The use of science?? for policy development and management of caribou

Transcription

1 The use of science?? for policy development and management of caribou Stan Boutin Craig DeMars, University of Alberta Robert Serrouya, Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute Melanie Dickie, Ablberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute

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4 Status of Boreal Caribou An ecotype of woodland caribou

5 Status of Boreal Caribou An ecotype of woodland caribou

6 Status of Boreal Caribou Federally listed as Threatened

7 Lambda; λ Abundance YEAR

8 Status Serrouya et al. 2017, JWM Hervieux et al. 2013, CJZ

9 Status of Boreal Caribou Sustained population declines Cumulative population change (%) Hervieux et al. 2013, Can. J. Zool.

10 State of Science Mechanism(s) of Decline The proximate cause is predation

11 State of Science Mechanism(s) of Decline The proximate cause is predation 1. Why are caribou susceptible to increasing rates of predation? 2. What are the ultimate causes of increasing rates of predation?

12 State of Science Mechanism(s) of Decline Why are caribou susceptible to increasing predation? Predation + Probability of encounter Probability of death given the encounter

13 State of Science Mechanism(s) of Decline Why are caribou susceptible to increasing predation? Evolutionary Strategies High probability of encounter Large Body Size Fast probability High Reproductive of death on encounter Rate

14 State of Science Mechanism(s) of Decline Why are caribou susceptible to increasing predation? Evolutionary Strategies probability of encounter Spatial separation

15 State of Science Mechanism(s) of Decline Why are caribou susceptible to increasing predation? Uplands Peatlands Peatlands provide a relative refuge for caribou

16 State of Science Mechanism(s) of Decline Why are caribou susceptible to increasing predation? Evolutionary Strategies Ø Low reproductive rate Ø Easy to kill Spatial separation

17 State of Science Mechanism(s) of Decline What are the ultimate causes of increasing predation? probability of encounter predator numbers caribou-predator spatial overlap

18 State of Science Mechanism(s) of Decline What are the ultimate causes of increasing predation? predator numbers

19 Apparent competition: 1 o PREY 2 o PREY By-Catch

20 Apparent competition: Bergerud 1974, Bergerud and Elliot 1986, Seip 1992, Rettie and Messier 1998, McLellan et al. 2010, 2012, Schaefer 2003, James et al. 2004, Courtois et al. 2007, Serrouya et al. 2011, Latham et al. 2011, McLoughlin et al. 2003, Wittmer et al. 2005, 2007, Fryxell et al., o PREY 2 o PREY

21 State of Science Mechanism(s) of Decline What are the ultimate causes of increasing predation? caribou-predator spatial overlap

22 State of Science Mechanism(s) of Decline What are the ultimate causes of increasing predation? caribou-predator spatial overlap Supporting evidence: James & Stuart-Smith 2000, J. Wildl. Manage.; Latham et al. 2011, J. Wildl. Manage.; Whittington et al. 2011, J. Appl. Ecol.; Tigner et al. 2014, J. Wildl. Manage.; DeMars & Boutin 2017, JAE

23 State of Science Mechanism(s) of Decline What are the ultimate causes of increasing predation? Linear features may also increase predator hunting efficiency Supporting evidence: James & Stuart-Smith 2000, J. Wildl. Manage.; McKenzie et al. 2012, Interfocus; Dickie et al. 2016, J. Appl. Ecol.

24 State of Science Mechanism(s) of Decline What are the ultimate causes of increasing predation? Landscape disturbance Supporting evidence: Courtois et al. 2007, Ecoscience; Vors et al. 2007, J. Wildl. Manage; Wittmer et al. 2007, J. Anim. Ecol.; Sorensen et al. 2008, J. Wildl. Manage.; Courtois et al. 2008, Can. J. For. Res.; Johnson et al. 2015, Biol. Conserv.; Rudolph et al. 2017, Biodivers. Conserv.

25 State of Science Mechanism(s) of Decline What about other mechanisms? Food / Nutrition Disease

26 State of Science Summary Ø Sustained population declines in many boreal caribou herds Ø We know enough to act Ø Drastic measures will be required

27 State of Conservation Efforts Overview I. Treat the Cause Habitat protection and restoration II. Treat the Symptoms Predator control Control of alternate prey Penning

28 State of Conservation Efforts Habitat Protection and Restoration [the] local population range is the relevant spatial scale for the identification of critical habitat that includes the habitat conditions (quantity, quality and spatial configuration) required by caribou Scientific Review for the Identification of Critical Habitat for Boreal Caribou (2008)

29 State of Conservation Efforts Habitat Protection and Restoration 2012 Federal Recovery Strategy:..identifies 65% undisturbed habitat in a range as the disturbance management threshold, which provides a measurable probability (60%) for a local population to be self-sustaining.

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31 State of Conservation Efforts Habitat Protection and Restoration The Conundrum: Many ranges far exceed 35% threshold Range management is ultimately up to the provinces

32 The disturbance-lambda correlation Caveats Latitude and disturbance are highly correlated The link to increased predation only partially tested Will restoration restore the predator-prey dynamic?

33 The climate twist Dawe and Boutin 2012, 2016

34 The climate twist Probability of Deer Winter Severity Index Dawe and Boutin 2012, 2016

35 The climate twist Dawe and Boutin 2012, s 1990s

36 The disturbance-lambda correlation Caveats Latitude and disturbance are highly correlated The link to increased predation only partially tested Will restoration restore the predator-prey dynamic?

37 State of Conservation efforts Habitat Protection No Harvest 30% Age > 140 yr 40% Age > 140 Yr

38 State of Conservation Efforts Habitat Restoration The Conundrum, Part II: How do we restore caribou habitat?

39 State of Conservation Efforts Habitat Restoration The Conundrum, Part II: How do we restore caribou habitat? The BC Example (S. Wilson, EcoLogic Research) Ø Approx. length of linear features in 6 boreal caribou ranges in BC: 165,000 km Ø Approx. length of linear features requiring treatment to establish a recovery pathway: 60,000 km Ø Estimated restoration costs: $10,000 20,000 per km

40 State of Conservation Efforts Habitat Restoration The Conundrum, Part II: How do we restore caribou habitat? The BC Example (S. Wilson, EcoLogic Research) Ø At 10-20x current effort, years to complete treatments

41 State of Conservation Efforts Habitat Restoration The Conundrum, Part III: How do we grow 50+ year old trees faster than 50 years???

42 State of Conservation Efforts Overview I. Treat the Cause Habitat protection and restoration II. Treat the Symptoms Predator control Control of alternate prey Penning (Safe Havens)

43 Management Experiments To Test Recovery

44 Management Experiments To Test Recovery Hervieux et al. 2013, CJZ Serrouya et al. 2017, JWM

45 18 populations

46 RESPONSE METRIC: Δλ = λ after λ before CHANGE IN LAMBDA

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52 8 of 12 increased λ 6 of 8 λ > 1

53 Klin-se-za

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55 Adaptive Management Experiments Invading Prey Predators } GO HARD Pull multiple levers

56 State of Conservation Efforts Pull Multiple Levers Now is the time to act. Consider that, in the Little Smoky and A La Peche ranges, Alberta has engaged in no less than ten separate study/ stakeholder engagement or task force approaches to reviewing and recommending, over the last thirty or forty years. Having studied the situation for decades, time is running out for action.

57 State of Conservation Efforts Pull Multiple Levers declining population trends and recruitment rates, as well as very high wolf densities, suggests that population and predator management are required to achieve stable or increasing population trends. A large scale pen/predator fence is recommended as the most effective method of increasing survival of both calves and adult Boreal Caribou; wolf control within the range would also be required.

58 Parting Thoughts We understand caribou-human dynamics well enough to know we need to act aggressively Details are not important Conservation will require all tools to be used Use adaptive management experiments to advance Some herds may never be self-sustaining

59 Parting Thoughts The elephant in the room... Murray et al. 2015, Biol. Conserv.

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61 Acknowledgements Marie Auger-Methe, Antje Bohm, Greg Breed, Brad Culling, Melanie Dickie, Jonathan Potts, Uli Schlaegel, Steve Wilson

62 Acknowledgements Klinse-Za Pen:, Saulteau West Moberly First Nation Photo Credits: Wolf: Harry van Oort, Caribou etc: Rob Serrouya, Moose: Saakje Hazenberg, Cougar: Corey Bird, RCRW, Holling: Simon Fraser University Public Affairs and Media Relations - Flickr: Buzz Holling, CC BY 2.0,

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64 Questions?

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