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1 California Landscape Conservation Cooperative Webinar Series CaliforniaLCC.org Today s guest presenter Helen Regan, University of California, Riverside Topic: Decision support for climate change adaptation and fire management strategies for at risk species in Southern California For audio, please call: Passcode: # Webinar will begin shortly. Please mute your phone. June 26, 2013

2 Collaborators Alexandra Syphard (CBI): fire, urban growth, SDMs Janet Franklin (ASU): fire, SDMs, plant ecology Tim Bonebrake (HKU): climate change Kurt Anderson (UCR): population modeling Clark Winchell (USFWS): management Toni Mizerek (UCR): research assistance Thanks to: Erin Conlisk, Dawn Lawson, NSF, DOE, CA LCC

3 Global Change and Biodiversity Threats to biodiversity are increasing in number, magnitude and extent Land-use change Altered disturbance regimes Disease Climate change Biodiversity loss Alfredo Sabat African Tsunami

4 Mediterranean-type Ecosystems MTEs support exceptional plant species richness California & Baja Med.Basin MTE biodiversity threatened by multiple landscapescale factors Chile South Africa Global MTEs Australia Global Biodiversity Hotspots

5 Threats to Mediterranean type ecosystems. Disturbance Climate change Land use change 5

6 Land-use Change Syphard et al. (2011) J Env Mgt Southern California population expected to double in the next 50 years from 20 m to 40 m Projected spatial pattern urban footprint 2050 Urban Growth Model (Keith Clarke) SLEUTH % chance of Urban Initial urban extent Non-urban

7 Fire Regime In California, fire size and frequency increasing at Wildland-Urban Interface Fires 25y Syphard, Radeloff et al. 7

8 Climate Change PCM Jan T min Imgrd No Data Jul T max Tmax No Data

9 How will climate change add to other effects of global change? Distribution shifts Distribution contractions Exacerbate habitat loss and fragmentation Further alter fire regimes Rare plants highly susceptible to distribution changes

10 Ceanothus verrucosus Southern California coastal sage scrub (obligate seeder) Live for > 90 yrs Limited dispersal Fire kills plants Soil-stored seed bank needs fire for germination Sensitive to changes in fire regime in conjunction with other threats

11 Threats to Ceanothus verrucosus Habitat fragmentation and loss due to urbanization Small isolated populations

12 Threats to Ceanothus verrucosus Changing fire regimes Increased ignitions from human activities Fire suppression by humans

13 Altered fire regime Short fire return intervals - Risk loss of the seed bank as individuals take 5-7 years to mature and produce seeds Long fire return intervals - Risk of death or senescence of adults and loss of seed viability

14 Threats to Ceanothus verrucosus. Altered fire regime Climate change Urban growth 14

15 Questions I: How do changes in fire frequency affect long-term persistence of C. verrucosus? II: How is urban growth anticipated to affect C. verrucosus? III. How is climate change anticipated to affect C. verrucosus? IV. What can we do about it? Credit: Robin Barber

16 Urban Growth Model Land use projections Dynamic available habitat Dynamic suitable habitat Dynamic habitat patch map Climate projections Species Distribution Model Population Model

17 Climate models NOAA GFDL CM2.1 SRES A2 Medium High Emissions Scenario Predicts hotter and drier climate 36% increase in temperature 26% decrease in precipitation NCAR PCM1 (DOE) SRES A2 Medium High Emissions Scenario 17% increase in temperature 8% increase in precipitation Hotter Drier Bit Hotter Bit Wetter Downscaled to 90 m Cayan et al. (2008); Flint & Flint (2012)

18 1. Effects of Climate Change

19 1. Effects of Climate Change & Urban Growth

20 Population model Age-based matrix model Fecundity and survival based on age Spatially explicit Carrying capacity based on size of plants Stochastic Linked to fire hazard functions Explicit response to fire 100 years, 1000 replications

21 Data sources First & second year seedling survival rates: Thomas and Davis (1989); Keeley et al. (2006) Shrubs age 3-5 years survival rates: Tyler and D Antonio (1995); Thomas and Davis (1989); Frazer and Davis (1988); Odion and Davis (2000); Keeley et al. (2006) Shrubs age > 5 yrs survival rates: Zammit & Zedler 1993 Fecundities: Keeley 1977; Zammit & Zedler 1993; Davey 1982 Germination rates: Tyler and D Antonio (1995); Thomas and Davis (1989); Frazer and Davis (1988); Keeley et al. (2006) Carrying capacity: Zammit & Zedler 1993; unpublished data

22 1. Modeling fire Average fire return intervals 10, 20,, 80 yrs Unplanned fires: Weibull function λ( t) = ct b c 1 (c=1.42 for chaparral) (Polakow et al. 1999; Moritz 2003) c

23 Coupled SDM-Population Model Species Distribution & Urban growth models CEVE locations, Climate Variables Habitat Suitability Map Current Future Population Model 23

24 Fire, climate & urban growth 6000 a) GFDL climate scenario EMA (Thousands) No habitat change Urban GFDL GFDL+Urban Average Fire Return Interval (Years)

25 Fire, climate & urban growth 6000 c) PCM climate scenario EMA (Thousands) No habitat change PCM Urban PCM+Urban Average Fire Return Interval (Years)

26 What can we do about it?: Reserves 6000 a) GFDL climate scenario EMA (Thousands) No habitat change Urban+Reserv e Urban GFDL GFDL+Urb+ Reserve GFDL+Urban Average Fire Return Interval (Years)

27 What can we do about it?: Reserves 6000 c) PCM climate scenario EMA (Thousands) No habitat change Urban+Reserv e PCM Urban PCM+Urb+Res erve PCM+Urban Average Fire Return Interval (Years)

28 1. What can we do about it?: Managed relocation Highly Controversial Against Potential for invasion/alteration of communities May not address root cause of extinction Takes funds away from managing other threats May hasten extinction Uncertainty Creepy? For Regional translocation only Simulates dispersal that would have occurred naturally Benefits outweigh risks Already occurring unregulated

29 1. Current suitable habitat

30 1. Effects of Climate Change

31 1. Managed relocation: seedlings vs seeds EMA (Thousands) c) PCM & % seedlings No translocation 2% translocation 5% translocation 10% translocation 50% translocation d) PCM; 2% seeds No translocation 2% seeds, 2 yrs 2% seeds, 6 yrs 2% seeds, 10 yrs Average Fire Return Interval (Years) Average Fire Return Interval (Years) 3500 e) PCM; 10% seeds No translocation 3500 f) PCM; 50% seeds No translocation EMA (Thousands) % seeds, 2 yrs 10% seeds, 6 yrs 10% seeds, 10 yrs % seeds, 2 yrs 50% seeds, 6 yrs 50% seeds, 10 yrs Average Fire Return Interval (Years) Average Fire Return Interval (Years)

32 1. Conclusions: fire frequency Optimal average fire return interval years 10 year fire return intervals resulted in unacceptable declines Very frequent fire has by far the greatest effect on population viability Somewhat protected from highrecurrence fires because of its location

33 1. Conclusions: habitat loss Urban growth worse than climate change for PCM (habitat increased under PCM) Climate change worse than urban growth for GFDL Major declines in population size under CC and urban growth Limited dispersal means plants can t disperse to suitable habitat under novel climate

34 1. Conclusions: management No option made up for population decline due to habitat loss (CC or urban growth) GFDL: seedling translocation more effective than reserve PCM: reserve more effective than seedling translocation 10 to 50% seed translocation surpassed both seedling translocation and reserve (but not by much)

35 1. Conclusions: management Uncertainty in location of future suitable habitat poses problem for managed relocation This study highlights the importance of the San Diego MSCP for climate change adaptation No spatial management strategy is effective under frequent fire Integrated management approaches are necessary & field/lab experiments

36 California Landscape Conservation Cooperative Webinar Series CaliforniaLCC.org Thank you for joining us. A recorded version of this webinar will be available on our website in about a week. If you have questions about the webinar, contact Rebecca Fris at June 26, 2013