PC-Institute for Global Environment Research Topic: REDD+, Potential and Issues Dr. Kazuhito YAMADA. Contents

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1 PC-Institute for Global Environment Research Topic: REDD+, Potential and Issues Dr. Kazuhito YAMADA Contents What is REDD+? Deforestation and forest degradation deforestation and forest degradation general causes and case studies Potential of REDD+ Critical issues of REDD+ 2 1

2 What is REDD+? Copenhagen Accord 6. We recognize the crucial role of reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation and the need to enhance removals of emission by forests and agree on the need to provide positive incentives to such actions through the immediate establishment of a mechanism including REDD-plus, to enable the mobilization of financial resources from developed countries. 3 What is REDD+? REDD is referred as: Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to Reduced Emission by Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries 4 2

3 What is REDD+? REDD+ is referred as: Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to REDD; Plus the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries. 5 What is REDD+? UN-REDD explains that: REDD is a mechanism to create an incentive for developing countries to protect, better manage and wisely use their forest resources, contributing to the global fight against climate change. REDD strategies aim to make forests more valuable standing than they would be cut down, by creating a financial value for the carbon stored in trees. Once this carbon is assessed and quantified, the final phase of REDD involves developed countries paying developing countries carbon offsets for their standing forests 6 3

4 What is REDD+? Basic concept of crediting to REDD and/or REDD+: Carbon stock (t-co 2 ) starting date of REDD and REDD+ project baseline scenario REDD+ credit REDD credit REDD+ project scenario REDD project scenario year 7 What is REDD+? REDD, REDD+, AR/CDM non-forest forest This diagram is viewed from directly above forest % % % REDD: stop to non-forest REDD+: to enhance forest carbon stocks AR/CDM: non-forest to forest Source: ICRAF 8 4

5 Deforestation and forest degradation CO 2 from deforestation and forest degradation is one of important anthropogenic GHG sources. Source: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers 9 proximate causes underlying causes 1. agricultural expansion Shifting cultivation, Permanent cultivation, Cattle ranching, Colonization 2. wood extraction Commercial wood extraction, Fuelwood extraction, Polewood extraction, Charcoal production 3. infrastructure extension Transport infrastructure, Market infrastructure, Public services, Settlement expansion, Private enterprise infrastructure 1. demographic factors Population increase, Migration, etc. 2. economic factors Commercialization, Market growth, etc. 3. technological factors Agricultural, Forestry 4. policy and institutional factors Public policy, Land tenure, Corruption, etc. 5. cultural factors Public attitudes, values, beliefs, Individual and household behavior, etc. Source: Helmut J. Geist & Eric F. Lambin, 2001 However, there is no united explanation of main causes of deforestation and forest degradation. It may depend on the characteristics of the site. 10 5

6 Deforestation patterns: Fishbone Geometric Corridor Diffuse Patchy Island Source: Helmut J. Geist & Eric F. Lambin, Case Study: Amazon Main direct causes: Road construction Ranching Soy bean production Main indirect causes: Economic development policy based on road construction in 1970s Preferential policy for large scale ranching by the govt. Price increase of crops including soy bean 12 6

7 Cattle Density in the Legal Amazon Deforestation caused by ranching have been induced by road construction Source: Walker, R., J. et. al, Case Study: Kalimantan Main direct causes: Unregulated woodcutting under the concession by the govt. Expansion of oil palm plantation Main indirect causes: Weak management ability of decentralized local govt. Increasing price of palm oil 14 7

8 Forest loss within the protected area in Kalimantan Source: L. M. Curran, et. al., Potential of REDD+ Marginal costs in 2020 of emissions reductions with Avoided Deforestation (AD = REDD) activities in three regions with predictions of the three models. Potential less than US $ 20/t-CO 2 will be more than 2.5 billion t-co 2 /year Source: Kindermann G et al. PNAS 2008;105:

9 Potential of REDD+ Forest Carbon Index: FCI Source: FCI 17 Potential of REDD+ Source: FCI 18 9

10 Potential of REDD+ Basic concept of crediting REDD+ is the compensation of conservation opportunity cost of land Payment for Environmental Service, PES: PES can be used for quantifying possible monetary value of baseline land use scenario. Using this method, you can estimate necessary monetary value of carbon credit of REDD+ project. Estimated necessary costs of carbon credit of the project vary from low price (3-10 US$/t-CO 2 ) to high cost (more than 50 US$/t-CO 2 ) 19 Potential of REDD+ Payment for Environmental Service, PES: Source: Valentin Bellassen and Vincent Gitz,

11 Critical issues of REDD+ What is the most important role of REDD+? To stop deforestation activities, or To supply carbon credits of REDD+ to international carbon market How to design the procedure and modality of REDD+ in practical way? How to stop deforestation activities by causers in real forest using carbon credit? What kind of mechanisms do we need? How to involve stakeholders related to deforestation activities in REDD+ in developing countries? How to develop capacities of these stakeholders in order to implement REDD+ projects properly? 21 Organization address: PC-Institute for Global Environment Research (PC-IGER) Pacific Consultants Co., Ltd Sekido, Tama-shi, Tokyo Japan 11