Climate Change and Sea Level Rise in Coastal New Hampshire. Cameron Wake, Ph.D.

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1 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise in Coastal New Hampshire Cameron Wake, Ph.D. Research Associate Professor Climatology and Glaciology University of New Hampshire Environmental Business Council of New England Energy Environment Economy

2 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise in Coastal New Hampshire Cameron Wake Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space (EOS) Josephine A Lamprey Faculty Fellow in Climate and Sustainability University of New EBC New Hampshire Chapter Program: Adaptation Strategies to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change 22 Oct 2013

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4 Although they produce distinct types of challenges, climate change, energy security, and economic stability are inextricably linked

5 carbon dioxide (ppmv) 1000 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Business as Usual Vostok Ice Core Clean Energy & Efficiency Current , , , ,000 0 Years Before 2100 AD IPCC 2001

6 Decadal global surface-air temperature (land and SST) WMO 2013

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8 Were You Ready for the Storm? Northeast US 30 October 2011 Newmarket, NH April 2007 Woodford, VT 28 Aug 2011 Seaside Heights, NJ Nov 2012

9 Northeast Winter Temperature Trends Burakowski et al., 2008, JGR

10 Northeast Winter Temperature Trends Burakowski et al., 2008, JGR

11 Ice-Out Dates

12 4 Inch Precipitation Events by Decade

13 24 hour 100-year Rainfall Design Storm TP-40 Rainfall Frequency Atlas used for effective conditions = 6.3 ( ) Northeast Regional Climate Center Atlas for Extreme Precipitation for current conditions = 8.5

14 Sea Level Rise at Portsmouth Harbor SLR: 0.7 inches per decade

15 Federal Expenditures on Presidentially Declared Disasters And Emergency Declarations in NH 1998: Ice Storm 2005: Alstead/Keene Floods (Oct) 2006: Mother s Day Flood (May) 2007: Patriots Day Flood (April) 2008: Tornado; Floods; Ice Storm 2010: Windstorm; Floods 2011: Irene 2012: Flooding; Sandy

16 Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios Key Input for GCM projections of future climate change IPCC 2007

17 Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast: Downscale Global Projections to Regional Level Projections from 3 or 4 different climate models: NOAA GFDL UKMO HadCM3 NCAR PCM NCAR CCSM3

18 Days per year over 90 o F Summer heat index: How hot summers will feel in New Hampshire

19 Annual Maximum Temperature, Southern NH (25 stations) Figure 12a

20 Annual Minimum Temperature, Southern NH (25 stations) Figure 13a

21 How Hot Will Summer be in Durham, NH?

22 Projected Changes in Extreme Precipitation Concord Durham Lawrence Portland NH NH MA ME

23 LOW EMISSIONS HIGH EMISSIONS

24 Lamprey River Watershed, New Hampshire

25 Lamprey River Watershed - Build Out Rates

26 Assessing Flood Risk in the Lamprey River Watershed, NH Newmarket, NH, April 2007, Patriots Day Storm

27 Assessing Flood Risk in the Lamprey River Watershed, NH Newmarket, NH, April 2007, Patriots Day Storm

28 NOTE: CHANGE IN STANDARD OF PRACTICE

29 Sea Level Change (inches) Projection of Sea Level Rise from 1990 to 2100 Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2009 PNAS to 6.3 ft Shepherd et al., 2012, Science 1.0 to 1.7 ft

30 Feet above low tide Stillwater Elevations for New Hampshire Seacoast

31 Stillwater Elevations for New Hampshire Seacoast

32 Stillwater Elevations for New Hampshire Seacoast

33 Stillwater Elevations for New Hampshire Seacoast

34 Stillwater Elevations for New Hampshire Seacoast

35 Stillwater Elevations for New Hampshire Seacoast

36 Stillwater Elevations for New Hampshire Seacoast

37 Stillwater Elevations for New Hampshire Seacoast Range in 100-year flood elevations (now to 2100) 11.2 to 19.7 feet above NAVD88 (or 7.2 to 15.7 feet above MHHW) NOTE: maps to follow are for 12 feet above MHHW (equal to 16.4 feet above NAVD 88)

38 High Tide + 12 feet Hampton & Seabrook, NH

39 What path will we take to the future? Two roads diverged in a wood, and I - I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference. Robert Frost

40 NH Climate Action Plan One of the largest, most diverse collections of leading NH citizens Promotes growth of new jobs and renewable energy development Reduces energy costs Identifies 67 recommended actions buildings electricity generation, transportation & land use natural resources government action adaptation Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 44% below 2005 levels by % below 2005 levels by 2050 More info at:

41 References & More Info: Infrastructure and Climate Network: TheICNet.org climate.gov Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: World Meteorological Organization Global Climate US 2013 National Climate Assessment: ncadac.globalchange.gov Cornel Precipitation Atlas: precip.eas.cornell.edu/ Carbon Solutions New England CarbonSolutionsNE.org site for various regional climate assessments for New England Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment Climate Science explained Other Papers and Reports:. Wake CP, P Frumhoff, J McCarthy, J Melillo, S Moser, and D Wuebbles (Eds)(2008) Special Issue: Assessment of Climate Change, Impacts, and Solutions in the Northeast United States. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 13(5-6), Burakowski EA, CP Wake, et al. (2008) Trends in Wintertime Climate in the Northeast United States, Journal of Geophysical Research. 113, D20114, doi: /2008jd Hayhoe K, CP Wake, et al. (2007) Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the U.S. Northeast. Climate Dynamics 28, doi: /s