WESTERN WILDLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS ASSESSMENT CENTER. Nancy Grulke, WWETAC John B. Kim, Pacific Northwest Research Station & WWETAC

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1 WESTERN WILDLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS ASSESSMENT CENTER Nancy Grulke, WWETAC John B. Kim, Pacific Northwest Research Station & WWETAC

2 WWETAC DIRECTOR: FUNDING: Nancy Grulke US Forest Service DURATION: 20 year charter, through 2020 MISSION: STAKEHOLDERS: Develop and deliver useful & timely information and science to land managers Western U.S. land managers and resource specialists

3 WWETAC

4 WWETAC products Annotated bibliographies: Climate change and bark beetles Climate change and forest diseases Bark beetle effects on ecosystem services Syntheses: Wildfire risk in bark beetle outbreak areas Effects of beetle outbreaks on ecosystem water and N dynamics

5 WWETAC products Case studies: Climate change effects on sage grouse habitat Carbon storage of warm deserts & climate change Climate envelopes for Armillaria root disease Hawaii: mangrove root rot, guava rust

6 WWETAC products Assessments: Socioeconomic vulnerability of Forest Service Regions 5, 6 Policy groups for communicating climate change mitigation tools on private lands Climate change vulnerability assessment for the Sky Islands Communication tools: Climate change toolkit Short course on climate change for managers

7 WWETAC products Social Dimensions: Assessed risk perception and management strategies of private forest owners for invasive plants (Fischer & Charnley 2012) Identified policy target groups of nonindustrial private forest lands with regard to wildfire risk (Fischer, Kline, Charnley, Olsen 2012) Developed an understanding of private land owner vulnerabilities and management strategies for mitigation of climate change (Fischer) Socioeconomic vulnerability assessments (Forest Service Regions 5 & 6)

8 WWETAC tools ArcFuels fuel treatment planning Landscape Treatment Designer (LTD) optimization tool for treatment placement within the landscape LSIM tradeoff tool for economics of fuels treatments Wildfire effects on fish habitat/riparian sediment Post-fire tree mortality prediction LIDAR and hyperspectral tools NewsCrawler for Western Threats Weed spread models Geospatial library of threats plus more!

9 TACCIMO The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) delivers extremely user-friendly access to the most current climate change science

10 WWETAC Wildland Threat Mapper google WWETAC library of 200+ GIS layers, including high value resources, drought indices, and output from dynamic vegetation model MC2 MODIS NEAR REAL TIME products

11 Seed Zone Mapper Allows end-users to view and acquire data on seed zones for use in plant material development, gene conservation and native plant restoration activities.

12 Wildfire Risk Mapper summarizes on a subwatershed level within national forest boundaries, the burn probability, conditional flame length, and flame length probability for each of 6 flame length classes.

13 ForWarn ForWarn provides near-real-time tracking of vegetation changes across landscapes in the United States. Useful for both monitoring disturbance events as well as year-to-year variability. Uses MODIS satellite data.

14 ArcFuels streamlined fuel management planning and wildfire risk assessment toolbar implemented in ArcMap which creates a multiple-scale interface to apply various forest growth (e.g., FVS) and fire behavior models (e.g., FlamMap) to design and test fuel treatment alternatives.

15 MC2 DGVM Process-based vegetation model to simulate climate change impacts on vegetation Blue Mountains Ecoregion Oregon

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17 WWETAC application tools IN DEVELOPMENT FP DECK, searchable database of forest plans: Feeds in climate change literature from TACCIMO and linkable to maps of projected changes in vegetation and C balance. 1/3 of western National Forest Plans have been input to date. FIDAR, a forest disturbance assessment tool: Drought, insect outbreak, and pathogen mapper. Uses ForWarn-detected disturbance, and overlays imagery onto Forests FACTS data bases to estimate types of stands affected by tree age. NRT Pheno_Mapper, a grazing optimization tool: Uses ForWarn-detected disturbance to assess timing and duration of range productivity to optimize management

18 FIDAR Overlays ForWarn imagery onto Forests FACTS data bases to estimate types of stands affected by tree age Rapid update: every 5 days Detect & map drought, insect outbreak, and pathogen Reduction in NDVI Red = high reduction Pink = medium reduction Yellow = low reduction Green = no reduction

19 FIDAR: landscape example X MEDICINE BOW- ROUTT NF Medicine Bow- Routt NF STAND COMPOSITION DISTURBANCE, Class Rank (Mean NDVI loss) Rank (Area) Combined Rank PICO-H-Med WL-H-Med MIXED-H-Large PICO-M-Large PICO-M-Med TOP 5 STAND TYPES, COVER, AND SIZE CLASS AFFECTED BY NATIVE INSECT OUTBREAKS SCHRADER, GRULKE, SPRUCE, DRESSLER, subm.

20 NRT Pheno Mapper Overlays MODIS imagery on grassland database. Detect green up, maximum greenness, and brown down relative to 15 year historical data. mid spring Maximum NDVI (greenness) mid fall

21 WWETAC provides many products & tools to address environmental change, invasives, assessments, and fire risk. or just search for WWETAC