A RS/GIS BASED MULTI-CRITERIA APPROACHES TO ASSESS FOREST FIRE HAZARD IN INDONESIA (Case Study: West Kutai District, East Kalimantan Province)

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1 A RS/GIS BASED MULTI-CRITERIA APPROACHES TO ASSESS FOREST FIRE HAZARD IN INDONESIA (Case Study: West Kutai District, East Kalimantan Province) DANAN PRASETYO HADI GRADUATE SCHOOL BOGOR AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY 2008

2 A RS/GIS BASED MULTI-CRITERIA APPROACHES TO ASSESS FOREST FIRE HAZARD IN INDONESIA (Case Study: West Kutai District, East Kalimantan Province) DANAN PRASETYO HADI A Thesis submitted for the degree of Master of Science of Bogor Agricultural University MASTER OF SCIENCE IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY FOR NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT GRADUATE SCHOOL BOGOR AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY 2008

3 STATEMENT I, Danan Prasetyo Hadi, here by stated that this thesis entitled: A RS/GIS Based Multi-Criteria Approaches to Assess Forest Fire Hazard in Indonesia (Case Study: West Kutai District, East Kalimantan Province) are results of my own work during the period of February 2007 until January 2008 and that it has not been published before. The content of the thesis has been examined by the advising committee and the external examiner. Bogor, February 2008 Danan Prasetyo Hadi i

4 ACKNOLEDGEMENT My utmost reverence and praise is to the Almighty God for his mercies, faithfulness and strength to me. Deep sense of gratitude to my parents who has once more granted me success in my studies. Lots of appreciation go to my dear wife and my son whose lovely care and steadfastness to the success of my studies. Further, I would like to express my gratitude and sincere appreciation to the following individuals and organizations that contributed to the success of my studies: Dr. Ir. Tania June, MSc and Dr. Sonya Dewi, my thesis supervisors for all their valuable guidance and useful advise during my thesis research. I am very grateful to Dr. Meine van Noordwijk, Southeast Asia Regional Coordinator of World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) who provided me the oppurtunity to take this study. This research was funded by Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA) of the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) and the The Tropical Agriculture Center for Research and Higher Education (CATIE) funded by the European Commission. I am very grateful to Dr. Heru Santoso, TroFCCA Project Coordinator for Southeasth Asia for all their valuable guidance and useful advise during my thesis research. I would also want to thank the various experts on forest fire who have provided some comments, suggestions, and professional opinion on the topic such: Dr. Bambang Hero Saharjo, Head of Fire Laboratory, Faculty ii

5 of Forestry, Bogor Agricultural University; Dr. Orbita Roswintiarti, M. Sc., Head of PSDAL of the Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN); Dr. Unna Chokkalingam, Dr. Suyanto, who have worked with the Underlying Causes and Impacts of Fires in South-seast Asia (CIFOR-ICRAF); Dr. Anja Hoffman, Dr. Gernot Ruecker, Mr. Solichin, M. Sc., who have worked with the fire project in East Kalimantan (the IFFM project) and of the fire project in South Sumatra (the SSFFMP project); Dr. Eddy Marbyanto, who has worked with the fire project in East Kalimantan (the IFFM project). I would also want to thank to Mrs. Lely Rulia Siregar, M. Sc. from Forestry Planning (BAPLAN) of the Ministry of Forestry for providing some digital forestry thematic data and also thank to Mr. Israr, M. Sc. from Directorate of Forest Fire Prevention of the Ministry of Forestry for providing historical fire events data (hotspots data). I would also want to thank to the Indonesian Agroclimate and Hydrology Research Institute (BALITKLIMAT) and the Indonesian Meteorology and Geophysics Board (BMG) for providing weather data. Special thanks go to all the member of staff in ICRAF Regional Office - Bogor, especially those in Spatial Analysis Unit, thanks for great help and cooperation. iii

6 CURRICULUM VITAE Danan Prasetyo Hadi was born in Karanganyar, Surakarta, Central Java, Indonesia at June 25, He has taken formal education including elementary school, junior high school, and senior high school in Karanganyar, Surakarta, Central Java from 1976 until He hold a bachelor of science degree (S. Si) from the Department of Cartography and Remote Sensing, Faculty of Geography, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta in He has worked as GIS assistant for several govermental and private projects in Indonesia from 1996 to Since 1997, he has been working as a GIS specialist for International Centre for Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF) Southeast Asia Regional Office, in Bogor, Indonesia. iv

7 ABSTRACT DANAN PRASETYO HADI (2008), A RS/GIS Based Multi-Criteria Approaches to Assess Forest Fire Hazard in Indonesia (Case Study: West Kutai District, East Kalimantan Province). Under the supervision of TANIA JUNE and SONYA DEWI. Many forest ecosystems in Indonesia have undergone rapid changes, which certainly influencing in the forest structure and fuel properties. In addition to forest structure and fuel changes, increased number of people living in these environments and frequent extreme droughts as impacts of climate changes has led to extraordinary fire events which leads to several environmental problems including loss of forest as carbon sink, loss of biodiversity, transboundary haze pollution, as well as significant economic losses. Better management of forests and fire problems require spatial-temporal assessment providing important information for identifying and prioritizing fire planning needs. Fire hazard map determining the fire vulnerable areas is important information required to take decisions on fire prevention and suppression activities. To be effective, a comprehensive consideration for forest fire hazard assessment must accomodate a wide range of important determining variables that encompass biophysical and anthropogenic factors leading to occurrence of fire. Combining geomatics technology, including remote sensing and geographic information systems with either statistical or analytical hierarchy process (AHP) approaches offer more efficient and powerful on data acquisition and analysis related to fire hazard assessment. In this research different approaches used for assessing forest fire hazard in West Kutai district at different temporal resolutions: short-term and long-term fire probability assessment. Keetch and Byram Drought Index (KBDI) as a drought index indicating the atmospheric dryness used for short-term fire potential assessment. While long-term assessment encompass two different approaches to spatially model fire probability: binary logistic regression model and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The first model tried to base weights for fire occurence probability map based on historical fires as recorded by satellites (hotspots), while the AHP approach is based on judgement by asking experts in a systematic fashion. The result of this research showed that by combining between the daily KBDI indexs with hotspots occurences indicated that there is a strong positive association between KBDI index with hotspot occurences. The importance level of variable contributing to forest fire occurences resulted from both binary logistic regression model and the AHP model showed a quite similar pattern. Keywords: Remote sensing, geographic information systems, forest fire, fire probability, binary logistic regression, analytic hierarchy process, West Kutai, Kalimantan v

8 Research Title : A RS/GIS Based Multi-Criteria Approaches to Assess Forest Fire Hazard in Indonesia (Case Study: West Kutai District, East Kalimantan Province) Name : Danan Prasetyo Hadi Student ID : G Study Program : Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management Approved by, Advisory Board Dr. Ir. Tania June, M.Sc Supervisor Dr. Ir. Sonya Dewi, M.Sc Co-supervisor Endorsed by, Program Coordinator Dean of the Graduate School Dr. Ir. Tania June, M.Sc Prof. Dr. Ir. Khairil A. Notodiputro, M.S Date of Examination: February 18, 2008 Date of Graduation: vi

9 TABLE OF CONTENTS STATEMENT...i ACKNOLEDGMENT...ii CURRICULUM VITAE...iv ABSTRACT...v TABLE OF CONTENTS...vii LIST OF TABLE...x LIST OF FIGURE...xii LIST OF APPENDIX...xiv I. INTRODUCTION Background Objective...5 II. LITERATURE REVIEW Determinant Factors of Forest Fire Environmental Factors Influencing Fire Behavior Topography Fuel Weather Human Factors of Fire Ignition The Role of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System in Forest Fire Assessment Fundamental of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System Remote Sensing for Fire Detection and Fire Monitoring...15 vii

10 Remote Sensing for Fuel Cover Mapping The Use of GIS in Fire Risk Assessment Methods for Forest Fire Risk Mapping Short-Term (Dynamic) Fire Risk Estimation Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) Long-Term (Static-Structural) Fire Risk Estimation Logistic Regression Model Multi-Criteria Evaluation Technique...24 III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Study Area Data and Tool Methods Acquiring Determinant Factors Affecting Forest Fire Criteria Related to Environmental Factors Object Oriented Fuel Cover Classification Landform Weather Topography Criteria Related to Human Factors Land Use Allocation Accessibility Short-Term Fire Risk Estimation Based on Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) Analysis Logistic Regression Forest Fire Hazard Model...35 viii