Estimates of Sustainably Produced Biomass Feedstocks in New York Timothy A. Volk SUNY-ESF

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1 Estimates of Sustainably Produced Biomass Feedstocks in New York Timothy A. Volk SUNY-ESF Bioenergy Market Development Adirondack Research Consortium February 17, 2010, Saratoga Springs, NY

2 NY Biofuels Roadmap Feedstock Team Cornell University Peter Woodbury, Jeni Wightman, Zia Ahmed, Christian Peters, Jeff Melkonian, Hilary Mayton SUNY-ESF Philip Castellano, Rene Germain, Thomas Buchholz And the rest of the NYS Biofuels Roadmap team: led by Zywia Wojnar of Pace University & Corinne Rutzke of Cornell University NYSERDA -- Judy Jarnefeld Financial and other support: NYSERDA, NYS-DEC, and NYS Ag. & Markets

3 Regional Biomass Assessment Team Central NY Land Management Dan Conable, Chuck Kyle SUNY-ESF Philip Castellano, Rene Germain, Steve Stehman Pioneer Farm Credit of Western NY Steve Bulkley Financial support NYSERDA, NYFVI

4 Outline The complexity of biomass systems Focus on the feedstock component State wide biomass supply estimates Regional biomass supply estimates to for developing projects

5 Solar energy Bioenergy Systems are Complex Ecosystems Waste products Community watershed Natural systems Products from hunting and gathering Ash products Goods, Capital, Technology, Training, Political power Agricultural land Short rotation coppice Agricultural residues Woody biomass Conversion technology Usable power Maintenance Human population Outside community (Agricultural) Goods, Capital Community Degraded land Natural resource management Decison points Atmospheric carbon Soil & Biodiversity loss Wastewater? Atmospheric emissions

6 Biofuels and Bioenergy: Multiple Systems Energy Markets Different Markets fuels, power, heat Policies and regulations vary Feedstock Supply Long Term Agreements Competitive Prices Successful System High Capacity Factor High Availability Conversion Technology Renewable Sustainable Resource Environment Economic Social Competitive Investment Cost Technologically Proven

7 What is Sustainability? A concept that is based on human values: Worldview, perceptions and political interests associated with environmental, economic and social components of a system A directional, rather than absolute, measure Changes across spatial and temporal scales Differences in values often result in disagreements on criteria and mechanisms to assess sustainability Discuss how we are using sustainability to assess biomass supplies at the state wide, near term scale

8 Impact of the People Factor on Biomass Misperceptions about biomass Value laden, emotionally charged issues Need for good scientific evidence to address concerns Need for consistent, long term discussions with all stakeholders Lack of stakeholder involvement and participation, especially at the local level 1/3 of biomass projects in the UK in the late 1990s failed because of local opposition (Upreti 2004) 2/3 of small scale gasifiers deployed in India were not in operation after a year MA recently put a one year moratorium on all new biomass projects in the state

9 NY Renewable Fuels Roadmap Feedstock assessment State of conversion technology Potential biofuels production in NY Potential environmental and economic impacts Assessment of policies related to the development of a biofuels industry

10 NY S Abundant Resource Base Land cover in NYS (Woodbury et al. 2009) Potential sources of biomass for biofuels: Perennial energy crops» Cool or warm season grasses» Short rotation woody crops like shrub willow Woody biomass from forests including low value material and residues A portion of crop residues such as corn stover Waste streams such as grease for biodiesel

11 Focus On Herbaceous and Woody Perennial Crops On Agricultural Land Avoid competition with land that is being used to produce food and fiber for existing markets These crops can be grown on marginal land Perennial nature of energy crops is good for soil and water quality Reduces erosion potential Minimize nutrient loss More carbon stored in soil Potential to improve wildlife habitat

12 Warm-season Perennial Grass Field Trials (Hilary Mayton and others, Cornell University)

13 Willow Biomass Crops 3-4 year old willow biomass crops are harvested during the dormant season

14 Potential Agricultural and Open Land Available for Perennial Crops Start with pasture, hay, and grassland area based on remotely-sensed data Crop land was analyzed separately» no use of crop land in scenario 1» limited use of cropland in scenario 2 Remove current hay & pasture area based on agricultural census data Remove areas with slopes greater than 15% Remove fields smaller than 5 acres (Woodbury et al. 2009)

15 Changes in Production Over Time Some crop land may become available due to increases in crop yield per acre and milk yield per cow. (Woodbury et al. 2009)

16 Potentially Available and Suitable Agricultural Land Proportion of land in each county that is potentially available for perennial energy crops (Woodbury et al. 2009) Not all suitable land is available for perennial feedstocks A large amount of hay and pasture land is needed to maintain livestock production This land was removed from potential area About 1 million acres in NY could be available for perennial energy crops under scenario 1 Close to 1.7 million acres in scenario 2 and 3

17 Estimating Energy Crop Yields Distribution of shrub willow yield trials in North America Based on yields from existing bioenergy feedstock trials, we can estimate the yield of warm-season grasses and short rotation willow Estimates will improve as more results from yield trials are produced Yields will increase with breeding and improved crop management

18 NY s Forest Resources Forest land is the dominates land cover in NY state 18.5 million acres of forest land 15.4 million acres of timberland 774 million tons of standing biomass How much woody biomass is available for bioenergy and biofuels from timberland in NY? Make use of FIA and TPO data Growing stock Non commercial material Residues

19 Sustainable Forest Biomass Restrictions applied during assessments to ensure that forest biomass estimates would be sustainable prohibited harvesting in the forest preserve and other protected areas limited the size of the harvest of traditional forest products and additional biomass for biofuels to the net annual growth rate of forests in each county restricted the proportion of tops and residues collected and prohibited the collection dead trees to address concerns related to nutrient depletion and biodiversity used a sustainable yield model to address concerns related to site conditions, future demographics, or potential development that might impact long term sustained yield management

20 Technically Available Forest Biomass Over 8.9 million dry tons of woody biomass are available each year from forests in NY

21 (based on model developed by Vickery et al. 2009) Sustainable Yield Management Model

22 Potentially Available Forest Biomass million odt of forest biomass are potentially available each year from NYS forests

23 Current and Future Biomass Production Current Production (12.9 M odt) Scenario 1 Production (9.5 M odt) Scenario 2 Production (14.6 M odt)

24 Potential Biomass Production Scenario 1 Scenario million dry tons 14.6 million dry tons Forest biomass is 51% of total 36% 46% 15% 3% Perennial Energy Crops Forest Biomass - Hardwoods Forest Biomass - Softwoods Corn Stover 32% 54% Forest biomass is 44% of total 12% 2%

25 Regional Biomass Assessments Need supply shed specific assessments of biomass availability to implement projects Use GIS to determine the amount of technically available forest and agricultural land Estimate available forest biomass using FIA data Estimate perennial energy crop production on agricultural land using regional field tests Several locations completed in NY» 50 mile assessments around Syracuse, Lyonsdale» 25 mile assessments around Delhi, Syracuse, Tupper Lake Assess socio-economic factors in supply shed to develop cost supply curves and more accurately determine biomass supply

26 Assessment of Technically Available Woody Biomass Supply Determine amount of technically available woody biomass from forests and willow biomass crops available in 50 mile radius around Lyonsdale, NY 50 mile radius woody supply shed around Lyonsdale, NY

27 Technically Available Woody Biomass from Forests 50 Mile Radius 2.8 million acres of forest cover Remove forest land: forest preserve excessive slope small parcels classified wetlands Result is 1.3 million acres of timberland Potential production of 717,000 odt per year Timberland in a 50 mile radius around Lyonsdale, NY

28 Technically Available Woody Biomass from Forests 50 Mile Road Network 1.5 million acres of forest cover Remove forest land: preserves excessive slope small parcels classified wetland ~ 900,000 acres of timberland Potential production of 469,000 odt per year 65% of 50 mile radius assessment Timberland within the 50 mile road network around Lyonsdale, NY

29 Technically Available Woody Biomass from Agricultural Land 50 Mile Radius Agricultural land in a 50 mile radius around Lyonsdale, NY 842,000 acres of agricultural land cover Remove land: not classified for agriculture excessive slopes wetlands small parcels ~ 400,000 acres remaining On 10% of this land (40,000 acres) could produce 200,000 odt/yr

30 Technically Available Woody Biomass from Agricultural Land 50 Mile Road Network Agricultural land in a 50 mile radius around Lyonsdale, NY 518,000 acres of agricultural land cover Remove land: not classified for agriculture excessive slopes wetlands small parcels ~ 250,000 acres remaining On 10% of this land (25,000 acres) could produce 125,000 odt/yr 62.5% of 50 mile radius supply

31 Technically Available Woody Biomass Supply 50 Mile radius and road network around Lyonsdale, NY. A total of 917,000 odt of woody biomass is technically available from a 50 mile radius Using the 50 mile road network, 594,000 odt (65%) are technically available 469,000 from timber land 125,000 from willow crops Willow biomass crops grown on a land area that is 3% of the timberland area could produce 27% of the total biomass

32 Technically Available Biomass from Agricultural Land Almost 440,000 acres of agricultural land Remove land: not classified for agriculture excessive slopes wetlands small parcels ~ 167,000 acres remaining On 10% of this land could produce over 83,000 odt/yr with yields of 5 odt/acre/yr (Castellano et al. 2009)

33 Technically Available Woody Biomass from Forests About 580,000 acres of forest cover Remove forest land: preserves small parcels classified wetlands excessive slope Result is 400,000 acres of timberland Potential production of 245,000 odt per year Timberland in a 25 mile radius around Syracuse, NY (Castellano et al. 2009)

34 Technically Available Woody Biomass Supply A total of over 325,000 odt of woody biomass is technically available from a 25 mile radius 83,000 odt from agricultural land 245,000 odt from timber land Willow biomass crops grown on a land area that is 4.1% of the timberland area could produce ~25% of the total biomass The 19 MW e CHP facility Lyonsdale Biomass uses ~ 165,000 odt/yr 25 mile radius could support 2 similar sized plants (Castellano et al. 2009)

35 Socio-economic Potential Amount of technically available resource will vary due to a range of socioeconomic factors: Harvesting systems and infrastructure Landowner opinions and management objectives Market prices for other energy sources (coal, oil, natural gas) Prices for biomass for other uses (i.e. pulp logs, saw logs, pellets, firewood, mulch etc.) Incentives and policies that support renewable energy Perceptions and assessments of sustainability

36 Harvesting Perennial Energy Need to develop efficient and cost effective harvesting, handling, transportation and storage logistics for perennial energy crops.

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38 Reducing the Price of Forest Biomass Cost reductions from over ~ 20 years in Sweden Improved equipment and lower costs over time in forwarding and chipping steps Increased efficiency with more experience Improved logistics in entire system Lack information on harvesting costs in NE

39 Gathering Landowner Opinions Over 7,000 parcels in the 25 mile area Varied objectives and ideas about land use and producing and selling biomass Randomly selected a set of parcels to do site assessments and interviews with landowners

40 Assessment of Individual Parcels An individual parcel with subparcels that are currently being used for different purposes Based on soils data and site assessments, estimated biomass production from agricultural and land Based on a small sample of points in the forests estimated potential saw timber and biomass production Created a summary report and then visited land owners for an interview Interest in growing biomass Prices needed to grow different types of biomass

41 Biofuels and Bioenergy: Multiple Systems Energy Markets Different Markets fuels, power, heat Policies and regulations vary Feedstock Supply Long Term Agreements Competitive Prices Successful System High Capacity Factor High Availability Conversion Technology Renewable Sustainable Resource Environment Economic Social Competitive Investment Cost Technologically Proven

42 Summary NY has a wide range of natural resources that could contribute to the supply of biomass for bioenergy, biofuels and/or bioproducts Technical assessments being completed for the Biofuels Roadmap will give an indication of the state wide potential For specific projects regional assessments are needed People are involved in all stages of the process from feedstock production through energy use Challenges related to these issues include A challenge ahead is to understand the people factor to connect supply and demand, overcome disagreements and move the industry forward

43 Acknowledgements NY Farm Viability Institute NYS Dept. Agriculture and Markets NYS Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) USDA CSREES USDA Rural Development