Assessing progress toward success of local reintroductions within metapopulation: the Bearded vulture restoration in France

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1 Assessing progress toward success of local reintroductions within metapopulation: the Bearded vulture restoration in France Jb Mihoub, N. King-Gillies, C. Tréhin, C. Kerbiriou & F. Sarrazin

2 Reintroductions in the biodiversity conservation arena Improving conservation status of focal species Global, regional and / or local scales Reintroduction aims Seddon et al Science

3 Reintroductions in the biodiversity conservation arena Improving conservation status of focal species Global, regional and / or local scales Restoring ecological processes Ecosystem functions & dynamics Seddon et al Science

4 Reintroductions in the biodiversity conservation arena Improving conservation status of focal species Global, regional and / or local scales Restoring ecological processes Ecosystem functions & dynamics Need assessing progress e.g. demographic criteria <=> IUCN Seddon et al Science Robert et al Anim. Cons.

5 Reintroductions in the biodiversity conservation arena Improving conservation status of focal species Global, regional and / or local scales Restoring ecological processes Ecosystem functions & dynamics Need assessing progress e.g. demographic criteria <=> IUCN conservation legacy conservation gain conservation dependence recovery potential Global conservation assessment IUCN «Green List» Seddon et al Science Robert et al Anim. Cons.; Akçakaya et al Biol. Cons.

6 Population size Dynamic of newly founded (reintroduced) population (1) Establishment Released costs Initial disequilibrium Low density, stochasticity (2) Growth Reproduction from wild-born High population growth rate Strong increase of population size Time (3) Regulation Stable population size Carrying capacity - habitat availability Negative density-dependance (Sarrazin Ecoscience)

7 Population size Dynamic of newly founded (reintroduced) population When assessing success? pessimistic optimistic relevant (1) Establishment Released costs Initial disequilibrium Low density, stochasticity (2) Growth Reproduction from wild-born High population growth rate Strong increase of population size Time (3) Regulation Stable population size Carrying capacity - habitat availability Negative density-dependance (Sarrazin Ecoscience; Robert et al Anim. Cons.)

8 Reintroduced population within metapopulation Local reintroduced populations can fail to establish in conditions that would enable long-term persistence (Armstrong & Seddon 2008)

9 Reintroduced population within metapopulation Local reintroduced populations can fail to establish in conditions that would enable long-term persistence (Armstrong & Seddon 2008) Mortality Dispersal (Le Gouar, Mihoub & Sarrazin, 2011)

10 Reintroduced population within metapopulation Local reintroduced populations can fail to establish in conditions that would enable long-term persistence (Armstrong & Seddon 2008) Mortality Dispersal (Le Gouar, Mihoub & Sarrazin, 2011) Conspecific attraction : increase risk of establishment failure, especially within metapopulation (empirical: Le Gouar et al. 2008; theoretical: Mihoub et al. 2009, 2011)

11 Reintroduced population within metapopulation Local reintroduced populations can fail to establish in conditions that would enable long-term persistence (Armstrong & Seddon 2008) Mortality Dispersal (Le Gouar, Mihoub & Sarrazin, 2011) Conspecific attraction : increase risk of establishment failure, especially within metapopulation (empirical: Le Gouar et al. 2008; theoretical: Mihoub et al. 2009, 2011) Can t wait regulation, interim assessements required!

12 The Bearded vulture as a study case Species overview Long-lived: up to 45 years in captivity Clutch : 1 to 2 eggs / year ; 1 fledgling Feeding: 85 90% bone Wingspan: m Weighs: kg (Gypaetus barbatus)

13 The Bearded vulture as a study case Species overview Long-lived: up to 45 years in captivity Clutch : 1 to 2 eggs / year ; 1 fledgling Feeding: 85 90% bone Wingspan: m Weighs: kg Conservation status Globally : mat. ind. Decreasing (LC until 2014) EU: mat. ind. France: mat. ind. (Gypaetus barbatus)

14 The Bearded vulture as a study case Resident Extinct Reintroduced

15 The Bearded vulture as a study case Resident Extinct Reintroduced Release site Reintroduction (Alps) since 1986 >200 ind. released ~ 52 pairs in 2018 Conservation legacy Substantial (30-40% pop. size) Conservation dependence Moderate to large

16 The Gypconnect program: bridging the gap Resident Extinct Reintroduced Release site Release site Gypcon.

17 Reintroduction strategy Start 2015 end sites (2 Pre-Alps, 1 Central) 4-8 juv. released /year Individual monitoring (ring & GPS)

18 Reintroduction strategy Start 2015 end sites (2 Pre-Alps, 1 Central) 4-8 juv. released /year Individual monitoring (ring & GPS) Scientific contributions Action A2 Scenarios of reintroduced populations establishment & connexions Action D1 Monitoring the impact of the project on the settlement of new populations & connections between populations Defining a priori expectations Metapopulation viability analysis Habitat suitability Assessing actual progress Evaluating release fate Producing success indicators

19 Reintroduction strategy Start 2015 end sites (2 Pre-Alps, 1 Central) 4-8 juv. released /year Individual monitoring (ring & GPS) Scientific contributions Action A2 Scenarios of reintroduced populations establishment & connexions Action D1 Monitoring the impact of the project on the settlement of new populations & connections between populations Expectations conservation gain recovery potential Actual progress conservation legacy conservation dependence

20 Predicting expected metapopulation viability Spatialy explicity individual-based model LANDSCAPE MAP - Pixel : suitable / unsuitable habitats - Patch : populations

21 Predicting expected metapopulation viability Spatialy explicity individual-based model DEMOGRAPHY LANDSCAPE MAP - Age-structured population model - Demographic parameters (literature) - Density-dependance (negative) - Pixel : suitable / unsuitable habitats - Patch : populations

22 Predicting expected metapopulation viability Spatialy explicity individual-based model LANDSCAPE MAP DEMOGRAPHY DISPERSAL - Age-structured population model - Demographic parameters (literature) - Density-dependance (negative) - Pixel : suitable / unsuitable habitats - Patch : populations - Emigration, Transfert, Immigration - Density-dependance (+ / -) - Individual movements (stochastic) - Kernel or Correlated Random Walk

23 Population size Predicting expected metapopulation viability Spatialy explicity individual-based model Dispersal scenario Extinction risk: - Low : 0-10% - highest within the first 6 years (e.g. program implementation) Population size: - Dependant on dispersal - Remain very small at the Gypconnect time scale

24 Predicting expected habitat suitability Niche modelling (King-Gillies et al. in prep.) Known breeding locations Environnemental variables (topography, habitat cover, lithology, climate)

25 Predicting expected habitat suitability Niche modelling (King-Gillies et al. in prep.) Known breeding locations Environnemental variables (topography, habitat cover, lithology, climate)

26 Predicting expected habitat suitability Niche modelling (King-Gillies et al. in prep.) Known breeding locations Environnemental variables (topography, habitat cover, lithology, climate)

27 Assessing actual progress Interim assessement - proposed criteria

28 Assessing actual progress Mortality Current status : 10 dead, 11 alive, 11 unknown Causes : electrocution, disease, (viper bite!) and poison Dead or recaptured Unknown (alive?) Alive (certain)

29 Assessing actual progress Dispersal / Mouvement (Tréhin et al. in prep.) Typical resident Typical long-distance mover

30 Assessing actual progress Dispersal / Mouvement (Tréhin et al. in prep.) Typical resident Typical long-distance mover Segmentation method (distance & speed- turning angle)

31 Assessing actual progress Dispersal / Mouvement (Tréhin et al. in prep.) Movement status (after 1 year)

32 # mover individuals Assessing actual progress Dispersal / Mouvement (Tréhin et al. in prep.) Movement status (after 1 year) Departure date (among movers)

33 # mover individuals Maximum distance (km) Assessing actual progress Dispersal / Mouvement (Tréhin et al. in prep.) Movement status (after 1 year) Departure date (among movers) R W W R Population site (Wild; Reintroduced)

34 Assessing actual progress

35 Assessing actual progress Keep calm or let s panic? Too early for reliable assessment gain support from decision analysis?!

36 Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change Urban et al Science

37 Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change Limited data Unaccessible data Good enough data Urban et al Science

38 Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change & the assessment under (reintroduction) conservation efforts Unaccessible data Limited data Good enough data State variables (population size, #mature individual, dead ind., potential distribution range) Process variables (survival rate, breeding success, movement & dispersal) Mostly for species population, much less on ecosystem function (O.M. recycling, disease control) Urban et al Science

39 Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change & the assessment under (reintroduction) conservation efforts Unaccessible data Limited data Good enough data State variables (population size, #mature individual, dead ind., potential distribution range) Genetic diversity? Local adaptation? Population isolation? Process variables (survival rate, breeding success, movement & dispersal) Mostly for species population, much less on ecosystem function (O.M. recycling, disease control) Bioaccumation (toxicity)? Urban et al Science

40 Acknowledgments All partners: with very special thanks to: Olivier Duriez (Uni. Montpellier) Franziska Lörcher (VCF) Pascal Orabi (LPO) Martine Razin (LPO) J.F. Seguin (PNR Corse) International Bearded vulture Monitoring