Real-world examples of adaptation from Minnesota. Stephen Handler Climate-Informed Forest Management Forum Grand Rapids, MN May 7, 2014

Transcription

1 Real-world examples of adaptation from Minnesota Stephen Handler Climate-Informed Forest Management Forum Grand Rapids, MN May 7, 2014

2 Acknowledgments Chris Swanston, Director Leslie Brandt, Central Hardwoods and Urban Forests Patricia Butler, Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Maria Janowiak, New England Danielle Shannon Data Analysis and Design Linda Nagel NIACS Member University of Minnesota

3 Outline NIACS Three key questions Forest Adaptation Resources Real-world adaptation examples Discussion

4 Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science Climate Carbon Bioenergy NIACS is a multi-institutional partnership Forest Service Northern Research Station Eastern Region Northeastern Area S&PF Non-FS partners Michigan Technological University National Council for Air & Stream Improvement Trust for Public Land

5 Climate Change Response Framework Website:

6 Three Key Questions 1. What are my core management goals? 2. How could climate change affect my ability to meet those goals? 3. What actions could help prepare for those effects?

7 Parry et al. 2007, SCBD 2009, Groves et al Adaptation and Forest Management Adaptation = taking action to prepare forests for climate change. Adaptation activities can build on sustainable management, conservation, and restoration of forests

8 Forest Adaptation Resources (FAR): Designed for a variety of land managers with various goals and objectives Does not make recommendations Menu of adaptation strategies & approaches for forest ecosystems Source:

9 Adaptation Workbook 1. DEFINE area, management objectives, etc. 5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness. 2. ASSESS climate change impacts. 4. IDENTIFY adaptation approaches. 3. EVALUATE management objectives. Swanston and Janowiak 2012;

10 A Customized Approach Encourage Change Tolerate Change Resist Change

11 Adaptation Strategies Resist Change 1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions. 2: Existing biological stressors. 3: Protect from severe fire and wind. 4: Maintain or create refugia. 5: Species and structural diversity. 6: Ecosystem redundancy. 7: Landscape connectivity. 8: Genetic diversity. 9: Facilitate species transitions. 10: Plan for and respond to disturbance.

12 Adaptation Strategies Resist Change Tolerate Change 1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions. 2: Existing biological stressors. 3: Protect from severe fire and wind. 4: Maintain or create refugia. 5: Species and structural diversity. 6: Ecosystem redundancy. 7: Landscape connectivity. 8: Genetic diversity. 9: Facilitate species transitions. 10: Plan for and respond to disturbance.

13 Adaptation Strategies Resist Change Tolerate Change Encourage Change 1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions. 2: Existing biological stressors. 3: Protect from severe fire and wind. 4: Maintain or create refugia. 5: Species and structural diversity. 6: Ecosystem redundancy. 7: Landscape connectivity. 8: Genetic diversity. 9: Facilitate species transitions. 10: Plan for and respond to disturbance.

14 Flexibility!

15 So how does this work in the real world?

16 Climate Change Response Framework Website:

17 Real-world Examples Federal State/County Private/ NGO Tribal Multiple

18 Superior National Forest: North Shore Forest Restoration Project

19 Step 1: DEFINE area of interest, management goals and objectives, and time frames. Where are you working? What are your management goals and plans for this area?

20 Step 1: DEFINE area of interest, management goals and objectives, and time frames. Project Area Corridor from Tofte to Grand Portage Forest Type Paper birch Mgmt. Obj. Regenerate paper birch

21 1 5 Step 2: ASSESS climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the area of interest. How might the area be uniquely affected by climatic change and subsequent impacts?

22 Step 2: ASSESS climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the area of interest. Broad-scale Impacts & Vulnerabilities How might broad impacts be different in the area of interest? Warmer temps Altered precip Declines in many northern species (PB) Deer Increases in temperate species

23 1 5 Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities. What management challenges or opportunities might occur? Can current management meet management goals? Do goals need to change?

24 Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities. Mgmt. Obj. Challenges Opportunities Feasibility of Meeting Obj. (Current Mgmt) Regenerate paper birch On-going succession Brush, grass comp. Productivity issues Paper birch projected to decline long-term Lake effect = moderation Healthy pockets of birch Range of microsites Short term: Med Long-term: Low

25 1 5 2 Step 4: IDENTIFY and adaptation approaches 4 3 and tactics for implementation. What actions can help cope with change and meet management goals?

26 Step 4: IDENTIFY and adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation. Adaptation Approach Tactic Consider: Recommend Tactics? Match species to sites that are likely to provide future habitat Focus on wetter, north-facing sites Benefits Drawbacks Barriers Yes Encourage a range of native species Plant higher % of white pine, lower % of white spruce Additional species (bur oak, red oak, jack pine, red maple) Yes

27 1 5 2 Step 5: MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness 4 3 of implemented actions. How do we know if the selected actions were effective? What can we learn from these actions to inform future management?

28 Step 5: MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions. Monitoring Item Monitoring Metric Criteria for Evaluation Implement Post harvest stocking* Stems/acre Established criteria Stocking surveys Survival of planted trees* Seedling survival Established criteria Survival surveys *Standard monitoring item

29 Real-world Examples Federal State/County Private/ NGO Tribal Multiple

30 TNC: Adaptation Forestry Photo credits: Meredith Cornett

31 Rajala Companies Forest Stewardship

32 Menominee Oak Wilt Restoration

33 Eau Claire County: Harvest Operations

34 Hands-on Training Opportunity! Forest Adaptation Planning and Practices Cloquet Forestry Center July 10-11, $60 registration Bring your own project Use the Adaptation Workbook Leave with a custom-built adaptation plan 9.0 CFE credits Register:

35 Final Thoughts 1. Get more info: 2. Get in touch with questions: (906) Learn by doing!

36 Global Surface Temp Sources:

37 Global Surface Temp Sources:

38 Global Surface Temp Sources:

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40 How it usually works

41 Weak and wobbly jetstream Alaska: 14.8 degrees above avg. for January Michigan: 6.2 degrees below avg. for February

42 The big picture