Investments. Jack Lutz. Forest Economist Forest Research Group Alton, ME. Director, Global Research FourWinds Capital Management Boston, MA

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1 High-Energy Timberland Investments Jack Lutz Forest Economist Forest Research Group Alton, ME Director, Global Research FourWinds Capital Management Boston, MA 1

2 High-Energy Timberland Wind Fire Investments Biomass Electricity it Wood Pellets BioFuels Forest

3 Caution: Energy Prices CAN Go Down!

4 Caution Energy Prices WILL Go Down! EC DGET, US DOE and IEA all project lower oil prices through 2015 Current $100/bbl oil is based in part on a weakening dollar

5 Wind Lease or sell Access impact Roads Loss of forest area(?) Higher/steeper ground Concerns Noise Visual Impact Mars Hill 42 MW

6 Wind

7 Visual Impact Wind Wind

8 Wind Appalachian Trail ends he e here

9 Wind Black Forest, Germany. Source: Lloyd Irland

10 Biomass Electricity Fuel alternative to oil or coal Can be carbon neutral Impact on forest Outlet for low-quality wood or small stems (thinnings) Local market Low value wood cannot move too far Competes against construction and demolition debris Hauled hundreds of miles in Northeast US CDD is ½ cost of tree chips Electricity can t travel too far, either Regulation of electricity markets?

11 Biomass Electricity 8 Biomass Plants in Maine New Hampshire had 10+ in 1980s Encouraged by legislation Now ~3? Closed as oil/(electricity) prices fell! Ashland! # Fort Fairfield # # Stratton #! Livermore Falls #! # Skowhegan! # # # # Woodland! # Westbrook! Legend # Pulpmills! Major Biomass Consumers Miles

12 Wood Pellets Impact on forest Outlet for low-quality wood or small stems Local market for wood Low value wood cannot move too far Competes against mill wastes Global market for pellets High density fuel, after processing Pellets being shipped from BC to Europe Pellets being shipped from Maine to Europe

13 Wood Pellets Production and consumption are up Encouraged in Europe by legislation to limit CO2 from fossil fuels Encouraged in Northeast US by high price of heating oil Pellet Domestic Consumption (000 tonnes/year Austria Denmark Finland Germany Italy?? Poland Spain??? Sweden ,129 1,256 United Kingdom Total 1,392 1,500 2,204 2,633 Capacity, Production and Consumption in Selected European Countries Austria - Spain ,074 1,375 1, tons/year 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Source: European Pellet Center Now: Pellet@las Production (Total) Production (Austria-Spain) Consumption (Total) Consumption (Austria-Spain) Capacity (Austria-Spain)

14 Bio Fuels Impact on forest Outlet for low-quality wood or small stems Local markets for wood Low value wood cannot move too far Competes against corn, switchgrass, etc. Corn for ethanol has caused food prices to rise in US Markets waiting for product

15 Bio Fuels No 2 Fuel Oil Bio-Diesel Ethanol Not commercially viable yet! Every forested state and province in the US and Canada has a pilot plant (See headlines) Don t be first! World s first OSB plant in Claremont, NH Immediately obsolete

16 Bio Fuels Headline Source Date Potlatch Studies Feasibility of Forest and Agro-Waste Biorefinery at Its Arkansas Pulp and biz.yahoo.com 1/9/2006 Paperboard Mill Group Unveils Plan for Biofuel Industry Bangor Daily News 2/10/2006 Industrial-Scale Test at Pulp & Paper Mill Demonstrates DynaMotive's Clean BioOil Has Potential to biz.yahoo.com 8/15/2006 Replace Natural Gas Xethanol Praises Georgia Proposal for Sales Tax Exemption for Construction of BioFuels Facilities biz.yahoo.com 9/29/2006 UPM Prepares to Invest Strongly in Second Generation Bio-Diesel Biz.Yahoo 11/1/2006 Laidlaw Energy New York Biomass Project Receives Joint Support From New York Congressional Biz.Yahoo 12/21/2006 Leadership $45M biomass refinery seeks home Bangor Daily News 1/9/2007 Woodchips for Energy, Ethanol and Clean Coal; Green Energy Resources "The Company That Can" BizYahoo 1/24/2007 Meet the "Biorefinery Initiative" and Develop Waste Wood Strategy Mascoma Secures $4.9MM Funding from U.S. Department of Energy BizYahoo 3/28/2007 North Carolina opens discussions on strategic plan to strengthen state's biofuels development, use ForestWeb 4/4/2007 $45M Refinery Project on Hold Bangor Daily News 4/5/2007 Weyerhaeuser, Chevron announce biofuels alliance; will explore technology to transform wood ForestWeb 4/12/2007 fiber into fuels for trucks, cars Georgia leaders see ethanol to combat climbing gas prices in state's 24 million acres of pine Forest Web 5/15/2007 forests; Range Fuels aims to break ground on ethanol plant in summer Convergence Ethanol, Ontario government, say old sawdust landfill in Hearst, Ont., could fuel ForestWeb 6/5/2007 ethanol plants Mascoma Corp. to build in Michigan one of country's first cellulosic ethanol plant for commercial ForestWeb 7/20/2007 use; to partner with MSU, Michigan Tech Khosla Ventures pursues cellulosic ethanol projects despite weak ethanol market; Range Fuels to ForestWeb 11/5/2007 break ground tomorrow in first commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol plant

17 Impact on Timberland Investment Conversion process and price of converted products don t matter! Outlet t for low-quality lit wood and small stems Stumpage prices are $1-$5/ton Low price, but this material should be removed from the stand Alternative to pulpwood markets: high volume of low value wood Need to beware of sending high-quality wood to chippers! Delivered prices, northern New England, 2006 US$/ton Biomass $20 $35 Hardwood Pulp $25 $35 Softwood Pulp $25 $40 Softwood Sawlogs $50 $65 Impact on stand productivity? Normal harvesting shifts distribution of leaves, branches and tops, too Fertilization becoming standard practice

18 Summary There may be much money to be made in energy from wood. But: current and near-future e products rely on low-priced wood. Cellulose-based energy products compete with oil- and gas-based energy products Wood competes with other sources of cellulose as feedstock But: many forests can use an outlet for low-quality wood

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