Fire Planning. Regional Fire Management Plan ACT GOVERNMENT

Transcription

1 ACT GOVERNMENT Fire Planning Regional Fire Management Plan Environment Division Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate

2 Overview Fire planning framework Background on fire in the ACT How the regional fire plan has been developed Data inputs Residual risk Present Discuss the plan Questions

3 ACT Bushfire Management Planning Framework Strategic Bushfire Management Plan (SBMP) requirement of the Emergencies Act reviewed every 5 years Responsibility of Minister for Emergency Services Strategic Bushfire Management Plan Regional Fire Management Plan (RFMP) bridges the gap between broad planning and specific operations planning of prescribed burns 5 Year Plan with a 10 year outlook Regional Fire Management Plan Bushfire Operational Plans (BOPs) operational annual plans - detail fire and fuel mitigation activities BOP Year 1 BOP Year 2 Bushfire Operational Plans BOP BOP Year 4 BOP Year 5

4 History of fire in the ACT

5 COPYRIGHT: Jeff Cutting

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7 Landsat February 3 rd 1983

8 2001

9 2001 from Mt Ainslie Lookout

10 Fire models and information used in the plan Data analysis (Phoenix tool used) Information into the Regional Fire Management Plan

11 Phoenix can be run for single fires as a predictive tool or for risk analysis. This fire uses the BOM forecast for February

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14 Fire Weather Major life and property fires generally occur at severe and extreme fire danger ratings.

15 Residual risk New concept for ACT (used in Victoria and Tasmania) The modelled risk with no treatments Compared to the risk with treatments (like prescribed burns)

16 Residual Risk Measures the effect fuel treatments such as planned burning Risk can be calculated for houses, water quality, ecological assets Assumptions: APZs treated Assumes grazing Grass 2 tonne/ha Fuel treatments, prescribed burning, bushfire Training, Fire Response, Community Education, Detection, Suppression, CFU s

17 Fire Weather Major impacts to life and property generally occur severe and extreme fire danger ratings Previous events in the ACT have enabled the development of nasty (~1 in 20 year) weather scenario It considers many parameters including wind speed and directions, wind change, duration of severe/extreme fire danger, drought index and grass curing

18 Canberra fire catchment and 1km ignition grid

19 Individual Phoenix fire ignition runs - examples Each of the 6599 fires is run individually. Metrics (fire size, house loss, area of plantation burnt, kms of powerline, biodiversity values etc) are calculated for each fire.

20 Loss for Ignition Location Expected (modelled) House Loss based on maximum fuels with minimum suppression Uses ACT address points Calculated using the most recent algorithm

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22 No Burning after 2018 BOP and SBMP? DRAFT

23 Risk to Life and Property Combined 2018 ACT NSW House Loss Burn Unit score Burnability of each block area considered and shown Focussed on address points as a surrogate for life and property

24 Baseline Analysis 530,000 burn simulations Assessed relationship between treatment levels and residual risk Understanding how the landscape responds Percentage Treated Residual Risk Annual Area Burnt % % % % % % % % % 855 If you treated everything you could still only achieve 14%

25 3% 5% 100%

26 Risk to ACT Catchments Shows maximum risk with no history of fire. Demonstrates that major risks come from areas outside the ACT. Demonstrates some risk from fires starting within the catchments

27 Debris Flow Risk to Catchments Shows 2018 Risk analysis

28 Ecological risk Tolerable fire interval (TFI) surrogate for biodiversity value that can be modelled with vegetation communities Measure of interval between fires to minimise loss of species for each vegetation community Fire management of ecological assets occurs at a range of fire planning levels TFI into models Site protection when possible Burn planning patchiness, ignition patterns, season selection, species requirements

29 Risk to Vegetation (biodiversity) Tolerable Fire Intervals. Scenario run with time since fire set to minimum TFI. Time since fire adjusted for: Fire history 2018 levels

30 Plan New developments 5 year planning Aboriginal fire management zones Optional burn areas to achieve a mosaic Ecological burn areas Cross-border burn planning

31 Inputs/Considerations Time since last burn, Mosaic across the landscape, Effect on residual risk, NSW fuel mitigation, TFI, Ecological Assets (long unburnt), Operational constraints/issues, Burnability Using optimisation software to assist timing Draft Version Requires consultation and endorsement.

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33 Zone Purpose Aboriginal Fire Management Zone (proposed) Areas established to support cultural burning to meet objectives defined by Traditional Custodians. Treatments may be aimed at meeting a range of cultural land management objectives such as the encouragement of bushtucker (e.g. yams), production of fiber for weaving, access to bark and other materials, or maintenance of a desirable vegetation structure. Treatments to be conducted in partnership with PCS. Location and extent Located in areas of cultural significance with ready access for Traditional Custodians and PCS staff. Extent suitable to encompass the ecosystems and values of interest and to support treatments that are both manageable and meaningful. Treatment types Prescribed cultural burning, slashing, physical removal and grazing. Treatment frequency Ecological impact Burning potentially high frequency and low coverage targeting small areas that are available to burn in a way that will meet cultural objectives. Physical removal as required to meet cultural objectives or support burning. Slashing / grazing as required to meet cultural objectives. Generally, cultural burning is not expected to be incompatible with ecological requirements. Where there is incompatibility between cultural burning and the management of rare or threatened species, habitats or communities, careful placement and delineation of the zone boundaries may be used. Alternatively, cultural burning operations may be conducted in a manner and under conditions that reduce impact on local communities

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35 Next Steps Public consultation in conjunction with ESA and the Strategic Bushfire Management Plan Finalise Rural Fire Management Plan - May-June

36 Questions