Climate Change and the Kootenay Boundary

Transcription

1 Climate Change and the Kootenay Boundary Flood, Fire & Famine: Forum on Building Resilience to Global Climate Change in the Boundary September 26, 2013 Kettle River Watershed Planning Regional District of Kootenay Boundary Christina Lake, BC Greg Utzig Kutenai Nature Investigations Ltd. Nelson, BC CANADA

2 Climate Change Projects Vulnerability/ Resilience Assessment of West Kootenay Forest Ecosystems Funded by BC Government MoFLNRO - Future Forest Ecosystem Scientific Council Climate Change Conservation Planning Funded by ENGOs Wildsight and Conservation Northwest Climate Information Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) U of Victoria Climate Western North America (ClimateWNA) BC MoFLNRO, UBC, U of A Edmonton Climate Impacts Group (CIG) U of WA International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2

3 Weather and Climate Weather Day-to-day variation in temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind and atmospheric pressure the state of the atmosphere at a particular time Climate World Climates Averages or extremes of temperature, precipitation and other atmospheric variables over longer periods of time (months, years, decades, centuries) 3

4 Weather and Climate Variability Climate Oscillations Climate Change Multi-decadal oscillations Long-term trends or in regional climate (e.g. major shifts in climate PDO, NAO) (mulit-decadal to centuryscale) Climate Variability From: Reasoner CBT Short term: (years to decadal) rises and falls about the trend 4 line (ENSO)

5 Trend of Mean Annual Temperature Columbia Basin (30 year normals ) From: Murdock PCIC-CBT 5

6 Frequency of occurrence Increase in Mean Temperature Historical Climate New Climate Cold Average Adapted from: Reasoner 2012 Hot 6

7 Probability of occurrence Increase in Mean Temperature More Hot Weather Historical Climate Loss of Coldest Weather New Record Hot Weather New Climate Cold Average Hot Adapted from: Reasoner

8 European Summer Temperatures ( anomalies relative to mean) coldest years 5 warmest years 8 From: Coumou and Ramstorf 2012

9 Frequency of occurrence Increase in Variance (more extremes) Historical Climate More Cold Weather Cold More Hot Weather New Climate Average Hot New Record Cold Weather New Record Hot Weather Adapted from: Reasoner

10 Frequency of occurrence Increase in Mean Temperature & Variance Historical Climate New Climate Cold Average Hot Adapted from: Reasoner

11 Frequency of occurence Increase in Mean Temperature & Variance Much More Hot Weather and Record Hot Weather Historical Climate Reduced, but Continuing Cold Weather Cold New Climate Average Hot Adapted from: Reasoner

12 Decadal Summer Temperature Anomalies Frequency of Occurrence Northern Hemisphere Land ( reference period) Adapted from: Hansen et al Temperature Anomalies (oc) 12

13 Climatic Extremes Heat waves Drought High intensity rainstorms/ flooding Windstorms/ tonadoes Lightening storms Hail storms Ice storms Early spring heat/ late frost combinations Mechanisms? Jet Stream Modifications Increased amplitude Reduced rate of movement Weather systems stall Calgary & SE BC - June, 2013 Grand Forks, BC - July, 2012 Crossfields, AB - July, 2012 High Low Boundary Sentinel High 13

14 Climatic Extremes 2013 Example High Precipitation Event Precipitation June 18-21, 2013 Upper Elk River Upper Hamill Creek Buhl Creek Hamill Creek Lower Hamill Creek Schroeder Creek Fry Creek Photos: Peter Jordan, Peter Holmes, Tina Zimmermann, Bob Yetter 14

15 Climatic Extremes 2012 Example Monthly Precipitation/ Rapid Snowmelt - Johnson s Landing June Precipitation: 1901 to : 206 mm Precipitation (mm) Maximum (1963): 120 mm Mean : 61 mm (preliminary data, subject to correction) Impacts 4 people killed 4 houses destroyed 6 properties damaged/ loss of access Community water system destroyed Main road destroyed Damage to utilities Ongoing future risks TMTV Increased Soil Moisture Decreased Soil Strength Landslide (July 12, 2012) 15

16 We Are the Cause CO2 levels are now higher than anytime in at least 2.1m years May (+3ppm/yr) From: Petit 2000 and CO2now.org 16

17 General Circulation Models (GCMs) Global Climate Models Mathematical representations of the global climate system 3D pixels representing atmospheric conditions at various elevations around the earth through time 17 From: IPCC AR4 WG1

18 Modeling - Future Projections Greenhouse Gas Emissions various potential scenarios Scenarios Scenarios From: IPCC 2007 and From: IPCC 2007 and 2009 Copenhagen Diagnosis Copenhagen Diagnosis

19 Modeling - Future Projections Greenhouse Gas Emissions various potential scenarios Scenarios From: IPCC 2007 and Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009 Current emissions exceed all projections 19

20 GCM / Scenario Combinations 2050s Mean Projections for British Columbia Annual Temperature and Precipitation Very Hot/ Dry MIROC32hires A1B-run1 Hot/ Wet Warm/ Moist Blue diamonds recommended scenarios Green/ Purple - scenarios investigated for the Kootenays Adapted from: Murdock and Spittlehouse

21 Data from: PCIC Regional Analysis Tool and Plan2Adapt 21

22 Data from: PCIC Regional Analysis Tool and Plan2Adapt 22

23 Variability: Past vs. Potential Future for the Columbia Basin Note that the projected annual temperature shifts far exceed historical variability (20th century), while the projected precipitation shifts do not. From: Murdock PCIC-CBT 23

24 Biogeoclimatic (BEC) Zones By: Daniel Mosquin Engelmann Spruce Subalpine Fir Ponderosa Pine Interior Cedar Hemlock Grasslands/ Sage Brush 24

25 Biogeoclimatic Zones Elevation (m) Northeast Southwest Monashees 2000 Okanagan Highlands 1500 Dry Engelmann Spruce Subalpine Fir 1000 Montane Spruce Kettle / Granby Valleys Interior Douglas-fir 500 Ponderosa Pine/ Grasslands 25

26 Ecosystem Units as Bioclimate Envelopes Biogeoclimatic Zones Cold / wet xo Maritime X? o Continental Warm / dry Adapted from: Hamann and Wang 2006 & Roberts and Hamann

27 Alpine Alpine parkland Wet subalpine forest Dry subalpine forest Coastal hemlock Transitional coast/ interior hemlock Montane/sub-boreal spruce forest Wet interior cedar/ hemlock Moist interior cedar/ hemlock Dry interior cedar hemlock Grand fir/ Douglas-fir Wet Douglas-fir Dry Douglas-fir Ponderosa pine savanah Grassland/ steppe A Range of Projected Bioclimate Envelopes 27

28 Bioclimate Envelopes and Ecosystems Study Area Alpine Alpine parkland Wet subalpine forest Dry subalpine forest Coastal hemlock Transitional coast/ interior hemlock Montane/sub-boreal spruce forest Wet interior cedar/ hemlock Moist interior cedar/ hemlock Dry interior cedar hemlock Grand fir/ Douglas-fir Wet Douglas-fir Dry Douglas-fir Ponderosa pine savanah Grassland/ steppe 28 Original data from: Roberts and Hamann, U of A

29 Habitat projections for Ponderosa Pine Current 2020s 29 From: Laura Gray 2010

30 Habitat projections for Ponderosa Pine Current 2050s 30 From: Laura Gray 2010

31 Habitat projections for Ponderosa Pine Current From: Laura Gray s 31

32 Habitat projections for Engelmann Spruce Current From: Laura Gray s 32

33 Habitat projections for Engelmann Spruce Current From: Laura Gray s 33

34 Habitat projections for Engelmann Spruce Current 2080s 34 From: Laura Gray 2010

35 West Kootenay Fire History yr Running Average Annual Area Burned Annual Area Burned (ha) North 6000 Area Burned Year Annual Area Burned (ha) years 50-90, yr Running Average Annual Area Burned South Year Touchstones Archives, Nelson 35

36 Changes in Area Burned Kutetl 2003 Sitkum 2007 Jordan

37 Insects/ Pathogens /Decline Syndromes Tree decline drought/ resistance Bark Beetles Defoliators, blights, pathogens Mountain pine beetle, spruce bark beetle, Ips beetles, Douglas-fir beetle.. Spruce budworm, dothistroma, larch needle cast, root disease (A) Regions Complex Interactions From: Raffa et al (B) Elevation (C) Stem diameter (D) Genus (E) Fire return interval Birch die-back, yellow cedar, 5-needle pines 37

38 Ecosystem Response Ecosystem Range Shifts Ecosystem Re-organization 38

39 Hydrologic Changes Direct Effects 10 GCMs A1B scenario VIC hydrology model Reduced snow storage Increased winter flows Reduced spring peak flows Reduced summer/fall low flows Snow (w.e. in) Flow (in) Indirect Effects Loss of forest cover increased erosion and snowmelt rates Increased irrigation demands, decreased water availability From: CIG Univ. WA 39

40 Climate Climate Change Temperature / Precipitation Seasonal / Annual Variability Extremes Human Activities Windthrow Geomorphic Processes Fire Hydrologic Processes Water? Aquatic Species Habitats R i p a r i a n Terrestrial Species Habitats Soils Epidemic Pests/ Pathogens Invasive Species Topography Parent Material Reorganization Ecosystem Services - Resources - Natural Hazards Human Society Mitigation Management / Policy Response Adaptation 40

41 What to do? Adaptation Increase research and modeling to anticipate changes Increase monitoring to provide early warning of surprises Increase conservation to aid natural adaptation Plan for change rethink everything we are doing now Mitigation STOP burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) Eliminate other GHG emissions (cement, landfills) Conserve energy Look for adaptation-mitigation combinations Use wood from interface fire treatments to displace fossil fuels for heat Protect forests to sequester carbon and assist ecosystem adaptation Increase building insulation to reduce fuel use and adapt to summer heat waves 41

42 Challenges Opportunities Forestry/ Ecosystems Challenges Increasing fire frequency and intensity Changing habitats and consequent species loss Reforestation/ restoration species suitability Chipping Slash Opportunities Harvesting/ silviculture treatments to increase resilience and decrease interface fire risk Using wood waste to replace fossil fuels Increased grassland habitats and rangelands Hazard Reduction Example Fuels for Schools program School Boiler 42

43 CO2 Emission Reductions are the ONLY solution. Thank You We have options, but past is not one of them Sauchyn and Kulshreshtha 2008, p.295 Times have changed no longer is our goal sustainable development. our goal must now be sustainable survival Blackstock 2008, p.15 kootenayresilience.org 43