Consolidated Young Growth Forest Land Base Analysis for All Land Ownership in Southeast Alaska and Recommendations for Federal Land Managers

Transcription

1 Consolidated Young Growth Forest Land Base Analysis for All Land Ownership in Southeast Alaska and Recommendations for Federal Land Managers August 30th, 2013 (report version 3) Prepared at the request of: USDA Forest Service, Alaska Region under FS Agreement No. 12-CS Technical Team: Brian L. Kleinhenz, Sealaska Corporation Jim McWhorter, Terra Verde Incorporated

2 Table of Contents Introduction:.. 3 Original Scope of Work: Major Objectives:. 4 Executive Summary: 4 Methodology:. 5 Suggestions and Deliverables Appendix 1: Example maps:.. 11 Appendix 2: Natural Origin Young growth:. 13 2

3 Introduction: In June, 2011 the predecessor organization to The Working Forest Group (TWFG), the Forest Cluster Working Group published a draft report entitled Exploring the Sustainable Yield Capacity of the Young Growth Lands on the Tongass National Forest while Evaluating the Impact of Acreage Reductions and Rotation Age. This report is a result of the next steps in Young Growth analysis that were identified by TWFG to evaluate and recommend policy opportunities to increase the young growth land base in the timber development Land Use Designation (LUD) under USFS management and define the state of young growth development for all land owners in SE Alaska. Original Scope of Work: 1. Conduct a Young Growth Acreage Analysis: The purpose of this analysis is to investigate and make recommendations to designate additional young growth acreage on the Tongass National Forest into productive Working Forest status which will facilitate a more rapid and sustainable transition from old growth into young growth forest products. The concept of a working forest is a dedicated land base committed to positive revenue generation through wood products production facilitate by active management. The Phase I study identified approximately 600,000 acre of young growth on the Tongass National Forest. Of this area only 45% (272,000 acres) is designated for timber production and represents the youngest age classes and therefore furthest from harvest potential. It is estimated that the removal of the more mature acres will add years to a potential transition to young growth harvesting on the Tongass. The product of this analysis includes the following: a. Recommendations to designate additional acres encumbered by policy and regulations. b. Recommended implementation steps to bring the acres back into timber production. c. Identify critical revisions to the Tongass Land Management Plan (TLMP) necessary to include key young growth areas into the suitable and available timber management land base. These recommendations will be designed to provide guidance to the next TLMP review and update. d. Analysis of the productivity of a new forest land base suitable for timber harvest. e. Analysis of the productivity of a new forest land base with the removal of Culmination of Mean Annual Increment (CMAI) restrictions on a subset of the total acres. f. Projected timing of harvest and harvest levels associated with a new land base. 2. Conduct a Young Growth Land Base Analysis under All Ownerships within Southeast Alaska: The purpose of this analysis is to analyze all the acres of young growth under all land ownerships within Southeast Alaska and evaluate the potential timing and level of harvesting from all land ownerships. The product of this initiative will be used to proceed with analysis on the potential size of an appropriately scaled, vertically integrated forest products industry for the region. This analysis will deliver the following information: a. Total land base by ownership of young growth forests. 3

4 b. Estimated age class distribution of all lands consolidated. c. Estimated harvest levels and harvest timing of young growth into the market from the consolidated ownership land base. d. Maps of the consolidate land base. Major Objectives: 1. Construct the most accurate data base and map set possible of all private and non USFS lands young growth in SE Alaska. 2. Stratify the data into 10 year age class categories or more precise where possible and provide distribution for private and all lands in the region 3. Identify the 3 most significant opportunities to add quality 2nd growth land base to the USFS production LUD by adopting changes in policy to improve the ability to meet it s Transition objectives. a. Impact on age class distribution of young growth production LUD s by adding quality acres. 4. Estimate the harvest timeline and opportunity for the entire land base including additional USFS lands over the next 50 years. Executive Summary: The total acreage of non-usfs young growth (YG) is approximately 280,000 acres The age class distribution of the non-usfs young growth is about 20 years younger than USFS young growth and is not likely to provide much support to a rapid transition The bulk of the acreage in the oldest age consists of small stands that are widely dispersed and are the result of early small scale beach logging. This 25,000 acres will not form the backbone of a young growth logging program and will only be possible to mix in opportunistically with larger and more operable blocks of YG. The most significant changes that could positively impact a young growth program on the Tongass would be to reclaim approximately 200,000 acres of YG currently not designated for timber management. The TWFG estimates the managed federal young growth land base has the potential to reach 450,000 acres in size. Three main policy changes could have the maximum impact. o Changing all YG forests into timber management Land Use Designations (LUD s) o Modifying Standards and Guidelines particularly in beach fringe management o Reduce the size of Riparian Management Areas in YG units These three opportunities could all be achieved by the administration without changes to federal law. Changes to LUD status of young growth land is the best long term opportunity and represents to most direct way to add to the total magnitude of a young growth program. 4

5 Methodology: Utilizing aerial photography we compiled ownership and acreage information by ownership. o Along with this report please find a compressed file called SE_allYoungGrowth. This file contains an ESRI shape file that can be loaded into a GIS system. This data is a compilation of existing public digital data sources and includes over 150,000 acres of new mapping using publicly available photography. o The mapping product contains the best existing estimates of the acres and age classes of all young growth forests in Southeast Alaska. In addition this layer serves as a record of management history (pre-commercial thinning) and includes an estimate of Site Index. Using site index, stand age, geographic location and management history detailed volumetric analysis can be conducted to predict wood flow using assumptions on rotation age and final harvest volume. SE_allYoungGrowth.shp data dictionary: Field Name Data type Field Description Decade Number 10 year age class SURF_OWN Text A text code specifying surface estate ownership FULLNAME Text Full description of surface estate owner or manager Acres Number US acres of each polygon Birth Number Best estimate of harvest year for each polygon PCT_YR Number Year of Pre-commercial thin for units known to have been thinned Site_PHY Number Estimated site index (50 year base age) for each polygon where estimations could be made. Polygons with a zero value were not estimated by could be assigned an average site index for analytical work. Utilizing harvesting history information by landowner or estimates derived from air photos, we constructed an age class distribution for each landowner and consolidated o The attached spreadsheet YG Summaries.xlsx includes a rollup of acres of young growth forest by age class broken out by owner. It also includes a summary of management (PCT) status of each age class by owner. From our predecessor draft report Exploring the Sustainable Yield Capacity of the Young Growth Lands on the Tongass National Forest while Evaluating the Impact on Acreage Reductions and Rotation Age distributed in June 2013 we identified the 3 most significant land additions to the productive young growth land base to be managed for timber production and how those changes could be adopted. Taking average growth rate (MAI) and applying it to the projected young growth land base for all ownerships we provided a very rough estimate of potential sustainable harvest flow in years. 5

6 Suggestions and Deliverables: 3. Conduct a Young Growth Acreage Analysis: a. Regarding recommendations to designate additional acres encumbered by policy and regulations TWFG was able to identify many ways to add acres to the managed forest land base that are currently encumbered by various non-management or limited management land uses. Federal land policy is extremely complicated creating a situation where the same acre can be subject to many different policy decisions. As such the TWFG research concludes that three policy modifications could provide a great deal of relief. By focusing on these three areas, in order of importance, policy makers can have the greatest impact on increasing the YG managed forest land base. Although the collective impact of these changes could not be calculated precisely without further analysis due to acres being restricted by more than one policy or regulation, the order of magnitude of changing these policies along with unmapped and natural acres within the USFS Tongass National Forest would add conservatively between 125,000 and 175,000 acres to the current base of 272,000 resulting in a USFS young growth land base of between 400,000 and 450,000 acres. Changing all YG forests into timber production (LUD s) The nature of the young growth resource is fragmented spatially. There are a few large continuous blocks of YG, but most YG areas are small units surrounded by old growth timber, marginal timber or other lands such as muskeg, water, or estuaries. The Land Use Designation map blocks the Tongass into large contiguous areas. Often smaller areas of YG are swallowed up by the macro level land use designation. The spatial extent of YG is well known by land managers and the TWFG suggest that all areas of YG that do not have a congressional designation be added to the timber management LUD. This is the single best return for the effort. Modifying Standards and Guidelines regarding beach and estuary fringe A second order impact, assuming changes to land use designations, is to modify existing standards and guidelines to allow regeneration harvest on certain areas of young growth on a project level. In particular, a critical modification would be repeal of the 1000 foot beach buffers in young growth units. These beach fringe areas, although small when compared to the entire YG base, contain some of the oldest stands of young growth timber. Strategically, these areas of harvest ready young growth are critical to developing a young growth sales program in the short term. Reduce Riparian Management Areas (RMA s) in YG units A third order impact is modification to the riparian management areas to allow more liberal harvest of young growth outside the riparian buffers established by the Tongass Timber Reform Act (TTRA). The RMA plan could be modifies on a project by project level to ensure riparian protection while allowing the greatest possible opportunity for YG harvest. 6

7 b. Identification of critical revisions to the Tongass Land Management Plan (TLMP) necessary to include key young growth areas into the suitable and available timber management land base. These recommendations will be designed to provide guidance to the next TLMP review and update: The TWFG feels that the best opportunity for TLMP modification lies in the reclassification of YG lands into designations that allow for timber management. Clearly, the best opportunity for this would be during an amendment of revision of the current Land Management Plan. Certain standards and guidelines could be immediately modified given action at the appropriate level of the administration. TLMP review and update will be nuances process and the TWFG offers ongoing support to help develop and YG strategy that will maximize the triple bottom line of Community, Economics and Environment. c. Analysis of the productivity of a new forest land base suitable for timber harvest. The GIS layer provided with this report contains forest productivity estimates. d. Analysis of the productivity of a new forest land base with the removal of CMAI restrictions on a subset of the total acres. Feedback from USFS personnel caused the TWFG to recast this deliverable. The included GIS layer contains data on age and productivity for each YG stand in the Southeast Alaska region. Using published yield tables and assumptions on rotations, a volumetric analysis can be quickly conducted by USFS staff to address specific scenarios. e. Projected timing of harvest and harvest levels associated with a new land base. Modeling specific scenarios of harvest timing and volume needs additional assumptions to be credible but an order of magnitude can be defined. With the lands analyzed for the writing of this report and assuming a conservative mean annual increment of 300 board feet per acre per year, a total sustainable regional young growth harvest program could approach 200 million board feet annual from all owners. Harvest could ramp up to this level over the next 30 years with short term harvest level being significantly less. 7

8 4. Conduct a Young Growth Land Base Analysis under All Ownerships within Southeast Alaska: a. Total land base by ownership of young growth forests: Consolidated YG Age Class by Owner State of Alaska 7,240 1,021 3,258 6,058 7,971 6,884 1, ,618 Native Corp 36,045 75, ,171 16,266 8,691 1, ,090 USFS 15,473 72,552 88, , ,053 27,363 3,493 3,608 25, ,196 58, , , , ,715 35,594 5,144 3,784 25, ,904 This table represents the acreage numbers for the units mapped and delivered in the GIS layer. The GIS layer is the best comprehensive approximation of YG acres in Southeast Alaska. There are a few small but notable holes in this data set which the TWFG estimates to be between 10,000 to 20,000 additional acres in various age classes. For the most part the forest lands help by these owners are small tracts. These lands may be important in the future when developing specific projects, but do not add much to the overall regional picture. TWFG hopes to continue to build to this map to include all information possible. 1. University of Alaska Land Trust acres have not been completely accounted for 2. Alaska Mental Health Trust lands have been only partially included 3. YG forests on private lands and lands cleared for mining claims have not been included. 4. Non-Alaska Native Corporation private lands were not examined. TWFG includes some of what is referred to in this report as Natural Origin Young Growth. Approximately 30,000 acres of these stands were visually reviewed by remote sensing experts to confirm they are in fact young growth. They are the result of early beach logging or natural disturbance such as fire or wind throw. Cumulatively these stands form a surge of acres in the 80 years and older age class. Although they add up to a notable amount, very few of these areas could be operable given modern forest practices. Small scale beach logging is no longer done and small isolated pockets of natural origin timber offer little opportunity for an economically viable operation. A pictographic figure is included in Appendix two that details how natural origin stands are distributed on the Tongass. State of Alaska numbers are known to not include the full representation of Department of Forestry, Mental Health Trust and University of Alaska Trust Lands. 8

9 b. Estimated age class distribution of all lands consolidated: *Refer to YG summaries.xlsx for more detail on the previous two graphs 9

10 c. Estimated harvest levels and harvest timing of young growth into the market from the consolidated ownership land base: It is clear from the age class and acreage work that all private and state young growth resources are an average of 20 years younger than the Tongass N.F. It therefore follows that the USFS must lead the way regionally in the harvest and sales of young growth timber. Private landholding can be small, strategic additions to a broader federal program. d. Maps of the consolidate land base: The area analyzed in this investigation is too large geographically for comprehensive hard copy map products at a reasonable scale. The TWFG has provided two example map products in the Appendix. In addition, the entire GIS layer is provided to allow USFS staff to generate similar maps and any scale for any area of interest. 10

11 Legend Age Distribution Birth SurfaceOwnership State Lands USDA FOREST SERVICE ANC lands

12 Legend Age Distribution Birth SurfaceOwnership State Lands USDA FOREST SERVICE ANC lands

13 Appendix 2: Young Growth of Natural Origin **The Colored Boxes Provide a full accounting of the 99 thousand acres in question 99k of Young Growth Calls with no Stand Origin Date 34k in Yakutat YG??? 65 k outside Yakutat 54k Other YG 7k Hardwood Types 4k of Transmission Corridors and Windthrow 10k Not reviewed (no Imagery) 44 k Reviewed 14k OG (Bad Type Call) 500 acres 1000 ft Beach Buffers 2,800 acres in LUD: Timber Production, Scenic View shed and Modified Landscape. 1,300 acres 2011 Roadless Rule 1,000 acres Available 7,200 acres in non-timber development LUDs 30k Confirmed YG 60% of Stands Reviewed were confirmed as Young Growth 26k Age Class k Age Class < 75 10,000 acres in LUD: Timber Production, Scenic View shed and Modified Landscape. 16,000 acres in non-timber development LUDs 1,600 acres in LUD: Timber Production, Scenic View shed and Modified Landscape. 2,400 acres in non-timber development LUDs 2,000 acres 1000 ft Beach Buffers 4,400 acres 2011 Roadless Rule 3,600 acres Available 300 acres 1000 ft Beach Buffers 400 acres 2011 Roadless Rule 900 acres Available