Climate challenges for SE Europe Hungary: what is happening?

Transcription

1 Climate challenges for SE Europe Hungary: what is happening?

2 Presentation structure 1. Climatic challenges: what is happening? 2. Impacts: what do we see already? observed and expected impacts 3. Adaptation: what to do? 4. Mitigation: does it count?

3 1990 vs 2090 Why South and Southeast Europe?

4

5 Mean annual temperature

6 Mean annual temperature

7 Mean annual temperature

8 Spatial distribution of the drought probability projected for the 21st century A1B scenario. Unit: number of droughts; dp [%]: relative precipitation anomaly

9 2. Impacts Observed impacts on forests Abiotic damages Insect damage in forests Growth and increment change Succession/degradation Effects on groundwater-dependent forests

10 Reported damage (in hectares) caused by windthrow in Hungary between 1963 and 2008

11 May 2011 / G. Pápai

12 Északerdő ZRt. Pilisi Parkerdő ZRt.

13 Fotó: Gemenc ZRt

14 Reported drought damage (in hectares) in Hungary between 1961 and 2008

15 Groundwater level sinking in the central Great Plains (Ladánybene) 1951 to 2006 (Source: Szalai, 2006)

16 Ugly face of trailing limit: spruce in West Hungary Őrség, 2007 (fotó: Szép T.) 15

17 Climate selection in a sessile oak forest, NE Hungary (fotó: Csóka. Gy)

18 Z.egerszeg-Csács, 2010

19 Buprestid damage (Agrilus viridis), Zalaegerszeg Area :2003: 1200 ha 2004: 4000 ha Sanitary felling: 105 tsd. btto. m 3 Fotó Rasztovits E.

20 Vastagfa (m3) Össz.Vastagfa EÜ Vastagfa EÜ-ből FE Vfa Év Ratio of salvage fellings out of total, Szombathely State Forest Co (T. Szép 2007)

21 Observed and expected impacts Genetic diversity change Declining vitality and mortality Changes in plant and animal species diversity Shift of community structure and composition of forest ecosystems (degradation, migration) Climate-triggered shift of forest belts Carbon sequestration change

22 A. Borovics - C. Mátyás: Decline of genetic diversity of sessile oak at the retracting (xeric) limits. Ann For Sci 2013, DOI: /s

23 Number of gene variants (alleles) at SKDH locus, vs. Precipitation Borovics Mátyás 2013, Ann For Sci

24 Mean height of sessile oak over age before 1990 (red) and after 1990 (green) 95% probability (dashed lines) (data of permanent yield plots, Somogyi 2007).

25 Growth and increment: acceleration? inventory: Tree growth was found to have accelerated Sessile oak permanent yield plots: decrease in height at higher age Genetic field tests: clear decline with warming

26 Carbon sequestration of zonal stand types and climate change

27 Number of new species Decades Alien forest insects by decades of their first appearance in Hungary Since 1991: more species than in the whole century!!

28 Succession/degradation following no-interference Effect of severity of climatic change on the species composition in the reserve Síkfőkút, a Turkey and sessile oak mixed forest (Kotroczó et al. 2007) Qp = Quercus petraea, Qc = Quercus cerris, Ac = Acer campestre, At = Acer tataricum, Ca = Cerasus avium, Cb = Carpinus betulus

29 summer mean temperature (C) Climate-triggered shift of forest belts 24,0 23,0 22,0 21,0 20,0 19,0 18,0 17,0 16,0 15,0 14,0 250,0 300,0 350,0 400,0 450,0 500,0 550,0 mean precipitation of the growing season [mm] Climate parameters (mean precipitation of the growing season vs. mean summer temperature) of actual beech occurrences in Hungary (black) and parameters calculated with the Prudence climate model for 2050 (grey) (data by E. Rasztovits)

30 Change of climate favourable for beech in course of a century: shift of contour line EQ 24, mean of the years: (green) and (red) (design: Rasztovits, Móricz, 2009)

31 3. Adaptation: what to do? Accepting active interference (forestry, conservation) Rethinking inherent dogmas (perfection of natural processes, stability, sustainability) Introducing proper technologies Adjusting strategies, guidelines Research and vulnerability assessment (modelling) Education: professional and public awareness

32 4. Mitigation Expected production and carbon sequestration of forests: carbon sink role threatened? Feedback of forest cover on regional climate: possibilities of drought reduction! The role of wood and wood processing in climate effect mitigation Carbon stored in wood products Percentage of timber homes: 30% in Austria vs. 0.8% in Hungary Wood as source of energy: a contradicting issue

33 Thanks for attention

34 Education: where are we now? Impacts: contradicting results, debated Adaptation: better developed some institutions started with education: e.g. application of scenarios in forest mgmt. Conflict: forestry vs natural processes? Mitigation: few traces of educational preparation: fast changes due to energy cost rises Forestry possibilities: energetics (also biofuels), emission reduction, developments in wood industry Importance of traditional and urban forestry growing!

35 Educational challenges of climate change Basic sciences: Climatology: interpretation of scenarios; feedback of forest cover Physiology: mechanisms and symptoms of stress Genetics: microevolution vs. spontaneous effects Plant science, zoology: effects on communities, succession, human influence Ecology: cycling of: carbon, water, nutrients Site/soil science: carbon pool, soil capacity, zonality Hydrology: landscape level dynamics of groundwater resources