Overview of tools, data and approaches IIASA

Transcription

1 Kick-Off Meeting May, INPE, SJC, Brazil Overview of tools, data and approaches IIASA Florian Kraxner Ecosystems Services and Management Program

2 The ESM Tool Cluster Agriculture (GEPIC) Economic Modeling (GLOBIOM) Forestry (G4M) Engineering Models Geographic allocation or downscaling Globally consistent National /Sector Models System Dynamics Models Uncertainty & risk assessment Policy Interaction

3 Parameters exchanged between the different models of the modeling framework Model linkage EPIC GLOBIOM [14, 15] Parameters exchanged For 20 crops (>75per cent of harvested area) and 4 management systems (high input, low input, irrigated, subsistence) - crop yields - water balance (including irrigation water) - carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus balance G4M GLOBIOM [16, 17] - Mean annual increment - Share of biomass suitable for sawnwood - Harvesting cost - Carbon stock in forests POLES (or other energy model) GLOBIOM + G4M [19] POLES (or other energy model) GLOBIOM [19] GLOBIOM G4M [12, 13] - Population projections - GDP projections - Bioenergy demand (fuel wood, biomass for energy industry, biofuels) - Wood price projections - Land price projections - Agricultural commodity price projections - Demand for forest biomass by type 3

4 Bottom up Approach Expl. Agriculture - EPIC Bio-physical impactsof agricultural land use management systems (EU25) on Crop Selection Crop Management Crop Yields Soil Organic Carbon 'Direct'N2O-N emissions 'Indirect'N2O-N emissions CO2 Emissions/Sequestr. biomass production (e.g. miscanthus and poplar coppice) 9555 HRUs

5 Model Input Data Needs (preliminary) 5

6 Motivation Yield Changes Relative Difference in Means (2050/2100) in Wheat Yields [Data: Tyndall, Afi Scenario, simulation model: EPIC]

7 Motivation Uncertainty in Yields Relative Difference in Variances (2050/2100) in Wheat Yields [Data: Tyndall, Afi Scenario, simulation model: EPIC]

8 Global Forest Model G4M NPP Forest Cover Temperature Precipitation Soil Estimated NPP

9 Model Input Data Needs (preliminary) 9

10 REDD Avoiding Deforestation Forest Area Development A2r

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12 I. GLOBIOM Global Biosphere Management Model Basic resolution: 28 regions 12

13 I. GLOBIOM: Supply chains Unmanaged Forest Wood Processing Forest products: Sawnwood Woodpulp Managed Forest Short Rotation Tree Plantations Bioenergy Processing Energy products: Ethanol (1 st gen.) Biodiesel (1 st gen.) Ethanol (2 nd gen) Methanol Heat Cropland Crops: Barley Corn Cotton 13 Grassland Other Natural Vegetation Livestock Production Livestock: Cattle meat & milk Sheep & Goat meat & milk Pork meat Poultry meat & egg

14 14 Cumulative land-use change under the BAU scenario

15 15 Cumulative loss of area of unmanaged forest in different regions under the BAU scenario

16 GHG emissions from total land use under the different scenarios 16

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18 Geo-wiki makes GEO data easy to visualize and analyze. Volunteers from around the globe can input their agreement/ disagreement with the existing data GEOSS in action: Geo-Wiki registered on the Geo- Portal A bunch of projects: landcover, agriculture, biomass, urban, regional, etc 18

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21 21 Onboard biomass datasets

22 Onboard biomass datasets Above Ground Live Biomass Region Base year Resolution Provider Object, units Method Global min IIASA Forest, Mg dm/ha FAO data downscaling by RS Europe km IIASA Forest, Mg dm/ha Russia km IIASA Vegetation, Mg dm/ha FAO data downscaling by RS and forest maps National forest & land statistics downscaling by RS USA m WHRC Vegetation, Mg dm/ha Landsat + Forest Inventory Tropical Africa km WHRC Forest Woody Biomass Woody biomass, Mg dm/ha MODIS + field measurements Europe m Joanneum Research Growing Stock, m3/ha MODIS + forest inventory Russia km IIASA Sweden 2005 Central Siberia 2005 Mexico 2008 Quebec 2005 Northern Eurasia 0.01 Gamma Remote Sensing; Friedrich Schiller Univ. Jena In Situ Forest Biomass Measurements Growing Stock, m3/ha Growing Stock, m3/ha Region Base year Provider Parameters National forest & land statistics downscaling by RS ENVISAT ASAR, MODIS VCF IIASA Main tree species, Tree height, Above ground live biomass, Stem biomass, Coarse woody debris 22

23 For Questions and comments please contact 23