EMIS. Ecological Indicators to Assess Vulnerability of Coastal Areas. Oxygen Depletion/ Eutrophication Risk Index

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1 EMIS Ecological Indicators to Assess Vulnerability Coastal Areas Aug 2004 Oxygen Depletion/ Eutrophication Risk Index Useful tool to monitor the impact climate change variability

2 EMIS Trends in Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature Total SST change in degrees Celsius between 1982 and 2003

3 Challenges for Coastal Zone Management Strong anthropogenic pressures: freshwater inputs rich in nutrients and pollutants, land use changes, fish and shellfish farming, tourism, warming seas, etc. Ecosystem functioning disruptions: anoxic crises due to oxygen depletion, algal blooms, etc. Macroalgal blooms Tourism Mar Menor (Spain) Anoxic crises Sacca di Goro (Italy) Etang de Thau (France)

4 FATE Pollutants in Terrestrial and Coastal Ecosystems in Europe Policy Policy Questions Questions arising arising from from a a number number environmental environmental Directives, Directives, e.g.: e.g.: Which Which sources sources nutrient nutrient pollutants? pollutants? What What is is the the share share nutrients nutrients coming coming from from diffuse diffuse sources? sources? How How is is the the fate fate nutrients nutrients influenced influenced by by climatic climatic factors factors and/or and/or soil soil properties? properties? Policy Policy Support Support Modelling-based Modelling-based assessment assessment in in a a nested nested context context Scenario Scenario analysis analysis Results, Results, reports, reports, maps, maps, recommendations recommendations JRC-EEA

5 Development Integrated Coastal Zone Modelling Meteo Data Meteo Data subsidies Agriculture/ farms Inhabitants Industry Watershed model Coastal lagoon model Flows Nutrients Contaminants Open Sea: Flows, Nutrients, Contaminants channel dredging concessions pollution taxes Management options To describe behaviour complex systems.

6 European Forest Monitoring and Information System Area not included Forest Non - Forest Clouds or Snow European Forest Map JRC m resolution

7 Assessing the Functions Forests under Changing Conditions Carbon uptake in EU forests = 10% EU emissions San Rossore (Pisa) Mediterranean Pine Forest Zerbolò (Parco Ticino) Poplar Plantation Network FP6 CarboEurope IP

8 Assessing the Functions Forests under Changing Conditions Forests can turn from sinks into emitters under conditions heat and drought as evidenced in summer Monthly Net Ecosystem Exchange for summer at JRC long-term test site, pine forest San Rossore (Tuscany) 20 NEE (g C m -2 month -1 ) JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT Nature 437, (2005)

9 Forest Monitoring and Modeling Legend 1 - Boreal 2 - Hemiboreal, Nemoral 3 - Alpine coniferous 4 - Atlantic, acidophyllous oakwood 5 - Mesophytic deciduous 6 - Beech forest 7 - Beech montane 8 - Mediterranean deciduous 9 - Mediterranean evergreen 10 - Mediterranean coniferous 12 - Floodplain Simulation the impact doubling CO 2 concentration on forest type

10 Simulating Future Changes in Precipitation 12 km resolution HIRHAM regional model Danish Meteorological Institute; worst case scenario IPCC A2; data O. Christensen, PRUDENCE Project; Maps show difference between CONTROL run ( ) and SCENARIO run ( ).