Modeling risk on planted forests in South Africa

Transcription

1 Modeling risk on planted forests in South Africa Ilaria Germishuizen Institute for Commercial Forestry Research (ICFR) Pietermaritzburg (South Africa) ICFR 2014

2 Background: Forestry in South Africa Static land base of ha (1% of the country). Plantations of exotic tree species (Genera: Pinus, 52%; Eucalyptus, 40%; Acacia, 7%; Other, 1%). Single species even age units/compartments. Short rotation (pulp: 6 14 years; sawtimber: years). 2 Summer rainfall region Winter rainfall region All year rain

3 Research focus 3 Risk modeling Climate change - Shifts in optimal forestry areas - Drought risk - Fire risk - Frost risk - Site x genotype matching breeding strategy - Adapting silvicultural practices to reduce risk and enhance productivity Pests and pathogens - Bioclimatic risk models - Sensitivity studies } New and existing P&D

4 Climate change 4 Six Global Circulation Models (GCM) Regionally downscaled SRES: A2 Monthly precipitation, tmax, tmin from 1960 to 2100 Model Name Institution Country Mk3.5, 2001 Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) Australia GFDL-CM2.0, 2005 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Unites States GFDL-CM2.1, 2005 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Unites States MIROC 3.2, 2004 Centre for Climate System Research (CCSR), University of Tokyo Japan ECHAM 5, MPI-OM, 2005 Marx Plank Institute for Meteorology Germany UKMO-HadGEM1, 2004 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office United Kingdom Main trends for Southern Africa: MAT increases up to twice global rate MAP: Some areas becoming dryer, other wetter. Erratic rainfall patterns. Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events (drought, extreme temperatures, extreme rainfall events)

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9 Remote sensing for monitoring Aridity Index: 9 MODIS 16 Data (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, NASA) Modis data used to develop an Aridity Index based on Tsakiris & Vangelis (2005): a = 1 a = 0 Rainfall (P) = Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) Drought Zululand - Coastal Aridity Index Long Term Aridity Index Stand growth (Diameter at Breast Height (DBH) increase)

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11 Current dominant species in SA plantation forestry Pinus patula Pinus elliottii Pinus taeda Eucalyptus grandis Eucalyptus nitens Eucalyptus smithii Eucalyptus grandis x Eucalyptus urophylla Acacia mearnsii

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13 Pests and pathogens A major and growing threat to the forestry sector in South Africa Strongly climate driven Susceptibility increased by physiological stress } Linked to climate change Case study: Leptocybe invasa (Eucalyptus gall wasp)

14 14 Climate change models indicate that South Africa is shifting towards drier conditions Indigenous vegetation most affected: forest and grassland biomes Loss in biodiversity, species Plantation forestry heavily affected Sustainability at risk Thank you