Update on FLEGT IMM and opportunities for the market. Rupert Oliver, ITTO/EC Independent Market Monitor for the VPA process

Transcription

1 Update on FLEGT IMM and opportunities for the market Rupert Oliver, ITTO/EC Independent Market Monitor for the VPA process

2 FLEGT Independent Market Monitoring Required in the text of some Voluntary Partnership Agreements (VPAs) Market impact of Timber Legality Assurance Systems Hosted by International Tropical Timber Organisation (ITTO) Funded by EC through DG International Cooperation and Development Budget: 4.4 million over 5 years ( ) 2

3 Presentation structure Update on IMM Actions and Output IMM-EFI reproducible analysis and on-line database of world trade flows Baseline report Concluding comments

4 IMM Actions and outputs

5 IMM Methodology & Organisation IMM quantitative indicators reviewed and finalised in 2014 Centrally co-ordinated team of consultants VPA country correspondents to provide improved data on production, trade and investment trends in response to VPA EU Survey Team producing regularly updated data and systematic analysis of drivers of change including: Analysis of timber products imported from VPA countries, their distribution channels, applications in the EU, and substitution trends Interactions between VPA licensing and forest certification Impact of EUTR, public and private sector procurement policies, green building

6 Production and Trade Baseline Mar 2015 IMM Reports VPA Partner Scoping Studies Sept 2015 Annual Report Nov EU Member State Scoping Studies Forest Investment Baseline Sept 2015 Sept 2015

7 Other IMM Outputs in 2015 IMM scoping visits to Cameroon, Congo Republic Market opportunities workshops? Quarterly e-newsletter Website at Market Input to EUTR Biennial Review and FLEGT Review Market data support for other agencies involved in FLEGT VPA process FLEGT VPA related coverage in the media

8 IMM-EFI Reproducible analysis and on-line database of world trade flows

9 IMM-EFI Reproducible analysis and on-line database of world trade flows IMM financial support for set-up costs EFI commitment to maintain system long term Based on Comtrade data, to be extended to COMEXT Software developed in R Assumes value data is most accurate Statistical analysis of unit prices, unit weights & comparison of import and export flows 9

10 Sample output from EFI R- based trade flows cleaning package for other sawn hardwood mill m3 COMTRAD Amended Quantity change Change ratio

11 IMM-EFI project outputs R statistical package and documentation on web and open source Live database of "cleaned" trade flow data Automated updating routines Downloadable spreadsheet (.csv, Excel) Graphical user interface Dynamic visualisation tool (e.g. social network analysis) Basic user interface finalised April 2015, full interface July

12 IMM Baseline Report

13 IMM Baseline Report Considers VPA partner role in global timber trade Reviews competitiveness of VPA partner timber in EU market Share in different market segments (logs, sawn, decking, plywood, flooring, furniture etc.) Systematic analysis of factors impacting on EU trade in timber from VPA countries

14 Trends in global tropical timber trade 14

15 Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE 15

16 Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE 16

17 Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE 17

18 VPA Partners in International trade 18

19 Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE 19

20 Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE 20

21 Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE 21

22 Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE 22

23 Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE 23

24 VPA Partners in EU trade 24

25 Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT

26 Eurostat construction production index =100 26

27 Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT

28 Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT

29 Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT

30 Barriers Barriers Financial crises & fall out Product innovation in nonwood materials Shift in global economic activity to emerging markets Less availability of big name tropical hardwoods Freight & transport factors EU production of panels & new surfacing technologies More hardwoods from Europe and N. America Global plantation expansion Wood modification Prefabrication in construction Exchange rate movements Barriers Opportunities Interior design trends Forest certification Environmental campaigns Marketing initiatives Architect and structural engineer s timber knowledge Technical performance standards & CE Marking Green building Public procurement Corporate Social Responsibility Neutral Opportunities EU Timber Regulation (EUTR) FLEGT VPA process GSP and timber import tariffs Climate change/carbon footprint Hardwood use for higher value structural applications IMM Baseline Report Systematic Review of Factors Impacting on EU market for timber from VPA countries

31 Concluding comments Can t keep working in yesterday s markets Dynamics of tropical wood market transformed over last decade Decline in relative role of EU in tropical trade (short term?) reinforces: Importance of collective action on consumer side Need for more effective market development strategy in EU Central role for VPA process - wide international coverage - critical mechanism for EU engagement in tropical countries a solid foundation for tropical wood market development but VPA licensing is not a magic bullet to overcome all market constraints Post-2009 rebound in N. American and Japanese market Opportunities for tropical products in industrialised nations But unique characteristics of EU market Large, creative & innovative domestic manufacturing sector is very dominant Opportunities lie in: Match species to specific end-uses, support with data both technical performance and environmental Moving up product value chain 31

32 Thank you! IMM brochure available Rupert Oliver 32

33 Proposed Timber Market Monitoring Network Facilitate info exchange, avoid duplication, improve market monitoring practices & stats, common data protocols Open to any organisation directly engaged in market monitoring ITTO, EFI, Eurostat, FAO, UNECE, Indufor, ATIBT, STTC, Global Timber Forum, Chatham House, WRI, Forest Trends Don t want to reinvent the wheel! 33

34 UN COMTRADE Expert User EFI-IMM: database Load periodically Web server Compare Display Report by country or by product (PDF) Export Excel and other formats Explore Search Engine & Visualisation of world trade flows Package tradeflows Clean Create Report Raw data Database Validated data

35 Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT

36 Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE 36