IMPACT ASSESSMENT DUE TO GLOBAL CHANGE IN A COLOMBIAN ANDEAN BASIN

Transcription

1 IMPACT ASSESSMENT DUE TO GLOBAL CHANGE IN A COLOMBIAN ANDEAN BASIN Ocampo O.L. 1-2, Vélez J.J. 1 and Londoño A 1 1 Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales. Instituto Estudios Ambientales IDEA. 2 Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. Centro de Estudios Ambientales CEA.

2 IMPACT ASSESSMENT DUE TO GLOBAL CHANGE IN COLOMBIAN ANDEAN BASINS INTRODUCTION METHODS RESULTS CONCLUSIONS (Ocampo O.L., Vélez J.J. and Londoño A., 2013)

3 National Natural Park Los Nevados Caldas, Colombia INTRODUCTION (Ocampo O.L., Vélez J.J. and Londoño A., 2013)

4 The severity of impact due to global change depends not only on the climate extremes but also on exposure and vulnerability; which are influenced by different factors, including: Climate Change, Natural Climate Variability, Socioeconomic Development Ecosystem Sensitivity. (IPCC, 2007; 2012) Manizales, Caldas, Colombia (La Patria, 2011)

5 Both climatic variability and long-term climate change impacts are particularly severe in developing countries, as Colombia. Colombian Andean Basins are particularly vulnerable and therefore, local studies are required to estimate their vulnerability. Chinchina River Basin, Caldas, Colombia

6 National Natural Park Los Nevados Caldas, Colombia METHODS (Ocampo O.L., Vélez J.J. and Londoño A., 2013)

7 The case study includes a River Basin located at Caldas department, in the Colombian Andes; where high temporal and spatial variability in precipitation, temperature, topography, vegetation cover, land use, land cover, soil type, geology and geomorphology are observed.

8 Case study The Chinchina River Basin (1050 km 2 ) is located on the western slopes at the central range in the Andes at the South central region of Caldas, Colombia, South America.

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11 The water resources vulnerability has been evaluated considering the Basin susceptibility to preserve and maintain the current hydrological regimen to possible global changes. Chinchina River Basin, Caldas, Colombia

12 Climatic data sources IDEAM: Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies of Colombia, CENICAFE: National Coffee Research Center CHEC: Caldas Hydroelectric

13 LONG-TERM MEAN RIVER FLOWS The general procedure for estimating global change hydrological impacts was conducted in the following stages: 1- Model calibration TETIS model (Francés F, Vélez J.I and Vélez J.J., 2007) Evapotranspiration Soil tank Precipitation 2- Model validation 3- Simulation for Simulation for [2020], according to climate change scenarios. Groundwater tank Flow separation Run off Base flow 5- Estimating hydrological indexes Abcd model (Thomas,1981) channel

14 Calibration and Validation procedures Split sample (Singh et al, 2004): Percent bias (PBIAS) Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) PBIAS NSE RSR Performance Rating PBIAS < ±10 0,75 < NSE < 1, < RSR < 0.50 Very Good ±10 < PBIAS < ±15 0,65 < NSE < 0, < RSR < 0.60 Good ±15 < PBIAS < ±25 0,50 < NSE < 0, < RSR < 0.70 Satisfactory PBIAS > ±25 NSE < 0,50 RSR > 0.70 Unsatisfactory (Moriasi et al, 2007)

15 Climate Change Scenarios IPCC-III Period: [2020] Scenarios A2 and B2 GCM: - HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) - CSIRO-Mk2 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) - CCCMA (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) Statistical downscaling by the delta method (Villegas & Jarvis, 2010)

16 The potential impact assessment It was performed using the following hydrological indexes: Retention and water regulation capacity Aridity index Water use Quality index Per capita water availability Vulnerability index Chinchina River Basin, Caldas, Colombia Page 16

17 Retention and water regulation index (IRH) IRH Qualitative assessment >0,85 Very High 0,75-0,85 High 0,65-0,75 Moderate 0,50-0,65 Low <0,5 Very Low Aridity Index (I aridez ) I aridez Qualitative assessment < 0,15 High excedences 0,15-0,19 Excedences 0,20 0,29 Moderate and Excedences 0,30 0,39 Moderate 0,40 0,49 Low 0,50-0,59 Deficit >0,60 High deficit (IDEAM, 2010)

18 Relative water stress index (RWSI) RWSI Qualitative assessment > 0,4 high water stress 0,2 0,4 moderate water stress 0,10-0,2 low water stress <0,1 no water stress Water use index or water scarcity index I ua Qualitative assessment >50% Very High 20 50% High 10-20% Moderate 1-10% Low < 1% Very Low (IDEAM, 2010; UNESCO, 2009)

19 Per capita water availability Per capita water Category Observations availabity m 3 /per-year >1700 Water availability The threshold above which water shortage occurs only irregularly or locally Water stress Water stress appears regularly Water scarcity Water scarcity is a limitation to economic development and human health and well-being < 500 High water scarcity Water availability is a main constraint to life (Falkenmark, 1999, IDEAM, 2010; UNESCO, 2009)

20 Water pollution Index Category Qualitative Assessment PollutantLoad (Ton/year)/Mm 3 BOD COD-BOD TSS TN TP 1 Low < 0,13 < 0,13 < 0,3 < 0,02 < 0,004 2 Moderate 0,14 0,39 0,14 0,35 0,40 0,70 0,03 0,05 0,005 0,013 3 Medium 0,40 1,20 0,36 1,16 0,80 1,80 0,06-0,13 0,014-0,035 4 High 1,21-4,85 1,17-6,77 1,90-7,60 0,14-0,55 0,036-0, Very High >4,86 >6,78 >7,70 >0,56 >0,135 (IDEAM, 2010)

21 Vulnerability Index Retention and water regulation index (IRH) Water use index (IUA) Categories Vulnerability Index IV IRH- High IRH- Moderate IRH- Low IRH- Very Low IUA Very High Medium High High Very High IUA - High Medium High High Very High IUA- Moderate Medium Medium High High IUA- Low Low Low Medium Medium IUA Very Low Very Low Low Medium Medium (IDEAM, 2010)

22 Chinchina River Basin, Caldas, Colombia RESULTS (Ocampo O.L., Vélez J.J. and Londoño A., 2013)

23 OBSERVED STREAM FLOW Time series of river flows showed positive and negative trends El Retiro-m 3 /s Sancancio-m 3 /s Montevideo-m 3 /s Chupaderos-m 3 /s

24 Stream Flow m 3 /s Montevideo Station OBSERVED STREAM FLOW JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 50 El Retiro Station Stream Flow m 3 /s JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

25 HYDROLOGICAL MODELING PBIAS, % NSE 10% 6% 2% -2% -6% -10% Percent bias-pbias Tetis model abcd model 4.9% 5.7% -0.16% -2.0% -6.8% -9% Calibration Validation Simulation Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency-nse Calibration Validation Simulation RSR RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) Calibration Here comes your footer Validation Simulation

26 HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION PPT Simulated Tetis Observed flow Simulated abcd Jan-81 Feb-82 Mar-83 Apr-84 May-85 Jun-86 Jul-87 Aug-88 Sep-89 Oct-90 Nov-91 Dec-92 Jan-94 Feb-95 Mar-96 Apr-97 May-98 Jun-99 Jul-00 Aug-01 Sep-02 Oct-03 Nov-04 Dec-05 Jan-07 Feb-08 Mar-09 River Flow m 3 /s 160 Simulated Tetis Observed flow Simulated abcd River Flow (m 3 /s) Here 20 comes your footer

27 Hydrological indicators Chinchina River Basin Aridity Index Retention and water regulation index Total water supply Mm 3 /year Environmental Flow Mm 3 /year Available water supply Mm 3 /year HYDROLOGICAL INDEXES Observed Flow Medium Flow Dry Years Wet Years Value Category Value Value Category Category 0.36 Very Low 838±15 408± ± WaterDemand Mm3/year Per capita water availability m 3 / 1554 Water 757 Scarcity 3570 Excess year stress Relative water stress index (RWSI) 0.19 Moderate 1 High water 0.05 No water stress stress WaterUse Index 19 Moderate 100 Very High 5 Low Potential alteration water Very High Very High Very High quality Water vulnerability index High Very High Medium

28 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IPCCIII- PRECIPITATION % Precipitation Anomalies % 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% HADCHM3_A2 CSIRO_A2 CCMA_A2 HADCHM3_B2 CSIRO_B2 CCMA_B2-20% Altitude

29 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IPCCIII- TEMPERATURE Temperature Anomalies C Cambio Climático Altitude m HADCHM3_A2 CSIRO_A2 CCMA_A2 HADCHM3_B2 CSIRO_B2 CCMA_B2

30 HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION TETIS MODEL Flow m 3 /s Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec HADCHM3_A2 CSIRO_A2 CCMA_A2 Flow m 3 /s Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec HADCHM3_B2 CSIRO_B2 CCMA_B2

31 HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION TETIS MODEL 0% -5% -10% -1% -4% -7% -15% -13% -12% -20% -13% Flow Anomalies % HADCHM3_A2 CSIRO_A2 CCMA_A2 HADCHM3_B2 CSIRO_B2 CCMA_B2

32 HYDROLOGICAL INDEXES Simulated Flow Tetis Model Hydrological indicators Chinchina River Basin HADCHM3_A2 Value Category Value Category Total water supply 805±11 599±38 Mm 3 /year Environmental Flow 373 Mm 3 /year Available water supply ,6 Mm 3 /year Water Demand Mm 3 /year Per capita water availability 1554 Water 988 Scarcity m 3 / year stress Relative water stress index (RWSI) 0.19 Moderate 0.76 high water stress Water Use Index 19 Moderate 76 Very High Potential alteration water Very Very High quality High Water vulnerability index High Very High

33 Manizales, Caldas, Colombia CONCLUSIONS (Ocampo O.L., Vélez J.J. and Londoño A., 2013)

34 Conclusions The Andean mountain river basins are vulnerable to global change; however, the potential water availability reduction and the increasing demand would accentuate the water resources vulnerability. Therefore, effective adaptation measures are required to reduce effects and impacts of global change. It is necessary to consider the possible effects of global change and climate variability on current decisions, which could have a lasting impact on vulnerability and the ease of the adaptation process to climate changes as they occur.

35 Acknowledgements The authors want to thank IDEA, IDEAM, CORPOCALDAS and CHEC for providing hydro-climatic data. The support of the Faculty of Engineering, the Program Capacity building of processing and analysis of environmental information and the Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes in the Americas - VACEA Project were also significant.

36 IMPACT ASSESSMENT DUE TO GLOBAL CHANGE IN COLOMBIAN ANDEAN BASINS Ocampo O.L. 1-2, Vélez J.J. 1 and Londoño A 1 1 Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales. Instituto Estudios Ambientales IDEA. 2 Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. Centro de Estudios Ambientales CEA.