Rates in Henan Province

Transcription

1 Internatonal Conference on Advanced Manufacturng and Industral Applcaton (ICAMIA 2015) Study on Spatal Dstrbuton Characterstcs of IntraCty Agrculture Sub-sector Value-Added Growth Rates n Henan Provnce Kaguang Zhang*, Mngtng Ba, Yanmn Sun and Honglng Meng Insttute of 3S Technology, Zhengzhou Normal Unversty, , Zhengzhou, Chna *Correspondng author government as admnstratve body, admnstratve dvsons as a geographcal unt, forms a relatvely complete functonal economc form. It s vtal to scentfcally evaluate a cty's economc development rate of ndustry, research the man drvng forces of economc growth n ctes, comprehensvely to analyze and compare the dfferences among ctes, to reveal weak lnks and development drectons of economc growth n varous ctes [3-8]. Abstract Based on the value-added data of agrcultural sub-sectors from 2011 to 2014, ths paper utlzes spatal statstcal analyss methods to study the spatal dstrbuton characterstcs, spatal correlatons as well as the dfference degrees of agrcultural subsector value-added growth rates for ctes n Henan provnce. The results show that there s a polarzaton feature of agrcultural subsector value-added growth rates. The ntra-cty forestry value-added growth rates exst some postve correlatons. Zhengzhou cty has been becomng a growth pole. There are some negatve correlatons for the ntra-cty anmal husbandry value-added growth rates, the eastern part of the provnce has been becomng a relatvely weak developng area. In ctes, the value-added growth rates for the dfferent sub-sectors have a sgnfcant dfference, there s a large space for adjustment of sub-sector developng polcy. In the ntractes, the value-added growth rates for the same sub-sectors have a large varaton, the nteractons are very week and the coordnated developments are nsuffcent. Affected by spatal locatons and natural resources dstrbuton, there are certan geographcal features n agrcultural economc development, whle the agrcultural economc growth of one cty and economc development of adjacent ctes s closely lnked. In the data, there are some spatal correlatons n the spatal dstrbuton of growth rate [4,9,10]. In ths paper, spatal statstcal analyss methods are utlzed to analyze the agrcultural sub-sector economc growth rates for 18 ctes n Henan provnce n the last consecutve fve years from 2010 to Based on the spatal relatonshps of statstcal analyss results, study the spatal varaton patterns and spatal relatonshps of sub-sector economc growth rates n agrcultural economy for the provnce, to reveal ther spatal dfferences and spatal correlatons, and understand ther spatal patterns, for unearthng the profound reasons, formulatng the correspondng countermeasures, and mantanng the provncal agrcultural economy equlbrum, rapd and sustanable development supply a scentfc bass. Keywords-agrcultural sub-sector growth rate; spatal statstcal analyss; clusterng analyss; global spatal auto-correlaton; local auto-correlaton; henan provnce I. INTRODUCTION Please submt sources fles drectly to the conference organzer. If the conference edtors chose to provde prnt-ready PDF documents to the publsher, you have to submt hghresoluton PDF fle wth all fonts embedded (see PDF gudelnes) nstead of the sources fles. In ths case, please remember that no fnal correctons wll be made by the publsher. Henan s a major agrcultural provnce wth agrcultural economy playng a vtal supportng role nthe provnce's economy, meanwhle the development of agrcultural economy s also an mportant lvelhood bass for the provnce. In recent years, agrcultural economy has consderably developed wth extensve applcatons of agrcultural scence and technology, the proporton of agrcultural economy n the natonal economy has gradually ncreased. However the problem n agrcultural ndustry structure s growng more and more severe wth tme, whch has serously hndered the overall economc growth. It s a sgnfcant task for the provnce to adjust the structure of agrcultural ndustry, to ratonally utlze natural resources as well as to promote the healthy growth of agrcultural economy and the whole natonal economy[1,2]. II. A. Date and Processng Accordng to the natonal economc ndustral classfcaton crtera, the ndcators of ths research ncludes fve sub-sectors of agrculture, such as farmng, forestry, anmal husbandry, fshery and servces for farmng, forestry, anmal husbandry, fshery (generally called as servces). Followng constant prce n the year of 2010, the annual subsector value-added growth rates for all ctes are calculated by usng the sub-sector value-added data comng from the Henan statstcal yearbook 2010~2014. The spatal maps used n the research come from Henan spatal map database [11,12]. Cty regonal economy wth a certan geographcal feature s an mportant part of regonal economy. It takes a muncpal The authors - Publshed by Atlants Press EASE OF USE RESEARCH METHODS 167

2 B. Prncpal Component Analyss Prncpal component analyss s a wdely used analyss method n the data mnng, whch lnearly combnes the orgnal varables to a few of new lnearly ndependent varables n order to effectvely elmnate overlappng nformaton among the orgnal varables. The data analyss carres out on the new varables [13]. C. Spatal Weght Matrx Spatal weght matrx s a bnary symmetrc matrx descrbng the spatal adjacent relatonshps. In the topology, wj 1 f and only f the polygon And j have some common edges, otherwse 0 w j. D. K-mean Clusterng Analyss K-mean clusterng analyss s one of the most effectve methods for spatal clusterng. Frstly, the dstance between samples and the crteron functon s defned, the clusterng number and the ntal clusterng centers are determned accordng to the pror knowledge. Secondly, the remanng samples are assgned to each group correspondng to the clusterng centers, calculate the new clusterng centers and crteron functon untl the change of crteron functon fall n the settng allowable range. E. Global Spatal Auto-Correlaton Analyss The global spatal auto-correlaton analyss s based on Moran I ndex, whch reflects the spatal dfference degree and spatal smlarty degree for the adjacent regons wth a certan regular dstrbuton samples. n 2 n n ( ) ( ) 1 j j 1 j 1 j I x x w x x s w (1) III. 3 SPATIAL ANALYSIS ON AGRICULTURAL SUB-SECTOR VALUE-ADDED GROWTH RATES IN HENAN PROVINCE A. The prncpal Component Analyss on Agrcultural Subsector Value-Added Growth Rates n Henan Provnce For a cty regon, the prncpal component analyss of subsector value-added growth rates s conducted, and three prncpal components are extracted under the confdence (90%). Then (3) s used to construct the vector of the sub-sector valueadded growth rates for all ctts. 3 V mpm (3) m 1 where, m s an egenvalue. P m s the correspondng factor score coeffcent vector. The calculaton results are shown n Table1. Table1 shows that there are dfferent growth ponts of agrculture economy for dfferent cty, such as the forestry n Shangqu s the manly drvng force for agrculture economy growth(1.57), anmal husbandry value-added growth rate laggng behnd (-1.23). B. The Clusterng Analyss on Agrcultural Sub-sector Value-Added Growth Rates n Henan Provnce The K-mean clusterng analyss s carred out on vectors of the agrcultural sub-sector value-added growth rates (Table1). The Eucldean dstance s adopted as the dstance between two samples, the sum of squares of devatons s used as the crteron functon,and the clusterng number s 3, The results are showed n Table 2. 2 where, x, x, s respectvely are the sample value, the mean and the varance. The test statstcs, normalzng Z, descrbes the correlaton degree between the regonal samples, and for the correspondng sgnfcance level. If s less than the sgnfcant level set before(generally 0.05 ), we beleve the sample sequence s derved from a random dstrbuton and there s no correlaton. as 0.05, the postve and negatve values of Z respectvely stand for the degree of aggregaton and dsperson [14]. F. Local Spatal Auto-Correlaton Analyss Local spatal auto-correlaton uses the Local Moran I ndex, whch shows the space-related pattern on dfferent spatal locatons, descrbes the degree of aggregaton and the degree of dfference for one regon whch have some sgnfcant smlarty wth adjacent regons[14]. n 2 n n ( ) ( ) 1 j j 1 j 1 j I x x w x x s w FIGURE I. THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF SUB-SECTOR VALUE- ADDED RELATIVE GROWTH RATES IN HENAN PROVINCE 168

3 When all cty regons are dvded nto 3 groups, The frst group s forestry drvng type(1.31), the growth of anmal husbandry are relatve lag behnd (-0.75), represented by Shangqu, composed of Zhoukou, Luohe, Kafeng, Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Sanmenxa. The second group, represented by Xnyang, ncludes eght ctes as Puyang, Jyuan, Jaozuo, Anyang, Nanyang, Xuchang, Zhumadan, s servces drvng type(1.25), the development of forestry are ther weaknesses (- 0.31). Anmal husbandry-drvng type wth low farmng valueadded growth rates s the characterstc of the thrd group, ts representatve s Xnxang(1.42), ncludng Pngdngshan and Jaozuo. TABLE I. THE AGRICULTURAL SUB-SECTOR VALUE-ADDED RELATIVE GROWTH RATES IN HENAN PROVINCE Cty Farmng Forestry Husbandry Fshery Servces Zhengzhou Kafeng Luoyang Pngdngshan Anyang Heb Xnxang Jaozuo Puyang Xuchang Luohe Sanmenxa Nanyang Shangqu Xnyang Zhoukou Zhumadan Jyuan In the vew of geographcal dstrbuton, The frst group s located n the central from the north to the south of the provnce (Fgure 1), along wth Longha ralway (G30 expressway), where has well-developed transportaton network, and the frst 4 ctes are located n the eastern plan of the provnce. The second group s located n the northern end and the southern end of the provnce, where has relatvely complex terran and rch forestry resources. The forestry economy holds a larger share of the whole ndustry, but the forestry valueadded growth has lttle contrbuton to the whole ndustry growth. The thrd group s located n the transtonal zone between the former two groups, s adjacent to the regon of ZhengBanLuo economc zone where are relatvely provncal well-developed area, benefts from the developed toursm and scale cultvaton. C. The Global Spatal Auto-Correlaton Analyss on Agrcultural Sub-sector Value-Added Growth Rates n Henan Provnce Usng the global spatal auto-correlaton analyss on the agrcultural sub-sector value-added growth rates, the results are showed n Table 3. Under the sgnfcance level(0.05), there are some obvously postve correlatons n the dstrbutons of forestry, anmal husbandry and fshery value-added growth rates, they demonstrate hgh-hgh and low-low aggregaton characterstcs, show that there are mutual nfluences among adjacent cty regons, but obvous regonal dfferences n the value-added growth rates for dfferent cty regons. There are lttle negatve correlatons n the dstrbutons of farmng and servces value-added growth rates, whch show that the development polcy of adjacent cty s relatve closed, the value-added growth rates s relatvely balanced. TABLE II. THE FINAL CLUSTER CENTERS Group Farmng Forestry Husbandry Fshery Servces TABLE III. GLOBAL SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION ANALYSIS Farmng Forestry Husbandry Fshery Servces Moran Pvalue Pvalue D. The local Spatal Auto-Correlaton Analyss on Agrcultural Sub-sector Value-Added Growth Rates n Henan Provnce Carry out local spatal autocorrelaton analyss on the 6 subsector value-added growth rates n Henan provnce, under the sgnfcance level (0.05) Moran scatter plots are showed as Fgure 2. In the vew of spatal dstrbuton, there s a sgnfcant hgh aggregaton regons for forestry and fshery value-added growth rates, where are the faster value-added growth rate areas for the two sub-sectors, whle the low aggregaton areas for anmal husbandry and fshery value-added growth rates are the slower value-added growth rate areas. In the vew of spatal locaton nteractons, accordng to the theores of regonal economc, the regons wth fast growng rates have radaton and leadng role on adjacent areas through nformaton exchange and cooperaton to form a pattern of common development. For example, the provncal captal cty, Zhengzhou, whch s also the most developed cty n the provnce, leads to the forestry rapd value-added growth n adjacent ctes as Kafeng and Xuchang, due to ts ncreasng demand for flowers and trees n urban greenng, but the radaton nfluence to Luoyang s relatvely weak for the terran factors. Shangqu and Kafeng form a low-lyng area of anmal husbandry value-added growth rates for geographcal factors. 169

4 Luoyang s not only a hgh-low aggregaton regon of farmng value-added growth rates, but also a low-hgh aggregaton regon of servces, Xuchang s not only a aggregaton regon of forestry value-added growth rate, but also a hgh-low aggregaton regon of anmal husbandry, whch mean that the sub-sector value-added growth rates n the two regons are very mbalanced, and there s a large space for polcy adjustment. The low-hgh aggregaton regon of anmal husbandry valueadded growth rate, Anyang, located n the most northern part of the provnce, s affected by the provncal captal, Zhengzhou, and JngJnJ regon, but the role s not very obvous. Xnyang s the only one regon n the north of the country, has relatvely rch water resources, but the fshery value-add growth rate s relatvely slow, forms a low-hgh accumulaton area. IV. CONCLUSIONS Ths paper utlzes spatal statstcal analyss methods to study the spatal dstrbuton characterstcs, spatal correlatons as well as the dfferent degrees of agrcultural sub-sector economc growth rates of ctes n Henan provnce. The results show that: (1) The agrcultural sub-sector value-added growth rates n Henan provnce can be dvded nto three groups as the forestry-drvng type, the servces drvng type and the anmal husbandry drvng type. (2) There s an obvous postve correlaton n forestry value-added growth rates, the provncal captal Zhengzhou, has been gradually becomng the growth pole. There s a negatve correcton n the anmal husbandry value-added growth rates, the eastern part of the provnce has been becomng a relatvely weak developng area. (3) There s an obvous space for polcy adjustment because of the agrcultural sub-sector value-added growth rates n the ctes of the provnce. (4) The dfferences of the agrcultural sub-sector value-added growth rates between the dfferent ctes are relatvely obvous, the nteractons between adjacent ctes are very week and the coordnated developments are nsuffcent. FIGURE II. THE LOCAL SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION DISTRIBUTION OF SUB-SECTOR VALUE-ADDED GROWTH RATES IN HENAN PROVINCE In the vew of spatal locaton nteractons, accordng to the theores of regonal economc, the regons wth fast growng rates have radaton and leadng role on adjacent areas through nformaton exchange and cooperaton to form a pattern of common development. For example, the provncal captal cty, Zhengzhou, whch s also the most developed cty n the provnce, leads to the forestry rapd value-added growth n adjacent ctes as Kafeng and Xuchang, due to ts ncreasng demand for flowers and trees n urban greenng, but the radaton nfluence to Luoyang s relatvely weak for the terran factors. Shangqu and Kafeng form a low-lyng area of anmal husbandry value-added growth rates for geographcal factors. Luoyang s not only a hgh-low aggregaton regon of farmng value-added growth rates, but also a low-hgh aggregaton regon of servces, Xuchang s not only a aggregaton regon of forestry value-added growth rate, but also a hgh-low aggregaton regon of anmal husbandry, whch mean that the sub-sector value-added growth rates n the two regons are very mbalanced, and there s a large space for polcy adjustment. The low-hgh aggregaton regon of anmal husbandry valueadded growth rate, Anyang, located n the most northern part of the provnce, s affected by the provncal captal, Zhengzhou, and JngJnJ regon, but the role s not very obvous. Xnyang s the only one regon n the north of the country, has relatvely rch water resources, but the fshery value-add growth rate s relatvely slow, forms a low-hgh accumulaton area. 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