Estimation of net emissions from HWP

Transcription

1 Dipl. Ing. Silv. Sebastian Rüter, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institut (vti) Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries Institute for Wood Technology and Wood Biology, Hamburg, Germany Estimation of net emissions from HWP EG LULUCF Meeting 7 February 11, Brussels

2 BACKGROUND Proposal for HWP contribution to FM RL Based on the Integrated version of FCCC/KP/AWG/1/CRP.4/Rev.4 Use of product categories, half lives and methodologies as suggested in para Emissions from harvested wood products removed from forests which are accounted for by a Party under Article 3 shall only be accounted for by that Party. Accounting shall be on the basis of the first order decay function with default half lives of two years for paper, 25 years for wood panels, and 35 years for saw wood. Alternatively, for domestically produced and consumed harvested wood products only, a Party may use country specific data to replace the default half lives specified above, or to account for such products in accordancewith the definitions and estimation methodologies in the most recently adopted IPCC Guidelines and any subsequent clarifications agreed by the Conference of the Parties, provided that verifiable and transparent data are available. [Harvested wood products resulting li from df deforestation shall hllbe accounted for on the basis of instant oxidation.] The same suggested half lifes lifes (HL) were used for the projections, both for domestically produced and consumed as well as exported HWP 2

3 METHODOLOGY First order decay function (flow data method) C pool Inflow years year i service life n i+n Equation 12.1 for calculating the HWP carbon pool (IPCC 6) (1) k = decay constant as a function of service live & half life (HL) = ln(2)/hl HWP carbon pool years 3

4 ACTIVITY DATA Calculation of carbon Inflow to HWP pool Activity data from UNECE TIMBER database 11 (time series ) Application of sub categories of sawnwood, wood based panels and paper and paperboard in order to achieve more accurate results Classification Description of commodity Air dry density C conversion factor Source FAO UNECE [g/cm³] [Gg C/1m³] C Industrial roundwood, coniferous,45 2,25E 1 Kollmann, 1982 For calculation purposes only NC Industrial roundwood, non coniferous,67 3,35E 1 Kollmann, C Sawnwood, coniferous,45 2,25E 1 Kollmann, NC Sawnwood, non coniferous,67 3,35E 1 1 = 35 years) Kollmann, Veneer sheets,59 2,95E 1 IPCC, Plywood,48 2,42E 1 IPCC, Particle board,63 2,898E 1 Hasch, 2; Barbu, Hardboard,85 4,165E 1 Kollmann, 1982; Barbu, 11 wood based panels (HL = 25 years) Medium density fibreboard,725 3,19E 1 Hasch, 2; Barbu, x Fibreboard, compressed,788 3,54E 1 5% of Item 1647 and 5% of Item Other board (Insulating board),27 1,148E 1 Kollmann, 1982; Barbu, 11 paper and paperboard (HL = 2 years) Paper and paperboard,9 4,5E 1 IPCC, 6 4

5 METHODOLOGY Application of Equation (1) and (2) to calculate Inflow of HWP carbon removed from forests which are accounted for by the Party under Art. 3 (2) Industrial roundwood as raw material for the production of sawnwood, wood based panels and paper and paperboard only (3) in Mt C C in production of HWP C in HWP production from domestic harvest (Inflow) Approach follows the initial assumption that all forests in the particular country are managed, and in order to simplify matters, it is presumed that all harvest is allocated to forest management Assumption is to be verified and corrected where necessary. The final allocation of carbon in HWP to forests which are accounted for under Article 3 shall be part of a technical correction as suggested in para 15 quater, 27 of FCCC/KP/AWG/1/CRP.4/Rev.4 5

6 METHODOLOGY The annual carbon Inflow (= carbon in produced HWP) to the HWP pool prior to the first year for which activity data from TIMBER database is available for the particular country has been calculated from the average from the 5 years for which data is given. It is assumed to be the constant carbon pool Inflow for the time period back to 19. IPCC proposal to apply growth rate (e.g. 1,15 % yr 1 ) would result in production that is hardly realistic for countries with activity data since 199 Table: Historic time series of amounts and share of carbon Inflow to the HWP pool [in 1t C and %] (e.g. Germany) ,8% 92,6% 92,8% 93,7% 92,7% 91,1% 1% 91,8% 93,4% 92,9% 9% 94,% 93,9% 9% 92,9% 9% ,5% 93,5% 93,3% 93,5% 93,6% 92,9% 93,4% 93,1% 93,7% 93,2% 93,7% 93,7% ,3% 94,1% 97,3% 91,4% 91,4% 96,% 95,2% 94,6% 95,6% 94,3% 92,2% 89,9% ,% 88,% 91,1% 92,8% 94,1% 92,2% 91,3% 92,1% 85,7% 83,9% 6

7 HWP PROJECTIONS Projection of net emissions from HWP Assumption on future HWP production should be consistent with assumptions on future harvest Historic harvest (EU Submission) Production of Roundwood (UNECE) Projected harvest [in Mm³] Rates of change of the countries projected harvest as compared to the last five years average of historic harvest, for which up to date data was available, has been calculated and applied to estimate future HWP production C in production of HWP C in produced HWP from domestic harvest [in Mt C]

8 HWP PROJECTIONS Why 5 years? Historic harvest (EU Submission) Production of Roundwood (UNECE) Projected harvest [in Mm³] C in production of HWP C in produced HWP from domestic harvest [in Mt C] In order to smooth substantially varying time series* *a similar approach was chosen by Kangas and Baudin. 3. Modelling and Projections of Forest Products Demand, Supply and Trade in Europe, ECE/TIM/DP/3 8

9 HWP PROJECTIONS Why 5 years? Historic harvest (EU Submission) Production of Roundwood (UNECE) Projected harvest Average for 3 7 (e.g. GLOBIOM) [in Mm³] C in production of HWP C in produced HWP from domestic harvest [in Mt C] In order to smooth substantially varying time series* *a similar approach was chosen by Kangas and Baudin. 3. Modelling and Projections of Forest Products Demand, Supply and Trade in Europe, ECE/TIM/DP/3 9

10 HWP PROJECTIONS Why the latest 5 years for which historic information is available? Historic harvest (EU Submission) Production of Roundwood (UNECE) Projected harvest [in Mm³] C in production of HWP C in produced HWP from domestic harvest [in Mt C] Time series not close to present would over or underestimate growth rate (esp. for countries with large increase or decrease of harvest/production in recent years) 1

11 HWP PROJECTIONS Calculation of net emissions from HWP pool and RL (13 ) based on stock changes Historic harvest (EU Submission) Production of Roundwood (UNECE) Projected dharvest [in Mm³] C in production of HWP C in produced HWP from domestic harvest [in Mt C] [in Mt CO 2 ] 1 Proposed RL for HWP Historic net emissions 19,514 Projected net emissions

12 HWP PROJECTIONS Background information to be provided in report 12

13 Thank you very much for your attention More background information Contact