12/10/2006. Managing forest plantations for carbon sequestration today and in the future. Outline. Mitigation strategies in forest management
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1 Outline Marcus Lindner Managing forest plantations for carbon sequestration today and in the future Forests and Carbon Budgets Creating new forests Changing management of existing forests Climate Change and Forest Management Carbon vs. other Goods and Services Ecosystem Goods and Services from Planted Forests, Bilbao, October -, 6 Forests play an important role in the global carbon balance Mitigation strategies in forest management (IPCC classification, Brown et al. 99) The recognition of land-use, land-use change and forestry activities in Article. and. of the Kyoto Protocol has stimulated great interest in forest management options to increase carbon storage and sequestration Conservation management: protection of existing carbon stocks Sequestration management: measures aiming to increase C stocks in forests and forest products Substitution management: replacing fossil fuels with biofuels and non-wood products with wood products Afforestation, Reforestation and Deforestation (ARD) - Kyoto Protocol Article. Afforestations and plantations for carbon sequestration in recent literature Focus here on Afforestation A global Idea afforestation of storing programme CO in trees could was result developed in: already in 97s (Dyson, F. J., and G. Marland Technical fixes for the climatic effects Mio ha of new forest plantations and agroforestry measures of CO. Pages -8 in W. P. Elliott and L. Machta, editors. Workshop on maximum global C effects sequestration of carbon dioxide rate from of. fossil Gt fuels. C yru.s. - Department of Energy, ~ % Miami of anthropogenic Beach, Florida, March carbon 7-, emissions 977). sequestered In the 99s it was proposed to develop a global afforestation programme to sequester carbon in plantations years (Nilsson, later: S., and Have W. Schopfhauser. expectations 99. The carbon-sequestration been met? potential of a global afforestation program. Climatic Change :67-9.) Regional examples: Midwestern US (Niu & Duiker 6) Ecuador and Argentina (De Koning et al. ) 6
2 Carbon Dynamics in Spruce Afforestation (Thuille and Schulze 6) Effect of Afforestation on Soil Carbon: Age effect (Paul et al. ) Regional examples: Changes of carbon stocks in stem biomass, organic layers, and mineral soil up to cm depth, averaged over several chronosequences. Previous land-use was pasture. Weighted-average change in soil C from <, >, or < cm depths under forests of various age categories. studies including sites. 7 8 Effect of Afforestation on Soil Carbon: Previous land use influence (Paul et al. ) Effect of Afforestation on Soil Carbon: Species influence (Paul et al. ) Weighted-average change in soil C from <, >, or < cm depths for three categories or previous land use. studies including sites. Weighted-average change in soil C from <, >, or < cm depths for four categories of forest species. studies including sites. 9 Carbon sink in afforestation: Slow in fast out? (cf. Körner, Science) Changing Management of Existing Forests - Kyoto Protocol Article. Land use change effects on forest carbon cycling needs to balance deforestation and afforestation (Woodbury et al. 6) Deforestation = rapid C loss Afforestation = gradual C gain Land use change in South-Central and Southeastern US 99 - Deforestation Afforestation Forest Floor 6 Tg C Tg C Mineral Soil Tg C 7 Tg C Balance total 9 Tg C 88 Tg C 9 Tg C Carbon Sink in Tree Biomass ~ Tg C Adjust harvest + thinning strategies Change rotation length Choice of tree species Protection from disturbances E Fertilization COST Action E (-) : Contribution of Forests and Forestry to Mitigate Greenhouse Effects
3 Kellomäki and Sanna (eds.). Management of European forests under changing climatic conditions. Final Report of the EU project "Silvicultural Response Strategies to Climatic Change in Management of European Forests. University of Joensuu, Faculty of Forestry, Research Notes No. 6 SilviStrat Silvicultural Response Strategies to Climatic Change in Management of European Forests Stand level strategies Modify rotation period Adapt thinning and/or harvesting strategies Advance planting of broadleafed species under pine Change species composition in stand regeneration Weed control Simulation experiment Studies cover Boreal forest Temperate continental forests Temperate maritime forests Alpine forests Strategies at the scale of the management unit combine different stand level strategies Mediterranean forests An assessment for Europe Carbon (t/ha) Aggregated Carbon pools 8 6 Cumulated sum over years Average pools over years harvested timber aboveground biomass belowground biomass deadwood soil C[t/ha] Effects of Rotation length - Pine Positive on more fertile sites 6 France Netherland Germany Poland SD=.8 Harvest BM_above BM_below Dead Wood Soil Hardly Rotation any length effect (years) on poor sites 6 C[t/ha] Effects of Thinning intensity - Pine Intense thinning problematic, especially with longer rotation length 6 France Netherland Germany Poland RP= Harvest BM_above BM_below Dead Wood Soil Basal area remaining (relative to full stocking) Effects of Rotation length - Spruce Positive on forest carbon storage on all sites C[t/ha] 7 Germany Slovakia Poland Rotation length (years) SD=.8 Harvest BM_above BM_below Dead Wood Soil 7 8
4 Changing the Rotation Length Forests accumulate biomass and carbon when they grow Change in the rotation length is an effective way to manage the carbon budget of forests (Cannell & Dewar 99; Liski et al. ; Harmon et al. ) Stand level studies with COFix Objective: to evaluate how efficiently forest carbon sinks can be managed by changing rotation length effects on carbon stocks of forests (trees and soil) Case studies: UK - Sitka spruce Spain - Scots pine - Maritime pine Finland - Scots pine - Norway spruce Germany - Scots pine - Norway spruce 9 COFIX v. model Stand-level carbon budget model Simulates carbon stocks and fluxes of tree biomass, soil and wood products User-friendly Windows program available for free at Carbon stock (tn C ha-) 8 6 Average carbon stock of tree biomass: pines FIN Scots pine GER Scots pine SPA Scots pine SPA Maritime pine Rotation length (years) Kaipainen, T., Liski, J., Pussinen, A. & Karjalainen, T.. Managing carbon sinks by changing rotation length in European forests. Environmental Science & Policy 7: -9. How strongly can forest management influence soil carbon sequestration? (Jandl et al. 6. Geoderma, in press) Managing forests for carbon sequestration - will it stop climate change? Afforestation Particularly high C sink potential at sites with depleted carbon storage Tree species effects on forest floor C pool are fast Stabilized C in mineral soil responds slowly, species effect difficult to proof Existing forests Longer rotation periods benefitial as long as stands remain stable and productive Management treatments influence C balance mainly through the effect on stand stability Probably not, because... The additional forest sink is limited and saturates Forest sinks may turn into a source with climate change Many socio-economic constraints limit the implementation of theoretical potentials But... Even small sinks contribute to mitigating climate warming No other single measure alone will result in miracles Harvested wood products and substitution of fossil fuels create additional effects (and the latter is a sustainable option)
5 II. Impacts of climatic change Advanced terrestrial ecosystem analysis and modelling, ATEAM (Schröter et al., Science, -7) Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe global Scenarios - IPCC storylines material/economic Based on the Special Report on A A B B environmental Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the IPCC regional Derived scenarios for: Climate Land-use Demand for wood products th Framework Programme shared cost RTD project of the European Commission (EVK-CT--7) - 6 Increment Growing stock NAI, million m per year 6 HadCM a HadCM b HadCM a HadCM b 6 8 NAI, million m per year 6 CGCM a CSIRO a HadCM a PCM a 6 8 GS, million m HadCM a HadCM b HadCM a HadCM b 6 8 GS, million m CGCM a CSIRO a HadCM a PCM a 6 8 SRES Scenarios Climate Models SRES Scenarios Climate Models 7 8 Carbon stocks in trees Driver Impact Analysis: Climate / Land-use / Forest Management Carbon in trees, Pg C Year HadCM a HadCM b HadCM a HadCM b Development of tree carbon stocks, sum of European countries Goal: quantify the impact of management, climate and land-use change on forest resource development separately separate model runs with: changing demand (current climate) changing demand & climate changing demand & climate & land-use 9
6 Increase (%) in growing stock Impact analysis: Drivers affecting growing stock and carbon land-use change climate change management a a b b Relative importance of landuse, climate, and management change for the increase in growing stocks between and (HadCM): Management: 6-8% Climate change: -% Land-use change: -% Challenges of climate change in Europe Climate Change in Northern Europe How will the forest respond to the changing climate? Pine_FinnFor Rovaniemi FinnFor Model: Rovaniemi SilviStrat Final Report Kellomäki et al. % T - - P Challenges of climate change in Europe Challenges of climate change in Europe Climate Change in Central Europe How will the forest respond to the changing climate? Pine_C Chorin Climate Change in Southern Europe How will the forest respond to the changing climate? Pine_GOTILWA Montesquiu % - - % C Model: Chorin - T - - P GOTILWA Model: Montesquiu -8 T - - P Climate change has many faces! Forest management provides opportunities - improving productivity in the North - increasing drought limitations in the South - increasing variability / more severe extreme events - more frequent disturbances (storms, wild fire, insect pests) - invasive species? How to adapt forest management? - Species selection and mixtures - Natural or artificial regeneration - Timing and intensity of thinnings and harvesting - Stand level / management unit level strategies - Application of fertilizers (and irrigation) 6 6
7 Adaptation to climate change III. Are there trade offs between carbon sequestration and other forest ecosystem goods and services? Management strategies need to be region-specific Contrasting strategies available No single strategy is superior to others Diversification of adaptation strategies leaves more options under uncertain future conditions! Important forest ecosystem goods and services timber production bio-energy carbon storage water recharge and water quality nature conservation and protection of biodiversity amenity values and recreational use 7 8 Trade off between carbon sequestration and carbon storage Trade offs between carbon sequestration and other forest ecosystem goods and services C storage Unmanaged forest X X Short rotation forestry Bio-energy C storage Unmanaged X Biodiversity Water recharge Timber production Ambiguous amenity values and recreational use X Short rotation forestry Bio-energy C sequestration C sequestration 9 income Stakeholder groups value ecosystem services differently Priority of partial objectives by stakeholder groups: Multiple-use forest management under climate change (Fürstenau et al. 6, European Journal of Forest Research, online first) Utility of the management according to preference setting of Private Forest Owner Environmental NGO biodiverstiy water carbon seq. EO FO FM EO: Environmental NGO FO: Private forest owner FM : Forest manager of publicowned forest priority Fürstenau et al. 6 Management Strategies: = unmanaged.,, = pine-oak. = pine short rotation. 6 = pine sawn timber 7
8 Conclusions Carbon sequestration may be conflicting with other ecosystem services Combine ecosystem functions which are in line with each other Segregation of areas with different management objectives helpful Multifunctionality at stand level will not yield optimum utility Diversify species, forest types, forest management strategies, forest products and services Good carbon management can increase overall utility! 8
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