Economic Impacts of Climate Change on European forests

Transcription

1 Economic Impacts of Climate Change on European forests Prof. Dr. Marc Hanewinkel University of Freiburg Chair of Forestry Economics and Planning Tennenbacher Straße Freiburg, Germany

2 Why economy matters 2

3 Why economy matters 3

4 Why economy matters 4

5 Structure Introduction Data & Methods Results Pitfalls uncertainties Research Challenges

6 Climate is a major driver of vegetation distribution and plant growth / survival / mortality. Main questions: What are potential future ranges of trees? Economic impacts of range shifts? Impact on overall value of forestland? Hanewinkel, M., Cullmann, D.A., Schelhaas, M.J., Nabuurs, G.-J. Zimmermann, N.E. (2013) Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value of European forest land. Nature Climate Change,3: DOI: /NCLIMATE1687

7 The climate today and tomorrow SRES IPCC Scenarios of global change +5.8 A1FI B2 +1.4

8 Requirements Data & Methods Pan-European tree distribution data Sound design High-resolution climate data (<1km) Climate Projections into future

9 Nature of data 6129 plots ~16km grid 139 tree spp.

10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

11 (1) species distribution water balance heat sum (3) (5) ID Sp1 Tave Prcp Geol X b a Y a (4)P(Sp1) = f (Tave,Prcp,Geol,...) (2) Concept and theory-based variable selection

12 Introduction Data&Methods Results Pitfalls Challenges Potential future ranges

13 Introduction Data&Methods Results Pitfalls Challenges Potential future ranges

14

15 mean

16 extreme Introduction Data&Methods Results Pitfalls Challenges HadCM3-

17 share oak II oak I other pine I Current 2040 year beech spruce Development of the share of the area of major tree species in Europe under scenario A1Fi until 2100

18 EFISCEN modelling framework Alterra, EFI 18 17/07/2017

19 Land Expectation Value (Faustmann 1849) EFISCEN LEV Beech DISCOUNT COSTS( t ) STUMPAGE THINNINGS LAND AGE FACTORS( t ) VALUES EXPECTATION VALUE ( t ) ST( t ) TH( t ) LEV( t ) (years) ( * ha-1 ) ( * ha-1 ) ( * ha-1 ) ( * ha-1 ) ,00 0, , ,00 0, , ,83 0, , ,21-66, , ,64-120, , ,60-108, , ,21-79, , ,12 7, , ,86 206, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Fh t t a 1 Th a t a 1 i c 1 i t 1 i 1 t

20 LEV (mean) other spruce beech pine I oak I Species group birch oak II pine II Land Expectation Value per ha of species area for 7 species groups calculated as moving mean for 2010 to 2100 (scenario A1FI, ir = 2%)

21 LEV (mean) x share oak II oak I other 0 other spruce beech pine I oak I Species group birch oak II pine II Current pine I spruce beech year 2100 = Loss of LEV

22 Land expectation values of European forest land in /ha LEV in /ha 100% 90% 80% ± ± ±222 other oak II oak I pine I beech spruce 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% current B2 A1B A1Fi B2 A1B A1Fi B2 A1B A1Fi scenario / year i=0.02, price/costs

23 I. Pitfalls - uncertainties Adaptive capacity of species underestimated Speed of migration overestimated Change of productivity under CC II. CO2- fertilization effect Increase of vegetation period Socio-economic adaptive capacities Dynamic market reactions Adaptation strategies of landowners Who adapts? (Blennow, Persson, Tomé, Hanewinkel (2012) Climate Change: Believing and Seeing Implies Adapting PLoS ONE 7(11) Change of species, management

24 III. Uncertainties Economic background (Faustmann model): interest rate, price-cost level, cash flows, risks, IV. Modeling: Combination of biome shift, large scale scenario and economic model assumptions, error propagation! Additional effects: Carbon sequestration, biodiversity, other forest goods and services!

25 Challenges - research questions I. Effects of disturbances Large scale (pan-european including Russia!!) risk modeling Increased productivity vs. increase of disturbances The role of extreme events II. New economic models Modeling of market reactions Integration with dynamic vegetation models Include/reveal uncertainties (Bayesian calibration)