OBIN. Off Grid Business Indicator World

Transcription

1 OBIN Off Grid Business Indicator 2014 World

2 OBIN Global Off Grid Business Indicator World Copyright 2014 by Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation Cover photo: clipdealer.de This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non profit purposes, without special permission from the copyright holder(s) provided acknowledgement of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or other commercial purpose, without the written permission of the copyright holder(s). Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation Weberstrasse 10, Merzhausen, Germany Contact: solarenergie.org Web: solarenergie.org , Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation

3 Introduction Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation has analyzed overall 66 countries for the Off Grid Business Indicator (OBIN) regarding their potential for off grid business. Detailed information for each country is given in the three editions, published in March 2014: OBIN Africa OBIN South(East)Asia OBIN America The full documents can be downloaded at: connect.org/obin/ The edition "OBIN World" summarizes the results of the three single editions to one global perspective. The information claim not to be exhaustive or of scientific accuracy. This is not possible because of the imprecision and inhomogeneity of the sources of information. However, OBIN is a reliable and realistic indicator for the potential and the general conditions of the off grid market worldwide. OBIN is especially able to demonstrate the great economic potential of this so far largely untapped market Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation April , Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation 3

4 Executive Summary billion people in the surveyed 66 countries do not have access to reliable power supply, with 49% living respectively in Africa and Asia and 2% in America. The surveyed countries in Asia (70.7%) and America (75.9%) are considerably higher electrified than those in Africa (21.8%). Due to the larger population, the absolute number of people without access to power supply in African countries is however almost the same as in Asia (Africa mill.; Asia mill.). 2. The worldwide market potential alone for the replacement of kerosene lamps by simple solar lanterns is USD 18.8 billion. The total market potential for the basic supply of off grid households with light is USD 136 billion. The potential of the off grid market in Africa and Asia is almost equal (Africa USD 68.6 billion; Asia USD billion), although Africa attracts a significant greater attention in the public perception. 3. The world s top five off grid markets are India, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Indonesia, followed by DR Congo, Pakistan, Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda. 4. The Business Environment in 40% of African countries and 31% of Asian countries is below average or even unacceptable. 5. The most problematic factor for business in Africa is the "access to finance", closely followed by "corruption". The ratio in Asia and America is different: "corruption" is here the most problematic factor for business while "access to finance" is ranked on third position , Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation

5 Countries Afghanistan Angola Bangladesh Benin Bhutan Bolivia Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Congo, DR Congo, Rep. Cote d'ivoire Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guinea Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras India Indonesia Kenya Lao PDR Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mongolia Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nepal Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Peru Philippines Rwanda Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia South Afica Sri Lanka Sudan / South Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Timor Leste Togo Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe 2014, Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation 5

6 Population total: 2,965.2 mill. 3% 29% Africa: mill. Asia: 2,021.4 mill. America: 81.6 mill. 68% Rural Population: 1,923.8 mill. 2% 29% Africa: mill. Asia: 1,341.4 mill. America: 30.0 mill. 69% Population Off Grid: 1,211.4 mill. 2% 49% 49% Africa: mill. Asia: mill. America: 19.7 mill , Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation

7 Population On Grid / Off Grid Africa 9% 22% On Grid: mill. Off Grid: mill. On Grid under serviced: 75.6 mill. 69% Asia 29% On Grid: 1,428.4 mill. Off Grid: mill. 71% America 24% On Grid: 61.9 mill Off Grid: 19.7 mill. 76% 2014, Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation 7

8 Households Off Grid + On Grid under serviced: mill. 2% Africa: mill. 48% 50% Asia: mill. America: 5.0 mill. Kerosene lamps (glass cover, simple wick): mill. 2% Africa: mill. 49% 49% Asia: mill. America: 12.1 mill. Mobile cellular subscriptions: 2,179.5 mill. 4% 25% Africa: mill. Asia: 1,556.7 mill. America: 86.0 mill. 71% , Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation

9 Market Potential: Electrification households: US$ 136 bill. 2% Africa: 68,600 mill. 48% 50% Asia: 64,850 mill. America: 2,520 mill. Market Potential: Replacement kerosene lamps: US$ 18.8 bill. 2% Africa: 9,204 mill. 49% 49% Asia: 9,264 mill. America: 363 mill. 2014, Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation 9

10 The 20 biggest markets India Bangladesh Nigeria 78,3 Ethiopia 68,8 Indonesia 63 Congo, DR 58,6 Pakistan 56 Tanzania 38,6 Kenya 34 Uganda 30,4 Sudan / South Sudan 27,9 Myanmar 26 Afghanistan 22 Mozambique 20,7 Madagascar 16,8 Philippines 16 Niger 14,1 Burkina Faso 14,1 Angola 14,1 Malawi 13, OBIN World Off Grid population (mill.) Africa Asia , Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation

11 Business Environment (Countries in alphabetic order) Outstanding Above average Average Below average Unacceptable Africa Botswana South Africa Benin Burkina Faso Cameroon Cote d'ivoire Gabon Ghana Kenya Lesotho Madagascar Malawi Mali Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Swaziland Tanzania Uganda Zambia Angola Burundi Central African Republic Chad Congo, Rep. Ethiopia Gambia Guinea Liberia Mauritania Sierra Leone Togo Zimbabwe Congo, DR Eritrea Asia Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia India Indonesia Pakistan Papua New Guinea Philippines Sri Lanka Lao PDR Nepal Timor Leste Myanmar America Panama Peru Bolivia Guatemala Guyana Honduras Nicaragua Haiti No valuation due to lack of information: Afghanistan, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan 2014, Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation 11

12 The most problematic factors for business Africa Access to financing 29 Corruption 22 Inadequate supply of infrastructure Number of Countries Asia Corruption 10 Inefficient government bureaucracy Access to financing Number of Countries America Corruption Inefficient government bureaucracy 7 7 Access to financing Number of Countries Source of country data: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report , Geneva , Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation

13 Sources - Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation, OBIN. Off Grid Business Indicator Africa, Merzhausen Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation, OBIN. Off Grid Business Indicator South(East) Asia, Merzhausen Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation, OBIN. Off Grid Business Indicator America, Merzhausen Download: connect.org 2014, Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation 13

14 OBIN Off Grid Business Indicator , Stiftung Solarenergie Solar Energy Foundation