JUST THREE WEEKS TO GO!

Transcription

1 CONFERENCE PREVIEW #6: APRIL 16, 2014 JUST THREE WEEKS TO GO! THE GLOBAL SOFTWOOD LOG & LUMBER CONFERENCE 2014 Vancouver, BC Wednesday, May 7, 2014 Hyatt Regency Hotel, Vancouver In conjunction with: PwC s 27th Annual Global Forest & Paper Industry Conference: May 6, 2014 AND OPTIONAL 2-DAY FOREST & INDUSTRY TOUR: Two optional one-day tours of the B.C. Coast forests, log processing mills (sawmills, veneer) and log sorting/exporting loading facilities. Draft itinerary follows: May 8th (Vancouver/Lower Mainland area) View large cedar sawmill cutting for North American and export markets Visit old growth, large log, specialty-cutting sawmill Visit an engineered wood facility producing for North American and export markets Subject to scheduling, observe the loading of logs onto an ocean going vessel. May 9th (Vancouver Island - Nanaimo area) Visit modernized, high speed, structural lumber sawmill Visit the largest rotary veneer mill in B.C. View amazing old growth forest Attend logging operation harvesting second-growth logs See log loading onto an ocean vessel for export to Asia (subject to scheduling of vessel) Limited spaces available, so book your spot early. For conference and tour details, visit our website at

2 We have twelve industry experts to speak at our one-day conference. This week we are profiling the following speakers: Brian Leslie, Technical Advisor, Wood Products,Forestry Innovation Consulting India Pvt.Ltd., India Slava Bychkov, Managing Director, Communications, Ilim Timber Industry, Russia In the first five Conference Preview newsletters, we featured the following 10 speakers: Rodrigo Valiente, VP Sawmills & Millwork, CMPC Maderas, Chile Shawn Lawlor, Director Japan Operations, Canada Wood (COFI), Japan John Langley, GM, Export Sales & Marketing, Tolko., Canada Brian Frank, President & CEO, TimberWest, Canada Wayne Guthrie, Sr VP, Sales & Marketing, Canfor, Canada Bruce Glass, Forest Economist, Campbell Group LLC, USA Mans Johansson, Vice CEO and part-owner, Vida, Sweden Steve McIntosh, Marketing & Sales Manager, Nelson Forests, New Zealand Henry Lin, China Supply Logs Project Director, Superchain Logisitcs Development Co, China Russell Taylor, President, International WOOD MARKETS Group, Canada

3 SESSION 3. INTERNATIONAL REGIONS TOPIC: Chile & Brazil: Industry & Export Outlook Rodrigo Valiente VP Sawmills & Millwork CMPC Maderas, Chile Mr. Valiente leads the Production & Sales team of Radiata Lumber & Millwork, from 3 sawmills and 2 millworks mills, located in the South of Chile. It has a commercial portfolio that covers 75% in foreign markets, including USA, EEC, Japan, Arabian Gulf and China as its main markets. The Chilean market accounts for 25% of sales. Annual sales are an estimated US$ 300 million per year. He is also a Member of the Board of CMPC USA, an Atlanta, Georgia company that sells products in the USA and Canada from CMPC Maderas, Bosques Del Plata (Argentina), Forsac and CMPC Cartulinas. Mr. Valiente, has been with CMPC since 1992, and acquired his recent role just recently on January 1, His previous positions at CMPC Maderas were VP Logistics & International Services from , Commercial VP from 2000 through 2011, as well as Manager of Sales in Europe, Middle East and USA, together with managing shipping and logistics. Prior to CMPC, he started his international trade career at Prochile, the Chilean Trade Agency, holding positions in Miami, USA and Sao Paulo, Brazil as Trade Commissioner, promoting Chilean non-traditional exports. Mr. Valiente has an Industrial Civil Engineer degree from Universidad Catolica de Chile (Catholic University of Chile). Mr. Valiente will address the following topics: Chile & Brazil s current status in the softwood markets: Actual situation on production capacity and real export volumes available to offer Markets from the Chilean view for Radiata and Elliotis/Taeda pine. Will softwood pulp consumption affect lumber availability and offers? Local market growth: impact on exports from Chile & Brazil to world markets Forecast on our business for the next 2 years.

4 SESSION 1. GLOBAL/ JAPAN/ RUSSIA TOPIC: Japan: Lumber & Log Outlook Shawn Lawlor Director, Japan Operations Canada Wood, (COFI), Japan Shawn Lawlor graduated from the University of Ottawa in Upon graduation, he worked in Japan as an English language teacher in Kochi Prefecture under the Japan Ministry of Education s JET program. He then returned to Canada to complete post graduate studies under Capilano University s Asia Pacific Management Program. After graduating in 1995, Shawn began his career in the forest products sector as Japan export sales manager of value added building materials and Western Red Cedar products with Crestwood International Industries. In 1998, Shawn joined Doman Western Forest Products as a lumber trader for Coastal B.C. forest product exports to China and Japan. In 2004 he joined Tembec Forest Products where he served as Sales Manager responsible for 400 million board feet of annual Industrial and Specialty SPF sales to North American and export markets. In 2007 he joined the Council of Forest Industries / Canada Wood Tokyo Office as Director, Japan Operations. His key role in this capacity is to manage market access and trade development initiatives on behalf of Canada s forest industry as well as federal and provincial government funding agencies. Shawn also currently leads the implementation of Canada s Tohoku Reconstruction Projects. He has served as Governor and Past Vice President of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Japan and participates in a number of Japanese housing industry association committees. Shawn will be discussing the following themes on the Japanese market: 1. Japan Economic Overview: The impact of Abenomics and Outlook for Japan s Economy 2. Japan Housing Market Drivers & Trends: Recent statistical trends on Japan s wood frame housing market Anticipated Impact of the Japanese Consumption Tax Increase Update on Reconstruction Activities in the Tohoku Region following the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake Japan s Wood Use Points Program 3. Outlook for Increased Wood Use in Japan s Non-Residential Segment Summary of Current Codes & Standards Revisions impact on increased wood use Progress Update on Expanded Wood Use for Canadian Forest Products in Japan s Non- Residential Building Sector 4. Outlook for Log & Lumber Imports

5 SESSION 2. ASIA TOPIC: China Lumber: Imports & Market Outlook John will address the following topic: John Langley GM, Export Sales & Marketing Tolko, Canada China Softwood Market Update and Outlook: Last 5 years : Import volumes lumber and logs Price trends Customers and terms of trade Demand drivers (end use sectors) Supply trends 2014 Outlook: Import volumes lumber and logs Price trends Customers and terms of trade Demand drivers (end use sectors) Supply trends. John Langley is General Manager, Export Sales and Marketing for Tolko Marketing and Sales Ltd. John holds a Bachelor of Science (Forestry) from UBC and has an extensive background in wood products production, marketing, distribution and supply chain management. He has over 30 years of experience marketing lumber and panel products to global markets. Tolko is a leading marketer of Canadian softwood lumber to Asian markets and serves wood products customers in more than 30 countries worldwide.

6 SESSION 4. NORTH AMERICA TOPIC: BC Coast: Industry Situation & Log Exports Brian will be discussing the following themes: Brian Frank President & CEO TimberWest, Canada Coastal BC Do We Have a Vision for the Forestry Industry? Brian Frank joined TimberWest as President and Chief Executive Officer in May Brian comes to TimberWest with an extensive background in the natural resources industry at the executive level, most recently as the Chief Executive of Global Oil Europe and Finance for BP in London, England. He has also recently held the positions of President, BP Energy Company in Houston, Texas, and President and CEO of BP Canada Energy Company in Calgary, Alberta. Prior to joining BP, Brian spent ten years at Natural Resources Canada in Ottawa and as such has the benefit of extensive private and public sector experience. Overview of the BC Coast logging sector and log exports. Overview of policy and regulatory framework for BC Coast Forest Industry. Review of provincial and federal log export restrictions. Why BC and federal log export restrictions are in conflict with international trade law. Why is industry on BC coast in structural decline? Is there a vision for the future of the forest industry on the BC Coast? We are looking forward to your attendance at The Global Softwood Log & Lumber Conference We will be profiling more speakers and sponsors in the coming weeks, so please check your for updates! If you have any questions, please feel free to contact our office at (604) For a full WOOD MARKETS conference brochure and further conference and hotel information, please visit:

7 SESSION 4. NORTH AMERICA TOPIC: North America: Lumber Situation & Outlook Wayne Guthrie Senior Vice President, Sales and Marketing Canfor, Canada Wayne Guthrie was appointed Senior Vice President, Sales and Marketing on May 6, With a significant background in optimizing customer service and fostering collaboration in the refinement of supply chain processes, Mr. Guthrie s prior senior management roles at Canfor include General Manager, North American Sales and Marketing and General Manager, Home Centre Sales. Born and raised in Ontario, Canada, Mr. Guthrie began his career with Canfor in 1984 and developed an extensive knowledge of North American and offshore forest products markets during more than 23 years with the company. Wayne Guthrie will address the following: The North American lumber market has improved over the past few years. However, the industry has not fully returned to its historical norms as a number of factors are still holding back recovery. Canfor will address the following challenges facing the industry and how Canfor is mitigating the impact on our valuable customers: 1. Lumber Demand Dynamics housing and repair and remodeling to China exports; 2. Lumber Supply Dynamics timber and lumber capacity where is it? 3. Overall US and Canada Supply and Demand Balance; 4. Supply Chain Issues: a. Labour shortages across all industries from producers to end users; b. Transportation constraints throughout the supply chain hampering delivery of products; 5. Today s US fiscal policies and the long term impact on the recovery. The question is not if the US economy will recover, but when, and what is the order of magnitude of the recovery?

8 SESSION 4. NORTH AMERICA US Timber: Supply/Demand & Outlook Bruce Glass Forest Economist Campbell Group LLC, USA Dr. Glass is responsible for economic and forestry research, and price forecasting at The Campbell Group. He also serves on the Price Forecast Team. Prior to joining The Campbell Group in 2007, Dr. Glass was a member of Weyerhaeuser s Market and Economics Research group, focusing on price forecasting and finished products research. Before that, he served as Lead Economist for the Washington State Department of Natural Resources for eight years, and was a research scientist and economist at the New Zealand Forest Research Institute for sixteen years. Bruce Glass will be discussing the following themes: Prospective dynamics of US timber demand and supply: What markets are we talking about anyway? Key demand drivers in softwood lumber and log markets The key supply consideration: Sawmill capacity Operating rate and demand-supply tension Prospective changes in: o Domestic and export demand o Domestic and import demand Outlook

9 SESSION 3. INTERNATIONAL REGIONS TOPIC: Europe: Lumber Industry & Outlook Mans Johansson Vice CEO and part owner Vida Group, Sweden Mr. Johansson will address the following topics in his presentation: Mans Johansson is Vice CEO and part owner of the Vida Group, Sweden. Vida is the largest private sawmilling group in Sweden. Mr. Johansson is also this year s Chairman of EOS (European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry). He is also a member of the Board of Swedish Forest Industries. Mr. Johansson and his team travel extensively and visit export markets all over the world and have unique insights into trends in the wood products trade. European Sawn Softwood Situation: Overview of key supply/demand drivers and economic development Production trends in key European producing regions Main markets and flows (short term) development Assessing different geographical areas Japan, China, ME-NA & main European markets Trends and Outlook: Log and sawnwood prices (and the lack of sawnwood margins vs. log prices in Europe) Prices required for European lumber to enter the US market. Market outlook & long term building trends in Europe.

10 SESSION 3. INTERNATIONAL REGIONS New Zealand: Industry & Export Outlook Steve McIntosh Market/Sales Manager Nelson Forests, New Zealand Steve will discuss the following: Nelson Forests Ltd.: History, location, size, production, markets Look back - NZ forestry sector: Ownership National estate (resource changes, species, depletion) Markets (NZ construction. Offshore) ETS / Carbon Challenges / Opportunities: Competing NZ industries (forest area depletion?) Infrastructure to manage the production Changing forest management / ownership Compliance Look forward: Production forecasts Markets Steve McIntosh was appointed to role of Market and Sales Manager for Weyerhaeuser NZ in 2000, subsequently Nelson Forests Ltd (2007). He is responsible for all Domestic and Export sales as well as an External Resources (ER) Trading Programme (aka OSP in North America) for Nelson Forests. He was the Forest Operations Manager for Fletcher Challenge Forests (FCF; pre-1997) and Weyerhaeuser NZ ( ). Previous to that, he held Forest management and technical roles within FCF. Steve has a Diploma in Forest Management and in Management Science.

11 SESSION 2. ASIA TOPIC: China Log: Imports & Market Outlook Henry Lin Supply Chain Logs Project Director, Superchain Logistics Development CO., LTD, China Henry Lin oversees the wood supply, distribution and production to markets in China in his role for Superchain Logistics Development Co., Ltd, that is part of the Xiangyu Group. Mr. Lin has worked many years in the wood products industry where he specializes in the logistics of transporting logs from key global exporting regions to China. Mr. Lin is a Chinese national but obtained his college degree in New Zealand and worked in Christchurch New Zealand for five years before returning to China as the Logs Project Direct of Xiangyu Group. Mr. Lin has travelled to the major softwood log and lumber producing and consuming countries/regions in the world to investigate the industries and their fit into China. Henry will address the following Topics: China Log Market & Demand/Supply Drivers 1. China Log Demand Drivers a. Macro-Market (Economy, Credit, Debt), b. Construction and Housing Markets c. Main End Uses for Logs 2. China Log Supply Drivers a. Profile of Key Softwood Log Suppliers to China b. China Log Market i. Log Inventories at Ports ii. Trends in key log suppliers (further details on NZ or radiata pine?) iii. Log Price Trends 3. Log Trading vs. Log Marketing a. Perspectives on what s wrong with log trading to China b. Perspectives on what s right with more marketing 4. Outlook : Perspectives for 2014 and into 2015

12 SESSION 1. GLOBAL/ JAPAN/ RUSSIA TOPIC: Global: Timber & Lumber Trends Russell Taylor, RPF, MBA President, outlooks for global markets. Russell Taylor has led the WOOD MARKETS team for over 20 years. Mr. Taylor conducts wood products marketing analysis and business assessment/investment projects for numerous global industry clients and across North America. Mr. Taylor travels extensively and conducts research and analysis in many dynamic global regions, including Russia, China, Asia, and throughout the Southern Hemisphere and Europe. As well, Mr. Taylor manages numerous multi-client reports that WOOD MARKETS researches and is a sought after speaker on strategic insights and Mr. Taylor has a forestry degree (BScF) and an MBA, both from the University of B.C., and is also a B.C. registered professional forester (RPF). Russ will speak on the Global Timber and Lumber Trends: is there enough supply? Global Timber Trends o Regions with declining or limited incremental supplies (Russia, BC, Quebec, tropical hardwood regions) o Regions with surplus supplies (Europe, NZ) o Impacts on key importing countries (China, Japan, USA) o Too much timber or not enough? o Outlook for log supply, demand and prices in selected markets Global Softwood Lumber Trends o Global Overview o Canada decreasing output expected o China relying more on global imports o USA shortages? super-cycle? or not? o Outlook for lumber supply, demand and prices in selected markets

13 SESSION 2. ASIA TOPIC: India: Imports & Market Outlook Brian Leslie Technical Advisor, Wood Products, Forestry Innovation Consulting India Pvt.Ltd., India Brian has almost 40 years experience in various aspects of the wood processing industry in Canada. His work has taken him all over the world to promote Canadian forest products with time spent in the UK, Romania, Africa, and now India. He specializes in market and product development for softwood lumber. A graduate of Simon Fraser University, he has applied his experience and knowledge in a variety of public and private sector roles. He s spent over 10 years as an educator in British Columbia Institute of Technology and College of New Caledonia. He has trained students, professionals, management, and new entrants to the industry to help them understand how to sell, manufacture, and especially develop new solid wood products. Taking on tough assignments in Romania, South Africa, and Swaziland, Brian is experienced at getting hands on with people in processing environments to help companies get the best out of their manufacturing process and to maximize profits. Brian has spoken at many international conferences, published articles and technical papers in widely read trade publications including The Journal of Logging and Sawmilling (Canada), The Timber Trades Journal (UK), Timber trades newsletter (South Africa). He s also certified in product standards for North America, the UK, Japan, South Africa and Australia. Brian Leslie will address the following points: The big picture in India a few Macro points SWOT look at India India wood consumption trends The changing supply side logs/lumber The use of wood today in India Regional differences in consumption Logistics and ports Doing business in India

14 SESSION 1. GLOBAL/ JAPAN/ RUSSIA TOPIC: Russia: Log & Lumber Outlook Slava Bychkov Managing Director, Communications Ilim Timber Industry, Russia Slava Bychkov has been working for Ilim Timber Industry since the company was founded in Ilim Timber is a spin-off of the former woodworking assets of Ilim Pulp and is part of joint venture arrangements with International Paper. He is primarily responsible for public affairs, government relations and business development. Slava has extensive experience in the timber and pulp and paper industries, working for the largest Russian pulp and paper corporation, Ilim Pulp from 1999 to Prior to joining Ilim Timber, Slava was the head of the St. Petersburg Chapter of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia from 1997 to He was also a Managing Director of Ogilvy Public Relations in Moscow from 2005 to Slava Bychkov will address the following topics: Russia: Log & Lumber Outlook Overall Russian economy, GDP trends, interest rates, currency impacts (politics) Competitiveness of the timber harvesting sector (rising costs) Increasing processing of logs in Russia - by Russian mills (status of new mill projects) Increasing processing of logs in Russia - by Chinese mills (with exports to Northern China) Russian export markets for sawnwood The role of China for logs and lumber from Russia Outlook