Tools for Analysis and Interactive Decision support on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Transcription

1 Tools for Analysis and Interactive Decision support on Biodiversity and Ecosystem ervices Keith Alger Ph.D Vice President, Conservation International Global Change and Ecosystem ervices Center for Applied Biodiversity cience

2 Biodiversity Hotspots and High Biodiversity Wilderness Areas

3 How is biodiversity linked to services for people? Research Agenda 1. Biodiversity existence 2. in ecosystem function in Welfare 3. Additionality 4. Opportunity cost 5. Institutional transparency and effectiveness Methodologies ystematic conservation planning Valuation benchmarks and tools Projection of risk and evaluation of response Integrated development tradeoffs. Monitoring poverty/biodiversity impacts

4 cience on Biodiversity Existence: AZE and KBA ites AZE sites hold the entire remaining population of a Critically Endangered or Endangered species (Ricketts et al. 2005)

5 Key Biodiversity Areas and AZE sites KBAs AZE sites Criteria: Irreplaceability of site Vulnerability - red list status

6 2. Ecosystem function varies over the landscape Articulate payments according to service type, ensure policy coherence Target multiple services including biodiversity Target poverty reduction, add biodiversity. Target Biodiversity first, add poverty reduction

7 3. Additionality from measuring Deforestation Threats: Real emissions reductions? Baseline completed in fall 2006 National CO2 emissions Estimates are country-wide, deforestation only Biomass from aatchi, et al Countr y Forest in 2000 (km2) Deforestation '90 - ' 00 (km2 y-1) CO2 emission s (x1000 t y-1) Bolivia 459,700 1,507 14,969 Colom bia 578,395 1,440 14,785 Ecuad or 119, ,662 Peru 883, ,880 Venez uela 258, ,194 With DU

8 4. Opportunity costs in participatory landuse planning Aceh Deforestation ( ) and Oil Palm Value Wong, G., and D. Juhn, 2007 CAB working paper

9 Can low opportunity cost land conserving biodiversity also include large scale development benefit?

10 CGE estimates impact on entire Brazilian Economy (Pattanayak et. al.) cenario without Forest Conservation GDP is lower by $5.73 billion/ yr. 30M ha Deforested Effects in Year 2015 Climate Change (Morbidity Impacts + Deforestation) GDP -0.68% Inves tment -1.19% Exports -0.96% Imports -0.62% Consumption Rural 3.50% Urban -0.73% Wage Rate Rural 1.40% Urban 0.22% Labor Earnings Rural -1.27% Urban -0.60% Output Agriculture -1.06% Energy -0.55% Food -0.56% Forestry/W ood -0.76% Manufacturing -0.91% ervices -0.69% Hectares (change) million cenario with Forest Conservation Effects in Year 2015 Conservation Forests (Lower Morbidity Impacts + ustain Forestry) GDP 0.06% Inves tment 0.33% Exports 0.15% Imports 0.15% Consumption Rural -3.81% Urban 0.34% Wage Rate Rural -0.66% Urban 0.08% Labor Earnings Rural 0.60% Urban -0.01% Output Agriculture 0.32% Energy 0.08% Food 0.00% Fores try/w ood 0.17% Manufacturing 0.17% ervices 0.04% Hectares (change) million GDP is higher by $474 million/ yr 20M ha. Increase in Forest protected.

11 Interactive Awareness and Decision upport Tools: ARIE, IBAT What ecosystem service is in my back yard? Indicators: 1. Valuation studies 2. Indigenous languages 3. Livelihood studies 4. PE projects Developers: Puneet Kishor,Katrina Brandon, Maggie Holland

12 Integrated Biodiversity Assessment Tool (IBAT)

13 ARIE sophisticated framework

14 ARIE: Illustrative preview

15 5. Do local biodiversity conservation groups improve transparency? What is distributional impact on poor and indigenous? Preliminary results, from CEPF partners, are that: Conservation funding of local NGOs goes to the most remote, impoverished, and ungoverned places in these countries Transparency of logging and mining reduces natural resource financing of civil conflict Capacity built in place contributes to empowerment of indigenous and local communities. NGO capacity enables costs of local externalities to be weighed in globalized development projects