The future of forestry in the Nordic-Baltic region EFINORD North European Regional Office of European Forest Institute

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1 The future of forestry in the Nordic-Baltic region EFINORD North European Regional Office of European Forest Institute Vilis Brukas, May 4,

2 Aims of EFINORD: - Regional synergies by forest research networking - European dimensions into Nordic forest research cooperation - Promote research of North European relevance - Communication of forest research

3 forest sector contribution to GDP, in % (2008) Russian Federation 0.8 North Europe 2.2 Central-West Europe 0.8 Central-East Europe 1.6 South East Europe 0.7 South West Europe 0.8 Europe 1.0

4 Forest Regions in the EU (compiled from several studies) European forest regions Group of countries Forest area Economic significance of forest sector Forest policy priorities Approach to balancing ecosystem goods and services 1. Globalized wood production: Nordic countries + Austria Austria, Finland, Sweden Relatively large Major Wood production Recreation & biodiversity conservation mostly in protected areas 2. Countries in transition: Eastern Europe 3. Forest plantations: Atlantic Rim Western Europe 4. Low forest management intensity: Southern Europe 5. Broader multifunctional forestry: Central Europe Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Poland, Romania Slovenia Denmark, Ireland, United Kingdom Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain France, Germany Mostly relatively large area, parcelled properties Small in relative and absolute terms Parcelled forests Mostly relatively large, partly parcelled properties Moderate Minor Minor Moderate Wood and non-wood products; property right issues Wood and other nonwood products Non-wood products and functions Wood production, recreation, nature Recreation, biodiversity, conservation partly integrated in SFM, partly in protected areas Protective or protected forests, timber also important. Semi-natural forests for recreation and biodiversity conservation Low intensity of forestry Recreation, biodiversity conservation partly integrated in SFM, partly in protected areas 6. Urban society service influenced region: North Western Europe Belgium, The Netherlands Luxembourg, Small, fragmented properties Marginal Nature conservation and recreation

5 A Nordic-Baltic specification of forest regions 1. Timber producers 2. Drifting towards or away from timber production? Countries Forest area Economic significance of forest sector Finland, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia Lithuania? Forest policy priorities Large Major Economically viable forest sector Rather large Moderate Wood and non-wood products Norway? 3. Providers of social services 4. Emerging forestry Denmark Small in relative and absolute terms Minor Non-wood products and services Iceland Minor Minor Afforestation

6 Selected trends 1 Forest resources: public perceptions vs. actual state How important are the following uses of Forests? Not important Little important Important Very important Timber supply Protection Biodiversity Recreation Forest area

7 How important are the following uses of Forests? Forestry students & EU-Citizens - Timber supply Protection Biodiversity Recreation Forest Area Share of Respondents within the category "very important" in % Citizens of GE, FR, IT, UK, AU 1998 Students EUROFORESTER 2008 Source: Rametsteiner, E. (1998): Einstellungen zu Wald, Holz, Umwelt und Nachhaltigkeitszeichen in Österreich und in Europa

8 Representative surveys of public opinion: development of forest area Lithuania: Share of forests is declining: 77% of respondents Share of forests is stable: 18% of respondents Share of forests is increasing: 5% of respondents

9 Annual rate of change in forest area by regions in Europe, , percent of forest area/year (FOREST EUROPE 2011)

10 Trends in total growing stock in forests, (UNECE-FAO, 2011) The growing stock in Nordic and Baltic countries increased by c. 20% in The felling rate (harvesting/increment ratio) constituted c. 70%

11 Selected trends 2: climate change impacts on forest Considerable increase; Slight increase; Considerable decrease; Slight decrease; No or insignificant change

12 Selected trends 3: climate change Percentage change in net primary productivity (NPP) of natural vegetation between and (Fronzek and Carter 2007) Changes in NPP (%) for Scots pine, Norway spruce compared to (Bergh et al. (2010)

13 Will forest utilisation decrease? Public favors biodiversity Stricter environmental policies Increase of protected areas Greener silviculture (by > regulation or by > subsidies?) Fellings, million m3/year an X-factor: Competition from tropical plantations

14 Will forest utilisation increase? Fellings, million m 3 /year Climate change Genetic improvements Faster tree growth Accumulating timber stock Growing global and regional demand for forest products, esp. bioenergy New products, e.g. textile pulp Short-rotation plantations

15 Future Nordic-Baltic forestry My best guess: the intensity of forest utilisation will increase, while forestry will also turn greener and more socialised a Pan-European scenario analysis foresees 10-40% increase of fellings by 2030 in the Nordic-Baltic region (UNECE-FAO, 2011) Whatever the outcome, it is obvious that forest science will continue to grow in complexity with expanding thematic breadth as well as need for deeper specialisation Growing need for intensified research & research training

16 Number of PhD students in forestry at NOVA-BOVA members, status 2006 (Brukas & Churski 2008)

17 Number of forestry-related PhD courses at members of NOVA-BOVA status in 2005 (Brukas & Churski 2008) Number of all NOVA courses from this: in forestry NOVA courses

18 Opinions of research training coordinators about advantages and disadvantages of increased joint researcher training in forestry in the Nordic-Baltic region (2006)

19 Dreaming future? Increased number of NOVA PhD courses? EFINORD encourages its research networks to apply to NOVA? NOVA encourages course organisers apply for EFINORD-SNS networks? Systematically linking NOVA networks in forestry with SNS-EFINORD networks? For more information: EFINORD: SNS/EFINORD network call (deadline June 1):

20 Selected references On the current state and future scenarios of European forests: FOREST EUROPE, UNECE and FAO 2011: State of Europe s Forests Status and Trends in Sustainable Forest Management in Europe. UNECE and FAO The European Forest Sector Outlook Study II (EFSOS II) On internationalisation of forestry education at PhD and MSc level: Brukas, V. and M. Churski Intensive forestry research training and its internationalisation in the Baltic Sea region. Baltic Forestry 14 (1): Brukas, V. and Chubinsky, M Forestry Education towards Common European Space. Proceedings of the Conference at the St. Petersburg State Forest Technical Academy, Russia, November 26-27, pp.