Economic Assessment of Intensive Culture

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1 Reprodued from JOURNAL OF FORESTRY, Vol. 76, No. 11, November 1978, by the FOREST SERVICE, U.S. Department of Agriulture, for offiial use. About This File:,. lhis file was reated by sanning the printed publiation. \ : Missans identified by the software have been orreted) hoever, some mistakes may remain. Eonomi Assessment of Intensive Culture Of Short-Rotation Hardwood Crops Dietmar W. Rose and DeanS. DeBell (Westvao photo of its hardwood plantations on Is land #3 on the Mississippi River.) ABSTRACT- Hardwood rops oppied on 4- and 10-year yles at spaings of 4 by 4 feet and 12 by 12 feet, respetively, appear eonomially feasible, while two-year oppie rotations do not. Short-rotation ulture merits serious onsideration and operational testing by industrial/and managers. Interest in short-rotation oppie rops of woody speies is inreasing. This trend is not so muh a result of foreseen shortages in hardwoods-nationally, hardwood removals are still well below growth (USDA Forest Servie 1973)-but reflet an inreased awareness of the potential eonomi advantages of growing wood fiber intensively. The apparent exess of ha:.dwood growing stok is largely a biologial surplus rather than an eonomi one sine, under urrent eonomi onditions, harvest and transportation are infeasible in many loations. Through onentration of high yields in relatively small areas lose to the pulp mills, intensive short-rotation ulture might remove many of the unertainties onneted with fiber supply from small woodlands and publi lands. Wood fiber produed this way might be heaper, but would 706/JouRNAL of FoRESTRY/November 1978

2 also require large amounts of apital. Lately, intensive ulture has also reeived attention for prodution of wood for energy (Inman, Salo, and MGurk 1977; Rose 1977). Dutrow and Sauier (1976) reassessed the eonomi impliations of short-rotation systems of oppiing syamore-"syamore silage." They onluded that only industrial landowners would find prodution profitable, and that eonomi feasibility for nonindustrial landowners would require substantial redutions in rop establishment osts and inreased pries for wood hips. We expanded on the analysis of these authors by inluding wider spaings and longer rotations and by assessing a muh wider range of prodution regions and osts. We also wanted to answer some rather speifi questions: (1) What an be paid for land? (2) How do spaing and rotation length affet profitability? (3) What is the impat of nitrogen fertilizer osts on profitability? (4) Ho;v does harvesting tehnology affet the general feasbility of the system? By evaluating the above matters, we hope to stimu Break-even requirements an be expressed as minimum required annual (ompounded) revenue flows or as minimum required average monetary yields in the years in whih harvests are sheduled. The latter is a simpler and perhaps more useful measure for omparing management systems, beause it is at the time of harvest that yields are atually realized. It is alulated as average total osts ompounded to the time of harvest. The minimum required harvest yield in dry tons per are is obtained by dividing the required finanial yield with the assumed prie per dry ton. Basi alternatives tested. -The management alternatives that ould be devised are obviously muh too numerous to allow omplete testing of all ombinations. Three are shown here to illustrate the range of intensive ulture philosophies from extremely short rotations with numerous oppiings to longer rotations with few oppiings (table 2). Table 1. Cost, yield, and value data, per are.1 late onsideration of short-rotation opportunities by Type of ost Average Low High industrial managers and identify some of the most -- Dollars -- ost-sensitive areas for future researh and development Land rent efforts. Eonomi model and input data. - We used the ost information in table 1. We believe the table gives realisti estimates of ost ranges aross the United States. The yield figures show the range that an be expeted in short-rotation ultures of speies like syamore, ottonwoods and poplars, and alders (Dutrow and Sauier 1976, Gordon 1975, DeBell 1972, Heilman et al. 1972). Cost and yield information were inputs for a ashflow program developed by Rose (1976). The model an be used to alulate ommon measures of projet performane suh as present net worth, internal rate of return, and paybak period. The emphasis of this study, however, is on break-even requirements whih determine the magnitude of revenues or physial yields required to over all diret osts of a speified management shedule or whih will make present net worth equal to zero. Land preparation Forest Methods Pasture Planting distane (feet) 2 by by 4 6 by 6 12 by Management Administration (annual) Fertilization (periodi) Weeding and protetion (rotation) Harvesting-hauling 2-year rotation 4-year rotation 1 0-year rotation Rejuvenation Regeneration Rehabilitation planting Yield (ovendry tons per are per year) 4 2 Prie hip value per ovendry ton Adapted from DeBell and Harms (1976). 6 Table 2. Three intensive-management alternatives. Alternative Ativity II Ill Year(s) in whih ativities take plae Land preparation Planting Fertilization every 2, beginning in 1st 1 1, 4, and every 4th Weed ontrol 2 2, 3, 12, 13 Harvesting every 2 every 4 every 10 Rejuvenation every 2, beginning in 3rd every 4, beginning in 5th 11 Regeneration planting 11 Rehabilitation Rotation of rootstoks, years Length of yle used in oppiing the rootstoks, years Number of oppiings per regeneration yle 4 4 Speial assumptions Rejuvenation osts1 low high medium Spaing 2 by 4 4 by 4 12 by 12 Yield low low to medium medium to high 11nludes fertilization in Alternative II. November 1978/JOURNAL OF forestry/707

3 With the number of 2-year oppiings that were assumed feasible for the rootstoks, one regeneration planting at year 10 was required for Alternative I. This short-rotation alternative uses lose spaings, sine they give the highest yields for extremely short rotations. Wider spaings in longer rotations will ath up with and exeed the yields of the narrowest spaings (Ek and Dawson 1976). Four oppiings in eah 10 year regeneration yle were assumed; yields were expeted to be low, but frequent fertilization would lessen rejuvenation osts. Alternative II also assumes four oppiings of the rootstoks, but length of the utting yle was inreased to 4 years. Low to medium yields are assumed with a 4- by 4-foot spaing, but medium yields are more likely with fertilization. Alternative III analyzes a 10-year rotation and one oppiing of the rootstoks. Medium to high yields are expeted with a 12- by 12-foot spaing. Fertilization is almost as intensive as for Alternative II, but rejuvenation osts are assumed to be lower. Five measures of performane-break-even yield, ost per dry ton, present net worth, internal rate of return, and paybak peliod-were alulated at a disount rate of 10 perent. Eah management alternative was evaluated for a 20-year period at the three general ost levels desribed in table 1. Results and Disussion Table 3 gives results of the analyses. Eah alternative was analyzed under two initial site onditions, forest or pasture, refleting differenes in need for preparation. Exept for Alternative I, the results of testing the alternatives under the three general levels of osts are also presented. For simpliity, hip value and annual land rent were kept at the average level of $35 per ovendry ton and $40 per are. The hip plie may be above average for some parts of the ountry. General Appraisal of the Alternatives The extreme short-rotation alternative (2- by 4-foot spaing and biennial harvest) does not seeni feasible even under the low-ost assumption.. Alternatives II One-year-old ottonwood utting on Westvao' s Island #3. (Photo by Wildon Roberts, Daily Amerian Republi Newspaper, Poplar Bll{ff, Mo.) and III appear to offer investment opportunities under some ombinations of osts and yields. Break-even yield requirements, espeially at the low-ost level, are less than the yields in many intensive ulture experiments (Heilman et al. 1972, Steinbek 1973, Gordon 1975). Alternative II appears more promising than Alternative III. Given average ost, prie, and yield it offers a rate of return of 14 perent for sites that do not require initial learing (11-4). These results, however, should Table 3. Results of eonomi analyses of intensive ulture alternatives.1 Assumed levels of2 Required yield Required mean Cost per dry ton of Present net Alternative Costs Yield Site at eah harvest annual growth fiber produed worth per are -- Dry tons per are Dollars --- Perent Years 1-1 L L Forest <0 N 1-2 L L Pasture <0 N 1-3 M L Forest <0 N 1-4 M L Pasture <0 N Internal rate of return 11-1 L M,Forest L M Pasture M M Forest N 11-4 M M Pasture H M Forest <0 N 11-6 H M Pasture <0 N Paybak period L M Forest N L M Pasture M M Forest N M M Pasture N H M Forest <0 N H M Pasture <0 N 1A/ternative rate of return was 10 perent; prie was $35 per dry ton delivered; rent $40 per are per year. 2L =low, M= average, H =high (see table 1). 3N =no paybak within prodution period; investment was not reovered. 708/JOURNAL OF FORESTRY/November 1978

4 be tempered with a reognition that Alternative II entails-new and less tried management methods, whereas proedures and equipment in Alternative III are fairly onventional in urrent woodpulp plantation management for southern pine and eastern ottonwood. Moreover, though annual prodution in densely spaed oppied stands was similar to that in 9-yearold seedling stands for blak ottonwood (Heilman et Table 4. Sensitivity of break-even requirements (dollars and tons per are) to a hange of $10 per are in four osts.1 Annual First-year Harvest-year Fertilizer Alternative ost ost2 ost osp --- Dollars per are --- I II Ill al. 1972), there are indiations that in some speies the -- -Tons per are-- - mean annual inrement may not peak until 5 years or I later (DeBell 1972). In pratie, then, yields may be II 1.33 somewhat higher for the longer rotation. Ill 1.39 It is not the purpose of this paper to reommend one speifi alternative, but to explore some of the onditions neessary for intensive silviulture to beome eonomially feasible. Table 3 gives insight into this problem for general levels of osts, pries, and yields. Sensitivity analysis was introdued to explore more losely the types of onditions that would favor intensive ultures. Sensitivity analysis allows alulation, illustrating sensitivity of break-even yields to speified for any one or more fators, of the magnitude of hanges in ost fators and yield levels (fgures 1 to 3) hanges required to make an alternative eonomially and to allow further analysis. Along eah line representing attrative. one ombination of fators only the fator The effet of a hange in the produt prie is easy to along the horizontal axis is hanging. Any fator ombination alulate, beause the required yield at harvest (in below a horizontal harvest-yield line would tons) is inversely proportional to prie, i.e., an inrease return at least the alternative rate of return to the in in produt prie will redue break-even yields. vestment. Similar graphs an be produed with any The absolute effet of any prie hange on break-even other ost fator on the horizontal axis, but using the yields will vary with the magnitude of the yields, i.e., most ritial fators would reveal the most information. the higher the break-even requirement the greater the absolute impat of the prie hange. These effets an Changes in any additional ost fator-be it an annual, be easily alulated, given the prie under whih periodi, or a one-time ost-an be illustrated in break-even yields were originally determined. For the same graph beause they will result in a parallel example, with a prie of $25 per dry ton the required shift of a speifi break-even line. Again the shift in the yield at harvest of Alternative I-1 would beome line is linearly related to the size of the hange in the (break-even yield under old prie times the ratio of old additional ost fator. to new prie: 7.33 x 35/25). The required finanial If more than one ost fator is to be hanged, the yield (the total ompounded ost at the time of harvest) resulting hange in break-even requirements and or and ost per dry ton of fiber (ost divided by the responding shift in the. urve an be obtained by sum harvest yield) are naturally not influened by a prie ming the individual impats of the ost fators in table hange. 4. A $10 per are redution of all fators listed in the The impat of a prie hange on present net worth is table would, therefore, lower the harvest yield requirement obviously equal to the disounted (to the present) for Alternative I by 1.26 tons per are. value of the revenue hange aused by a prie adjustment. The slope of any line is an indiator of the sensitivity of break-even growth or yield to the fator on the hori To adjust break-even requirements for a hange in a zontal axis. Similarly, the magnitude of the shift of a speifi ost assumption, one only has to evaluate the line due to hanges in an additional ost fator is dependent hange in total ompounded osts at the time of harvest. on the sensitivity of break-even requirements To failitate further omparisons, table 4 was to a ost fator under onsideration. In Alternative I, onstruted. It shows the magnitude of adjustments in for example, break-even yields are 2.1 times more sensitive total ompounded osts and tons per are for important to a $10 per are hange in an annual ost than in types of osts. The orresponding hanges in the harvest ost. It should be kept in mind, however, present net worth are the values of table 4 disounted that a $10 hange is not so likely for some ost fators by the length of the utting yle of the various alternatives. as it is for others. Only prie hanges will ause a hange in the slope Beause the ompounding multipliers are not affeted, of break-even lines, and, therefore, lead to a hange in total ompounded osts (or break-even re the sensitivity of break-even yields to all other ost quirements) must hange linearly with hanges in any fators. one ost fator if all other fators are held onstant. To The sensitivity of break-even yields to a hange in evaluate the impat of a $20 per are hange in any annual osts obviously inreases with the length of the ost fator, one simply multiplies the table values by 2. rotation. Similarly, their sensitivity to any one-time It is thus possible to generate break-even yields or ost hange is greater the earlier this ost ours in the present net worth for any level of a speifi ost fator prodution period. In ontrast, a hange in harvest one one solution (here $10 per are hange) has been osts (or any other ost ourring in the last year of the found. harvest yle) will affet break-even requirements One figure was drawn for eah alternative to help in equally over all alternatives AII alulations based on to-perent disount rate. 2A $10-per-are hange in ost for a seond, third, or following year is equal to the value of a first-year ost hange disounted 1, 2, et., years. 31n Alternative II fertilization is sheduled also in the years in whih rejuvenation takes plae..38 November 1978/JOURNAL OF FORESTRY/709

5 -- -- With these general statements in mind, it is now possible to further analyze previous results. Figure 1 illustrates that Alternative I even at low land rent ($20 per are) would require yields far above the low levels. If average yields ould be obtained and low overall osts are assumed, the alternative beomes feasible. Harvest osts ould inrease by $23.10 per are before the alternative beomes infeasible. Unless average yields (at least 4 ovendry tons per are annually) an be onsistently attained, substantial hanges in urrent,... g JI () <ll en g 5.s:. Qj ;; (ii :: <ll <ll.s:. '5r Q) a: 0 0 $50 Harvest osts/are $100 $150 e Ol 2.s m Figure 1. Sensitivity of required growth and yield for management Alternative I to hanges in han,esting ost and prie. 25 li-3 :rr- 4 6 E s rq) a: s rq) a: $10 $30 $50 Land rent (are/year) lj -1 nr-2 6 0,... 2! -- Ill g : e Ol (ii :J ro 2 ff Figure 3. Sensitivity of Alternative Ill to hanges in land rent. ulture and harvest tehnology would be needed to make this alternative eonomial. With present knowledge and experiene, Alternative I must be onsidered risky. This finding is in ontrast with the onlusions reahed by Bowersox and Ward (1976), whose prodution ost estimates for 2-year oppie rops of even their least produtive lone were less than half the amounts indiated here. Harvest osts in their analysis, however, were assumed to be similar to osts in orn prodution. We believe osts will be onsiderably higher for harvesting hardwood oppie. Figure 2 shows how Alternative II is affeted by land rent, the most important ost fator in this ase. For any ipdiated line all fators exept land rent are held onstant. Generally, the alternative looks very promising under medium ost onditions both for pasture land as well as for forest sites. For the latter (II 3), rents would have to be $29.10 per are for eonomi feasibility. Rents below $30 per are for forested sites an be expeted in many parts of the ountry. Figure 3 for Alternative III is of speial interest beause it illustrates the great potential of the alternative if high yield an be obtained. Most ost fator ombinations fall below the high-yield line and would imply internal rates of return above the stated alternative rate of 10 perent. Even on a forest site (III-3) this alternative appears promising With high yields, beqmse rents below $40 per are are likely for most forestlands. Under average yield and otherwise average osts, rents would have to be $1.16 per are for forested sites and $22 per are for pasture to make Alternatives III-3 and III-4 feasible. Cost redutions below average levels for more than one fator would, therefore, be neessary for feasibility of Alternative III-3. Q) E 2! :: & L $30 $50 $70 Land rent (are/year) Figure 2. Sensitivity of Alternative II to hanges in land rent. Consideration of Speifi Prodution Costs Land ost and preparation. - Beause of differenes in site preparation osts (table 3), onversion of pasture and other marginal agriultural land will usually appear more promising than onversion of forest 710/JOURNAL OF FORESTRY/November 1978

6 land. A bias is introdued by looking only at a 20-year planning horizon, however. The initial ost advantage of agriultural sites applies only to the first oppie yle; site preparation osts would be similar for most sites when reestablishment beomes neessary. The results of the sensitivity analysis in table 4 also give an indiation of the trade-off between site preparation osts and land rent. For Alternative I II, a $10 per are hange in an annual ost suh as rent has over nine times the importane of a $10 hange in site preparation osts on break-even requirements in dollars or tons per are (159.37/17.02 or 4.55/0.49). In many situations, land rents for pasture and forest sites are likely to differ by $20 per are or more. Clearing forest sites for intensive ulture, therefore, might be attrative even at osts of $200 or more per are. Harvest. - During the past few years, whole-tree harvesting systems inluding saled-down feller bunhers, skidders, and mobile wood hippers have been developed and are being used for small-log harvest in onventional forests. For many sites these systems provide a seemingly aeptable means for harvesting intensively ultured, short-rotation rops. Compared with data provided by some equipment manufaturers, the harvesting osts used in our analyses are high. Only a minor redution in harvest osts ($21.72 per are) would be required to make Alternative III-1 eonomially attrative. Questions regarding systems and osts of harvest, espeially for very dense spaings and short rotations, have not been resolved. The need for new tehnology is less urgent for the wider spaings and utting yles longer than 10 years. Prototypes of highly mehanized harvesting systems for short-rotation rops are under development and may lead to major redutions in harvesting osts. Under average ost assumptipns, if harvesting osts for Alternative 11-3 were $80 instead of $160 per are, the required yield might drop by 2.3 tons or 13 perent, enough to raise the return to at least 10 perent. Planting. - Profitability is enhaned substantially by widening the spaing (e.g., 2 by 4 feet to 4 by 4 feet and wider) and lengthening the utting yle (2 to 4 or more years). Earlier analyses and reviews (Dutrow 1971, Smith and DeBell 1973) pointed to the high osts of establishing dense plantations as a major obstale to profitability. Wider spaing osts less (table 1), and the hange in spaing philosophy has also led to other advantages suh as use of onventional equipment for ulture and harvest. Fertilizer and speies.- In the past 2 or 3 years, the ost of fertilizer has inreased markedly in many regions. Fertilization (espeially with nitrogen) will undoubtedly be an integral part of highly intensive, short-rotation ulture systems. Therefore, we as sessed the impat of hanges in fertilizer osts on profitability and break-even yields for Alternative II. If land rent is $40 per are annually, yields of four ovendry tons per are per year on forestland (II-3) will net a profit if fertilizer osts per appliation are $36.80 per are or less. At urrent fertilizer pries, this amount would probably be insuffient if 150 to 200 pounds of N per are are applied and espeially if also potassium, phosphorus, or other elements are used. Among the prime andidates for short-rotation man agement are speies of the genus Alnus (alder), whih fix atmospheri nitrogen. Other fators being at least equal, differenes in fertilizer osts ould tip speies onsiderations in favor of alder. Impliations The foregoing analysis suggests that intensive ulture of short-rotation hardwood rops is eonomially feasible in some situations. Yields needed to break even under average management onditions and at hip pries of $35 per ovendry ton have been attained in trials in the South, Lake States, and Paifi Northwest. Pasture and other marginal agriultural land probably is available at lease rates of $50 per are or less in most areas. Many ompanies also have forestland that is suitable for onversion to short-rotation ulture. If fiber supply shortages and hip pries of $35 per ovendry ton are antiipated, ompanies an onsider short-rotation ulture as one means of meeting future wood needs. The illustrations and relationships and sensitivity analysis provided in this paper an be adapted to onsider other estimates of osts, prie, and yield. Although only a few of the osts and tradeoffs were examined here, the general indiation, based on wider analysis, suggests that rapid prodution of fiber by short-rotation ulture an be profitable. In view of projeted fiber shortages, the system merits serious onsideration and probably small-sale, operational testing by industrial land managers. 11 Literature Cited BOWERSOX, T. W., and W. W. WARD Eonomi analysis of a shortrotation fiber prodution system for hybrid poplar. J. For. 74: DEBELL, D. S Potential produtivity of dense, young thikets of alder. Crown Zellerbah Cent. Res., For. Res. Note 2, 7 p. Camas, Wash. DEBELL, D. S., and J. C. HARMS Identifiation of ost fators assoiated with intensive ulture of short-rotation forest rops. Iowa State J. Res. 50: DUTROW, G. F Eonomi impliations of silage syamore. USDA For. Serv. Res. Pap. S0-60, 9 p. DUTROW, G. F., and J. R. SAUCIER Eonomis of short-rotation syamore. USDA For. Serv. Res. Pap. S0-114, 16 p. EK, A. F., and D. H. DAWSON Atual and projeted yields of Populus "Tristis #1" under intensive ulture. Can. J. For. Res. 6: GoRDON, J. C The produtive poiential of woody plants. Iowa State J. Res. 49(3-pt. 2): HEILMAN, P. E., D. V. PEABODY, JR., D. S. DEBELL, and R. F. STRAND A test of lose-spaed, short-rotation ulture of blak ottonwood in the Paifi Northwest. Can. J. For. Res. 2: INMAN, R. E., D. J. SALO, and B. I. M;uRK Silviultural biomass forms. Mitre Teh. Rep Vol IV: Site-speifi prodution studies and ost analyses. 123 p. Mitre Corp., Washington, D.C. RosE, D. W Eonomi investigations of intensive silviultural systems. Iowa State J. Res. 50: RosE, D. W Cost of produing energy from wood in intensive ultures. J. Environ. Manage. 5: SMITH, J. H. G., and D. S. DEBELL Opportunities for short rotation ulture and omplete utilization of seven northwestern tree speies. For. Chron. 49: STEINBECK, K Short-rotation forestry in the United States: A literature review. Speeh at Annu. Meet. Am. Inst. Chern. Eng., New Orleans, La., Mar , USDA FoREST SERVICE The outlook for timber in the United States. For. Resour. Rep. 20, 367 p. Washington, D.C. THE AUTHORS- Dietmar W. Rose is assoiate professor, College of Forestry, University of Minnesota, St. Paul. Dean S. DeBell is prinipal silviulturist, Paifi Northwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, USDA Forest Servie, Olympia, Washington. November 1978/JouRNAL OF FoRESTRY/711

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