Presentation to the Yunnan Forestry Visiting Delegation to the Faculty of Forestry, UBC, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, April29th, 2005

Transcription

1 Presentation to the Yunnan Forestry Visiting Delegation to the Faculty of Forestry, UBC, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, April29th, 2005 By J. P. (Hamish) Kimmins Professor of Forest Ecology Senior Canada Research Chair in Forest Ecosystem Modelling Faculty of Forestry, UBC

2 James Peter (Hamish) Kimmins Professor of Forest Ecology Canada Research Chair in Forest Ecosystem Modelling Director, Forest Ecosystem Management Simulation Laboratory, Department of Forest Sciences Faculty of Forestry, Forest Sciences Center 2424 Main Mall, UBC, Vancouver, B.C., Canada V6T 1Z4 Member, UNESCO World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology (COMEST). Chair, Ethics of Energy Sub-commission. COMEST representative on UNESCO's Task Force on Environmental Ethics Honorary Professor, Nanjing Forestry University Web pages: tel: , sect fax:

3 Ecosystem Management Modelling Ecologically-based Decision Support Systems for Forestry A stand-level foundation for sustainable forest management in the face of environmental change Hamish Kimmins Canada Research Chair in Modeling the Sustainability of Forests Professor of Forest Ecology Department of Forest Sciences, Faculty of Forestry

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7 Coastal Douglas-fir Zone dry, warm summers; wet, mild winters. Maritime(oceanic), semi-mediterranean (subtropical) climate Canada s banana belt Douglas-fir, Grand fir, Arbutus, Garry oak, bigleaf maple Low elevation Fire, root rots, drought Vancouver

8 Coastal Western Hemlock Zone wet cool winters, generally mild to warm summers. Coastal, montane climate Canada s s temperate rainforest Western hemlock, Douglas-fir, amabilis fir, western redcedar Low to medium elevation Wind, landslide

9 Mountain Hemlock Zone long, cool cold winters, deep snowpack (2-10m), short warm summers. Coastal subalpine climate Canada s s west coast, warm snowpack subalpine subalpine forest. The west coast ski zone Mountain hemlock, amabilis fir, yellow cedar Medium to high elevation Avalanche, snowpress

10 Ponderosa Pine and Grassland Zones Very dry, long hot summer, relatively mild to cool winters. Semi-arid, subcontinental climate Canada s s semi-desert forest/western grasslands Low elevation valley bottoms Ponderosa pine, Douglas fir, juniper, sage, grass Fire, drought, browsing

11 Interior Douglas-fir Zone Relatively short cool to cold winters; long, hot, dry summers. Sub-continental climate Canada s s western savannah forest Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, ponderosa pine, western larch, grand fir, western birch, aspen Low to medium elevation Fire, insects (bark beetles, defoliators), root rots

12 Montane Spruce Zone Long, cold, snowy winters, warm summers; relatively dry. Subcontinental, montane climate Medium to high elevation plateaus Interior spruce, subalpine fir, lodgepole pine, Douglas-fir, aspen Medium to high elevation Fire, insects (bark beetles, defoliators)

13 Engelmann Spruce Subalpine fir Zone Long, cold to very cold, snowy winters; short warm summers with frequent frost, dry to humid. Continental subcontinental subalpine climate The interior, cold snowpack, subalpine forest The interior ski zone Engelmann spruce, subalpine fir, lodgepole pine, whitebark pine, subalpine larch Medium to high elevation Fire, insects

14 Interior Cedar-Hemlock Zone wet, mild to cool winters; warm, relatively moist summers. Subcontinental, humid climate The interior wet belt forest Western redcedar, western hemlock, Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine Low to medium elevation Fire, defoliators

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21 Definition of Forestry The art (skill), practice, science and business of managing forest stands and forested landscapes to sustain an ecologically possible and socially desired balance of values and environmental services from that landscape.

22 The Two Responsibilities of Forestry 1. To change the way in which a forest is managed as the desired balance of values and environmental services from that forest changes. 2. To reject current practices and resist proposed new practices that are inconsistent with the ecology and sociology of the desired values and services over ecologically appropriate temporal and spatial scales. How do we judge what is consistent with the ecology of the values?

23 Silviculture Systems A continuum of ecological disturbance

24 Comparison between natural disturbance and silviculture

25 West coast of Vancouver Island in an unroaded,, unmanaged area

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27 Wildfire with salvage logging, near Cranbrook,, southeastern BC

28 Cathedral Grove, Vancouver Island after the l997 windstorm

29 1906 windstorm Pt McNeil, N Vancouver Island

30 Mountain pine beetle outbreak, The Flathead, southeastern BC.

31 Paradigms for a New Forestry Ecosystem management Adaptive management Zonation Variable retention Natural range of variation Results-based vs regulation Monitoring/certification All need forecasting tools and decision-support systems

32 Decision Support Systems in Support of Sustainable Forestry Should be ecosystem-level tools the issues in forestry are ecosystem level, not population level or community level issues.

33 Levels of biological organization Levels of biological integration Function of level Ecosystem Understanding and Prediction Ecosystem Community Understanding Population Understanding Individual Understanding and Prediction Individual Organ systems Understanding Organs, tissues Understanding Cell Understanding and Prediction Cell Sub-cellular Understanding The need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTION

34 Tools to Forecast Succession and its Management Should be ecosystem-level tools the issues in forestry are ecosystem level, not population level or community level issues. Should explicitly represent the key processes the fundamentals of production ecology, and key population and community processes

35 Productive Capacity of Ecosystems Leaf area and photosynthetic efficiency Light Water Nutrients Net photosynthesis Solar energy Respiration Carbon allocation Net primary production Net biomass accumulation Litterfall, plant death, root death, herbivory Harvestable biomass/energy (Humans or other animals) Unharvested biomass/energy

36 6. Tools to Forecast Succession and its Management Should be ecosystem-level tools the issues in forestry are ecosystem level, not population level or community level issues. Should explicitly represent the key processes the fundamentals of production ecology, and key population and community processes Should be cross-scale - stand-level models should be linked to landscape models in meta-models

37 DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: Modelling Framework Projection Forest-level Timber Supply Model (ATLAS) Interpretation Wildlife Habitat Supply Model (SimFor) Polygon- Based Raster- Based Stand-level Model (FORECAST) Merchantable Volume Snags (>25cm dbh) Ecosystem C Storage Early Seral Shrub Cover (%) Visualization Software

38 What Types of Forecasting Tools? Stand level ecosystem management models: FORECAST Non-spatial ecosystem management stand model NAVIGATOR : FORECAST User Interface Effect of Douglas-fir over-story on shrub biomass Timber management table:

39 F ORECAST A management oriented, ecosystem-level modelling framework Uses the hybrid simulation approach: empirical historical bioassay + process simulation Major focus is the assessment of the sustainability of a variety of social and environmental values under alternative stand management strategies

40 M anagement and other events which can be simulated: forestry and agroforestry Site preparation Planting / Regeneration* Weed control Stocking control Pruning Intermediate harvests Final harvests Utilization level Fertilization Nurse crops Alternating Species Mixed species Rotation length Seedling size and quality Wildfire / broadcast burn Insect defoliation Wildlife browsing Organic waste recycling Clearcutting / patch cut Partial harvesting / shelterwood

41 FORECAST Non-spatial ecosystem management stand model Visualization software stand and landscape POSSIBLE FOREST FUTURES: watershed landscape management model LLEMS: complex cutblock simulator LLEMS Local Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator FORCEE: Individual tree, complex stand model Trees Ecotone Open * Is this a clearcut? * What will the future forest species composition be? * How will Douglas-fir compete with western hemlock? * Will shade tolerant hardwoods be able to grow?

42 FORCEE: complex stand simulator output

43 Variable Retention

44 What Types of Forecasting Tools? Landscape level ecosystem management model: LLEMS Local landscape ecosystem management model for complex cut block design under development: NSERC- INTERFOR LLEMS Local Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator Trees Ecotone Open Questions * Is this a clearcut? * What will the future forest species composition be? * How will Douglas-fir compete with western hemlock? * Will shade intolerant hardwoods be able to grow? * Wind, diseases?

45 What Types of Forecasting Tools? Landscape management scenario analysis tool for education, extension and management gaming POSSIBLE FOREST FUTURES: Multiple value, watershed management scenario analysis model Based on FORECAST and FORWADY

46 Stand-level Visualization: SVS Aggregated retention

47 SVS output Dispersed retention

48 Landscape Visualization F orest P ractices C ode S cenario Y ear 25 World Construction Set output Z oning S cenario Y ear 25 Arrow Lakes TSA IFPA: Lemon Creek

49 Envision output

50 CALP Forester Interactive, 3-D 3 D visualization tool

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53 Conclusions We need to put biology and ecology into planning and decision support tools in forestry These tools should be ecosystem-level They should be driven by the key determinants of production ecology Landscape-level decision support tools should be driven by stand level ecosystem management tools

54 Use of Such Tools in Analysis of Sustainability: The Concept of Ecological Rotation Disturbance Ecosystem Condition Short ecological rotation Intermediate ecological rotation Long ecological rotation Time

55 The Concept of Ecological Rotation 1. Rotation too short Harvest Sustainable Ecosystem Condition Non-sustainable Time

56 The Concept of Ecological Rotation 2. Ecosystem recovery too slow Harvest Sustainable Ecosystem Condition Non-sustainable Time

57 The Concept of Ecological Rotation 3. Degree of disturbance too great Harvest Sustainable Ecosystem Condition Non-sustainable Time