Predic'ng fish connec'vity among Marine Protected Areas under climate change scenarios: management implica'ons and interplay with

Transcription

1 (1) Project Predic'ng fish connec'vity among Marine Protected Areas under climate change scenarios: management implica'ons and interplay with fisheries Op'mizing the network of Marine Protected Area in the Mediterranean 1) S. Manel, UMR 151 UP/ IRD, LPED, Marseille 2) D. Mouillot, UMR 5119 CNRS, UM2 / IFREMER / IRD/ ECOLAG, Montpellier 3) W. Thuiller, UMR CNRS 5553, UJF / LECA, Grenoble 1

2 A project of the FRB flagship programme Biodiversity modelling and scenarios With the support of 2

3 (2) Background Marine Protected Areas 1) Preserve habitats and biodiversity 2) EffecZve tools to manage fishery aczvizes by promozng spillover through dispersion Less than 1% of the sea surface of the planet is protected Partners of the ConvenZon on Biological Diversity aims ambizously to reach 10% by 2020 of sea surface protected Scenarios = promising tools 3

4 (2) Background The Mediteranean : 100 MPAs, 9910km2, 0.4% of the whole mediterranean sea surface Managers are organised in a network (MedPan,) 4

5 (2) Background (1) Stakeholders have prac'cal ques'ons that scenarios can help to solve: How many MPA? Where? Small? Large? MPAs have been established according to local socio economical contexts but not according to a regional strategy carried out at the Mediterranean scale Scenarios for the future design should consider i) anthropogenic pressures such as climate change, ii) that MPAs are connected by dispersal 5

6 (2) Background i) Climate change in the Mediterannean sea +3.1 C at the end of the century 6

7 (2) Background ii) MPA are connected: Seascape connectivity the degree to which the landscape facilitates or impedes movement among resource patches (Taylor et al. 1993; With et al. 1997) Dispersion Gene flow GeneZc diversity Seascape MPA MPA 7

8 (3) Objectives ScienZfic objeczves 1 Developing prediczve scenarios of the impact of climate change on the genezc conneczvity among MPAs. 2 Evaluate species response to the expected climate changes by quanzfying the changes in genezc diversity in MPAs and conneczvity among MPAs 8

9 (3) Objectives Applied queszons 1 Is the actual network design of MPAs appropriate to maintain conneczvity among fish populazons? 2 What is the expected impact of climate change on species persistence, conneczvity among marine reserves and their genezc diversity? 3 What would be the opzmal network of MPAs under current and future condizons? 9

10 (4) Scenarios : an integrative approach / dialog tool Landscape gene'cs Climate change MPA s managers OpZmal network of MPA Conserva'on Fishermans Ecosystem func'oning Marine biodiversity Economy Fishery scenarios 10

11 (5) Method: data An exhaus've spa'al database in the Mediteranean (2 projects ) Seascape data on a grid: sea surface temperatures, current flow, fisheries impacts, marine produczvity LocaZons of MPAs Fish occurrences for 600 species allowing the eszmazon of their distribuzons 11

12 (5) Method: scenarios Step 1: Seascape database Salinity, Temperature Occurence Fishing data Scenarios of climate change Step 2: 12 Species Step 3 SimulaZon of distribuzons and genezc conneczvity with CDPOP persistence MPA MPA MPA MPA MPA Seascape surface Cost distances MPA GeneZc diversity in MPAs GeneZc differenzazon among MPAs 12

13 (5) Method:scenarios (3) How to use scenarios Step 4: Relevance of current and future MPA design Gap analysis : assess the degree of representazon of species within exiszng protected area networks and idenzfy addizonal area requiring proteczon Reserve seleczon methods : idenzfy efficient reserve networks that will maximize the representazon of regional diversity 13

14 (6) Expected results (3) How to use scenarios Quan'ta've indicators of response to climate change of: Species persistence GeneZc diversity within MPAs GeneZc isolazon between MPAs 14

15 Thank you to the financial partners of this project 15

16 16

17 Biodiversité ichtyologique, réserves marines et pressions humaines sur le lixoral Méditerranéen ( ) Historique Modélisa'on de scénarios d évolu'on de la biodiversité ichtyologique méditerranéenne et stratégie de posi'onnement des aires marines protégées ( ) 17

18 Problématique scientifique Pression anthropique Invasions exotiques Changement global Erosion de la biodiversité Décrire Comprendre Stratégie de positionnement des AMP Prédire & anticiper les patrons de diversité. 18

19 Décrire les patrons de diversité ichtyologique 619 espèces 19

20 Réserves Pressions de pêche 20

21 FRB - DIVERSITAS Pourquoi la Méditerranée? Conference 0.82% de la surface et 0.32% du volume de l océan mondial 4 à 18% des espèces marines dans le monde 21

22 Projeter les futurs gains/pertes de biodiversité 22