technical report no. 24 Analysis of Wood Product Accounting Options for the National Carbon Accounting System

Transcription

1 national carbon accounting system technical report no. 24 Analysis of Wood Product Accounting Options for the National Carbon Accounting System Jaakko Pöyry Consulting The lead Commonwealth agency on greenhouse matters

2 The National Carbon Accounting System: Supports Australia's position in the international development of policy and guidelines on sinks activity and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation from land based systems. Reduces the scientific uncertainties that surround estimates of land based greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in the Australian context. Provides monitoring capabilities for existing land based emissions and sinks, and scenario development and modelling capabilities that support greenhouse gas mitigation and the sinks development agenda through to 2012 and beyond. Provides the scientific and technical basis for international negotiations and promotes Australia's national interests in international fora. For additional copies of this report phone

3 ANALYSIS OF WOOD PRODUCT ACCOUNTING OPTIONS FOR THE NATIONAL CARBON ACCOUNTING SYSTEM Jaakko Pöyry Consulting National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report No. 24 September 2000 The Australian Greenhouse Office is the lead Commonwealth agency on greenhouse matters.

4 This report is issued by Jaakko Pöyry Consulting (Asia-Pacific) Pty Ltd to the Australian Greenhouse Office for their own use. No responsibility is accepted for any other use. The report contains the opinion of Jaakko Pöyry Consulting (Asia-Pacific) Pty Ltd as to the current knowledge and status of various carbon accounting options for wood products. Nothing in the report is, or should be relied upon as, a promise by Jaakko Pöyry Consulting (Asia-Pacific) Pty Ltd as to the future growth, yields, costs or returns of the forests and/or forest products. Actual results may be different from the opinion contained in this report, as anticipated events may not occur as expected and the variation may be significant. Jaakko Pöyry Consulting (Asia-Pacific) Pty Ltd has no responsibility to update this report for events and circumstances occurring after the date of this report. JAAKKO PÖYRY CONSULTING (ASIA-PACIFIC) PTY LTD Printed in Australia for the Australian Greenhouse Office Commonwealth of Australia 2000 This work is copyright. It may be reproduced in whole or part for study or training purposes subject to the inclusion of an acknowledgement of the source and no commercial usage or sale results. Reproduction for purposes other than those listed above requires the written permission of the Communications Team, Australian Greenhouse Office. Requests and inquires concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the Communications Team, Australian Greenhouse Office, GPO Box 621, CANBERRA ACT For additional copies of this document please contact National Mailing and Marketing. Telephone: Facsimile: (02) nmm@nationalmailing.com.au For further information please contact the National Carbon Accounting System at Neither the Commonwealth nor the Consultants responsible for undertaking this project accepts liability for the accuracy of or inferences from the material contained in this publication, or for any action as a result of any person s or group s interpretations, deductions, conclusions or actions in reliance on this material. September 2000 Environment Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication Analysis of wood product accounting options for the National Carbon Accounting System / Jaakko Pöyry. p. cm. (National Carbon Accounting System technical report; no. 24) Bibliography: ISSN: Wood products-carbon content-australia-measurement. I. Jaakko Pöyry Consulting (Asia-Pacific). II. Australian Greenhouse Office. III. Series dc21 ii Australian Greenhouse Office

5 SUMMARY The treatment of carbon stored in wood products for national carbon accounting purposes is an important carbon accounting issue. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Default Approach assumes that all carbon in trees is emitted at the time trees are harvested. In practice, a proportion of the harvest is removed and stored in a range of wood products. For many wood products, this carbon may be stored for a long period. A shift towards the increased use of wood products, particularly those with a long decay period, is one method of increasing the size of the pool of sequestered carbon. The alternative strategy for sequestration, growing forests only to lock up carbon in the biomass, misses the opportunity to store carbon in wood products while new carbon is sequestered into biomass. Jaakko Pöyry Consulting was engaged by the Australian Greenhouse Office to look at the size of the pools in wood products and to consider Australia s position under various wood product accounting approaches. The IPCC has proposed a number of accounting approaches that recognise carbon stored in wood products as an alternative to the IPCC Default. The two considered feasible by Jaakko Pöyry Consulting are the Production Approach and the Stock-Change Approach; the Atmospheric Flow Approach is considered logical but impractical. Under the Production Approach, all the carbon in wood produced by a country is regarded as belonging to that country as it decays. This creates difficulties in tracking the fate of exported wood products and places emissions from wood products on a different basis to other similar products such as coal where emissions are generated when the product is used (e.g. coal is burnt in an electricity generation plant). The Stock-Change Approach, on the other hand, adopts the same principles as those for fossil fuel; emissions are deemed to occur in the country where the emission occurs rather than in the country where the wood was produced (or the coal mined). Tracking the decay of wood products from all sources is still difficult but less so than for exported products. Jaakko Pöyry Consulting undertook a detailed analysis of wood products in 1999 based on 1998 data (see National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report No gov.au/ncas/files/pdfs/tech08.pdf). Assumptions were made on the size of the initial pools but these assumptions were difficult to make with any confidence. The AGO subsequently extended the work to include all production data back to 1944 when national wood production statistics were first collected. This work has provided a much firmer basis for estimation of initial carbon pools in wood products. Based on these analyses the impact of the various accounting methodologies has been assessed. The results show the advantages to Australia of adopting approaches other than the IPCC Default. Of the two approaches considered seriously, the Stock-Change Approach provided the best outcome both in terms of recognising the pool of stored carbon and the fact that much of Australia s wood products are exported. The final component of the project has been to estimate the size of the Kyoto forest estate. Preliminary estimates have been made based on an analysis of National Plantation Inventory (NPI) data; this showed that around 24% of the existing plantation estate would be Kyoto compliant under current rules. It is not considered practicable at this point to attempt to split the forest products pools to accurately determine the fraction that is Kyoto compliant. This aspect may need to be given further attention if the carbon accounting methodologies proposed are to be used for Kyoto compliant forests. National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report iii

6 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. Summary iii 1. Introduction Brief Aim Approach Background to Accounting Approaches The IPCC Default Approach Production Approach Stock-Change Approach Atmospheric Flow Approach 6 2. Log Flow and Wood Flow from Processing Carbon Pool Categories Sawmilling Preservative Treatment Plywood Particleboard and Medium Density Fibreboard (MDF) Pulp and Paper Products Export Logs Wood Flow and the Carbon Model 7 3. Life Span of Wood Products Life Span Pools Assumed for the Carbon Model Very short-term products Pool Short-term products Pool Medium-term products Pool Long-term products Pool Very long-term products Pool Pool of Wood Products in Service 9 5. Output from the Carbon Model IPCC Default Methodology Stock-Change Approach Production Approach Overall Comparison of Accounting Methodologies Defining the Kyoto forest estate Method Data Limitations Results 18 Glossary 20 Appendix 1: National Carbon Accounting Model for Wood Products in Australia 21 iv Australian Greenhouse Office

7 LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1 Log removals in Australia for 1997/98 in thousands of m 3 6 Table 4-1 Estimated size of carbon pools in 1998 used for calculation of Production and Stock-Change Approaches to carbon accounting 9 Table 4-2 Revised estimates of size of carbon pools in 1998 based on historical production data used for calculation of Production and Stock-Change Approaches to carbon accounting 10 Table 5-1 Changes in the wood products pool and emissions for the revised model in Table 6-1 First rotation and land use assumptions 19 Table 6-2 Australia s Kyoto forest estate by state 19 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1 Flow of carbon under the IPCC Default Approach 3 Figure 1-2 Flow of carbon through wood products pools under the Production Approach 4 Figure 1-3 Flow of carbon through wood products pools under the Stock-Change Approach 5 Figure 5-1 Original indicative carbon emissions from forest harvesting using the IPCC Default Approach 11 Figure 5-2 Revised indicative emissions from forest harvesting using the IPCC Default Approach 11 Figure 5-3 Original indicative carbon stocks in Australia using the Stock-Change Approach 12 Figure 5-4 Revised indicative carbon stocks in Australia using the Stock-Change Approach 12 Figure 5-5 Original change in carbon stocks under the Stock-Change Approach 13 Figure 5-6 Revised change in carbon stocks under the Stock-Change Approach 14 Figure 5-7 Original indicative carbon stocks in Australia using the Production Approach 14 Figure 5-8 Revised indicative carbon stocks in Australia using the Production Approach 15 Figure 5-9 Original change in carbon stocks under the Production Approach 15 Figure 5-10 Revised change in carbon stocks under the Production Approach 16 Figure 5-11 Comparison of emissions from wood products using the three accounting methodologies 16 Figure 6-1 Decision tree for defining Kyoto forest estate 18 National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report v

8 vi Australian Greenhouse Office

9 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 BRIEF The revised 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Inventories describe the current internationally accepted methodology for accounting for greenhouse gas emissions. For emissions associated with carbon in wood products, the Guidelines specify that, for wood traded internationally, emissions must be accounted for in the country where the timber is grown. This is different to the treatment of fossil fuels such as coal or oil, where the importing country, not the exporter, accounts for the emissions associated with the burning of these fuels. Under the default methodology, carbon emissions are accounted for at the time of harvest. The Guidelines do, however, allow for delays in emissions associated with various decay rates of wood products if a country has adequate data on which to base such an assessment. There has been some international interest in reviewing the methodology used for wood products accounting and, in 1998, the IPCC held a workshop to consider different accounting approaches. Adopting different approaches to the accounting may have significant implications for countries such as Australia and New Zealand that trade extensively in wood products. 1.2 AIM Jaakko Pöyry Consulting prepared a report for the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO) in October 1999 titled Usage and Life Cycle of Wood Products (see National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report No ncas/files/pdfs/tech08.pdf), which examined the fate of carbon in wood products in Australia. The study considered all forest products and included both exports and imports. In addition, the study initiated an analysis of the carbon accounting methodologies described above by developing and using a Jaakko Pöyry Consulting-developed model: the National Carbon Accounting Model for Wood Products in Australia, or as used in this report, the Carbon Model. A key limitation of the Carbon Model involved the assumptions surrounding the size and components of the pool of carbon in wood products in service at the beginning of the Model s simulation period. To help overcome this limitation, historical data from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) Forest Products Statistics series were used to populate the model and provide a more realistic estimate of the initial wood products carbon pool. Outputs from the model using the revised data series are presented together with the results shown in the Usage and Life Cycle of Wood Products report for comparison purposes. This report structures the Usage and Life Cycle of Wood Products report and subsequent work into a simple format and summarises the implications for Australia of applying the IPCC default; the production; and the Stock-Change Approaches to accounting for carbon in harvested wood and wood products. 1.3 APPROACH To achieve the aim of this report, the data used for the Usage and Life Cycle of Wood Products report was revised and simplified and the key findings were presented in simple terms including graphs and tables. Future projections relate to 1998 for future production of wood products and to the period 1944 to 1998 for existing pools. Initially, a review was undertaken of work already undertaken by Jaakko Pöyry Consulting on behalf of the AGO. Log flow and wood flow from processing were estimated (Section 2). Next, the life span of wood products was estimated (Section 3). Then the pool of wood products in service was estimated (Section 4). This work was then supplemented by the incorporation of historical Forest Products Statistics data from ABARE to populate the Carbon Model. National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report 1

10 Indicative output from the Carbon Model incorporating the revised estimates of the pool of wood products in service is presented in Section 5. Defining Australia s Kyoto forest was then addressed and the estimated area of Kyoto forest estate was calculated in Section 6. The implications for incorporation of Kyoto forest data into the Carbon Model are discussed. 1.4 BACKGROUND TO ACCOUNTING APPROACHES The four accounting approaches for carbon emissions from timber harvesting and wood products presented at the 1988 IPCC meeting are described below The IPCC Default Approach The IPCC Default Approach accounts for all wood products as an emission at harvest and no decay rates apply. Hence, countries that export wood and wood products will ultimately be responsible for the emitted carbon. Under this methodology, there is no wood products carbon pool. This is the most simple of the approaches to apply. The IPCC Default Approach is illustrated in Figure Production Approach The Production Approach accounts for all wood products derived from wood grown in Australia, regardless of the country in which the product finally decays. This requires an understanding of the destination of exported raw material and wood products, as well as the final products that they are converted into. Additionally, this approach requires division of all wood products within Australia into two categories: wood grown in Australia; and wood grown outside Australia. Difficulties arise where similar products exported from Australia are used for different end uses and affected by different environments at their final destination. Decay rates for each country must be obtained to determine the rate at which carbon is released into the atmosphere under local conditions. An additional complication is the need to track wood products re-imported to Australia (e.g. Australian woodchips exported to Japan, converted to paper and subsequently imported by Australia). The Production Approach places the responsibility on Australia for monitoring changes in the wood products pool of all countries that Australian wood is exported to. This can only be achieved through the cooperation and provision of data by each trading partner. For some countries (e.g. Non-Annex I countries) this may be difficult. The flow of carbon from the forest through the wood products pools counted in the Production Approach is shown in Figure 1-2. It is the opinion of Jaakko Pöyry Consulting (Asia- Pacific) that the Production Approach would be extremely difficult for Australia to adequately implement Stock-Change Approach The Stock-Change Approach accounts for emissions from all wood products within Australia, regardless of their origin. Exported wood products do not need to be accounted for by Australia. The origin of imported wood products does not need to be tracked. However, the flow of imported wood products into various pools within Australia must be monitored. The Stock-Change Approach places the responsibility exclusively on Australia for monitoring the wood products pool. The Stock-Change Approach is a feasible concept that fairly recognises the impacts of exports and imports and fairly accounts for decay rates of wood products in service. The flow of carbon from the forest through the wood products pools counted in the Stock-Change Approach is shown in Figure Evaluating Approaches for Estimating Net Emissions of Carbon Dioxide from Forest Harvesting and Wood Products 2 Australian Greenhouse Office

11 Figure 1-1: Flow of carbon under the IPCC Default Approach Harvest Conversion Decay Australia Sequestration in Australia Forest Biomass Harvest emissions Raw material used domestically Production of wood products in Australia sequestered in Australia sequestered in Other Annex I Countries sequestered in Non Annex I Countries Emissions from Australian produced wood products (NOT COUNTED) Emissions from wood products produced in Other Annex I Countries (NOT COUNTED) Emissions from wood products produced in Non Annex I Countries (NOT COUNTED) Exported raw material Imported raw material Exported wood products Imported wood products Other Annex I Countries Sequestration in Other Annex I Countries Forest Biomass Production of wood products from wood grown in Australia Production of wood products from wood grown in Other Annex I Countries sequestered in Australia sequestered in Other Annex I Countries sequestered in Non Annex I Countries Emissions from Australian produced wood products (NOT COUNTED) Emissions from wood products produced in Other Annex I Countries (NOT COUNTED) Emissions from wood products produced in Non Annex I Countries (NOT COUNTED) Non Annex I Countries Sequestration in Non Annex I Countries Forest Biomass Production of wood products from wood grown in Australia Production of wood products from wood grown in Non Annex I Countries sequestered in Australia Emissions from Australian produced wood products (NOT COUNTED) Carbon sequestered in Australia Carbon fluxes included in the IPCC Default Approach Carbon sequestered in Other Annex I Countries Carbon sequestered in Non Annex I Countries Carbon fluxes excluded in the IPCC Default Approach National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report 3

12 Figure 1-2: Flow of carbon through wood products pools under the Production Approach Harvest Conversion Decay Australia Sequestration in Australia Forest Biomass Harvest emissions Raw material used domestically Production of wood products in Australia Re-imported wood products sequestered in Australia sequestered in Other Annex I Countries sequestered in Non Annex I Countries Emissions from Australian produced wood products (COUNTED) Emissions from wood products produced in Other Annex I Countries (NOT COUNTED) Emissions from wood products produced in Non Annex I Countries (NOT COUNTED) Exported raw material Exported wood products Other Annex I Countries Sequestration in Other Annex I Countries Forest Biomass Production of wood products from wood grown in Australia Production of wood products from wood grown in Other Annex I Countries sequestered in Australia sequestered in Other Annex I Countries sequestered in Non Annex I Countries Emissions from Australian produced wood products (COUNTED) Emissions from wood products produced in Other Annex I Countries (NOT COUNTED) Emissions from wood products produced in Non Annex I Countries (NOT COUNTED) Non Annex I Countries Sequestration in Non Annex I Countries Forest Biomass Production of wood products from wood grown in Australia Production of wood products from wood grown in Non Annex I Countries sequestered in Australia Emissions from Australian produced wood products (COUNTED) Carbon sequestered in Australia Carbon fluxes included in the IPCC Default Approach Carbon sequestered in Other Annex I Countries Carbon sequestered in Non Annex I Countries Carbon fluxes excluded in the IPCC Default Approach 4 Australian Greenhouse Office

13 Figure 1-3: Flow of carbon through wood products pools under the Stock-Change Approach Harvest Conversion Decay Australia Sequestration in Australia Forest Biomass Harvest emissions Raw material used domestically Production of wood products in Australia sequestered in Australia sequestered in Other Annex I Countries sequestered in Non Annex I Countries Emissions from Australian produced wood products (COUNTED) Emissions from wood products produced in Other Annex I Countries (COUNTED) Emissions from wood products produced in Non Annex I Countries (COUNTED) Exported raw material Imported raw material Exported wood products Imported wood products Other Annex I Countries Sequestration in Other Annex I Countries Forest Biomass Production of wood products from wood grown in Australia Production of wood products from wood grown in Other Annex I Countries sequestered in Australia sequestered in Other Annex I Countries sequestered in Non Annex I Countries Emissions from Australian produced wood products (NOT COUNTED) Emissions from wood products produced in Other Annex I Countries (NOT COUNTED) Emissions from wood products produced in Non Annex I Countries (NOT COUNTED) Non Annex I Countries Sequestration in Non Annex I Countries Forest Biomass Production of wood products from wood grown in Australia Production of wood products from wood grown in Non Annex I Countries sequestered in Australia Emissions from Australian produced wood products (NOT COUNTED) Carbon sequestered in Australia Carbon fluxes included in the IPCC Default Approach Carbon sequestered in Other Annex I Countries Carbon sequestered in Non Annex I Countries Carbon fluxes excluded in the IPCC Default Approach National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report 5

14 1.4.4 Atmospheric Flow Approach The Atmospheric Flow Approach is very similar to the Stock-Change Approach in that decay rates for wood products are recognised and exports are regarded as having been removed from consideration as an emission. The sequestration of carbon from the atmosphere into forests can be readily tracked in the same way as growth is handled as a change in stocks in the other methods. Determining the actual decay of wood products rather than applying some assumed decay function is very difficult. For practical purposes, it is not considered possible to calculate atmospheric flow. 2. LOG FLOW AND WOOD FLOW FROM PROCESSING Annual log removals were estimated from data supplied from sources such as ABARE and State forest agencies. Log removals were estimated for softwood, hardwood and cypress pine and further divided by crown and private tenure, State and log product. Table 2-1 shows log removals by log type. Bark was not included in the Carbon Model. Bark is regarded as harvesting residue. Table 2-1: Log removals in Australia for 1997/98 in thousands of m Sawlogs & other Pulplogs Softwood 7,260 3,915 Hardwood 3,505 5,981 TOTAL 10,765 9,896 GRAND TOTAL 20, CARBON POOL CATEGORIES For the purpose of identifying carbon pools, the various wood products produced in Australia were divided into the following six species/industry categories and their respective subcategories Sawmilling Softwood sawmilling is plantation grown softwood either exotic pine (the great majority) or native hoop pine. The industry is generally geared to high volumes and high recovery of product. Hardwood sawmilling largely refers to native forest sawlogs. While some plantation grown logs are sawn, the impact of different technology is ignored this may need to change in future as the plantation hardwood industry develops. Cypress pine sawmilling is treated separately, however, apart from the basic density of the raw material, it has very similar characteristics to hardwood sawmilling Preservative Treatment Softwood preservation is based on plantation grown softwood. Hardwood poles, sleepers and miscellaneous products are based on native forests Plywood All plywood products are included under one category and the roundwood equivalents are calculated back from plywood production statistics Particleboard and Medium Density Fibreboard (MDF) Includes particleboard, MDF and Hardboard Pulp and Paper Products This product is not split into sub categories Export Logs Woodchips and log exports are considered as one sub-category. 6 Australian Greenhouse Office

15 2.2 WOOD FLOW AND THE CARBON MODEL The Carbon Model allows for separate wood flows for each processing sector. Wood flows are integrated across sectors as wood waste and by-products are often used as fibre sources for other wood products industry sectors. In conjunction with the carbon pool and life cycle of timber products, this model enables the total and future carbon pools to be estimated. The components of the models developed for each sector are similar and use estimates of: raw materials inputs; the products of processing; an estimate of the proportion of products by product life span; a final figure for total Australian consumption by end-use categories converted to wood fibre content and to tonnes of carbon. (For the Carbon Model, a figure of 50% carbon by weight of oven dry wood has been used as a default but may be readily changed as required); and import and export data. Wood flow diagrams for each industry sector in the Carbon Model are presented in Appendix 1. Specific calculations have been made for various subcategories and the percentages shown in the diagrams relate to the major sub-category. 3. LIFE SPAN OF WOOD PRODUCTS The life span of wood products must be taken into account when ascertaining the quantity of carbon stored in timber products. In this study, considerable attention has been given to subdividing the various timber products pools into different classes based on product and decay rates. The products life spans differ from those in the Land Use Change and Forestry Workbook Supplement. It was assumed that the decay rate over the lifespan of the product was constant. However, this assumption may not be valid and it requires further investigation. For shorter-term products, the impact of the size of previous stocks is fairly slight as the additions to the pools quickly have the major impact. For long-term products, an estimate of the size of the pool is essential, but difficult. Jaakko Pöyry Consulting has estimated the size of the housing pool using housing starts data. Other pools are also only estimates. The proportion of the pool that has been derived from Australian-grown wood is required in order to implement the Production Approach. However, this component is difficult to estimate and as such, it is emphasised that any estimates should be treated with considerable caution. National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report 7

16 3.1 LIFE SPAN POOLS ASSUMED FOR THE CARBON MODEL Very Short-term Products Pool 1 3 years has been nominated for: Softwood pallets and cases; Plywood formboard; and Paper and paper products Short-term Products Pool 2 10 years has been nominated for: Hardwood pallets and palings; Particleboard and MDF shop fitting, DIY, miscellaneous; and Hardboard packaging Medium-term Products Pool 3 30 years has been nominated for: Plywood other (noise barriers); Particleboard and MDF kitchen and bathroom cabinets, furniture; Preservative treated pine decking and palings; and Hardwood sleepers and other miscellaneous hardwood products Long-term Products Pool 4 A 50 year life span has been nominated for: Preservative treated pine poles and roundwood; Softwood furniture; and Hardwood poles, piles and girders Very Long-term Products Pool 5 The following products are used predominantly in house construction and are therefore regarded as having a life cycle of 90 years: Softwood framing, dressed products (flooring, lining, mouldings); Cypress green framing, dressed products (flooring, lining); Hardwood green framing, dried framing, flooring and boards, furniture timber; Plywood structural, LVL, flooring, bracing, lining; Particleboard and MDF flooring and lining; and Hardboard weathertex, lining, bracing, underlay. 8 Australian Greenhouse Office

17 4. POOL OF WOOD PRODUCTS IN SERVICE The approach adopted for use in the Carbon Model presented in the Usage and Life Cycle of Wood Products report for estimating the carbon pool in housing and the rate at which that carbon is released was to: use housing starts figures as a base; assume an average wood content per house; convert the total wood content to a carbon equivalent; and assume a constant decay rate over 90 years. As a starting point (1997) for the Carbon Model, Jaakko Pöyry Consulting assumed starting values for the carbon pools (other than housing), based on preliminary trend estimates. The start points used for the Carbon Model are shown in Table 4-1. Under the Stock-Change Approach, the total size of the carbon pool in housing stocks was calculated as around 15.8 Mt carbon. However, an estimated 40% of wood products in the housing stocks were considered to have been imported and hence, for the Production Approach, the pool size was reduced. Conversely, the current size of the pool of paper products was estimated to be 4.9 Mt carbon under the Stock-Change Approach, but with substantial exports of woodchips, the total size of this pool under the Production Approach is estimated to be 8.3 Mt carbon. The Production Approach figure was a particularly difficult statistic to estimate as the pool of pulp and paper products imported must be ignored while the pool of woodchips exported must be accounted for. For practical purposes, Jaakko Pöyry Consulting considered the Production Approach to be unworkable. The subsequent incorporation into the model of historical production data from ABARE s Forest Products Statistics series from 1944 to 1998 has enabled a more accurate estimation of existing carbon pools. The revised starting points for the Carbon Model are shown in Table 4-2. The major difference has been the significant increase in the estimated pool of very long-term products predominantly used in house construction and regarded as having a life cycle of 90 years. These results would be sensitive to changes in the base assumption that a constant annual decay rate over 90 years is appropriate. This aspect requires further research and development. Table 4-1: Estimated size of carbon pools in 1998 used for calculation of Production and Stock-Change Approaches to carbon accounting Pool Class (No. yrs to decay) Production Approach (Mt carbon) Stock-Change Approach (Mt carbon) 1 Very short-term (3) Short-term (10) Medium-term (30) Long-term (50) Very long-term (90) National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report 9

18 Table 4-2: Revised estimates of size of carbon pools in 1998 based on historical production data used for calculation of Production and Stock-Change Approaches to carbon accounting Pool Class (No. yrs to decay) Production Approach (Mt carbon) Stock-Change Approach (Mt carbon) 1 Very short-term (3) Short-term (10) Medium-term (30) Long-term (50) Very long-term (90) TOTAL (all pools) OUTPUT FROM THE CARBON MODEL In conjunction with the carbon pool and life cycle of wood products, the model enables the total and future carbon pools to be estimated. In broad terms, the components of the models developed for each sector are similar, using: An estimate of raw materials input, whether of sawlogs, woodchips ex-sawmill, or pulp logs; An estimate of the products of processing, e.g. x % sawdust, shavings or sander dust for on site energy generation or compost, y % woodchips for other manufacturing processes, z % of sawn timber products, panel products, paper, etc; The Carbon Model developed by Jaakko Pöyry Consulting calculates the quantity of carbon in each of the pools described above. The current levels of production, export and import are assumed to continue at current levels. To allow the carbon accounting methodologies to be applied, imports and exports are kept separate. 5.1 IPCC DEFAULT METHODOLOGY The IPCC Default methodology assumes all wood is an emission at harvest. Figure 5-1 and Figure 5-2 show the impact of applying the IPCC default methodology: all of Australia s wood production is treated as an emission. 5.2 STOCK-CHANGE APPROACH Figure 5-3 and Figure 5-4 show the impact of applying the Stock-Change methodology. An estimate of the proportion of products by product categories, depending on whether their expected end-use is long-term or short-term; A final figure for total Australian consumption by end use categories, converted to wood fibre content (oven-dry weight) and to tonnes of carbon; and Import and export data obtained from the ABARE reports by end use categories. 10 Australian Greenhouse Office

19 Figure 5-1: Original indicative carbon emissions from forest harvesting using the IPCC Default Approach ,000 Loss from forest pool (000 s tc) -2,000-3,000-4,000-5,000-6,000-7,000 Year Figure 5-2: Revised indicative emissions from forest harvesting using the IPCC Default Approach Loss from forest pool (000 s tc) Year National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report 11

20 Figure 5-3: Original indicative carbon stocks in Australia using the Stock-Change Approach Carbon pool (000 s tc) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Year 3 yrs to decay 10 yrs to decay 30 yrs to decay 50 yrs to decay 90 yrs to decay Figure 5-4: Revised indicative carbon stocks in Australia using the Stock-Change Approach Carbon pool (000 s tc) Year 3 yrs to decay 10 yrs to decay 30 yrs to decay 50 yrs to decay 90 yrs to decay 12 Australian Greenhouse Office

21 Figure 5-5 and Figure 5-6 show the change in carbon stocks under the Stock-Change Approach. It is important to recognise that the current version of the Carbon Model assumes production remains constant from Therefore, annual additions to the pool are also constant. Given that the amount of carbon lost annually through decay within each pool is a function of the size of the pool, the amount of carbon lost through decay each year increases until the amount of carbon lost through decay equals the addition to the pool from production. 5.3 PRODUCTION APPROACH Figure 5-7 and Figure 5-8 show the impact of applying the Production Approach. Figure 5-9 and Figure 5-10 show the change in carbon stocks under the Production Approach. The decline shown in the rate of increase in the carbon pool indicates that the amount of carbon lost through decay exceeds the increase in the carbon pool arising from production. 5.4 OVERALL COMPARISON OF ACCOUNTING METHODOLOGIES It is emphasised that the Model s outputs are indicative. Importantly, however, the Model provides a mechanism by which Australia s carbon stocks can be determined using different accounting approaches. In Figure 5-11 the outcome of the three accounting methods are compared for the original Carbon Model and for the revised model incorporating historical forest production data. Figures plotted refer to the year As shown in Figure 1-1, Figure 1-2, and Figure 1-3 carbon sequestration is constant across all three accounting methodologies. Figure 5-11 presents emissions only, to enable comparison between the methodologies. Table 5-1 summarises emissions under the revised model. It is important to note that Jaakko Pöyry Consulting made no attempt to quantify the Atmospheric Flow Approach. Figure 5-5: Original change in carbon stocks under the Stock-Change Approach 1,400 Change in carbon pool (000 s tc) 1,200 1, Year 3 yrs to decay 10 yrs to decay 30 yrs to decay 50 yrs to decay 90 yrs to decay National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report 13

22 Figure 5-6: Revised change in carbon stocks under the Stock-Change Approach Change in carbon pool (000 s tc) Year Figure 5-7: Original indicative carbon stocks in Australia using the Production Approach 40,000 Carbon pool (000 s tc) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Year 3 yrs to decay 10 yrs to decay 30 yrs to decay 50 yrs to decay 90 yrs to decay 14 Australian Greenhouse Office

23 Figure 5-8: Revised indicative carbon stocks in Australia using the Production Approach Carbon pool (000 s tc) Year 3 yrs to decay 10 yrs to decay 30 yrs to decay 50 yrs to decay 90 yrs to decay Figure 5-9: Original change in carbon stocks under the Production Approach Change in carbon pool (000 s tc) 1,400 1,200 1, Year 3 yrs to decay 10 yrs to decay 30 yrs to decay 50 yrs to decay 90 yrs to decay National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report 15

24 Figure 5-10: Revised change in carbon stocks under the Production Approach Change in carbon pool (000 s tc) Year Figure 5-11: Comparison of emissions from wood products using the three accounting methodologies 0 IPCC Default IPCC Default Revised Production Production Revised Stock- Change Stock-Change Revised Carbon emissions (000 s tc) Methodologies 3 yrs to decay 10 yrs to decay 30 yrs to decay 50 yrs to decay 90 yrs to decay All pools 16 Australian Greenhouse Office

25 Table 5-1: Changes in the wood products pool and emissions for the revised model in 1998 Changes in wood products pool IPCC Default Production Stock-change (Mt carbon) (Mt carbon) (Mt carbon) Pool carried over from previous year Increase in product pool Decrease in pool due to decay Total pools at end of year Emissions under different accounting approaches Emission from harvest (IPCC Default) -5.7 Emission due to losses in carbon pools (Production and Stock-Change) 6. DEFINING THE KYOTO FOREST ESTATE It is not clear whether the accounting methodologies might be adopted for purposes other than national accounting. If the accounting methodologies are adopted under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol, there is a need to separate wood products from Kyoto forests and non-kyoto forests. Clear definition of the characteristics of Kyoto compliant forests is not yet available. For the purpose of this study, Kyoto forest has been interpreted to mean: forests established as a result of direct human activity; forests established after 1 January 1990; and forests established on land without significant tree cover immediately prior to establishment. The purpose of this assessment is to define the size of Australia s Kyoto forest estate at 1 January METHOD The Australian Kyoto forest estate was defined based on the following assumptions: only forests established post-1990 are included; all replanting of harvested forest is excluded; and all forests that replace native forest are excluded. The decision process to derive Australia s Kyoto forest estate is shown in Figure 6-1. Plantation area data were provided by the Bureau of Rural Sciences (BRS), through the NPI. These data provided a broad picture of the plantation resource by softwood and hardwood areas and by State. The data have some limitations for this study Data Limitations Data for are by region (which cross State boundaries) and for by State; Data are provided at the State level, split by hardwood and softwood; Data for the period are aggregated into a single age-class. It is not possible to split into annual age-classes; Data for the period do not distinguish between new planting and planting following harvesting; and No data on the land use prior to establishment of plantations were available for the entire period. National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report 17

26 Figure 6-1: Decision tree for defining Kyoto forest estate Australia's forest estate Native forest Plantation Planted pre-1990 Planted post-1990 Second rotation First rotation Ex-native forest Ex-pasture Australia's "Kyoto forest" estate To overcome these limitations, Jaakko Pöyry Consulting (Asia-Pacific) and BRS estimated the proportion of plantations in the age-class that were established on first rotation sites. Estimates were also made for the proportion of first rotation sites that were established on cleared agricultural land. These assumptions are shown in Table RESULTS Australia s Kyoto forest estate is estimated to be 323,425 ha, or 24% of the total plantation estate. Over 70% of the Kyoto forest estate is hardwood. The largest proportion of the Kyoto forest estate is located in Western Australia (45%), followed by Victoria (18%) and New South Wales (16%). Jaakko Pöyry Consulting (Asia-Pacific) believes that these estimates are not adequate to enable the National Carbon Accounting System to document Australia s commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, nor do they provide an adequate basis for Commonwealth Government endorsed carbon trading. It is recommended that more detailed plantation data be obtained and a widely accessible database of Kyoto forests be established and maintained. Similarly, there is insufficient correlation between wood production data and whether the logs used for various log products were sourced from Kyoto forests to enable calculation of carbon stocks and flows for wood products sourced only from Kyoto compliant forests. Table 6-2 summarises the Kyoto forest estate by State. 18 Australian Greenhouse Office

27 Table 6-1: First rotation and land use assumptions State Species Period First rotation First rotation on ex-pasture site NSW/ACT Hardwood % 100% Softwood % 100% Hardwood and Softwood % 100% VIC Hardwood % 60% Softwood % 100% Hardwood and Softwood % 100% TAS Hardwood % 10% Softwood % 70% Hardwood % 30% Softwood % 70% QLD/NT Hardwood % 100% Softwood % 100% Hardwood and Softwood % 100% WA Hardwood % 100% Softwood % 100% Hardwood and Softwood % 100% SA Hardwood % 100% Softwood % 100% Hardwood and Softwood % 100% NOTE: Data for the period are for first rotation sites only, hence 100% assumption Table 6-2: Australia s Kyoto forest estate by State State Hardwood (ha) Softwood (ha) Total (ha) NSW/ACT 21,100 32,200 53,300 VIC 42,125 17,275 59,400 TAS 17,275 6,825 24,100 QLD/NT 9,450 14,925 24,375 WA 129,675 14, ,300 SA 12,000 5,950 17,950 Total Kyoto forest 231, , ,425 Total Plantation Estate 389, ,255 1,337,283 % Kyoto forest 60% 10% 24% National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report 19

28 GLOSSARY C ha M m m 3 MDF t carbon hectare (10,000 m 2 = 2.47 acres) million metres cubic metres medium density fibreboard tonne 20 Australian Greenhouse Office

29 APPENDIX 1 Figure 1: National Carbon Accounting Model for Wood Products Sawmilling Wood Flows * Domestic Carbon pool Imports less exports Products produced in Manufacturing process Raw materials Australia Sawlogs Hardwood Softwood Sawmilling 54 % Green sawn timber 79 % Drying and dressing 80 % 84 % Framing timber 35 % 11 % 16 % Appearance grades Furniture 5.5 % MDF Particleboard Pulp and paper Chip export Chips Sawdust Shavings waste 14.5 % Dressed products Framing timber Furniture Dressed/ cladding Pallets &cases On site energy Compost / waste To preservative treatment Framing timber Furniture Dressed/ cladding Pallets & cases Compost / waste and on-site energy 6 % 15 % * Percentages shown for softwood sawmilling, refer to model for hardwood and cypress pine National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report 21

30 APPENDIX 1 (continued) Figure 2: National Carbon Accounting Model for Wood Products Wood Flows in Preservative Treated Products Domestic Carbon pool Imports less exports Products produced in Manufacturing process Raw Materials Australia Green sawn timber Poles Roundwood Roundwood poles Shaping and drying Preservative treatment 85% Preservative treated products Sawn structural timber Sawn structural timber Poles Roundwood Sawn structural timber 15% 3% 42% 15% 40% Decking / palings Decking / palings Decking / palings Shavings Compost / waste Compost / waste and on-site energy 22 Australian Greenhouse Office

31 Figure 3: National Carbon Accounting Model for Wood Products Wood Flows in Plywood Production Domestic Carbon pool Imports less exports Products produced in Manufacturing process Raw Materials Australia Veneer logs Veneer and plywood mill Formboard Formboard Formboard 47 % 21 % 14 % 39% Shrinkage and compression 16 % 70 % Structural Bracing LVL Structural Bracing LVL Structural Bracing LVL Round up, clippings, core trim 9 % Other (noise barriers) Other (noise barriers) Other (noise barriers) Compost / waste and on-site energy National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report 23

32 APPENDIX 1 (continued) Figure 4: National Carbon Accounting Model for Wood Products Wood flows in MDF and particleboard manufacture * Domestic Carbon pool Imports less exports Products produced in Manufacturing process Raw Materials Australia Pulpwood Wood panel mill 71 % 19% Flooring & Lining Flooring & Lining Chips 18% 11 % Shrinkage 16 % and compression 34% Furniture / Doors Furniture / Doors Furniture / Doors Waste sander dust 10% Shop fittings, DIY Other Shop fittings, DIY Other 37% Cabinets Cabinets Cabinets Compost / waste and on-site energy * Percentages shown for particleboard manufacture see model for details on MDF 24 Australian Greenhouse Office

33 Figure 5: National Carbon Accounting Model for Wood Products Wood Flows in Pulp and Paper Manufacture Domestic Carbon pool Imports less exports Products produced in Manufacturing process Raw Materials Australia Pulpwood Pulp mill 70% Paper mill 4% Waste & black liquor Newsprint Newsprint Newsprint 30 % 17.6% Chips On site energy 16 % 16.6% Printing & writing Printing & writing Printing & writing Waste paper Household & sanitary Household & sanitary Household & sanitary 96% 7.5% Imported pulp Packaging & industrial Packaging & industrial Packaging & industrial 58.3% Waste Compost / waste and on-site energy National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report 25

34 APPENDIX 1 (continued) Figure 6: National Carbon Accounting Model for Wood Products Wood flows in export woodchips and logs Domestic Carbon pool Imports less exports Products produced in Manufacturing process Raw Materials Australia Sawlogs & plywood logs Export logs Pulplogs Chip mill None Chips (include sawmill residues) Export facility Export woodchips Export woodchips 26 Australian Greenhouse Office

35 Series 1 Publications 1. Setting the Frame 2. Estimation of Changes in Soil Carbon Due to Changes in Land Use 3. Woody Biomass: Methods for Estimating Change 4. Land Clearing : A Social History 5a. Review of Allometric Relationships for Estimating Woody Biomass for Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia 5b. Review of Allometric Relationships for Estimating Woody Biomass for New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia 6. The Decay of Coarse Woody Debris 7. Carbon Content of Woody Roots: Revised Analysis and a Comparison with Woody Shoot Components (Revision 1) 8. Usage and Lifecycle of Wood Products 9. Land Cover Change: Specification for Remote Sensing Analysis 10. National Carbon Accounting System: Phase 1 Implementation Plan for the 1990 Baseline 11. International Review of the Implementation Plan for the 1990 Baseline (13-15 December 1999) Series 2 Publications 12. Estimation of Pre-Clearing Soil Carbon Conditions 13. Agricultural Land Use and Management Information 14. Sampling, Measurement and Analytical Protocols for Carbon Estimation in Soil, Litter and Coarse Woody Debris 15. Carbon Conversion Factors for Historical Soil Carbon Data 16. Remote Sensing Analysis Of Land Cover Change - Pilot Testing of Techniques 17. Synthesis of Allometrics, Review of Root Biomass and Design of Future Woody Biomass Sampling Strategies 18. Wood Density Phase 1 - State of Knowledge 19. Wood Density Phase 2 - Additional Sampling 20. Change in Soil Carbon Following Afforestation or Reforestation 21. System Design 22. Carbon Contents of Above-Ground Tissues of Forest and Woodland Trees 23. Plant Productivity - Spatial Estimation of Plant Productivity and Classification by Vegetation Type 24. Analysis of Wood Product Accounting Options for the National Carbon Accounting System 25. Review of Unpublished Biomass-Related Information: Western Australia, South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland 26. CAMFor User Manual