and they were not explicitly included Table 15 Riparian stream netdown assumptions Feature class Reserve zone width (m) Management zone width (m) Management zone retention (%) Calculated RMA width (m) S1L S S S3* S S S N/A L L L L W Implemented RMA width (m) 23

24 Feature class Reserve zone width (m) Management zone width (m) Management zone retention (%) Calculated RMA width (m) W W W W * There is no GIS method to distinguish between S2 and S3 streams so the S2 width was applied to both classes. Implemented RMA width (m) The riparian reserve zone and management zone widths listed above are consistent with Division 3 - Riparian areas of Part 4 - Practice requirements of the Forest Planning and Practices Regulation. All trees are assumed to be retained in the reserve zones. Since the regulation does not specify default retention amounts within riparian management zones, except for minor tenures, the stand retention amounts for S2 to S5 stream management zones were specified using data about RMAs collected by the Forest and Range Evaluation Program (FREP) in the Chilliwack Natural Resource District. Figure 1 Map of riparian netdown areas - Fraser TSA 24

25 Landscape-level biodiversity Through approved Landscape Unit Plans, Old Growth Management Areas (OGMAs) have been legally established for 21 of 24 landscape units in the Fraser TSA. For the base case, it has been assumed that these areas satisfy all old-seral biodiversity requirements in these units and the OGMAs were removed from the timber supply. The three landscape units where OGMA delineation has not been completed are largely occupied by parks or protected areas or forest stands not contributing to the THLB. Including or excluding these three landscape units from the analysis will make no difference. The forecast assumes that OGMAs satisfy all old-seral biodiversity requirements in applicable LUs. The three landscape units with no OGMA are largely occupied by parks or protected areas. aspatial constraint for 3 LUs will not likely impact forecast - not applied in the model Map of old growth management areas Figure 11 Map of old growth management areas- Fraser TSA 25

26 Stand-level biodiversity Spatial netdown applied similar to the previous TSR. A 2-metre buffer was placed around forested stands that are not part of the timber harvesting land base and WTR of various sizes were randomly placed in cutblocks outside the 2-metre buffer zone. In the previous TSR this technique was found to adequately account for WTR constraints in the TSA. In the analysis, WTPs contributed to old forest requirements if their age was sufficient. For the base case, no restriction was placed on the area of the WTPs that can contribute old forest. Since WTPs under two hectares in size should not contribute to biodiversity, there was some risk that contribution of WTPs may have been overstated slightly. However, the assignment of the WTPs in analysis was random within the areas requiring retention, and consequently reflected the age class distribution of the timber harvesting land base in general. Since the forest age conditions in the timber harvesting land base in the Fraser TSA do not often meet old forest requirements, the contribution of WTPs to old forest requirements was limited at any rate Table 16 Wildlife tree retention amounts Landscape unit BEC subzone WTR (%) Landscape unit BEC subzone WTR (%) Landscape unit BEC subzone Ainslie CWHds 12 Chehalis CWHdm 1 Mehatl MHmm 8 Ainslie CWHms 11 Chehalis CWHvm 1 Nahatlatch CWHds 3 Ainslie ESSFdc 9 Chehalis MHmm 5 Nahatlatch CWHms 7 Ainslie ESSFmw 5 Chilliwack CWHdm 13 Nahatlatch ESSFmw 6 Alouette CWHdm 7 Chilliwack CWHds 11 Nahatlatch IDFww 4 Alouette CWHvm 7 Chilliwack CWHms 11 Nahatlatch MHmm 8 Alouette CWHxm 7 Chilliwack CWHvm 9 Pitt CWHdm 7 Alouette MHmm 7 Hatzic CWHvm 7 Pitt CWHvm 7 Anderson CWHds 9 Hatzic MHmm 7 Pitt MHmm 7 Anderson CWHms 9 Manning CWHms 4 Silverhope CWHds 6 Anderson ESSFmw 6 Manning ESSFmw Silverhope CWHms 6 Anderson IDFww 5 Manning MHmm 2 Silverhope MHmm 3 Anderson MHmm 7 Mehatl CWHds 6 Spuzzum CWHds 1 Big Silver CWHds 9 Mehatl CWHms 2 Spuzzum CWHms 1 Big Silver CWHms 9 Mehatl ESSFmw 6 Big Silver MHmm 5 Mehatl IDFww 4 WTR (%) 26

27 Figure 1 Figure 2 The charts to the left illustrate the steps followed to develop a spatial netdown for wildlife tree retention. WTR is assumed to apply to forest interior that is more than 2 metres from forest edge. A 2m buffer was applied to the outside edge of all reserve areas (Figure 1). The interior zone was then divided by landscape units that have unique WTR requirements (Figure 2). One hectare cells were randomly selected within the interior area at densities that match WTR requirement (Figure3). The WTR were removed from the THLB (Figure 4). Figure 12 WTP mapping method Figure 3 Figure 4 27

28 Timber licence reversions The volume associated with timber licences does not contribute to the TSA allowable annual cut. Once these areas have been harvested, regenerated and attain free growing status, the timber license area reverts to FLNR jurisdiction. Accordingly, these areas are included in the timber harvesting land base after the first harvest where they contribute to the mid- and long-term timber supply. There is approximately 77 hectares of unreverted timber licenses in the timber harvesting land base. These areas were assumed to be harvested and reverted to Crown within the next 1 years. 28

29 5. Netdown Table Table 17 Netdowns for Fraser TSA Land Class Land area removed by Category (ha) Category total (ha) TSA Gross Area 1,423,38 Community Forests 26,6 Other Tenures and Leases 58,639 Private and Federal Land 155,49 TFL lands 18,325 Ocean 15,569 Crown Land in TSA 1,148,955 Not Productive Forests 312, Hydro lines 3,663 Existing roads 15m buffer 15,795 Crown Forest Land in TSA 816,847 Parks and Reserves 185,537 Managed-Forest Land Base in TSA 631,31 Land Class Managed forest land base area (ha) Net Amount removed (ha) Inoperable Stands 258, ,788 Non-merchantable 17,145 1,95 Low Site Stands 19,314 1,789 Old Growth Management Areas 74,956 22,44 WHA Reserve Areas 76,894 34,392 Goat UWR - Reserve Area 23,166 2,111 RAAD Sites 1, Environmentally Sensitive Areas 96,456 13,2 Research Plots & PSPs Riparian Management Area 33,394 13,364 Deer Winter Ranges 15,954 1,948 WHAs Partially Reserved Recreation Sites 1,6 36 Wildlife Tree Patches 1,715 1,715 Yale Part13 Area 1, Kweh Kwuch Hum Spiritual Areas Category total (ha) Current THLB (with Timber Licences) 25,45 29

30 Area in Hectares 6. Forest Inventory General Description A vegetation resource inventory (VRI) was completed for the Fraser TSA based on 1996 aerial photography. The VRI file has had stand attributes projected to 212 and stand disturbances (including harvesting) updated to 212. Information from the change detection imagery was used for this process. Note that Phase 1 of the Fraser TSA VRI did not include all of the historical information that has been traditionally recorded on the forest cover (FC1 coverage). This was collected in Phase 2 by establishing ground sample plots to determine the accuracy of the photo interpreted labels established during Phase 1 (specifically, age, height and volume). In 1997 and 1999, VRI Phase 2 sampling was conducted for the operable and inoperable Vegetated Treed (VT) portion of the Chilliwack District (excluding private lands, Parks and other legally recognized Protected Areas, TFLs, and woodlots). Further discussion on the Phase II is provided in Factor 13. Age Class /Species Profile Logging history dates back to the early 2th century and so there is a substantial amount of second-growth timber in the Fraser TSA. Initially there is 64% of the THLB in age classes -6 years, 12% in age classes 7-12 years, and 24% in the remaining age classes (>12 years) Year of the Forecast Non-THLB THLB Stand Age in Years Figure 13 Initial stand age class distribution - Fraser TSA 3

31 Area in Hectares Area in Hectares Area in Hectares Area in Hectares Year of the Forecast Non-THLB THLB Year 1 of the Forecast Stand Age in Years Stand Age in Years 8 7 Year 5 of the Forecast 8 7 Year 15 of the Forecast Stand Age in Years Stand Age in Years Figure 14 Forecast change in stand age class distribution - Fraser TSA The mature volume is predominately Hemlock/Balsam leading (Hw/Ba) (58% by volume), Douglas-fir (32%) cedar (5%) and with about 1-3% each of spruce/pine, alder and other species. THLB Area by Leading Species 1% 3% THLB Volume by Leading Species 2% 2% 2% 1% 27% 5% 22% 13% 4% 1% 1% 37% 17% 21% 15% D. Fir Leading <=115 D. Fir Leading >115 Hemlock/Balsam Leading <=115 Hemlock/Balsam Leading >115 Cedar Leading <=115 Cedar Leading >115 Other Conifer Leading <=115 Other Conifer Leading >115 Deciduous (alder) Leading <=115 Deciduous (alder) Leading >115 26% Figure 15 Distribution of stand types by leading species on THLB - Fraser TSA 31

32 Thousands 1% 2% 5% 8% THLB Volume by Species 28% Douglas fir Hemlock/Balsam Cedar Pine Spruce THLB Area by Leading Species 33% 4% 55% 4% 4% 2% Alder 56% Figure 16 Distribution of THLB volume by tree species -Fraser TSA 32

33 7. Forest Management Assumptions Utilization levels Table 18 Utilization levels Leading species Minimum diameter at breast height (dbh) Maximum stump height Pine/larch 12.5 cm 3 cm 1 cm Spruce 12.5 cm 3 cm 1 cm All others < 121 years 12.5 cm 3 cm 1 cm All others 121 years 17.5 cm 3 cm 15 cm Minimum harvestable age The minimum harvestable age for stands in each analysis unit was defined as: a) the estimated age at which the stand is predicted to reach a required minimum volume; and Minimum top diameter inside bark (dib) b) the age at which the stand s mean annual increment (MAI) achieves a value of 95 percent of the maximum (culmination). Table 19 Minimum harvestable age criteria Analysis unit group Volume per hectare conventional (Heli-harvested) Minimum harvestable age based on volume criteria (years) Culmination age (years) Fir; site index (SI) 2 35 m³/ha Fir; SI (4) m³/ha Cedar all sites 35 (4) m³/ha Hemlock/balsam; SI m³/ha Hemlock/balsam; SI (4) m³/ha Pine/larch 3 m³/ha 9 7 Spruce 35 m 3 /ha 8 13 Alder 15 m 3 /ha 4 N/A In order to be eligible for harvesting a stand must meet both of these criteria In STSM, a stand was eligible for harvesting if it met the MHA Age and Volume-based merchantability limits. 33

34 Table 2 Minimum harvestable ages AU Id RDelay MHA MHV CMAIage OT Ce Ce D_ Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd Fd AU Id RDelay MHA MHV CMAIage 23 HB HB HB HB HB HB HB HB HB HB HB HB HB HB HB HB HB HB HB HB HB OT Pl S_

35 Harvest scheduling and targets priorities Harvest order preference is based on merchantable volume relative to minimum criteria ( higher volume stands selected first but stands must meet MHA). Probability of selection for harvest is also based on multipliers: location relative to existing roads probability higher is stands close to roads and on timber supply block groups based on TSB shown below. highest probability group: Harrison, Stave, Chilliwack, s middle probability group: Pitt, Yale, lowest probability group: Maple Ridge, Nahatlatch TSB VPH / MVH Distance to Road Initial Preference Figure 17 Mapping harvest scheduling and targets priorities-fraser TSA 35

36 Initial Preference Figure 18 Initial harvest preference - Fraser TSA Logging method Conventional logging methods (i.e., ground base or cable) are the dominant harvesting systems within the Fraser Timber Supply Area. Heli-logging is employed but no specific volume target has been assigned to this method of extraction. Heli-logging volumes will be monitored separately during this timber supply review. Table 21 Harvest method modelling assumptions Harvest Method Min Volume Dist. Roaded Road Pct Age Roaded 1 Conv. Conifer Conv. Pine Conv. Alder Heli. Conifer

37 Figure 19 Mapping logging method - Fraser TSA Silvicultural systems The majority of the TSA is harvested by clearcut or clearcut with reserves which is the silviculture system assumed for all stands in the base case. There has been a minor amount of variable retention (VR) silviculture system in the TSA this past decade. Base case assumption is clearcut or clearcut with reserves. Sites with adequate timber potential but insufficient projected volume Stands with adequate timber potential but insufficient volume were not harvested in the base case forecast. These stands were included in the THLB since they meet productivity limits but due to other attributes (for example stocking class, species composition, crown closure, etc.) were not projected to reach the minimum volume by 15 years of age or failed to be prioritized for harvesting due to low volume relative to other available stands. A total of 18,179 ha of these stands were not harvested in the forecast. Of these 1,475 ha were deciduous leading. The deciduous alder-leading stands are typically those older than the merchantable range (> 7 years old). STSM ragebasedmerch criteria was applied in the base case Using min volume by AU and Harvesting System 37

38 Figure 2 Low-site stands - Fraser TSA Incremental Silviculture Incremental silviculture activities have been undertaken across various areas within the Fraser TSA, as follows: Fertilization Approximately 87 hectares of managed forest has been fertilized each year in the Fraser TSA over the last two decades. Fertilization targeted 4 year-old Douglas-fir leading stands on medium productivity sites. The average gain in volume at rotation is estimated and modelled at 3 cubic metres per hectare per application. Fertilization information from RESULTS was used to determine which stands receive an increase in stand volume due to this treatment. Juvenile Spacing There has been 27 hectares of juvenile spacing that has been completed in the TSA between 25 and 215. These treatment areas have been funded by the LBIS but it is uncertain if spacing funds will be available for future treatments. No specific timber supply assumption was applied for juvenile spacing. Fertilized stands 38

39 Figure 21 Incremental silviculture - Fraser TSA Unsalvaged losses Estimated average annual unsalvaged volume loss due to catastrophic events such as insect epidemics, fires, wind damage or other agents are shown in the table below. The unsalvaged loss column reflects those areas in which the volume will not be recovered. Table 22 Unsalvaged losses summary Cause of loss Annual loss within the THLB Salvage rate (m³/year) % (m³/year) Annual unsalvaged loss within the THLB Wind % 2 34 Fire 16 5 % 16 5 Mountain Pine Beetle 4 % 4 Douglas-fir Bark Beetle 8 8 5% 4 4 Spruce Beetle 2 % 2 Western Balsam Bark Beetle 3 1 % 3 1 Total Wind: With the increase in alternate harvesting method there has been an increase in blowdown within harvested areas, leave trees and reserves. Loss to windfall is based on 3 m³ per opening for clearcut harvested blocks. An estimated 14 blocks are created each year based on historic harvest rates. Recovery of windthrow is estimated at 25%. Fire: Historic wildfire data indicates that an average of 345 hectares was burned by wildfire each year in the TSA which amounts to.24 percent of the TSA area. Most of the burned stands are located outside of the THLB and little of the fire killed volume is recovered. This percentage was multiplied by THLB growing stock volume to estimate annual unsalvaged volume loss in the THLB (16 5 m³). This estimate is similar to the loss assumed in the previous TSR. Currently a wildfire is burning in the Nahatlatch drainage. It covered approximately 2,8 ha on July 2th and is not contained. The majority of the burned area is outside of the THLB. 39

40 Insects: The annual areas damaged by Douglas fir Bark Beetle, Western Balsam Bark Beetle and Spruce Beetle were estimated in forest health overview assessments conducted between 28 and 212. Volume losses in damaged stands within the THLB were estimated from cruise summaries. We may see increased impact in the next few years due to the dry spring and summer this year. Insects MPB: Although annual volume loss from Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) were quite high (>1 cubic metres) in the recent outbreak period between 1999 and 212, the MPB outbreak is expected to subside significantly in the Fraser TSA. Estimates of future annual volume loss for the next decade, derived using the Provincial Level Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation Projection model, is 4 cubic metres per year. There are some other damage agents that are causing low or unquantified damage to forested areas. Swiss Needle Cast is a fungal infection that causes premature needle drop in Douglas-fir trees. There is potential for growth loss in younger Douglas-fir stands which District staff is currently monitoring. Due to the current drought, we may also identify additional mortality in the next few years which cannot be attributed to other damage agents. Regeneration activities in managed stands Recent plantations and future stands were grown on managed stand yield tables (MSYTs) produced using the Forest Service TIPSY v4.2 growth and yield model. All Not Satisfactorily Restock (NSR) areas and stands harvested in the future were projected using separate MSYTs. Future MSYT were the same as existing MSYT except that genetic gain was applied. The table below lists the inputs used to produce the MSYTs. Each row describes the stand conditions to be applied to all analysis units in the respective SI range. 4

41 Table 23 Regeneration assumptions by analysis unit Analysis unit Site index Regen delay (years) OAF (%) Regeneration distribution Species 1 2 Pattern % Code % Density (stems per hectare) Cedar <1 years All Plant 1 Cw Fd 3 planted Cedar 1+years All Plant 1 Hw Cw 3 planted Fir leading < Plant 1 Fd Cw 18 planted Hw Ba Fd Ba Hw 16 Ba 12 Fir leading Plant 1 Fd planted Cw 25 Fir leading Plant 1 Fd planted Cw 24 Hw 1 Hemlock/Balsam < Plant 1 Ba Sx 3 planted Hemlock/Balsam Plant 1 Ba 6 11 planted Sx 2 Hw 1 Cw 1 Hemlock/Balsam > Natural 1 Ba 3 28 total Cw Ss Pine/Larch All Plant 1 Ss Fd Pl Spruce All Plant 1 Sw Fd Hw 2 Fd planted 12 planted Alder/Fir All Plant 1 Fd-leading planted All Plant 1 Dr-leading planted 41

42 Immature plantation history Table 24 Immature plantation assumptions Analysis unit All Douglas-fir All Hemlock/Balsam All cedar All pine/larch All spruce Stand age at which MSYT will be applied <= 45 years <= 35 years <= 25 years <= 25 years <= 25 years Not satisfactorily restocked (NSR) areas All NSR is considered current. Genetic gain through tree improvement realized volume gain from tree improvement in the Fraser TSA reported through RESULTS is 4.5 percent for planted Douglas-fir on good sites, 2.8 percent for planted Douglas-fir on poor sites, and 1.3 percent Objectives for visual resources The recommended visual quality classes for the Chilliwack Natural Resource District were continued as established visual quality objectives (VQOs) under GAR Section 17 in October 25. A VQO is a resource management objective established for an area that reflects the desired level of visual quality based on the physical characteristics and social concern for the area. Several classes have been defined in the Fraser TSA. On April 18, 213, amendments were made to about 22 percent of the existing VQO boundaries in the northern portion of the TSA. These changes were based on a revised visual inventory, which considers factors such as public use, visibility and significant viewpoints, as well as comments submitted during consultation process. The timber supply analysis applies forest cover objectives that are consistent with the established VQO. The maximum percent denudation was applied to each forested area in a visual polygon based on its assigned VQOs and assessed Visual Absorption Capability (VAC) as outlined below.. Table 25 Forest cover requirement for visual quality objectives, Fraser TSA Visual quality objective Maximum allowable disturbance (%) VAC low VAC VAC medium high Green-up Crown Managed Forest Land height or age Base Area in hectares Retention m 2,9 Partial retention m 118,444 Modification m 3,9 42

43 percent of total THLB 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Figure 22 R-L R-M R-H PR-L PR-M PR-H M-L M-M M-H Area of THLB falls within each denudation class - Fraser TSA VQO - VAC R-L R-M R-H PR-L PR-M PR-H M-L M-M M-H Outside of TSR process, on occasion, the district does receive requests to amend the VQOs within the TSA (e.g. Upper Pitt River, Hatzic etc.). These requests are reviewed on a case by case basis and may result in a legal change to the VQOs. As VQOs change, they will be captured in the next Fraser TSA timber supply review. Table 26 Maximum denudation assumptions for VQO class Visual quality objective Maximum allowable disturbance (%) VAC VAC low medium VAC high Green-up height or age Area of application Retention m Forested area in a visual polygon Partial retention m Forested area in a visual polygon Modification m Forested area in a Visual polygon 43

44 Figure 23 Visual quality objective area - Fraser TSA Objectives for adjacent cutblock green-up Adjacency / green-up requirements were modeled by applying a forest cover constraint which limited the amount of harvesting in each landscape unit such that no more than 25 percent of the stands in the THLB are less than the green-up age. Table 27 IRM adjacency / green-up assumptions Maximum allowable disturbance (%) Green-up height Area of application 25 3 m THLB within each LU outside of visual area Green-up was assumed to occur when stands achieve 3 metres in height. Spatial blocking or patch size constraints were not applied in the base case. However, as requested by some of the forest licensees, spatial blocking or patch size was applied in a sensitivity forecast. Spatial adjacency was modelled by applying a 2-metre buffer around each harvest patch. The areas within buffers were then temporarily reserved for the green-up period. The forecast also applied a patch-size distribution target based on NDT shown in Table 33.1 Table 28 Patch size distribution applied in sensitivity forecast PatchClass Size Range NDT1/2//4/5 NDT3 to 4 ha 35% 25% 1 4 to 8 ha 35% 35% 2 8 to 12 ha 3% 4% 44

45 Figure 24 Sensitivity forecast applied spatial adjacency - Fraser TSA Objectives for community watersheds There are 77 designated Community Watersheds in the Chilliwack Natural Resource District. To reflect current forest management practices in these areas, a forest cover constraint was applied which limited the rate of harvesting within each watershed to one percent of the productive forest area each year. This constraint was developed based on guidance in the Community Watershed Guidebook that indicates that in the absence of a completed Coastal Watershed Assessment Procedure, harvesting activity should be limited to five percent of the productive forest area over a five year period. 45

46 Figure 25 Community Watersheds - Fraser TSA Objectives for spotted owl habitat areas In 28, the provincial Cabinet approved and released a revised spotted owl management plan (SOMP 2) which reconfigured owl management areas and management practices identified in SOMP 1 to provide improved habitat protection for spotted owls. Under SOMP 2, two designations were identified to manage Crown forests for spotted owls: long-term owl habitat areas (LTOHA) and managed future habitat areas (MFHA). On March 1, 211 these designated areas were legally established as 17 WHAs (2-494 to 2-51) over 14,812 ha (gross area). The THLB impact from this revised Cabinet level plan was carried forward from SOMP 1; and importantly that impact is not attributed to the 1% amount established for the IWMS. LTOHA functions as current or future spotted owl habitat; the objective over time is that 1% of habitat in LTOHA becomes suitable or superior. The timber supply analysis assumed the LTOHA is reserved from timber harvesting. MFHA is predominantly meant to maintain options such that if necessary it could become future spotted owl habitat or LTOHA (like an insurance policy in case of catastrophic loss of LTOHA). It is available for timber harvesting opportunities while retaining structural attributes. For MFHA in drier ecosystems, a minimum average of 4 large-diameter trees/ha was assumed to be retained as single trees or groups of trees within the cutblock. For MFHA in wetter ecosystems, a minimum average of 15 large-diameter trees/ha was assumed to be retained as single trees or groups of trees within the cutblock. In both cases no more than 4 percent of the trees within the cutblock are retained within WTR and other reserves. The MFHA retention requirements were modelled by applying incremental Operational Adjustment Factors (OAF) that reduced the harvestable area in drier ecosystem MFHA by 11% and wetter ecosystem MFHA by 5%. These retention amounts were incremental to baseline wildlife tree retention. 46

47 Table 29 Spotted owl MFHA retention assumptions Group Area retained (%) Minimum tree retention Area of application Spotted owl WHAs in wet ecosystems 1 15 largediameter trees per hectare Each WHA managed future habitat areas Spotted owl WHA in dry ecosystems 1 4 largediameter trees per hectare Each WHA managed future habitat areas Figure 26 Spatial OAFS applied see netdown Section on WHAs- Fraser TSA Objectives for landscape-level biodiversity As inidicated in Section 4. approved Landscape Unit Plans, Old Growth Management Areas (OGMAs) have been legally established for 21 of 24 landscape units in the Fraser TSA. For the base case, it has been assumed that these areas satisfy all old-seral biodiversity requirements in these units and the OGMAs were removed from the timber supply. 47

48 8. Growth and Yield Volume Estimates for Existing Stands The variable density yield projection (VDYP) model, console version v7.7a.33, developed and supported by FAIB, was used to estimate timber volumes for existing natural stands. Existing natural stands are defined based on ages in table below Table 3 Species Definition of existing natural stands Existing Natural (years) All Douglas-fir All Hemlock/Balsam All cedar All pine/larch All spruce >45 years > 35 years > 25 years > 25 years > 25 years Existing natural stand yield tables were not aggregated, a table was compiled for each individual stand. A volume check showed a 1% difference in the total volume calculated from unadjusted yield table volumes and the total volume summed from the VRI. Phase II Sampling: As discussed in Factor 12, VRI Phase 2 sampling was conducted for the operable and inoperable Vegetated Treed (VT) portion of the District (excluding private lands, Parks and other legally recognized Protected Areas, TFLs, and woodlots) in 1997 and 1999 In 214 data from 128 sample plots collected in 1997 and 1999 were recompiled using VDYP7 and attribute adjustment ratios were produced following the FAIB VRI attribute adjustment procedures. Attribute adjustments were compile for the following five strata within the TSA: 1. Inoperable (TSR3), 2. Operable; balsam, spruce or pine leading 3. Operable; fir leading 4. Operable; hemlock or cedar leading 5. Operable; other species leading. The final adjustment ratio for volume per hectare net decay waste and breakage (12.5 cm utilization) are shown in the table below. Table 31 Summary of volume adjustment ratios, Fraser TSA Strata Inoper. Oper. B/S/Pl Oper. Fd leading leading Oper. Hw/Cw leading Oper. Other leading Sample Size Phase II mean volume/ha Phase I mean volume/ha Ratio of Averages Total 48

49 The scatter plots for the volume attribute (net Decay and Waste) generally show a fan-shaped distribution of sample points which suggests the ROM model used to calculate the above ratios is reasonable. Figure 27 VRI Phase 2 scatter plots for volume attribute - Fraser TSA The overall volume adjustment ratio was.98 indicating that overall Phase I volume estimates matched well against Phase II ground samples. Unexplainably, Phase II adjusted VRI yield tables provided, on average, higher yield estimates than the unadjusted yield tables. A sensitivity forecast that applied the above ratios as volume table OAFs to existing naturals stands had the same harvest level as the base case. The total initial growing stock on the THLB was 5% lower than the base case. Site Productivity Estimates The analysis uses site productivity estimates for managed stands derived from a Provincial Site Productivity Layer to project growth rates of managed stands. This replaces the Site Index Adjustments (SIA) in TSR3. The site index (SI) estimates in the provincial layer are derived from a SIBEC (site index by ecosystem)/pem (predictive ecosystem mapping)/tem (terrestrial ecosystem mapping) model or a biophysical model. In the Fraser TSA the majority of estimates are based on the biophysical model since there is no TEM for most of the TSA. The Provincial Site Productivity Layer is considered by FAIB to be an appropriate source of site productivity estimates for strategic analysis purposes. Figure 15.1 provides a comparison of the managed stand analysis unit groupings used in TSR3 and TSR4 for hemlock and Douglas fir. In TSR3 the SI of future managed stands were assumed to fall into a few high SI classes (dark blue bars) compared to the flatter distribution assumed in TSR4 (green bars) 49

50 HB1 HB11 HB12 HB13 HB14 HB15 HB16 HB17 HB18 HB19 HB2 HB21 HB22 HB23 HB24 HB25 HB26 HB27 HB28 HB29 HB3 THLB Area (hectares) Fd17 Fd18 Fd19 Fd2 Fd21 Fd22 Fd23 Fd24 Fd25 Fd26 Fd27 Fd28 Fd29 Fd3 Fd31 Fd32 Fd33 Fd34 Fd35 THLB Area (hectares) 5 4 TSR3 Initial AU TSR3 Managed AU TSR4 AU TSR3 Initial AU TSR3 Managed AU TSR4 AU Figure 28 Comparison of site index distribution of managed stands in TSR3 and TSR4 - Fraser TSA This difference in future stand SI is the reason the long-term level of the base case is lower than the TSR3 base case. Volume Estimates for Regenerating Stands Recent plantations and future stands were grown on managed stand yield tables (MSYTs) produced using the Forest Service TIPSY v4.2 growth and yield model. Existing managed stands were defined based on the ages in the table below. Table 32 Species Ages used to define existing natural stands, Fraser TSA Existing Natural (years) All Douglas-fir All Hemlock/Balsam All cedar All pine/larch All spruce <=45 years <= 35 years <= 25 years <= 25 years <= 25 years All Not Satisfactorily Restock (NSR) areas and stands harvested in the future were projected using separate MSYTs. Future MSYT were the same as existing MSYT except that genetic gain was applied. The table on regeneration activities in managed stands (Table 23) lists the inputs used to produce the MSYTs. Each row describes the stand conditions to be applied to all analysis units in the respective SI range. 5

51 Managed stand yield estimates in the base case are adjusted downward to account for certain operational conditions, such as a less-than-ideal distribution of trees, the presence of small non-productive areas and endemic pests and diseases. In the base case, two operational adjust factors (OAF) were applied: an OAF-1 of 15 percent and an OAF-2 of 5 percent, which are the default modelling assumptions in TSR. In 213 to 215, the district staff collected 644 samples from 61 cut blocks using the procedure from the Report 2 OAF1 Project Forest Renewal BC. The data was collected for a cross section of blocks as part of the stewardship staff surveys (FREP, PITA and incremental surveys) post free growing. 41 of the blocks (484 samples) were for blocks with Fdc as the leading species with a range of site indexes ranging from 2 to 42. A further ten blocks has Ba as the leading species in the lower site indexes. The results for Fdc leading blocks have an average OAF1 of.3% with 39 of the 41 blocks having % for the OAF1. For the Ba leading species blocks, the results were 3.7% OAF1 with 8 of the 1 blocks having % OAF1. 51

52 9. Analysis Results Spatial Timber Supply Model The purpose of this analysis was to examine both the short- and long-term timber harvesting opportunities in the Fraser TSA under current forest management practices. A timber supply model, as distinct from a growth and yield model, assists the timber supply analyst in determining how an entire forest (collection of stands) could be managed to obtain a harvest forecast (supply of timber over time). The simulation model uses information about the timber harvesting land base, timber volumes, and the management practices to represent how forests grow and are harvested over hundreds of years. A spatial timber supply model (STSM) developed using the Spatially Explicit Landscape Event Simulator (SELES verion 4) was used for this analysis. SELES was developed by Fall and Fall (1996). SELES is a high-level language that was created for the purpose of facilitating spatial and temporal modelling. A spatial timber supply model patterned after the Forest Service Simulator (FSSim) was created using SELES by Dr. Andrew Fall in collaboration with the FAIB. The basic model has been benchmarked against FSSim. SELES allows for modelling of the spatial relationships among areas (e.g., adjacency), as well as control of the size and shape of spatial units such as harvest units and reserve areas. SELES is a raster, or grid-based modelling language, and the spatial input files for the timber supply analysis were created at a one hectare pixel size with linear features such as roads and riparian areas* being captured as the per cent of the pixel. Hence, the approximate spatial location of road and riparian networks could be tracked. Similar to other models, STSM assumes that trees grow according to specified yield projections and are harvested according to either a volume target or a specified objective set by the analyst. The model also allows the use of forest cover guidelines that specify the desired age composition of the forest. These guidelines can be used to examine the effects of cutblock adjacency and green-up* prescriptions. For example, guidelines might specify that no more than some maximum percentage of the forest can be younger than a specified green-up age or height, or that some minimum percentage of the forest must be in older age classes to provide wildlife habitat. The simulation model facilitates examination of the effects of such guidelines on timber supply. This type of analysis is used to determine the timber supply implications of a particular management regime. The results of the analysis are especially important in determining allowable cuts that will not restrict options of future resource managers, and that will assist local FLNR offices to administer their programs according to relevant guidelines and principles. However, the results of the analysis are not meant to be taken as recommendations of any particular AAC or any particular spatial pattern of harvest on the landscape. Finding the Base Case Forecast The following is a brief summary of the forecasts generated in order to find the base case harvest request. 1. First try the TSR3 Volume Request As shown below the TSR3 base case cannot be achieved (long-term). The model falls well short of the TSR3 long-term because Future Managed Stand AU s are assigned using Provincial SI layer while in TSR3a SIA adjustment was applied. The SIA moved AUs (initial to managed) into much high productivity classes, see below (TSR3 managed stands AU are dark blue). FAIB site productivity researcher recommends application of the Provincial Site Index estimates in the base case. 52

53 annual harvest Million m³ Growing Stock (m3) Millions VolHarvestedAnnual TSR Total THLB Growing Stock Available Growing Stock Total THLB Growing Stock Year Figure 29 Forecast with TSR3 volume request - Fraser TSA 2. Find the flat line harvest request that can be met. Since the above request failed in the long-term, try a flat line above the current AAC: around 1.3M m³/year annual harvest Million m³ VolHarvestedAnnual TSR3 growing Stock Million m³ Basecase Total Growing Stock Available Growing Stock Figure 3 Forecast with non-declining harvest request - Fraser TSA 3. Refine by moving harvest request down to get a sustainable level that generates a flat LT GWS. The non-declining level that generates a flat long-term GWS is 1.26M m³/year (current AAC is 1.24M m³/year) 53

54 Figure 31 Forecast with sustainable non-declining harvest request - Fraser TSA 54

55 annual harvest in million cubic metres Base case Forecast The Fraser TSA analysis was conducted using the Spatial Timber Supply Model (STSM) that operates within SELES: A Spatially Explicit Landscape Event Simulator. Since the forest inventory was updated for depletions to the end of 212, the first year of the projection is 213. The base case has a sustained harvest of 1.26 million cubic metres per year net of non-recovered losses. This is 1.7% higher than the current AAC of million m3 and 1% lower than the AAC determined in 24, 1.27 million m³. The long-term harvest in the base case forecast is 17% lower than the long-term harvest level in the TSR3 forecast. The lower long-term level is due to reduced site productivity estimates for managed stands. Figure E.32: The base case harvest level compared to the previous TSR3 (24) base case harvest level for the Fraser TSA Base case Annual Harvest Level.2 Previous (TSR3) BaseCase Annual Harvest Level years from 213 Figure 33 Basecase forecast - Fraser TSA In addition to conifer stands, the base case includes harvest from deciduous (alder-leading) stands which initiates at 1, cubic metres per year and declines to 74 cubic metres per year 55

56 annual harvest in million cubic metres Figure 34 shows the two transitions that are instrumental in defining the timber supply in the Fraser TSA harvest from currently young managed stands (<45 yrs) & future managed stands harvest from currently thrifty-aged stands harvest from currently old stands (>=115y).2 years from 213 Figure 34 Harvest contribution from old stands and existing, thrifty-aged and young managed stands Fraser TSA base case, 214 Currently, the majority of harvesting in the TSA occurs in second-growth stands. The base case applies a constraint on the harvest of conifer stands that are at least 115 years old. The volume from these stands is limited to 4 percent of the total harvest (516, m³/year). This amount is consistent with proportion of old-conifer volume scaled in the TSA between 25 and 214 as illustrated in the figure below 56

57 The percentage of conifer volume billed from the Fraser TSA within Selling Price Zone groups (SPZ). SPZ-52 (green) is second-growth; and SPZ 5 et. al. (orange) is older timber Figure 35 Percentage of conifer volume billed from the Fraser TSA The forecast is particularly sensitive to the constraint on old harvest. If more old growth is harvested in the short-term the non-declining level can be increased. Old forest harvesting is projected to continue for the next 5 to 6 years. After years the forecast is almost entirely dependent on second-growth stands which are defined as stands currently at or below 115 years of age. The figure below shows the mean harvest age and mean volume per hectare harvested in the base case forecast. Figure 36 Mean harvest age and volume mean harvest yield over time Fraser TSA base case, 215 Stands are prioritized for harvesting in the model based on merchantable volume, where stands with the highest ratio of merchantable volume / minimum harvest volume are assigned the highest priority. 57

58 growing Stock in million cubic metres annual area harvested in hectares 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Annual area harvested 5 - years from 213 Figure 37 Annual area harvested over time Fraser TSA base case, 215. The area harvested is generally about 18 hectares per year over the short and medium terms and about 24 hectares per year over the long term. Projected volume harvested in the short and medium term averages about 7 cubic metres per hectare and 6 cubic metres in the long term. The change in total growing stock and available growing stock is illustrated in Figure E Basecase Total Growing Stock 1 Available Growing Stock years from 213 Figure 38 Changes in timber growing stock over time Fraser TSA base case, 215 The current standing inventory on the THLB is about 74 million cubic metres. The stock is projected to decline slightly to a medium-term average of about 71 million cubic metres before rising in 15 years from now to stabilize at about 77 million cubic metres. The available growing stock is the portion of total growing stock that meets merchantability and is free of any modelling constraint. The total growing stock increases in the long term as old growth is converted to faster growing second growth. 58

59 Area in Hectares Area in Hectares Area in Hectares Area in Hectares Area in Hectares Age Distribution Over Time 8 7 Year of the Forecast Non-THLB THLB Stand Age in Years 8 7 Year 1 of the Forecast Non-THLB Series Stand Age in Years 9 8 Year 5 of the Forecast Non-THLB 7 Series Stand Age in Years 8 7 Year 15 of the Forecast Series3 Series Stand Age in Years 8 7 Time 25 of the Forecast with maximum harvest and no VQO Values Non-THLB 6 Values THLB Stand Age in Years Figure 39 Forest age-class distribution over time - Fraser TSA Some stands are not harvested. This is partly due to constraints and priority rules, however there is a subset of stands that don t meet merchantability criteria in the forecast (see left no-vqo forecast). Many of these stands are old deciduous leading. Also, some low volume stands are continually placed lower in the harvest que which is based primarily on merchantable volume. Figure 4 Map showing the number of times logged -Fraser TSA 59

60 Alder Not Logged dist. by AU Hw < 12m SI Ss/Pl/Ot 6 Figure 41 Not harvested stands - Fraser TSA

61 annual harvest million cubic metres growing Stock million cubic metres Alternative harvest flow In the base case forecast, stands were sequenced for harvesting based on merchantable volume. Higher volume stands were harvested first. The base case is an even flow forecast at the highest level with a sustainable long-term growing stock, 1.26 million cubic metres per year, which is 1.7% higher than the current AAC of million cubic metres. An alternative to the base case has a higher initial harvest level of 1.35 million cubic metres (7% above the current AAC) which was maintained for 13 years before declining to a long-term level 3% higher than the base case. To maintain a higher short-term level the model must harvest more lower-volume stands. The mean VPH harvested is 5.5% below the base case, the mean area harvested is 13% higher than the base case and the growing stock is lower. The small long-term increase is a benefit of converting more low-site stands early in the forecast Alternative flow.4 Base Case.2 even flow at 1.35M m³ BC Total THLB Growing Stock BC Available Growing Stock 1 Alt. THLB Growing Stock Alt. Available Growing Stock years from 213 years from 213 Figure 42 Alternative harvest flow versus the base case forecast, Fraser TSA The flexibility in short-term harvest levels demonstrated by the sensitivity analysis is reduced if other assumption changes are made. These include: - land base removal (difficult operating areas/ cultural zones) - spatial adjacency applied - reduced hemlock/balsam contribution - reduced rate-of-harvest in old forest - partitioning of THLB 61

62 annual harvest in million cubic metres Key Issue: Harvest of Old Stands Currently, the majority of harvesting in the TSA occurs in second-growth stands. In the base case, the oldstand harvest level (stands >=115 years old) is limited to 4% of the total cur because harvest performance in these stands has been declining and currently is about 4% of the cut, according to HBS. SPZ 2 is a proxy for Second Growth harvest Figure 43 Historic harvest profile, SPZ - Fraser TSA harvest from currently young managed stands (<45 yrs) & future managed stands harvest from currently thrifty-aged stands harvest from currently old stands (>=115y).2 years from 213 Figure 44 Harvest contribution from old stands and existing, thrifty-aged and young managed stands Fraser TSA base case, 214Fraser TSA 62