Juan M. Pulhin, Ph.D. Professor College of Forestry and Natural Resources University of the Philippines Los Baños

Transcription

1 Revisiting the Socio-economic Impacts of the 2004 Typhoon Disaster in the Philippines: Implications to Environmental Governance and Climate Change Adaptation Juan M. Pulhin, Ph.D. Professor College of Forestry and Natural Resources University of the Philippines Los Baños 2015 APEC Typhoon Symposium (APTS) Lessons Learned from Disastrous Typhoons November 24-25, 2015 IESM Auditorium, UP Diliman, Quezon City Philippines

2 Outline of Presentation Background Socio-economic Impacts Perspectives on the Cause(s) of the Disaster Implications to Environmental Governance and Climate Change Adaptation

3 Background Philippines - one of the most disaster prone countries in the world. Ranked first in the 2015 Global Climate Risk Index among > 190 countries that suffered most from weather-related loss events in 2013 Ranked fifth among the most affected by climate disasters in , (with Honduras, Myanmar, Haiti and Nicaragua topping the list)

4 Background Between 14 November and 4 December 2004, 2 typhoons and 2 tropical depressions brought massive destructions particularly in the municipalities of Real, Infanta, and General Nakar in Quezon and in Dingalan in Aurora, Philippines (Gaillard et al. 2007) Unding hit Quezon between 14 and 21 November 2004 Tropical depression Violeta struck Luzon on 22 and 23 November Tropical depression Winnie hit the eastern portion of northern Quezon especially in General Nakar, Infanta on 28 November Typhoon Yoyong came on November 30 and devastated the Northeastern quarter of the country

5 Slide from: Cruz, 2005

6 Slide from: Cruz, 2005

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8 Location map of study areas SAN LUIS GEN. TINIO DINGALAN CONTESTED AREA SAN RAFAEL NORZAGARAY SAN JOSE GEN. NAKAR RODRIGUEZ CITY OF ANTIPOLO INFANTA TANAY REAL STA. MARIA N W E S Kilometers Legend Municipal boundary Dingalan watershed Tignoan watershed Agos watershed Water The Study Area

9 Table 8a. General profile of the study areas. CHARACTERISTICS QUEZON PROVINCE Real Infanta Gen. Nakar Estimated area of the 36,380 34, ,390 30,455 municipality (ha) No. of Barangays Population 30,684 39,722* 21,080 20,157** No. of Households 6,157 7,823 4,568 4,115 Population growth rate (%) No data urban %; rural % 1.8% Major sources of livelihood Agriculture and fisheries *1995 population based on NSO figures Agriculture, fisheries and trade Agriculture, fisheries, illegal logging AURORA PROVINCE Dingalan Agriculture, fisheries, cottage industries, illegal logging

10 Characteristics and impacts of the late-2004 typhoons and tropical depressions in E. Luzon, Philippines (Gaillard et al. 2007) Characteristics Uding Violeta Winnie Yoyong International name Muifa Merbok Winnie Nanmadol Maximum winds kph 55 kph 55 kph kph Date of impact on Luzon Island Nov Nov Nov 2004 People killed People injured Nov 4 Dec 2004 People missing Damage to agriculture Damage to infra USD 7,236,857 USD 6,624,607 USD 3,746,857 USD 9,199,375 USD 46,595,892 USD 708,929 USD 2,731,357 USD 13,553,161

11 Indicative general impacts of floods/landslides on the family/households, FGD participants in Quezon and Aurora Impacts Damaged houses/washed out/buried Missing/dead family members Created trauma every time it rains Sickness and diseases Children s education temporarily stopped Damages to property Hunger Quezon Aurora Real Infanta General Nakar Dingalan 30%% Source: FDC, 2005

12 Effects of floods/landslides on the livelihoods of people in Quezon and Aurora Loss of livelihoods Farms/rice fields buried in mud/washed out Loss of livestock Crops and planting stocks were destroyed Damaged fishing boats/nets Difficulty in fishing due to floating logs/trees Decrease in fish catch, shrimps and shells due to erosion of riverbanks People shifted to charcoal-making as alternative livelihood Source: FDC, 2005

13 Logs deposited by floodwaters on the seashore of Real (photograph by J.-C. Gaillard, 22 January 2005).

14 2004 Floods & Landslides in Aurora and Quezon

15 Perspectives on the causes of the disaster The media and anti-logging advocates immediately blamed the calamity to logging activities which was claimed to be rampant in the area Some groups including technical people are of the opinion that the cause was more of natural brought about by exceptionally high rainfall and the geomorphological characteristics of the soil and rock strata in the site.

16 Table 7. Number and area of IFMAs and ITPLAs in Aurora province Year Grand Total IFMA ITPLA for Conversion to No Area Total I II IFMA. (ha) No. Area No Area No Area No. Area (ha) (ha). (ha). (ha) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,831 Source: Phil. Forestry Statistics

17 Key Results of the Study: Forest Use Year of Number of Chainsaws Registered Acquisition Real Infanta Gen. Nakar Dingalan Total Not indicated TOTAL Sources: DENR Region 4A, CENRO Real, Quezon and CENRO Dingalan, Aurora

18 Key Results of the Study: Land Use/Cover 1988 Land use and land cover of Tignoan and Agos Watershed 2003 Land use/land cover of Tignoan and Agos Watershed L E G E N D a g r i c u l t u r e c o c o n u t p l a n t a t i o n f i s h p o n d f o r e s t g r a s s l a n d m a n g r o v e s c a r s Source: Cruz, 2005

19 Daily rainfall for Infanta and neighboring meteorological stations between 24 November and 4 December 2004 (Gaillard et al. 2007)

20 A more holistic perspective on the typhoon disaster Interaction of factors behind the late 2004 typhoon disaster in Eastern Luzon (Gilliard et al. 2007)

21 Implications to Environmental Governance and CCA

22 1. Need for a more comprehensive framework for analysing and addressing risks and disasters IPCC- AR5 framework on solution space as a take-off point Source: IPCC WG2-SPM, 2014

23 2. Implementing integrated approach to reducing people s vulnerability conducting comprehensive vulnerability/risk assessments as basis for integrated planning enhancing capability to observe, monitor and forecast floods, landslides and other climate related disasters setting in place early warning systems elevating awareness among vulnerable sectors

24 2. Implementing integrated approach to reducing people s vulnerability improving land use zoning and implementation by mainstreaming climate change and DRR improving equitable access to areas suitable for settlement and related purposes implementing sustainable livelihood addressing structural barriers that contributes to vulnerability like corruption, unmanaged population, and landlessness.

25 3. Promoting sustainability of watershed resources particularly forests a. promoting viability of local economy development of viable forest and non-forest based industry b. promoting coordinated upland-lowland dev t integrated area development using the watershed as a planning unit genuine comprehensive land use planning

26 3. Promoting sustainability of watershed resources c. improving policy environment to motivate sustainable use and management of forests by communities, LGUs, private sector, other responsible stewards push for the adoption of sustainable forest management law that integrates climate change and DRR complete forest boundary delineation prevent reactive policies iron out inconsistencies among policies

27 3. Promoting sustainability of watershed resources d. Rationalizing wood industry Creation of forest-based industry board Review and improve process of issuing permits to own and operate chainsaws and sawmills Policy reform to improve climate for growth of investment on sustainable forest-based industry

28 4. Institutionalizing science-based policy formulation and implementation a. Increase investment in research b. Revitalize monitoring of key watersheds c. Strengthen linkage between research and policy sectors

29 Thank You Very Much for Listening!