Residential Wood Combustion Emissions Inventory Project for the MANE-VU Region

Transcription

1 Residential Wood Combustion Emissions Inventory Project for the MANE-VU Region Megan Schuster, MARAMA Annual RPO Meeting, St. Louis, MO November 4-6, 2003

2 RWC Background Information Survey methodology and sample frame Survey results Two approaches to analyze data Issues/ Problems

3 Residential Wood Combustion Project Background Origin of RWC project: Assessment of Emissions Inventory Needs for Regional Haze Plans RWC Emissions High contribution to regional haze Contribute approx. 8% of PM fine in MANE-VU region Large uncertainty Important local source to Class I areas States have the potential to improve the activity data

4 RWC EIIP suggested methodology: Survey Project Intent: To estimate activity data and an emissions inventory from residential wood combustion in the MANE-VU Region through survey methodology Contract: E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc.

5 Survey Telephone approach (CATI) Survey questionnaire based on previous studies (esp. CARB study) Intended to obtain information on wood burning equipment type and wood type

6 Survey Sample Frame Sample frame Includes important variables that affect activity (i.e., annual wood consumption) Urban, suburban, or rural locations Type of housing (single versus multi-family homes) Forested versus non-forested areas Latitude Minimum sample size per cell = completed surveys Based on level of precision +/- 13.3%

7 RWC Sample Frame and (Number of Respondents) Geographic Zone High HDD Cell 1 (173) Low HDD Cell 9 (150) Med HDD Cell 17 (87) Rural-Forested Rural-Non-Forested Suburban Urban Single- Other Single- Other Single- Other Single- Other Cell 2 Cell 3 Cell 4 Cell 5 Cell 6 Cell 7 Cell 8 (64) (87) (66) () (72) (69) (69) Cell 10 (62) Cell 18 (60) 1 Cell 11 (118) Cell 19 (91) Cell 12 (69) Cell 20 (64) Cell 13 (76) Cell 21 (71) Cell 14 (67) Cell 22 (60) 1 Cell 15 (75) Cell 23 (63) Cell 16 (62) Cell 24 (68) 1 Number of responses ended up being less than the target value of due to either: changes in the Disposition of one or more responses (i.e., change of address from the original sample); or dropping a response out of the final database (i.e., following QA of that response)

8 HDD Zones for MANE-VU Region HDD Zones Miles E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. Date: January 28, Source: 2000 U.S. Census. Figure 2. MANE-VU Region HDD Zones

9 Survey Results - Activity Data Summary of Wood Burners in MANE-VU Region 22% Burns wood 68% 10% Has wood burning equipment, did not burn wood No equipment, does not burn wood

10 Respondents Reporting Usage of Indoor Burning Equipment Rural-Non- Forested Single Other Cell 3 Cell Geographic Zone Single- High H D D Cell 1 67 Rural-Forested Other Cell 2 4 Single Cell 5 11 Suburban Other Cell 6 0 Single Cell 7 10 Urban Other Cell 8 2 Lo w H D D Cell 9 62 Cell 10 1 Cell Cell 12 2 Cell Cell 14 3 Cell Cell 16 5 Med HDD Cell Cell 18 5 Cell Cell 20 4 Cell Cell 22 2 Cell 23 4 Cell 24 0

11 Pechan s Analysis User Fraction: fraction of households that actually burn wood Wood consumers = 1 Respondents that do not burn wood = 2 Significant Difference b/w UF Single vs Multi unit households Geographic locations (U/S/RF/RNF) No Significant Difference b/w HDD level Annual Consumption: Amount of wood burned per household (cords/yr, or BTUs/yr) -- Normalized by HDD level Significant Difference b/w HDD level Low response rate in certain cells prompted Pechan to try to combine cells that were not significantly different

12 UF Cell by Cell Comparison LSD Test User Fraction by cell R F - HDD high single RNF - HDD hig h single R F - HD D high multi RNF - HDD hig h multi S - H DD high multi S - HDD high single U - HDD high multi U - HDD high sing l e RF - HDD low single RF - HDD low multi RN F - HDD low multi RNF - HDD low single S - HDD low multi S - HDD low single U - HDD low single U - HDD low multi RF - HDD med single RF - HDD m e d multi RNF - HDD med multi RNF - HDD m ed single S - HDD med single S - HDD med multi U - HDD m ed single cell RF - HDD high single - * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * RF - HDD high multi * - * * * * * * * 64 3 RNF - HDD high single * - * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 87 4 RNF - HDD high multi * * - * * * * * * * 66 5 S - HDD high single * * * - * * * * * * * * * * 6 S - HDD high multi * * * - * * * * * * * * 72 7 U - HDD high single * * * - * * * * * * 69 8 U - HDD high multi * * * - * * * * * * 69 9 RF - HDD low single * * * * * * - * * * * * * * * * * * * * RF - HDD low m ulti * * * * * - * * * * * RNF - H DD low single * * * * * * * - * * * * * * * * * * RNF - H DD low multi * * * * * - * * * * S - HDD low single * * * * * * * * * - * * * * * * * * S - HDD low multi * * * * * * - * * * U - HDD low single * * * * * * - * * * * U - HDD low m ulti * * * * * - * * * RF - HDD med single * * * * * * * * * * * - * * * * * RF - HDD med multi * * * * * * - * * RNF - HDD med single * * * * * * * * * * * * - * * * * * RNF - HDD med multi * * * * * * * - * S - HDD med single * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * - * * * S - HDD med multi * * * * * * * * * U - HDD med single * * * * * * * * U - HDD med m ulti * * * * * * * * * * * - 68 Even cell numbers=apartments * p<= U - HDD med m comp

13 AC Cell by Cell Comparison AC Cell by Cell Comparison R F - HDD high single RF - HDD high multi RNF - HDD high single R NF - HDD high multi S - HDD high single S - HDD high multi U - HDD high single U - H DD high multi RF - HDD low single R F - HDD low multi R NF - HDD low single R NF - HDD low m ulti S - HDD l ow si ngle S - H DD low multi U - HDD low single U - HDD l ow m ult i RF - HDD m ed single R F - HD D m ed m ulti R NF - HDD med single RN F - HDD m ed m ulti S - HDD m ed s ingle S - HDD m ed m ult i U - HDD m ed single U - HDD m ed m ulti comp per c ell LSD Test BTU/yr-HDD cell RF - HDD high single - * * * 67 2 RF - HDD high multi _ * * * * * * 4 3 RNF - HDD high single - * * * * * * * * 28 4 RNF - HDD high multi S - HDD high single S - HDD high multi - no cases 7 U - HDD high single * * * - * * 10 8 U - HDD high multi RF - HDD low single * - * RF - HDD low multi excluded 11 RNF - HDD low single * R NF - H DD low multi S - HDD low single * * * - * S - HDD low multi U - HDD low single * * * * - * U - HDD low multi * * RF - HDD med single * * * - * RF - HDD med multi RNF - HDD med single RNF - HDD med multi * * S - HDD med single * S - HDD med multi U - HDD med single * * * U - HDD med multi - no cases

14 Geographic Zone High HDD Cell 1 FP= 34 WS= 67 F/B= 21 PS= 4 Low HDD Cell 9 FP= 60 WS= 65 F/B= 5 PS= 2 Med HDD Cell 17 FP= 55 WS= 66 F/B= 7 PS= 7 Indoor Burning Equipment Reported (% burned) Rural-Forested Rural-Non-Forested Suburban Urban Single- Other Single- Other Single- Other Single- Other Cell 2 Cell 3 Cell 4 Cell 5 Cell 6 Cell 7 Cell 8 FP= 75 FP= 43 FP= 33 FP= 36 FP= 0 FP= 80 FP= 100 WS= 75 WS= 76 WS= 67 WS= 64 WS= 0 WS= 30 WS= 0 F/B= 7 F/B= 18 F/B= 50 PS= 0 PS= 0 PS= 0 PS= 0 PS= 0 PS= 0 PS= 0 Cell 10 FP= 100 WS= 0 PS= 0 Cell 18 FP= 60 WS= 60 PS= 0 Cell 11 FP= WS= 54 F/B= 4 PS= 4 Cell 19 FP= 59 WS= 45 PS= 9 Cell 12 FP= 50 WS= 50 PS= 0 Cell 20 FP= 100 WS= 0 PS= 25 Cell 13 FP= 70 WS= 35 PS= 5 Cell 21 FP= 81 WS= 27 F/B= 8 PS= 4 Cell 14 FP= 67 WS= 0 PS= 33 Cell 22 FP= 50 WS= 50 PS= 0 Cell 15 FP= 90 WS= 10 PS= 0 Cell 23 FP= 100 WS= 0 PS= 0 Cell 16 FP= 100 WS= 0 PS= 20 Cell 24 FP= 0 WS= 0 PS= 0

15 Collapsed Sample Frame for Indoor Equipment Use Geographic Zone Rural-Forested Rural-Non- Forested Suburban Urban Single Other Single Other Single Other Single Other High HDD Cell 1 Cell 2 Cell 3 Cell 4 Cell 5 Cell 6 Cell 7 Cell 8 Low HDD Cell 9 Cell 10 Cell 11 Cell 12 Cell 13 Cell 14 Cell 15 Cell 16 Med HDD Cell 17 Cell 18 Cell 19 Cell 20 Cell 21 Cell 22 Cell 23 Cell 24

16 Issues/ Problems 1. Collapsing data cells should only be based on statistical analysis 2. Subdividing cells by equipment type necessitates a larger sample size

17 Alternative Analysis Approach 1. Calculate emissions per survey response (based on equipment and wood type) 2. Analysis of Variance

18 Analysis of Variance Corrected Mean Household Emissions for a cell = M + A i +B j + C k +D ij +E jk +F ik M = Overall mean of household emissions A i = Mean of each applicable housing type for that cell M B j = Mean of each applicable geographic location (U/S/RF/RNF) M C k = Mean of each applicable HDD level M D ij = mean of ith house type /jth geo location mean ith house type mean of j geo location + M E ik = mean of ith house type/ kth HDD level mean ith house type mean kth HDD + M F jk = mean of jth geo location/kth HDD level - mean of jth geo location mean of kth HDD level + M

19 Future Implications Sample frame and minimum response rate requirement critical in obtaining useful information Survey questionnaire should not be too specific Improve EIIP to include suggested data analysis for survey methodology

20 Additional MANE-VU EI Projects Calculation sheets Develop calculation sheets using the preferred calculation method for the top area source categories and three non-road categories Final Sheets January 2004 Open Burning Project Improve emission estimates from open burning sources (Yard Waste Household Brush and Leaf Burning; MSW or Household Waste Burning; and Municipal Yard Waste Burning) through survey methods completed Final Revised Report November 2003 NIF 3.0 January 2004

21 Additional MANE-VU EI Projects Ammonia EI Project Pechan is creating an emissions inventory for the MANE-VU region for industrial refrigeration, cement plants, POTWs and composting Final EI and Report January 2004 Mobile Inventory - Pechan is creating a mobile emissions inventory for onroad and nonroad mobile sources Default data based on 2002 NEI January 2004 Onroad MOBILE6 input files, 2002 VMT database and Nonroad input files April 2004 Draft Final Inventory December 2004

22 Additional MANE-VU EI Projects Compilation of 2002 Area and Point Modeling Inventories Basis : State CERR submittals (June 2004) Augmented with other data gathered from EI Projects (Ammonia, RWC, Open Burning), and CEM data Absent data will be supplemented with 1999 NEI grown to 2002 (from EPA) Final Inventory will be used for modeling PM fine and regional haze Fall 2004

23 Draft Strawman Timeline PM-2.5 Designations 2.0 Estimate Natural & Baseline Conditions 3.0 Develop SIP Template 4.0 Ongoing Technical Support Activities 5.0 Prepare Final Technical Support Documents 6.0 Identify & Analyze Alternatives for Goals & Strategies 7.0 Develop Model Rules for Selected Sources and Adopt Rules 8.0 Develop Reasonable Progress Goals 9.0 Develop Long-term Strategy Agreement, Rules, & SIP 10.0 Submit SIP Key Preparation / Follow Up Core Activity