TRENDS IN INDUSTRIAL FOREST PLANTATIONS IN AFRICA
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1 TRENDS IN INDUSTRIAL FOREST PLANTATIONS IN AFRICA Seminar on Global forest tenure: Challenges to forest industry competitiveness and responsibility Petri Lehtonen, Senior Partner, Indufor Oy 24 March 2015
2 Indufor and Timberland Investments Indufor was founded in 1980 Independent staff owned Advisory services in forest and forest industry development Private and public sector clients Located in Helsinki, Finland; Auckland New Zealand; and Melbourne, Australia 2
3 Indufor in Africa Forest industry assistance Strategic plans Plantation assessments Company valuations High level reviews of government strategies Development of private forestry Recent projects in: Angola Cameroon Congo, Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Liberia Mozambique South Africa Tanzania Uganda Zambia 3
4 Contents 1. Why to Invest in Africa? 2. Lessons Learned from the Past 3. Development of Forest Plantations 4. Risks and Returns 5. Forest Investments and Poor 6. Conclusions 4
5 Rationale to Establish Plantations in Africa Demand of forest products fuel wood and other woody biomass for energy, construction materials, pulp wood, other fibre products and ecosystem services is inevitably growing due to local, regional and global drivers. There are potential and suitable areas for forest plantations that do not threaten food security, biodiversity or availability of water. 5
6 Is it Possible to Mitigate the Risks and Achieve the Expected Returns? When forest plantations are developed according to the best technical, social and environmental practises with financial discipline Investments can be profitable allowing value added development of downstream processing Local stakeholders benefit significantly - addressing the key risks related to social issues Or is it so? Are the risks still too high for financial investors? 6
7 Africa has significant area and huge population working age population will be the highest in the world in few decades 7
8 Economic growth is significant in Africa and will likely continue to be so Mature markets GDP Growth (%/a) USA 2.2 Germany, France 2.1 France 2.1 Australia GDP Growth (%/a) Emerging markets Ethiopia 8.1 Mozambique 7.7 Tanzania 7.2 Ghana 7.0 Nigeria 6.8 8
9 There are realistic opportunities to develop plantations and plantation wood based industries in several African countries South Africa (I) has already a well established plantation wood based forest industry (II) countries with tropical hardwoods (III) developing plantation countries (IV) potential plantation countries (II) (IV) (III) (I) 9
10 Contents 1. Why to Invest in Africa? 2. Lessons Learned from the Past 3. Foreseen Development of Forest Plantations 4. Risks and Returns 5. Forest Investments and Poor 6. Conclusions 10
11 Africa has a long history of forest plantations with failures and successes Total area 5 million ha South Africa Ethiopia Madagascar Ghana Malawi Kenya Tanzania Angola Zimbabwe Swaziland Zambia Congo Mozambique Uganda 1000 ha Ghana Angola Tanzania South Africa Madagascar Mozambique 11
12 Failures Poor management Lack of logistics, processing and markets Governments have failed to manage their own plantations many old plantations have deteriorated. Technical errors in the early stages of plantation development. Location selection has not taken into account cost effective infrastructure and access to markets Neglect of environmental considerations Plantations have been established without consideration of biodiversity conservation and impacts to hydrology Sometimes selected species and regimes have failed Neglect of social aspects Related mainly to land tenure and community involvement Leasehold land - unclear land tenure top down planning Neglect of the rights of local people 12
13 Successes Outsourcing management Governments have recently outsourced management of forest plantation to third parties under lease arrangements and productivity has increased Company community partnerships Out grower's / tree farming schemes with varying experiences have involved local communities and private tree growers into forest value chains Tree Growers Associations: organize small- and medium scale tree growers Professional planning and state-of-the-art technologies Serious plantation developers apply state-of-the-art planning of the new plantations aiming at high international standards that comply with technical, social & environmental criteria 13
14 Contents 1. Why to Invest in Africa? 2. Lessons Learned from the Past 3. Foreseen Development of Forest Plantations 4. Risks and Returns 5. Forest Investments and Poor 6. Conclusions 14
15 Plantation Area Development in Africa, Forecast Million ha The figures are highly speculative based on Indufor s estimates (2012) South Africa 15
16 Plantation wood will not satisfy the additional demand of African wood even in the optimistic scenario a Plantation investments and over all development will be fundamental a or deforestation will inevitably continue 300 Million m³ Supply of plantation wood Demand of industrial roundwood
17 Contents 1. Why to Invest in Africa? 2. Lessons Learned from the Past 3. Development of Forest Plantations 4. Risks and Returns 5. Forest Investments and Poor 6. Conclusions 17
18 Return Benchmarks in Tanzania, Mozambique, and South Africa 18% Financial Internal Rate of Return (real, ) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Tanzania Teak Tanzania Eucalyptus Mozambique Eucalyptus South Africa Eucalyptus South Africa Pine 18
19 Timberland Returns and Market Efficiency SECTION Return/ Risk 15 % Mozambique, Tanzania, Ghana, Liberia, Angola Malaysia, Indonesia, (China) 10% N/NE Brazil, Colombia, Paraguay S/SE Brazil, Uruguay, Chile, South Africa Baltic countries US, Australia, NZ, Nordic countries, UK 3 % Market Efficiency (Information) Emerging markets: Opportunities for higher returns are present but coupled with limited market information as well as country risks Mature markets: Various transactions have allowed for nearly perfect information and opportunities for exceptional returns have diminished. Return is largely determined by the rate of biological growth. 19
20 Contents 1. Why to Invest in Africa? 2. Lessons Learned from the Past 3. Development of Forest Plantations 4. Risks and Returns 5. Forest Investments and Poor 6. Conclusions 20
21 Elements in Intensive Plantation Forestry Requires good land limited availability, competitive uses capital intensive production Conficts on land tenure rights common - customary, traditional uses, land titles - people and authorities have conflicting interpretations - compensations for restricted use Concerns on conversion of native forests for plantations - demand increases - social and environmental impacts Complex benefit sharing - Partnerships with local tree growers - Fair compensation to all affected parties Environmental impacts - water, soil, biodiversity - risk for damages - risk for pollution - availability of forest products Human resources - availability of skilled staff - social investments - work safety, payments Direct socio-economic implications 21
22 Contents 1. Why to Invest in Africa? 2. Lessons Learned from the Past 3. Development of Forest Plantations 4. Risks and Returns 5. Forest Investments and Poor 6. Conclusions 22
23 Conclusions (1) Growing African economies as well as global fibre shortage megatrend supports investments in forest plantations and development of wood processing industries Forest plantations are seen as an important vehicle to improve living standards and reduce poverty when established together with different partners: communities, smallholders and other local entities Only few strategic and financial investors have entered Africa It is expected that the operating environments are improving Critical mass of plantations and value added processing is gradually being developed Infrastructure is improving 23
24 Conclusions (2) The key question is to manage and mitigate the unique risks Building up right partnerships particularly with local partners Developing business and forest management skills at local level Appropriate technology, scale and logistics in place Diverse market channels access to market Management of social dimension involvement and commitment of the local stakeholders to the forest value chain is a prerequisite to get even started Reported returns vary, however, there is proof of good performance 24
25 Contact us Indufor Oy, Töölönkatu 11 A FI Helsinki, Finland Tel petri.lehtonen@indufor.fi Web 25 Copyright 2014 Indufor Oy
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