Navigating Climate Change: the Role of the Terrestrial Biosphere

Transcription

1 Navigating Climate Change: the Role of the Terrestrial Biosphere Scott Goetz Northern Arizona University g2p2pop workshop Flagstaff, AZ Sept 2018

2 Trends in Global Air Temperature Patterns NASA GSFC Visualization Studio

3 Trends in Global Air Temperature Patterns NASA GSFC Visualization Studio

4

5 Global 3D CO 2 Concentration Patterns & Circulation

6 Global 3D CO 2 Concentration Patterns & Circulation

7 Dynamics of the Global Biosphere are monitored by Earth Observing Satellites NASA GSFC Visualization Studio

8 Dynamics of the Global Biosphere are monitored by Earth Observing Satellites NASA GSFC Visualization Studio

9 The Global Carbon Budget ( ) 34.1 GtCO 2 /yr 91% 16.4 GtCO 2 /yr 44% Sources = Sinks 31% 11.6 GtCO 2 /yr globalcarbonproject.org 9% 3.5 GtCO 2 /yr ~38 GtCO 2 /yr ~17 billion tons C/yr 26% 9.7 GtCO 2 /yr

10 Forests and climate change feedbacks Bonan (2008) Science 320: Bonan & Doney (2018) Science 359(6375) Credit: Nicolle Rager Fuller, National Science Foundation

11 Satellite derived map of Global Tree Cover and annual Forest Losses & Gains * Hansen et al. (2013) Science 342(6160): *now available through 2017 via UMD GLAD & WRI GFW

12 Curtis et al. (2018) Science 361: Primary Drivers of Forest Cover Loss 2001 to 2015

13 Recent climate change, Arctic amplification & the changing terrestrial biosphere Recent mean Ta -vs- longer-term mean Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)

14 Changes underway in Arctic & Boreal Biomes IPCC AR5, WG2, Chap.4

15 Leadership Group Scott Goetz (Science Lead) Charles Miller (Deputy Lead) Peter Griffith (CCE GSFC) -Liz Hoy, Dan Hodkinson, Libby Larsen Eric Kasischke & Mike Falkowski (Project Hank Margolis (Program 85+ projects 500+ Science Team members above.nasa.gov

16 ABoVE is a large-scale NASA-led study of environmental change in Arctic & boreal regions and the implications for ecological systems and society Our overarching Science Question is How vulnerable or resilient are ecosystems and society to environmental change in the Arctic and boreal region (of western North America)?

17 Spatial domain & core site locations

18 S C A L I N G S T R A T E G Y

19 ABoVE Airborne Intensives ABoVE airborne campaigns in 2017 & 2020 Goals: Provide domain-wide context to unify sitelevel process studies Link to satellite remote sensing Demonstrate new remote sensing technologies and multi-sensor data analyses above.nasa.gov

20 2017 Airborne Campaign Data Acquisitions 10 aircraft teams Early Spring (April) through late Fall atmospheric [CO2] & methane [CH4] concentrations to characterize carbon fluxes Spring (mid May mid June) Multifrequency Radar (UAVSAR and AirMOSS) to characterize soil moisture and active layer Summer (peak growing season) LVIS lidar to characterize veg structure AVIRIS-ng hyperspectral for veg composition + AirSWOT (Ka band for lakes & inundation area) + CFIS (solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence) + ASCENDS lidar profiles of atmos [CO2] Fall (late August mid Oct) Multifrequency Radar (UAVSAR & AirMOSS) to characterize maximum active layer depth For details visit above.nasa.gov/airborne.html

21 Visit NASA's Terrestrial Ecology Website m Search Home About Implementation Plan Working Groups are the Core of ABoVE Science Efforts ABoVE Working Groups -- ABoVE WG Telecon List: above_wg_telecon@cce.nasa.gov -- Join a WG: click "join" to send with your name/affiliation to web support -- ABoVE Projects - Measurements - WG Members Summary Excel Report >> -- Ad Hoc Working Groups >> Sign In My Account Sign Out above.nasa.gov Science Team Airborne Planning Meetings & Events Publications Data Safety & Logistics Funding Working Group >> description List Members Join Measurements of WG Projects (excel) Hydrology & Permafrost >> above_wg_hydrology@cce.nasa.gov Members >> join excel Vegetation Dynamics >> above_wg_vegdynamics@cce.nasa.gov Members >> join excel Fire Disturbance >> above_wg_fire@cce.nasa.gov Members >> join excel Carbon Dynamics >> above_wg_carbon@cce.nasa.gov Members >> join excel Wildlife & Ecosystem Services >> above_wg_wildlife@cce.nasa.gov Members >> join excel Modeling Framework & Comparisons >> above_wg_modeling@cce.nasa.gov Members >> join N/A Airborne Science >> above_wg_airborne@cce.nasa.gov Members >> join excel Airborne Ops above_airborne_ops@cce.nasa.gov Members >> join N/A

22 Vegetation Dynamics Greening & Browning of The New North AVHRR GIMMS 3G Growing Season NDVI Trends 8 km res In some Boreal forest areas satellite observed productivity declines with warming & drying (drought / high VPD) Goetz & Rogers from Appenzeller The New North article in Science (Aug 2015)

23 2016 Moreover, satellite-based indices of vegetation productivity, calibrated & validated with extensive field measurements, show varied responses to higher air temperatures (greater mortality rather than widespread greening )

24 Fire Disturbance

25 The composition of boreal forest post-fire depends on the severity of burning Greater burn severity results in more deciduous tree cover composition changes persist for decades OL = 10 cm OL = 5 cm OL = 2 cm post-fire organic layer depth burn severity Burn severity is estimated at field sites by measuring roots exposed after soil organic matter is combusted Burn severity is estimated spatially using satellite indices of surface reflectance (e.g. dnbr the normalized difference burn ratio)

26 Severe Fire Disturbance Changes Boreal Composition altering Energy, Carbon & Water cycles Linked Energy, Carbon & Water exchanges with the atmosphere

27 Changes in Boreal composition may be a factor in the observed increase of seasonal CO2 Amplitudes in the Arctic boreal region

28 Fire induced deciduous forest change in recent decades

29 Harvest and Insect disturbance also alter nutrient & carbon budgets Spruce budworm & aspen caterpillar defoliation in NE Alberta Photo by Ted Hogg

30 Carbon Dynamics USGS scientist, Dornblaser, and graduate student, Johnston, measue lake CO 2 & CH 4 concentrations Lake chemistry monitoring system (Striegl) (b) (b) Installation of soil respiration, temp. and moisture system (Natali) [Credit: Kimball-04] Student measures organic layer depth at Nome Creek (Natali)

31 Hydrology & Permafrost Dynamics Resistivity (ohm-m) (c) Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) Thawed at depth, potentially leading to future thermokarst and coalescing bogs? A B C A B C (c) Minsley, Striegl et al. ABoVE ongoing active field measurements

32 Impacts and feedbacks to local, regional, and global systems C1

33 ABoVE is ultimately about coordinating & facilitating transdisciplinary science in a resiliency / vulnerability framework IPCC AR5 WG2 Chapter 4

34 ..and Capturing Vulnerability / Resiliency in Models Model-Data Integration Framework Model Development & Results Fisher et al Missing pieces to modeling the Arctic-Boreal puzzle. Environmental Research Letters, ABoVE Focus Collection

35 Changes underway in Tropical Forest Biomes IPCC IPCC AR5, AR5, WG2, Chap.4

36 Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation Earth s first comprehensive and high resolution data set of ecosystem structure Ralph Dubayah (PI) Deputy PI, Instrument: J. Bryan Blair Deputy PI, Science: Scott Goetz

37 NASA Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation Platform: International Space Station, Japanese Experiment Module Images from Ralph Dubayah (PI), Univ. of Maryland

38 Images from Ralph Dubayah (PI), Univ. of Maryland GEDI Data Acquisition 25m diameter (7m accuracy) footprint will record full waveform reflected signal 12 Billion observations expected over 2 years Coverage: 51.5 S to 51.5 N

39 Landsat - Lidar Canopy Height 30m 0

40 Landsat Lidar Aboveground Biomass (C stocks) CT1 Amazon Basin Congo Basin SE Asia Baccini et al Nature Climate Change

41 Lidar 3D Canopy Structure Habitat and Biodiversity Vegetation Canopy Vertical Structure has long been associated with Derived from GEDI-like lidar Habitat Suitability & Utilization

42 Images from Ralph Dubayah (PI), Univ. of Maryland

43 Images from Ralph Dubayah (PI), Univ. of Maryland

44