Wood potential assessments

Transcription

1 Wood potential assessments Overview of different regional studies Antti Asikainen, professor Finnish Forest Research Institute Workshop on Estimating Potential Sustainable Wood Supply UNECE/FAO Timber Section Geneva Finnish Forest Research Institute

2 ENERGY INCREASES ITS IMPORTANCE ENERGY INCREASES ITS IMPORTANCE pulp and paper energy Nominal value of production, bill year

3 Estimation of total biomass Datasets give often the volume of mechantable stemwood branches, unmerchantable stemwood added with biomass expansion factors More recently all biomass components included in inventories Source: Röser et al. 2008

4 WOOD POTENTIAL ASSESSMENTS Sawmills in Romania, Czech Rep. & Russian Karelia Four plants in Scotland ( MW) Soria, Spain (3 x 2 MW) Bialystok, Poland (82 MW) Hallormstadur, Iceland (0.5 MW) Zabreh, Czech Republic (80 MW) Zvolen, Slovakia (100 MW) Chaumont, France (20 MW) Rio Negro, Uruguay (30 MW) Biorefineries and CHP plants in Finland (5-500 MW)

5 Datasets for wood potential assessment Stand level data ( ha) forest management plans harvesting site records available in most countries Evaluation very accurate, directly in GIS expensive harvesting records not always available restrictions because of ownership issues

6 Example: Long term feedstock supply to a DHP plant in Scotland Cumulative Yearly Harvesting possibilities (m³) by Road transport distance Periods between Years m³ km

7 Datasets: Municipal level Municipal level data ( km 2 ) annual statistics on cuttings and use of wood rarely available available e.g. in Finland, France, Russian Karelia NAI and age classes not always accurate on municipal level, derived either from stand level data or national forest inventory Resolution high enough for plant (sawmill, heat plant etc.) level studies Data source: Thivolle-Cazat, FCBA

8 Example: Municipal balance of wood use Annual use, m 3 Balance, 1000 m 3 Use of forest chips at plants Balance of forest chips at municipal level

9 Datasets: Regional level Regional level data ( km 2 ) national forest inventory data multi source data incl. satellite images integration of data from lower levels Scopes of studies Regional forest programmes Monitoring of forest development Estimation of wood availability for investors

10 Datasets: National level National level data ( km 2 ) national forest inventory data multi source data incl. satellite images integration of data from lower levels Scopes of studies forest and energy policy monitoring of forest development strategic level decision making of forest and energy industries

11 Examples on reported results: NFI of Finland Variables by regions and by tree species forest area and dominat species growing stock growing stock/ha age class distribution annual increment recent forest operations Decidous Spruce Pine

12 Datasets: Global level Global level data FAO forest statistics satellite images integration of data from lower levels Scopes of studies global forest and renewable energy policy monitoring of forest development strategic level decision making of international communities Wood supply for energy can be increased by 1.2 billion m 3 : share of biomass 10->12% of global energy consumption

13 REDUCTION FACTORS OF POTENTIAL SUPPLY 1. Share of stands that are available for wood markets 2. Losses of raw material at different stages of supply chain 1. Roundwood: 2-5% 2. Energy wood: 10-35% 3. Restrictions due to protection schemes (Natura, nature protection, land use planning) 4. Socio-economic?

14 WHAT SHOULD BE HARMONIZED? 1. Measurement methodology of basic data: NO 2. Definitions and units of variables: YES 3. Key reporting variables: YES, e.g. 1. Dry mass (volume) of separate biomass components: stemwood, bark, branches, foliage 2. Harvestable wood/forest land/year and volume of wood/total land area/year 4. Calculation principles e.g. biomass extension factors: YES

15 WHAT SHOULD BE REPORTED AND HARMONIZED? 5. At least two basic scenarios: BAU and highest sustainable supply 6. Balance (possibly regional) of the sustainable supply - current use by biomass assortments 7. Future development of wood supply and/or age class distributions by regions 8. Diameter class distributions by tree species

16 PRIMARY CUSTOMER PERSPECTIVE Wood potential assessments should support Investments and feedstock supply of forest and energy industry

17 End product: Cost - supply curves 400 GWh/a (1000 tonne/a, 1000 m 3 /a) Almazan, Thinning, Roadside Landing Cabrejas del Pinar, Thinning, Roadside Landing San Pedro Manrique, Thinning, Roadside Landing Almazan, Thinning, Terminal Cabrejas del Pinar, Thinning, Terminal San Pedro Manrique, Thinning, Terminal /MWh ( /tonne, /m 3 )

18 SECONDARY CUSTOMER PERSPECTIVE Wood potential assessments should serve making of good forest and energy policy

19 Climate change Competition from southern plantations Dependency on imports Effective Forest and Energy policy Competition of other raw materials