Quammen Excerpt (Song of the Dodo) Walther et al Phenology and Climate Change Marmontel et al (PVA Manatee) Gilpin 1996 (PVA commentary)

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1 Lecture 14, 08 Oct 2009 Biodiversity Threats con t PVA Conservation Biology ECOL 406R/506R University of Arizona Fall 2009 Kevin Bonine Mary Jane Epps 506 meet in BSE129 9am Wed (21 Oct) Sarah P. Descriptive file names for essays please. Readings -Thank Robichaux Primack parts of Ch 4-6 Harper et al Habitat Loss -Thank Swann (lab) Quammen Excerpt (Song of the Dodo) Walther et al Phenology and Climate Change Marmontel et al (PVA Manatee) Gilpin 1996 (PVA commentary) Lab Friday-Sunday October (1pm northwest corner BSE) 1 Q3 - Due by 6am Friday 09 October to MJ as.doc attachment. Craft two letters, each a page in length, to one or more of your political representatives. The first letter should focus on the theme of externalities. Convince your representative(s) that more explicit consideration of externalities is good for people, the economy, and the environment. The second letter should be about invasive species. What do you want your representative(s) to know about invasive species and what do you want them to do with respect to invasive species? Although these are letters, we still want you to include one or more citations in each. The best letters will be organized, clear, and persuasive. 2 1

2 Quiz, 08 October 2009 Please be concise. 1. Name and Date (1 pt) 2. What did Robichaux mean when saying that his work was helping to prepare for Loi hi? (2 pts) 3. What aspect of amphibian conservation were Harper et al. addressing in their paper? (They focused on a frog species and a salamander species.) (2 pts) 4. Briefly, what is meant by effective population size? (2 pts) 5. You read a couple of PVA papers for today. What does PVA mean? (1 pt) 6. How is understanding phenology important to conservation biology if global climate is indeed changing? (2 pts) 3 Global Climate Change Predicted change by

3 A U.S. Geological Survey report released in November 2006 indicated that the Beaufort Sea polar bear population has experienced a significant drop in cub survival. The study also determined that adult males weighed less and had smaller skulls than those captured and measured two decades ago. In recent years, winter sea ice has fallen by at least 600,000 square miles, double the size of Texas. Ursus maritimus 5 Global Climate Change PHENOLOGY (4&5) Reserves & Protected Areas? [TSD?] Nail in Coffin? 6 3

4 7 PHENOLOGY 8 4

5 synergy 9 Threats to Biodiversity Habitat Loss destruction, fragmentation, degradation Global Climate Change Overexploitation Invasives Disease Extinction 10 5

6 Extinction Risk 11 6 th? Extinction Risk 12 6

7 Extinction Risk Extinct (vs. Extant) Extinct in the Wild Ecologically Extinct Locally Extinct Extirpated Vulnerable, Threatened, ENDANGERED 13 3 step loss of biodiversity (Rosenzweig) 1. Endemics 2. Sink populations 3. Stochasticity 14 Van Dyke

8 Modelling Extinction Risk 15 Amphibians Extinction Risk 1. Wetland Habitat 2. Terrestrial Habitat Harper et al wood frog (Rana sylvatica) & spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) 16 8

9 Clean Water Act 1. Connected? 2. Navigable? Extinction Risk Harper et al State Laws and Buffers = 30m in Massachusetts Need 290m (salamander) or 1000m (frog)? 17 Modelling Extinction Risk Harper et al All models are wrong, some models are useful. Data! Life History Stages Life Tables Demographics Habitat needs Habitat quality Stochasticity (e.g., hydroperiod) 18 9

10 Harper et al Modelling Extinction Risk Harper et al Why only model females? Age of first reproduction? Life span? Clutch size? Fecundity? Model Robustness (many iterations with different parameter values) 20 10

11 Modelling Extinction Risk Harper et al All models are wrong, some models are useful. Data! -Density (& Carrying Capacity [K]) -Ecology (study of distribution and abundance of organisms) -Natural History 21 Harper et al Frog Modelling Extinction Risk (20 years out) Salamander 22 11

12 Other Considerations/Conclusions Harper et al To maintain (95% probability over 20 years) salamander populations need m buffer (habitat size) and less than 5% decrease in adult mortality (habitat quality). Frogs more reliant on immigration (and habitat!) 23 Other Considerations/Conclusions Metapopulations Immigration/Extinction Habitat Degradation vs. Loss Harper et al Need Habitat and Connectivity Longer life-span relies on greater adult survivorship Ecoystem Complexity, Links 24 12

13 Paradigms In Conservation 1- Island Biogeography 2- Metapopulations 3- Habitat Heterogeneity 4- Disturbance 5- Genetic Diversity (MVP, PVA, Small Populations) 25 Biogeographic Realms Holarctic Gondwana (Pangaea) 26 Zug et al

14 1. Island Biogeography Quammen Excerpt from Song of the Dodo (p.52-55) Lyell Wallace Darwin MacArthur Wilson Frogs vs. Birds dispersal Oceanic vs. Continental succession Size, Age, Distance ~equilibrium 27 Dispersal Tarbuck and Lutgens 1999 Vicariance 28 14

15 Islands, especially Continental, affected by: - Plate tectonics - Climate (glaciation, drought) -Sea level Connectivity Pough et al Equilibrium Theory of Island Biogeography VanDyke

16 Equilibrium Theory of Island Biogeography Habitat Fragmentation Reserve Design Predictions vs. Observations Missing Factors -Rescue Effect -Habitat Suitability -Sink vs. Source -Habitat Heterogeneity -Species Interactions 31 16