Capacity of the Louisiana Logging Industry

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1 Capacity of the Louisiana Logging Industry Shawn Baker August 27, 2014 Louisiana Forestry Association Annual Meeting Shreveport, LA

2 Background US Roundwood consumption fell by 27% from 2005 to 2010 (FAO 2012) Prior to the recession concerns about logging capacity were beginning to surface As the industry regains strength, questions about the condition of the logging industry are becoming prevalent We examined indicators of logging capacity and vitality

3 Weekly Production vs. % Clearcuts Logging businesses have increased avg. production Declining proportion of harvest from clearcuts Source: UGA Georgia Logger Survey, 2012

4 US South Total Annual Harvest 300 Total Harvested Volume (Million Tons) Pine Sawtimber Pine CNS Pine Pulp Hdwd Sawtimber Hdwd Pulp Source: UGA Wood Demand Report, 2013

5 Louisiana Logging Businesses Louisiana Logging Businesses No. of businesses declined by 38% since % reduction since 2006 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012

6 Louisiana Logging Businesses No. of Employees Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012

7 Louisiana Logging Businesses 250 No. of Logging Businesses No. of Employees: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012

8 Louisiana Logging Workforce Louisiana Logging Employment Total employment in logging declined 25% since % decline since start of recession Greater decline in businesses than employees

9 Firms Shift to Higher Production 100% % of Total Firms 80% 60% 40% 20% > 2500 T/wk T/wk < 1000 T/wk 0% Percentage of larger firms has doubled in past ten years Source: UGA Georgia Logger Survey, 2012

10 Total Volume Produced 2012 Total Tons 39% 10% 51% 20% of firms harvest half of the total tons > 2500 Tons Tons < 1000 Tons Source: UGA Georgia Logger Survey, 2012

11 Production per Man-Hour Continued improvement in production per employee No significant changes in technology Tons per Man-hour Source: UGA Georgia Logger Survey, 2012

12 Logging Capacity Estimate We know number of employees and an estimate of average production per employee Can make an estimate of total production capacity of the logging industry

13 Louisiana Logging Capacity Millions Estimated Capacity Actual Harvest Source: UGA Georgia Logger Survey, 2012 USDA Forest Service, 2014

14 Demand for Products Million Tons Pine Sawtimber Pine CNS Pine Pulpwood Hardwood sawtimber Hardwood palletwood Hardwood pulpwood Source: UGA Wood Demand Report, 2014

15 Demand is growing Sawtimber demand has been increasing as housing market strengthens Pellet mills are new market for pulpwood-sized material

16 Southern Capacity Declines

17 Sawmill Employment Louisiana Lumber Employment

18 Industry Health Production capacity losses are less than employment losses or the reduction in the number of logging firms Financial difficulties during the recession have weakened the remaining firms

19 Median Machine Age 10 8 Age (yrs.) Feller Buncher Skidder Loader Trucks Source: UGA Georgia Logger Survey, 2012

20 Revenue vs. Cost Trends PPI Logging PPI Logging Inflation (CPI) Diesel PPI Heavy Equip Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012 Energy Information Admin., 2012

21 Owner Age Source: UGA Georgia Logger Survey, 2012

22 Is Logging the Only Concern?

23 Possible Impacts of Limited Logging Capacity Landowners Many larger landowners have been working to secure logging capacity in the near term If stumpage prices increase, encouraging widespread timber sales, smaller landowners will likely be the first to notice the shortage

24 Possible Impacts of Limited Logging Capacity Consuming Mills At present, we estimate the excess or surge capacity is roughly the same as prerecession Rapid increases in wood demand will highlight the reduced total capacity New mills coming online or restarting will strain the ability to respond quickly to local wood shortages

25 Possible Impacts of Limited Logging Capacity Logging Contractors Some loggers have begun to reinvest in their businesses and replace machinery Increasing demand could increase the pressure for existing businesses to expand Better returns for the logging industry will encourage expansion and new entrants into the business Skilled labor will be a significant challenge to a rapid increase in capacity

26 Summary The industry is continuing to shift towards larger, multi-crew firms Logging capacity appears to have declined 11% since the beginning of the recession The extended downturn in the forest industry has resulted in reduced profits for firms with an increasingly aging ownership Rebuilding logging capacity will require significant new investment

27 Questions? Shawn Baker Research Professional Center for Forest Business University of Georgia

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