How Resilient are Arctic Social- Ecological Systems to Global Change?

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1 How Resilient are Arctic Social- Ecological Systems to Global Change? Gary Kofinas, University of Alaska Fairbanks Matt Berman, University of Alaska Anchorage Brad Griffith, USGS / University of Alaska Fairbanks Gennady Belchanski, Russian Academy of Science David Douglas, US Geological Survey Bruce Forbes, Arctic Centre Konstantin Klokov, St Petersburg State University Leonid Kolpashikov, Extreme North Agricultural Research Institute Stephanie Martin, University of Alaska Anchorage Craig Nicolson, University of Massachusetts Don Russell, Environment Canada

2 Our Project: Heterogeneity and Resilience of Human-Rangifer Systems: A Circumpolar Social-Ecological Synthesis Goals: Improve understanding of the relative adaptability and resilience of regional Human- Rangifer Systems to the forces for global change Derive generalized propositions about their functional properties as critical aspects of the Arctic System. = Range of Rangifer = Calving grounds = Domestic herds Yamal Taimyr Western Arctic Teshekpuk Central Barrens Porcupine

3 Common assumptions A Fragile Arctic Ecosystem?

4 A Fragile Arctic Ecosystem?

5 Common assumptions Highly Adaptable Indigenous Northerners

6 Resilience defined at the regional scale the degree to which regional arctic social systems and ecosystems can adapt to diverse and changing regional conditions without loss of basic governing properties, while enabling rangifer to continue to provide a primary means of support for the local population. (after Walker et al 2004)

7 Figure 2: Subcomponents in the Study of Human-Rangifer Systems Global and regional climate patterns Changing land use, economic markets, Ecological Process Tundra Loss; NDVI; animal energetics; reproductive success) Socioeconomic Process Subsistence; commercial use; markets; life styles policy feedback Institutional process local-to-regional linkages; responsiveness; reactions to risk and uncertainty; emergence of innovation

8 Many Human-Rangifer Systems of the North 1 Newfoundland 31 Western Queen Elizabeth Islands 2 Boreal 32 Banks Island 3 Atlantic 33 Northwest Victoria Island 4 Southern Mountain 34 Dolphin-Union 5 Northern Mountain 35 Chukotka 6 Yukon 36 Sudrunskaya 7 Alaska 37 Yana-Indigirka 8 George River 38 Novosibiriski Ostrova 9 Leaf River 39 Lena-Olenek 10 Qamanirjuaq 40 Taimyr 11 Beverly 41 Severnaya Zemlia 12 Ahiak 42 Gydan 13 Bathurst 43 Belyi 14 Bluenose East 44 Novaya Zemlia 15 Bluenose West 45 Svalbard 16 Cape Bathurst 46 Parapolskii 17 Porcupine 47 Kamchatka 18 Central Arctic 48 Amur 19 Teshekpuk 49 Okhotsk 20 Western Arctic 50 Yakutsk 21 South Baffin Island 51 Evenkiya 22 Coats Island 52 Nadym-Pur (Yamal Okrug) 23 Southampton Island 53 Arkhangelsk Oblast 24 Lorillard 54 Terskii Bereg (Kola) 25 Wager Bay 55 Laplandskii Zapovednik (Kola) 26 North Baffin Island 56 Range of Forest Reindeer 27 Northeast Baffin Island 57 Finland 28 Eastern Queen Elizabeth Islands 58 Norway 29 Bathurst Island 59 Iceland 30 Prince of Wales-Somerset-Boothia 60 Greenland

9 Heterogeneity of Human-Rangifer Systems

10 Fig. 1a ACIA Regional heterogeneity in forces for change

11 Regional heterogeneity in forces for change (Nellemann et al. 2001)

12 National Policy Change xc1000 Harvesting of Wild Reindeer in Russia

13 Comparative Studies in Co-management: Regimes of North America Multi-stakeholder cooperative management Co-management through land claims Short term recovery team International and Canadian co-management agreements Ad hoc planning group Long-standing formal co-management Fractured management

14 Example of Social-Ecological Regime Shifts Pre- Perestroika Post- Perestroika

15 Conflict areas between wild and domestic rangifer of the Taimyr (Klokov 2002)

16 Commercial caribou hunts In Canadian Arctic = Meat processing facility = Large-scale Community Hunts Agencies: Dept of Resources, Wildlife and Economic Development; Health and Social Services; Agricultural and Agrifood Canada Co-management Boards and local HTAs NWT s Special Committee on North Economy (SCONE) Current commercial activities Led to DevCorp Responsibility for meat marketing within and outside of Canadian Arctic Institutional constraints (adapted from Dragon 2002)

17 Ecological Heterogeneity North American caribou herd sizes

18 Sea ice NDVI (green-up) relationship

19 Swamp calvers Lichen calvers

20 Towards a Synthesis Steps: 1. Conduct a retrospective analysis of change in our case study regions to understand driving factors and internal processes; 2. Conduct comparative analysis of regional case studies to understand heterogeneity and its implications to resilience and vulnerability, 3. Develop rule-based simulation models for exploring system dynamics.