Eliot McIntire. Alana Clason. Current limits and future potential range of northern whitebark pine under a changing climate

Transcription

1 Current limits and future potential range of northern whitebark pine under a changing climate Eliot McIntire Canadian Forest Service & University of British Columbia Alana Clason University of Northern British Columbia 1

2 Climate is changing 2

3 We expect polar migration of species with warming 3

4 Pearson and Dawson, 2003 This is based on the idea that Climate is the broadest-scale driver of species distributions 4

5 5

6 Questions: 1. What currently limits the northern distribution of whitebark pine?? High latitude Low latitude 2. Where will the range shift at its northern edge with climate change?? High latitude Low latitude 6

7 Does Climate limit the northern limit? High latitude Climate? Low latitude 7

8 Study Area North Central BC/Alberta At and Beyond the current range 8

9 Data Source No. of Plots Compilation of datasets across 4 decades, across the northern part of WBP range General Location Date Data Type Mean Adult Density (#/ha) Mean Juvenile Density (#/ha) Adult Mean Mortality Alberta P, AD, JD, 15 Willmore Parks H A.Clason 136 BC, Alberta P/A, AD, JD, H FLNRO 2 BC 2013 P, AD, JD, H S.Haeussler, P, AD, JD, 6 Smithers, BC A.Clason H BEC 160 BC P, AC, JC 5.63* 1.29* n/a BEC 7367 BC A, AC, JC 0* 0* n/a C.Wong 95 Jasper, Willmore P/A, AD, JD n/a E.Campbell 4 P, AD, JD, McBride, Smithers 1995 (averaged) H M. Gelderman 69 Jasper, Willmore P, JD n/a 1398 n/a National Parks 34 Jasper, Banff P, AD, JD n/a R.Moody 171 Jasper, Banff P/A, AD, JD, H S.Zeglen 75 BC P, H n/a n/a

10 Raw data: Conditions where species is present and absent Presence Absence Frequency Precipitation (mm/yr) Temperature ( C) 10

11 Raw data: Conditions where species is present and absent Presence Absence Frequency Precipitation (mm/yr) Temperature ( C) Colder is better

12 Conditions where species is present and absent Presence Absence Frequency Precipitation (mm/yr) Temperature ( C) WBP is already in the coldest places, but not wettest or driest Colder is better

13 Whitebark pine does not occupy suitable habitat north of range 13

14 Consistent with others observed predicted Hamann and Wang, 2006 Mathys et al.,

15 Northern limit Cold limit 15

16 What about biotic interactions? Pearson and Dawson,

17 Biotic Interactions Grizzly bears Whitebark pine Clark s Nutcracker /as_go_whitebark_pine_so_go_gri.html Red squirrels Photo: C. Wong 17

18 Clark s Nutcracker Photo: C. Wong Whitebark pine 18

19 Clark s Nutcracker Photo: C. Wong Alternative Food (Douglas-fir) Whitebark pine 19

20 20

21 Clark s Nutcracker Photo: C. Wong Reproduce Schaming, 2015 Alternative Food (Douglas-fir) Whitebark pine 21

22 1. What currently constrains the northern limit of whitebark pine? Mechanism Hypothesis Species Habitat (abiotic) Habitat - 22

23 1. What currently constrains the northern limit of whitebark pine? Mechanism Hypothesis Species Habitat (abiotic) Habitat - Competition (biotic) & Habitat (abiotic) Competition Lodgepole pine 23

24 1. What currently constrains the northern limit of whitebark pine? Mechanism Hypothesis Species Habitat (abiotic) Habitat - Competition (biotic) & Habitat (abiotic) Dispersal (biotic) & Habitat (abiotic) Competition Seed source within-pixel only Seed source within-pixel and long-distance dispersal Alternate food sources Seed source and alternate food sources Lodgepole pine Whitebark pine Whitebark pine Douglas-fir Whitebark pine, Douglas-fir A joint double dispersal kernel 24

25 Mechanism Hypothesis Species AIC Habitat (abiotic) Habitat Competition (biotic) & Habitat (abiotic) Dispersal (biotic) & Habitat (abiotic) Competition Lodgepole pine 6884 Seed source local dispersal only Seed source local and long-distance dispersal Alternate food sources Seed source and alternate food sources Whitebark pine 6751 Whitebark pine 6737 Douglas-fir 6828 Whitebark pine, Douglas-fir

26 Mechanism Hypothesis Species AIC Habitat (abiotic) Habitat Competition (biotic) & Habitat (abiotic) Dispersal (biotic) & Habitat (abiotic) Competition Lodgepole pine 6884 Seed source local dispersal only Seed source local and long-distance dispersal Alternate food sources Seed source and alternate food sources Whitebark pine 6751 Whitebark pine 6737 Douglas-fir 6828 Whitebark pine, Douglas-fir

27 Predicted WBP abundance with dispersal from Douglas-fir and WBP, constrained by climate, topography Good Fit! 27

28 Clark s Nutcracker Photo: C. Wong Whitebark pine 28

29 Clark s Nutcracker & Alternative Host Currently best explanation for Northern Limit Photo: C. Wong Douglas-fir Whitebark pine 29

30 Pearson and Dawson,

31 Continental-scale positive biotic interaction constrains species northern limit Pearson and Dawson,

32 2. Where will whitebark pine s range shift under climate change at its northern limit? High latitude? Low latitude 32

33 4-way simulation experiment Test: Climate, Restoration, DouglasFir, WBP Mortality Climate Change Mortality RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 Nutcracker visitation Restoration Douglas-fir Management Pre-mortality populations Increased planting Assisted migration 33

34 Massive decline in Suitable Habitat (RCP 4.5) (note: this is the less extreme GCM!) 34

35 Change in Distribution (Climate change & mortality) North Coast North Rockies Central Rockies Central Coast 50% 2.5% & 97.5% Proportional Change s 2050s 2080s Climate Period 35

36 Change in Distribution (Climate change & mortality) North Coast North Rockies Central Rockies Central Coast 50% 2.5% & 97.5% Proportional Change Loss of distribution across the northern range s 2050s 2080s Climate Period 36

37 Change in Distribution (Climate change & mortality) North Coast North Rockies Central Rockies Central Coast 50% 2.5% & 97.5% Proportional Change Coastal Regions lose more s 2050s 2080s Climate Period 37

38 38

39 Distribution decline Treatments: Restoration, Douglas-fir Infilling & Douglasfir Assisted migration 39

40 Distribution decline N Coast and N Rockies most responsive to treatments 40

41 Distribution decline N Coast and N Rockies most responsive to treatments But still decline in longer term 41

42 Extreme distribution contraction Habitat disappearing too warm everywhere 42

43 One coherent picture of climate-based decline Biotic drivers constrained current distribution This meant that species did not make it to its northern climatic limit (i.e., it could have been Alaska/Yukon) So, with coming warming, core conditions will be disappearing 43

44 Managing ecosystem based on relationships, not stand alone Photo: S. Haeuessler Photo: C. Wong Understanding context will help: Local, regional abiotic habitat, proximity to alternative food sources 44

45 Acknowledgements Co-Supervisor: Phil Burton Field assistants: Andrew Sheriff, Laura Super, Coralie Lenne, Nata de Leeuw, Mark Wong, Nick Thum

46 Co-Supervisor: Phil Burton Acknowledgements Field assistants: Andrew Sheriff, Laura Super, Coralie Lenne, Nata de Leeuw, Mark Wong, Nick Thum Data: Carmen Wong, Randy Moody, Alberta Parks, Parks Canada, BC BEC program, Elizabeth Campbell, Matthew Gelderman, Sybille Haeussler, Stefan Zeglen, Bonnie Hooge, Joanne Vinnedge, Government of Alberta, Government of BC 46