Jo Van Brusselen, Alexander Moseyev, Hans Verkerk, Marcus Lindner. Item 4.b. Outlook-related work at EFI

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1 Jo Van Brusselen, Alexander Moseyev, Hans Verkerk, Marcus Lindner Item 4.b. Outlook-related work at EFI ToS EFSOS inaugural, 4-5 February 2009, UN-ECE/FAO, Geneva

2 Introslide EFI Research Strategy EFI maintains and develops its competencies in tools, methodologies and value added information systems, which enable international comparisons and future projections in its strategic research issues. For example, they include: - European Forest Resources Scenario Modelling (EFISCEN); - Global Forest Sector Model (EFI-GTM); - Sustainability Impact Assessment of the Forest Sector; - Forest mapping applications; - Value-added information services. > 10 recent projects at EFI are outlook oriented 2

3 Improvements EFSOS I EFSOS II Linkage between resource model and market model No country-wise resource limitations to fulfil countrywise demand Shortfall can be relocated (i.e. traded) with the market model Iterative steps between EFISCEN : European Forest Information Scenario Model EFI-GTM : Global Trade Model Growth changes (N-deposition; Climate change) 3

4 Outlook related projects since EFSOS I Forest Resource Projections 9 major studies (Eforwood, EEA bio-energy, BEE, ATEAM, climate change study, SENSOR, EXIOPOL, FOBIT, EUwood) Biodiversity Projections 1 major study (BioScore) Economic and trade projections 2 major studies (Eforwood, EEA bio-energy) 4

5 Outlook related projects since ETTS VI Forest Resource Projections CEPI1 Future Wood Supply from European Forests to the Pulp and Paper Industry Under Competing Demands ( 01-03) ATEAM Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (EFISCEN) ( 01-04) Study on Impacts of Climate Change on European Forests and Options for Adaptation ( 07-08) EFORWOOD Tools for Sustainability Impact Assessment of Forestry-Wood Chain (EFISCEN, ToSIA) ( 05-09) 5

6 Outlook related projects since ETTS VI FOBIT Forest-based Bioenergy and Its Climatic and Economic Viability an Integrated Analysis for Finland (EFISCEN) ( 08-09) SENSOR Sustainability Impact Assessment: Tools for Environmental, Social and Economic Effects of Multifunctional Land Use in European Regions (EFISCEN) ( 04-09) EEA Bio-Energy Study (EFISCEN) ( 05-06) EUwood Real potential for changes in growth and use of EU forests (EFISCEN) ( 08-10) EXIOPOL A New Environmental Accounting Framework Using Externality Data and Input-Output Tools for Policy Analysis (EFISCEN) ( 07-11) 6

7 Outlook related projects since ETTS VI Biodiversity Projections BioScore Biodiversity Impact Assessment Using Species Sensitivity Scores (BioScore tool) ( 06-09) Economic and trade projections EFORWOOD Tools for Sustainability Impact Assessment of Forestry-Wood Chain (EFI-GTM) ( 05-09) EEA Bio-Energy Study (EFI-GTM) ( 05-06) 7

8 Scenario types - Inputs &/ Outputs Project RES LUC CC BIO Soc-Ec Summary ATEAM O 11 O 0I 1I 2 6 Summary EFSOS I I O1 7I 3 4I 8I CEPI1 O I SENSOR O I IO IO Eforwood ToSIA O IO Eforwood EFISCEN O IO Eforwood EFI-GTM I O EEA Bioenergy O I I BioScore I O Adaptation O O EXIOPOL O I I O FOBIT O I IO EUwood O I I I I 8

9 EFISCEN modelling framework 9

10 Results IPCC Emission scenarios (EU15-LU-GR) Biomass carbon stock changes between 2000 and 2020 Forest management: 54 to 67 Tg C yr -1 Climate change: 12 to 14 Tg C yr -1 Forest area changes: 1 to 4 Tg C yr -1 Total: 70 to 80 Tg C yr -1 10

11 How much biomass can Europe produce without harming the environment? (EEA Report 7/2006) Energy potential, Mtoe Competitive use of wood Additional potential due to N inputs Complementary fellings stemwood Complementary fellings residues EFI-GTM EFISCEN Year Forest residues 11 21/5/08

12 EFI-GTM model Global Forest Sector Model Partial equilibrium model Several regional agents maximize their profit/welfare under perfect competition Recursive model Dimensions 36 products (6 wood, 4 rec.paper, 26 forest industry products) 61 regions (31 in Europe) 1 3 existing production technologies + new technologies from investments EFI-GTM team:birger Solberg, Agricultural University of Norway Alexander Moiseyev, EFI Maarit Kallio, METLA

13 Forest Sector Model EFI-GTM to assess interactions with outside world and to track changes in material flows in the EU FWCs Scenarios on global changes changes in the forest products demand in China, increased wood supply from forest plantations, etc. Scenarios on EU policy changes (EU subsidies for renewable energy, forest conservation, etc. 13 Americas (10regions); Asia (12 regions); Africa (4 regions); Oceania (2 regions) Trade Demand for forest products: - Changes in prices Forest Industries: Changes in regional/process production Europe (32 regions) Forest Growing Stock, Increment, sustainable harvest: EFISCEN Demand for Bioenergy Bio-mass for energy supply: Changes in supply

14 Industrial Roundwood Harvest Development in EU27+ under A1 & B2 reference and MAX NATURA2000 level (25% in 2025) Million m Historic harvest A1 B2 NATURA2000(A1) NATURA2000(B2) EFSOS_Base EFSOS_Integration EFSOS_Conservation

15 Development of net import trade flows of wood and wood based products between EU and other global regions, M m3. Source EFI/WFSE Forest Products Trade Flow Database 60 (round wood equivalent) Net trade, Mill m CIS Latin Am & Carib North America Africa Asia & Pacific EU NET IMPORT

16 2005 base trade flows of wood and wood based products (round wood equivalent) between EU and other global regions, M m3. Source EFI/WFSE Forest Products Trade Flow Database

17 Project timelines Project ATEAM EFSOS CEPI1 SENSOR Eforwood EEA Bio-Energy BioScore Adaptation EXIOPOL FOBIT EUwood BEE 17