After the forests the humans die

Transcription

1 After the forests the humans die Page 0

2 Monitoring the state of forests and its importance in Europe (and beyond) & Walter Seidling Thünen Institute of Forest Ecosystems Page Warsaw 1

3 Outline What is ICP Forests? Who is working in forest monitoring? What do we do? Where do we work? Why do we do it? Thermo-Hydro-Measurement Unit (Picture: Lehmann) What do we learn? Page 2

4 Organisation and structure Page Warsaw 3

5 Political context UNECE CLRTAP EXECUTIVE BODY (EB) WGE (Working Group on Effects) EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) WGSR (Working Group on Strategies and Review) ICP Forests ICP Vegetation ICP Waters ICP Materials ICP Integrated Monitoring ICP Modelling & Mapping Task Force on Health JEG, Joint Experts Group on Dynamic Modelling Page 4

6 ICP Forests: Structure Page 5

7 Surveys Page Warsaw 6

8 Monitoring/ inventories/ growth studies De Vries, W., et al., 2014: Impacts of acid deposition, ozone exposure and weather conditions on forest ecosystems in Europe: an overview. Plant Soil: 380:1-45 Page 7

9 Surveys Litter and deposition collectors on a Level II site Crown condition Foliar chemistry Soil and soil chemistry Tree growth Ground vegetation Stand structure incl. deadwood Epiphytic lichens Soil solution chemistry Atmospheric depostition Ambient air quality Meteorology Phenology Litterfall Remote sensing annually every 2 years (Level II) every years every 5 years every 5-10 years test phase ongoing test phase ongoing continuously continuously continuously continuously several times per year continuously preferably at installation Page 8

10 Level I - international Distribution of broadleaves and conifers Percentage of damages Page 9

11 Level II - international Page 10

12 Level I - national cje/publikacje/informacjestatystyczne-i-raporty/raport-ostanie-lasow/raport-o-stanielasow-w-polsce-2014/view Page 11

13 Level II - national Deposition measurement are one of the most important surveys at the Level II sites; they are necessary for the calculation of Critical Loads and are reported at different political levels. Furthermore they are used as calibration values for e.g. EMEP data; Mean NH 4 -N deposition Page 12

14 Results and applications Page Warsaw 13

15 Model calibration High 2847 eq ha -1 a -1 Low 0 Measured deposition is higher than modelled Modelled deposition is slightly higher or equal Modelled deposition is higher than measured Page 14

16 Total N [kg N/ha*a] Model calibration UBA UBA MAPESI PINETI EMEP (v2013) ICP-Forests Level II Linear (EMEP (v2013)) Linear (ICP-Forests Level II) Year Page 15

17 Scientic papers No generally significant temporal variations in P deposition, over periods of up to 19 years, were evident. The data revealed no systematic spatial variation in P deposition, except for high rates at 11 sites in an area of Germany, probably due to local agricultural emissions from live-stock farming. Tipping, E., et al., 2014: Atmospheric deposition of phosphorus to land and freshwater. Environ. Sci.: Processes Impacts, DOI: /c3em00641g. Page 16

18 Ground level ozone concentrations and exposures April-September mean O 3 concentrations ranged from 19 to 64 ppb. The AOT40 threshold of 5 ppm h set to protect forests from adverse O 3 effects was exceeded on 75% of the plots. Page 17

19 Scientific papers A range of benchmark values of C densities and stocks, readily available for use in forest SOC (soil organic carbon) models operational from plot to continental scale could be provided. De Vos, B., Cools, N., Ilvesniemi, H., Vanguelova, E., Carnicelli, S., 2015: Benchmark values for forest soil carbon stocks in Europe: Results from a large scale forest soil survey. Geoderma : Page 18

20 Scientific evaluations Aggregation Estimation of tree specific crown defoliation Calculation of mean plot defoliation Calculation of European defoliation for each species Mean annual defoliation for Northern, Central, and Southern Europe Micro Meso Macro Scale CARNICER, Jofre, et al. Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2011, 108. Jg., Nr. 4, S Page 20

21 Trends in forest responses Plot mean defoliation (points) and trend (regional Sen s slope, red line) for pedunculate and sessile oak Tree species (group) Mann- Kendall Tau Regional Sen s slope P Overall mean [%] Mediterranean deciduous oaks* < Mediterranean evergreen oaks** < Mediterranean lowland pines*** < Pedunculate/sessile oak < European beech < Norway spruce < Scots pine Page 21

22 Damaging agents Fagus sylvatica Quercus petraea Quercus robur Abies alba broadleaved broadleaved-mixed broadleaved-coniferous-mixed coniferous-mixed coniferous Picea abies Pinus sylvestris Page 22

23 Defoliation [%] Defoliation and the influence on growth Growth [cm 2 /a] Page 23

24 Integrating Information Page Warsaw 24

25 Global Challenges of Air Pollution and Climate Change to Forests Contributions from ICP Forests (*: presenting, ** EMEP MSC-W. ***: ICP M+M) M. Nicolas : Global challenges of air pollution and climate change to the public forest management in France. M Ferretti*, K Hansen, V Calatayud, M Camino-Serrano, N Cools, B De Vos, TM Nieminen, N Potocic, P Rautio, M Schaub, V Timmermann, L Ukonmaanaho, P Waldner: Monitoring and modelling the long-term impact of air pollution on forest health and growth in Europe. T Sanders, W Seidling*: Accumulating influences on individual tree parameters: Focus on crown condition. M. Schaub*, M. Haeni, M. Ferretti, E. Gottardini, D. Simpson**, V. Calatayud: Ozone risk assessment for European forests - a ten-year study on permanent monitoring plots. O. Badea*, I. Popa, S. Leca, D. Silaghi: Effect of climate change on tree growth from intensive forest monitoring network in Romania. W. de Vries*, S. Etzold, M. Posch***, G. Jan Reinds***, L. Bonten, S. Solberg, P. Waldner, M. Schaub, D. Simpson**: Assessment of impacts of nitrogen deposition, ozone exposure and climate change on carbon sequestration by monitoring and modelling. Page 25

26 Reports and Tasks State of Europe s Forests an initiative of the Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forest in Europe (MCPFE process located at EEA). Chapters within the WGE/EMEP Trends Report Annual Executive Report Annual Technical Report Page 26

27 Scientific publications Page 27

28 Panic for nothing? Page 28

29 Panic for nothing? No! 1) Forest decline became one of the main drivers for negotiations for Europe wide air pollution control within the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). 2) Responding to the threats of acidification to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, the CLRTAP agreed on the terms for air pollution control throughout Europe based on scientific information and evidence. 3) Emission reductions have been achieved through changes in energy and industrial production means and processes, such as conversion from coal to natural gas and use of nuclear power. 4) Energy conservation and efficiency have also contributed to emission reductions. Page 29

30 We gratefully acknowledge the member states of ICP Forests with their numerous staff for collecting, financing, analysing, and submitting their data Page 30