ForeSTClim Outline of proposed forest modelling work by Forest Research in Group C + D. Duncan Ray Bill Mason Bruce Nicoll Georgios Xenakis

Transcription

1 ForeSTClim Outline of proposed forest modelling work by Forest Research in Group C + D Duncan Ray Bill Mason Bruce Nicoll Georgios Xenakis

2 Topic areas Assessment of UKCIP08 probabilistic simulations for UK forestry Familiarisation with new data Prepare spatial data Impacts, risk and vulnerability models Develop drought and wind risk maps for scenarios - GB Develop species vulnerability maps for different scenarios - GB Craik forest case study area Identify and classification of goods and services (FMA) How effective is adaptation in reducing impact and lessening vulnerability to maintain goods and services Spatial models for case study Adjust species choice Implement low impact silvicultural systems on suitable sites Early and regular thinning on unsuitable LISS sites 2

3 Climate change projections UKCIP08 Probabilistic pdfs & cdfs Incorporation into existing models? Recalculate climate indices at 5km for ESC and ForestGALES scenarios 2009/2010 Compare other RCM outputs Assess impact of extreme events weather generator 3

4 Adapting forest management Economic and social impacts of CCF systems Species choice & climate change impacts (GB ESC) Change in species productivity resulting from adaptation Natural disturbance (Wind GB ForestGALES) Links to policy MCPFE, NATURA Link to project - eforwood 4

5 Craik Forest 5

6 Forest Management Alternatives (FMA s) revenue Wood Biomass Objective: optimize revenue from biomass production Ecology concerns play minor role Often introduced tree species, also GMO s Absolutely no mixture Fertilization, liming & application of chemicals Intensive machine operations Soil preparations Clear cuts All biomass removed Very short rotations Analysis of correlation Intensive even aged Objective: optimize revenue from (saw-) timber production Ecology concerns play minor role Small percentage of mixed species and natural processes possible, as long they do not reduce revenue significantly Tree species suitable for the site, breeds possible, no genetically modified plants Application of chemicals High percentage of biomass removed Complementary Short rotations Combined objective Objective: multiple objectives (e.g. revenue, biodiversity, water protection, soil protection, recreation, fire prevention, hunting ) Most variable FMA which allows for optimal adaptation to local situation. Tree species suitable for the site, breeds possible, no genetically modified plants No soil preparation, fertilization & application of chemical agents Medium percentage of biomass removed Medium rotations Forest Management Alternatives describe coherent series of operations and decisions in the forest. They can be ranked along a gradient of management intensity. The objective is to simulate the future forest structure as well as timber flow, ecological services, and social aspects under the assumption of different forest management alternatives in various regions throughout Europe for a period of 30 years. This allows for assessing the sustainable impact by a set of indicators. Close-to-nature forestry Objective: to produce wood by emulating natural processes and cycles Management has to enhance or conserve ecological functions of forest Low percentage of biomass removed Tree species selection according to potential natural vegetation, no breeds or genetically modified plants No soil preparation, fertilization, or application of chemical agents Final harvesting system mimics natural disturbances Contrary Forest nature reserve Objective: unmanaged forest to allow development of natural processes without human intervention No forest operations (including harvesting) Next to the biodiversity value (most important), some recreational and scientific value ecological or social services EFORWOOD Workpackage 2.1 Sustainable Forest Management Strategies; Partners: ALUFR, AFOCEL, BOKU, CTFC, KVL, FR, FVA, IBL, INRA, ISA, SLU, CEPF, CEPI Contact: WP 2.1 Institut of Forest Growth Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg Dr. Philipp Duncker philipp.duncker@iww.uni-freiburg.de

7 Links policy and projects Market benefit value Biomass production Intensive even-aged Combined objective Natural reserve Non market benefits 7

8 Ecological Site Classification - ESC ESC knowledge-based tree species suitability models and yield models 3PGN Hybrid modelling (process/empirical) yield and carbon accumulation Soil decomposition research for 3PGN Parameterisation of 3PGN for SS SP & EL Test models for other case study areas Add 3PGN modules to ESC in web-based application 8

9 Ecological Site Classification and outputs INPUTS ESC CLIMATIC FACTORS CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS Grid reference Climatic models Spatial interpolation Accumulated temperature Moisture deficit Empirical and Knowledge-based models Digital Terrain Continentality Wind exposure Soil type Lithology Humus form Plant species & % cover Site Classification Models Empirical and Knowledge-based LEGEND ESC SITE FACTORS Soil Moisture Regime Soil Nutrient Regime Definition of ESC Site Type Tree Species Suitability OUTPUTS Tree Species Yield Native Woodland Suitability REQUIRED DATA OPTIONAL DATA MODEL OUTPUT see - Pyatt et al (2001) ESC FC Bulletin 124

10 3-PGN Precipitation VPD Solar radiation Monthly Temperature Evapotranspiration Evaporation Soil Water Water Balance Interception Conductance LAI Physiological modifier Photosynthesis NPP Intercepted PAR GPP Respiration SLA Model elements Differential Flow State variable Influence Variable - Parameter Wood density DBH Root partitioning Stem partitioning Foliage partitioning Branch & Bark ratio Stem Volume Turnover rate pfs Root Stem Foliage Litterfall rate Stem Mass Stocking Volume growth Biomass partitionin Root turnover Mortality Litterfall Mortality Stem Mortality Young labile C Young refractory C Young labile N Young refractory N Humification Nitrification Old C Foliage Nitrogen concentration Old N Available Nitrogen Xenakis et al (in press) Fertility Rating Nitrogen Uptake Foliage growth Soil Carbon and Nitrogen 10

11 3PGN inputs and outputs ESC site factors soil quality 3-PGN Precipitation VPD Solar radiation Monthly Temperature Temp Rain Interception Intercepted Evapotranspiration LAI PAR SLA Soil Water GPP Physiological modifier Evaporation Conductance NPP Respiration Water Balance Photosynthesis Root Stem Foliage DBH partitioning partitioning partitioning Wood density pfs Branch & Stem Volume Root Stem Foliage Litterfall rate Turnover rate Bark ratio Root Mortality Biomass Litterfall turnover Volume growth partitionin Model elements Differential Flow State variable Influence Variable - Parameter Stem Mass Stocking Mortality Stem Mortality GPP/NPP Biomass Solar Rad Young labile Young Young labile Young C refractory C N refractory N Humification Nitrification Foliage Nitrogen concentration Old Old C N Available Nitrogen Soil C/N Fertility Rating Nitrogen Uptake Foliage growth Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Sitka spruce Scots pine European larch 11

12 ESC development for CC adaptation

13 ForestGALES Natural disturbance Climate change impacts Fluctuating water tables Extreme gusts Distribution of extreme events Management scenarios 13

14 Changes in seasonal rainfall Winter Shallow rooting Wind disturbance Risk of soil damage Summer Drought stress Risk of fire 14

15 Distribution of extreme winds Quine, C. & Gardiner, B. (2002) 15

16 Impact of adaptation on catchment Climate change scenarios GHG emissions scenarios Probability of extreme events Management scenarios Species choice Natural disturbance Goods and services Carbon Impacts of adaptation on catchment Water quantity e.g. flood risk Water quality e.g. soil erosion 16