Climate change: evaluating the vulnerabilities of our Atlantic communities to better define their future

Transcription

1 Climate change: evaluating the vulnerabilities of our Atlantic communities to better define their future Liette Vasseur and Norm Catto Laurentian University and Memorial University of Newfoundland

2 Atlantic Chapter

3

4 Acadian Forest assemblage, near Strathgartney,, Prince Edward Island

5 Crop management, including hay cultivation, Arlington, NS

6 Spruce- Fir- Aspen boreal forest assemblage, Boreal Forest Ecozone,, near Springdale, central NL.

7 Glacial cirques, Torngat Mountains, Labrador.

8 Demographics New Brunswick Newfoundland and Labrador Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Canada Population, 2005 Population change, (%) Urban (%) (3) Ages (%) Ages (%) Ages 65+ (%) Projected population by

9 Annual change mean temperature

10 2050s seasonal change

11 What to expect Longer, hotter and drier summers Increased thunderstorm & lightning activity Increased storm activity More winter & spring precipitation, especially rain Stronger winds Variable, generally reduced snow cover More anomalous events Decreased fog

12 Sea level rise

13 Key findings Coastal communities Extreme events Natural ecosystems Demographics and challenge of rural versus urban areas Coastal influence in the Atlantic region versus the inland regions

14 Damage from Hurricane Juan, Bishop s Landing, Halifax

15 Ice jam-induced flooding, Badger, NL

16 Erosion rates on transect indicated by black broken line: : m/a : m/a well in beach

17 Communities and adaptations Challenges due to changes in origin of people (urban versus local): adaptations vs. beauty of the place But opportunities: Longer season in the valley for crops Less heating in winter, but maybe higher in summer for air conditioning Change in tourism

18 Maladaptations Real adaptations versus maladaptations and reactions

19 Construction of buildings on pylons, Grand Barachois,, NB

20 Average vs. Extreme average conditions impact agricultural activity a single late frost, hailstorm, flood, or extended drought can have an overriding effect extreme events more difficult to assess increased frequency of drier and hotter periods more intense precipitation events greater irregularity in last spring and first autumn frost dates

21 Impacts affect more than just fish Changed pathogens, predators, and pests Impacts to infrastructure Regulatory regime Transportation, marketing, communications Operational changes by fish harvesters Health and safety Search-and and-rescue operations

22 Forestry species change less important than Changed pathogens, predators, and pests Transportation, marketing, communications Operational changes Availability Global competition & industry response

23 Climate Impacts & Tourism Impacts on Tourism: Increased wave erosion by winter storm surges Increased coastal erosion and narrowing of beaches Coarsening of beach sediments Increased degradation of coastal dunes Damage to trails Water supply and quality concerns drier summers Impacts of Tourism: Increased visitation & longer season Enhanced tourist use of natural areas Summer use of wooded areas can result in an increase in forest fires (local & distant) Increased use of ponds during summer

24 Case Study Bouctouche Small village where eco- tourism has become one of the most important industries Among the attractions, Le Pays de la Sagouine,, the Yacht Club, and La Dune de Bouctouche

25

26 Aboriginal communities - situation Aboriginal communities, including Innu, Inuit and Mi kmaq among others, have a distinctive set of socioeconomic conditions and strong TEK and traditions. Characteristically, higher proportions of young citizens Per capita earnings and incomes are lower than for the general populations of the region Education levels are generally lower as well Traditionally, practiced seasonal migration

27 Traditional medicinal plants Sweetgrass and salt marshes plants Mikmac First Nations of Elsipogtog

28 From North to South in red, salt marsh sampling in Marais de l Embouchure de la Rivière St-Louis, Marais de la Grande Anse and Marais des Étroites jusqu à la Pointe des Allains. In purple and in the red zones, sweetgrass sampling, including North Richibuctou Dune, in Kouchibouguac National Park of Canada.

29 Scenario with 2.55 m sea level rise from current level

30 Planning and development Under the current conditions, moving structures from the coast would require the community to acquire new lands farther inland. Concerns: costs and limitations. Degradation of their social and cultural integrity. Vulnerable to further climate change impacts.

31 Key message: protection of the ecosystem

32 Challenges How do we deal with demographics, social income and economic drivers? Can they adapt as well as other communities? What will be the socio-economic impacts of these changes?

33 Thank you!