Climate Change & Development

Transcription

1 Climate Change & Development Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Key Issues of the Post-2012 Climate Change Framework Global Forum on Sustainable Development OECD Conference Centre, Paris, France 4-5 March

2 Key Messages Deforestation: Reducing emissions from deforestation is possible and urgently needed for 2 C. Cannot continue to choose ignorance 20% of problem. Sustainable Development: Catalyze gains toward climate stability, poverty reduction, biodiversity conservation, and rural development. Positive Incentives: Leading drivers are identifiable. In most cases, higher carbon incentives will drive greater emissions reductions from deforestation and forest degradation. Funding Available (20/20): 20% of problem: 20% of solution. 20% of carbon market resources could provide revenues at necessary scale: $5 - $25 billion/yr.

3 Global Impacts One billion acres of tropical forest lost Achard et al., 2002 Science 297:999

4 Water Quantity & Quality

5 Impacts on Coral Reefs

6 Local & Global Fisheries

7 Species and Populations Vertebrates 56,586 spp. 21% threatened Invertebrates 1,190,200 spp. 58% threatened Plants 287,655 spp. 69% threatened Total 1,534,441 spp. 59% threatened

8 Ecosystem Services Disease Buffering Pest Control Pollination

9 Disease & Violence

10 Infectious Diseases Cryptosporidiosis Lyme borreliosis Venezuelan equine encephalitis West Nile fever Lassa fever Yellow fever Multidrug-resistant Salmonella E. coli O157 BSE nvcjd E. coli non-o157 Legionellosis West Nile fever s Rift Valley fever Cholera 0139 Malaria Typhoid Echinococcosi E. coli O157 Influenza A (H5N1) Dengue haemhorragic fever Nipah virus encephalitis Diphtheria Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome Cholera Ebola haemhorragic fever O nyong-nyong fever Hendra virus infection Human monkeypox Cholera Legionellosis

11 Rural Landscapes

12 Extreme Weather Events

13 Emission Sources IPCC: Emissions from deforestation approx. 20% of total GHG s

14 Emission Sources

15 Emissions by Country

16 National Circumstance 100% Guyana Suriname Conservation & SMFC Forest Cover PNG Mexico Cameroon REDD CDM-AR EFCS (plus CDM-AR) China India Costa Rica 0% Time

17 Deforestation Drivers Foods: Soya, Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Gardens, Ranching, etc. Logging: Low value exports, unsustainable practices. Energy: Bio-Fuels and Fuel-wood in rural areas. Development: Roads, Mining, Power-Lines, etc. Bio-Fuel: Over 100 year carbon payback due to deforestation. 1 SUV Ethanol Tank = 365 Days of Corn for 1 person. Population Growth Perverse Incentives

18 The Kyoto Dilemma KP Exclusion: Kyoto Protocol includes deforestation for industrial countries, but intentionally excludes developing nations that reduce deforestation. KP unfairly discriminates against these nations. How can we ignore 20% of GHG? Market Access: Tropical rainforest nations deserve to be treated equally in world carbon markets. A ton is a ton is a ton

19 Rainforest Coalition Central America Asia Caribbean CfRN Africa South America Interregional Policy Development & Consensus

20 REDD Origins Problematic: Inclusion of land-use change and forestry under the KP difficult to negotiate because of uncertainties about magnitude. Complex: Solution reached at Marrakesh, three years after KP agreed. Catalytic though complex. Omissions: Includes deforestation for Annex-B countries; omission of deforestation from CDM intentional additionality, project leakage, permanence.

21 REDD Emergence May 2005 UNFCCC Workshop: PNG proposed voluntary RED based on positive incentives for developing countries relative to national reference level. Later joined by 9 other developing countries 11 th COP (Montreal), Nov 2005: Parties agree two year work programme 12 th COP (Nairobi), Dec 2006: Brazil proposes voluntary RED based on positive incentives and an national accounting system, though not carbon market access 13 th COP (Bali), Dec 2007: Decisions on REDD (SBSTA and Bali Roadmap.)

22 Bali Roadmap Key Element: REDD decision is key part of overall negotiation for future framework at the 15 th COP (Copenhagen) MRV: Expected to yield measurable, verifiable reportable actions on emissions mitigation Finance: Post-2012 positive incentives for the enhanced implementation of national mitigation strategies Other Activities: Degradation included. Consider conservation, SMF & enhancement of forest carbon stocks

23 SBSTA REDD Decision Demonstration: Rules for demonstration projects reduces uncertainty for participants, facilitates integration with future compliance regime Accounting: National accounting using IPCC. Subnational demonstration activities only as step toward national approaches Reporting & Review: Anticipates reporting and independent review Early Action: Encourages immediate action and agrees to consider this early action

24 Necessary Strategic Alliances UNEP World Bank Rainforest Countries FAO SUCCESS UNDP

25 Moving Forward Category I Readiness Category II Scaling-Up Category III Future Markets Readiness 1. REDD Country -Led 2. Voluntary 3. Capacity Building 4. Analysis / Institutions / Policies / Demonstrate 5. Coordinated REDD Platform Agencies & IFIs Activities Funding Methods Performance 6. Small Demonstration Activities US$ 250-US$ 1 B Scaling-Up 1. Expand Implementation 2. Voluntary 3. No Time Limits 4. Under Convention 5. Ex-Post Incentives 6. Flexible Demonstration National Sub-National/Project (Displacement) 7. Methods: IPCC GPGs 8. ODA + Market Linked 9. Demonstration Trading US$ 5 US$ 10 B/Y Future Regimes 1. MRV Market Activities 2. Voluntary 3. Fully Fungible 4. National Accounting 5. Flex. Implementation 6. Methods: IPCC GPGs 7. Ex-Ante Credit 8. Participation Reference Level Development Adj. Early Action 9. End of Term Reserves /Carry- Over 10. Additional to CDM 11. Supply = Demand US$ 10 US$ 40 B/Y

26 Mobilizing Resources Markets Finance Sources Kyoto Protocol Links: AAU Auctions Trans. Fees Market Integrity Future International Agreement on Climate Change M R V Env. Integrity Category III: Future Markets Blend Category II: Expand Implementation ODA Category 1: Readiness Time

27 Market Entry Reference Scenario: Historical data. At least 5 years. Conservativeness. Projected Emissions: REDD Plan outlining policy approaches and projecting emission reductions or removals. Early Action Credit: CDM precedent. Carry forward those reductions or removals meeting robust national carbon accounting standards. Development Adjustment: Reference level adjusted, up or down, to reflect respective capabilities.

28 Market Stability Registry: Reference Level, Early Action, Projections, Realized. AAU Cutout: Annex-1 cut out [10%] of AAUs, and set them aside in REDD Settlement Account. Real and Additional Reductions, not offsets. Settlement: Exchange. Proportional. Shortfall/Surplus. End of Term: Banking Roll-Over. Real Emission Reductions: Emission Reduction Intensive Activities. Real Carbon Reduction No Intensity targets!

29 Copenhagen deal? Fair & Equitable: Seek agreement on a framework for fair and equitable mitigation by all Annex 1 Leadership: Ambitious commitments from developed countries consistent with 40% emissions reduction by 2020 and 90% by 2050 (lowest level of IPCC AR4 WG3) Voluntary Actions: Developing country voluntary actions consistent with departure from BAU Including REDD: Will increase Annex-1 country ambition and demonstrate developing country willingness to act: carbon market, essential for this.

30 Principles DEEPER CUTS by Rich Nations VOLUNTARY Action by Poor Nations Sovereignty over Forest Resources Real Benefits climate and development Accommodate National Circumstances New Mechanisms Convention & Markets Philosophy of Positive Incentives Market & Environmental Integrity Equitable & Fair

31 Leadership? The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse affects thereof. UNFCCC, Clause 3.1