Volume and Average Stumpage Price of Selected Species on the National Forests of the Pacific Northwest Region, 1973 to 1984

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station Research Note PNW-446 July 1986 Volume and Average Stumpage Price of Selected Species on the National Forests of the Pacific Northwest Region, 1973 to 1984 Florence K. Ruderman and Richard W. Haynes Abstract Stumpage prices have been compiled for major species for each National Forest of the Pacific Northwest Region of the USDA Forest Service for Keywords: Stumpage prices, National Forests, Pacific Northwest. Average stumpage prices from USDA Forest Service timber sales for major species in the Pacific Northwest Region have been published quarterly by the Pacific Northwest Research Station since 1963 (see, for example, Ruderman and Warren 1985). These prices have been widely used as standard measures of timber values in the Pacific Northwest. Beginning in 1977, stumpage price data for the 19 National Forests (fig. 1) in the Pacific Northwest Region were also included. The reason for adding these data was to provide forest planners and others with prices specific to geographic areas that were comparable to those published quarterly by the Pacific Northwest Research Station as regionwide averages. The available historical data and annual summaries for selected areas for have never been published. The purpose of this note is to present the 1973 through 1984 stumpage price data for each National Forest of the Pacific Northwest Region. Some of the more important trends in the data will also be summarized for the two subregions (the east side and the west side of the Cascade Range) that comprise the Pacific Northwest Region. FLORENCE K. RUDERMAN (retired) was a statistical assistant and RICHARD W. HAYNES is a research forester at the Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, P.O. Box 3890, Portland, Oregon

2 Briefly, these stumpage prices are volume-weighted averages of bid prices minus credits for road costs, and they include an allowance (Knutson-Vandenburg (KV) funds) for improving a sale area after timber harvest. The resulting series of prices have been called the statistical high bid value or, more commonly, sold prices. Until 1984, this series was the most common definition of stumpage prices. There are two other measures of Forest Service stumpage prices. The least commonly used are the prices paid for timber harvested from Forest Service sales. This price is called the cut price and for an individual sale is the adjusted high bid price when the logs are scaled after harvest. This latter series is available only as an "all species" average, whereas sold prices are available for the principal species and all species averages. The second measure which in 1984 became the common measure of value is the high bid price. This series is another form of the sold price but is not adjusted for reimbursed road costs. It purports to represent total returns to the U.S. Treasury. The major distinction between cut and sold prices is that the cut price represents the current value of timber being harvested, whereas the sold price represents the price paid for timber for future harvest. Figure 1 Names and locations of the Nationa! Forests (NF) in the Pacific Northwest; Region. 2

3 Forest by Forest Stumpage Prices Price Trends Summarized Quarterly stumpage price series for each of the 19 National Forests in the Pacific Northwest Region are given in appendix tables 2 through 29. The price series in the tables were compiled from individual timber sale records. In the quarterly series, these prices have always been reported as preliminary in the sense that they do not include sales with a total value less than $2,000. Official sales records do include all sales but in the past have not been available in time for publication. All reported series are volume-weighted averages and are expressed in nominal dollars per thousand board feet, Scribner scale; that is, they have not been adjusted for inflation. Tables 2 through 29 are summaries of volume and average stumpage prices for the various National Forests in the Pacific Northwest Region as they now exist. This means that data for the Snoqualmie National Forest for 1973 and 1974 were combined with the data for the Mount Baker National Forest. The Mount Hood National Forest is treated as a west-side Forest in tables 2 and 13 even though two Districts contain east-side timber types. Finally, data for the Colville National Forest start in the fourth quarter of 1974 when that Forest was transferred from the Rocky Mountain Region to the Pacific Northwest Region. Figures 2 to 8 summarize some of the price series. These figures show two trends. First, there is much intraregional variation in stumpage prices even for the same species, such as Douglas-fir in the west side.-^ Second, there is much variation among prices for various species, which raises questions about how good all species averages are in some applications. One concern is that these all species averages are greatly influenced by the major species in an area. To illustrate the extent to which the all species averages are influenced by Douglas-fir in the west side and ponderosa pine in the east side, we have computed "other species" averages for these regions. Figure 2 shows the relationships among the stumpage prices for the east-side National Forests, west-side National Forests, and the entire Region. For the most part, price patterns are the same for both east-side and west-side Forests. Figure 3 shows stumpage prices for the major west-side species and figure 4 for the major east-side species. In the east side the sharp increase in prices after 1977 were attributable to both the use of sealed bidding during 1977 (Haynes 1980) and the high levels of housing starts in the late seventies. The increase in west-side prices reflects the bidding frenzy in the late 1970's as firms tried to position themselves for what was expected to be sustained high levels of housing starts in the 1980's as the World War II baby boom moved into the housing market. The lower prices since 1982 reflect a realignment of expectations about the future and the effects of increased lumber production in Canada and the South. For scientific names, see "Common and Scientific Names." 3

4 Figure 2 Average stumpage price of all species in east-side and west-side National Forests and the Pacific Northwest Region. Figure 3 Stumpage prices for major west-side species, Pacific Northwest Region. 4

5 Figure 4 Stumpage prices for major east-side species, Pacific Northwest Region. Figure 5 Stumpage prices on the Willamette and Mount Baker- Snoqualmie National Forests.

6 Figure 6 Stumpage prices for Douglas-fir and all other species, Pacific Northwest Region, west side. Figure 7 Stumpage prices on the Deschutes and Colville National Forests. 6

7 Figure 8 Stumpage prices for ponderosa pine and all other species. Figure 5 illustrates the range in prices for Douglas-fir in the west side. During 1980, for example, there was a $75 difference in Douglas-fir prices between the Willamette and Mount Baker-Snoqualmie National Forests. The difference in the all species average is even larger, reflecting the smaller proportion of Douglas-fir in the Mount Baker-Snoqualmie and a larger proportion of species of low value. The influence of these species can be illustrated by recomputing the all species average without Douglas-fir. For the Region as a whole, this difference is shown in figure 6 and is summarized in table 1. Excluding Douglas-fir while lowering the value of the all species average does not alter the trend of sharp rises in prices during the early and the late 1970's. Prices of other species have, however, been almost constant since Figure 7 illustrates the range in prices found in the east side for ponderosa pines. These prices vary throughout the east side; the highest prices are in eastern Oregon. Recomputing the all species average for the east side shows the extent to which the increases in stumpage values during the late 1970's were shared by all species (fig. 8). It also shows how the prices for other species have not recovered since 1982 to the levels observed during the late 1970's. 7

8 Table 1 Ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, other species, and all species stumpage prices for the east side and west side of the Pacific Northwest Region (In dollars per thousand board feet) 8

9 Common and Common name Scientific name Scientific Names Douglas-fir Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco Ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws. Spruce: Engelmann spruce Sitka spruce True firs: California red fir Grand fir Noble fir Pacific silver fir Shasta red fir Subalpine fir White fir Western hemlock Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm. Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr. Abies magnifica A. Murr. Abies grandis (Dougl. ex D. Don) Lindl. Abies procera Rehd. Abies amabilis Dougl. ex Forbes Abies magnifica var. shastensis Lemm. Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt. Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. ex Hildebr. Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg. Acknowledgment Literature Cited Debra Warren assisted in compiling and proofreading the summaries. Haynes, Richard W. Competition for National Forest timber in the Northern, Pacific Southwest, and Pacific Northwest Regions. Res. Pap. PNW-266. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Experiment Station; p. Ruderman, Florence K., Warren, Debra D. Production, prices, employment, and trade in Northwest forest industries, first quarter Resour. Bull. PNW-126. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station; p. 9

10 Appendix Table 2 Volume and average stumpage price of selected species on the Mount Hood National Forest of the Pacific Northwest Region, and processing costs, size and length of sale, number of bidders, and other related price determinants. Prices for stumpage in national Forest lands are statistical high bids. The statistical high bid is defined as the bid price minus credits for road costs; it includes an allowance for 10

11 Table 3 Volume and average stumpage price of selected species on the Rogue River National Forest of the Pacific Northwest Region, and processing costs, size and length of sale, number of bidders, and other related price determinants. Prices for stumpage in National Forest lands are statistical high bids. The statistical high bid is defined as the bid price minus credits for road costs; it includes an allowance for salearea betterment (K-V funds). 11

12 Table 4 Volume and average stumpage price of selected species on the Siskiyou National Forest of the Pacific Northwest Region, and processing costs, size and length of sale, number of bidders, and other related price determinants. Prices for,stumpage in National Forest. lands are statistical high bids. The statistical high bid is defined as the bid price minus credits for road casts; it includes an allowance for 12

13 Table 5 Volume and average stumpage price of selected species on the Siuslaw National Forest of the Pacific Northwest Region, and processing costs, size and length of sale, number of bidders, and other related price determinants. Prices for stumpage in national Forest lands are statistical high bids. The statistical high bid is defined as the bid price minus credits for road costs; it includes an allowance for 13

14 Table 6 Volume and average stumpage price of selected species on the Umpqua National Forest of the Pacific Northwest Region, and processing costs, size and length of sale, number of bidders, and other related price determinants. Prices for stumpage in national Forest lands are statistical high bids. The statistical high bid is defined as the bid price minus credits for road costs; it includes an allowance for 14

15 Table 7 Volume and average stumpage price of selected species on the Willamette National Forest of the Pacific Northwest Region, and processing costs, size and length of sale, number of bidders, and other related price determinants. Prices for stumpage in national Forest lands are statistical high bids. The statistical high bid is defined as the bid price minus credits for road costs; it includes an allowance for 15

16 Table 8 Volume and average stumpage price of selected species on the National Forests of western Oregon, and processing costs, size and length of sale, number of bidders, and other related price determinants. Prices for stumpage in national Forest lands are statistical high bids. The statistical high bid is defined as the bid price minus credits for road costs; it includes an allowance for 16

17 Table 9 Volume and average stumpage price of selected species on the Gifford Pinchot National Forest of the Pacific Northwest Region, and processing costs, size and length of sale, number of bidders, and other related price determinants. Prices for stumpage in national Forest lands are statistical high bids. The statistical high bid is defined as the bid price minus credits for road costs; it includes an allowance for 17

18 Table 10 Volume and average stumpage price of selected species on the Mount Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest of the Pacific Northwest Region, and processing costs, size and length of sale, number of bidders, and other related price determinants. Prices for stumpage in national Forest lands are statistical high bids. The statistical high bid is defined as the bid price minus credits for road costs; it includes an allowance for 18 3 /Mount Baker National Forest with the national Forest July : however, for this report, the statistics have been corbined for all of 1973 and the first 6 months of 1974.

19 Table 11 Volume and average stumpage price of selected species on the Olympic National Forest of the Pacific Northwest Region, and processing costs, size and length of sale, number of bidders, and other related price determinants. Prices for stumpage in national Forest lands are statistical high bids. The statistical high bid is defined as the bid price minus credits for road costs; it includes an allowance for 19

20 Table 12 Volume and average stumpage price of selected species on the National Forests of western Washington, and processing costs, size and length of sale, number of bidders, and other related price determinants. Prices for stumpage in national Forest lands are statistical high bids. The statistical high bid is defined as the bid price minus credits for road costs; it includes an allowance for 20

21 Table 13 Volume and average stumpage price of selected species on the National Forests of western Oregon and western Washington, and processing costs, size and length of sale, number of bidders, and other related price determinants. Prices for stumpage in national Forest lands are statistical high bids. The statistical high bid is defined as the bid price minus credits for road costs; it includes an allowance for 21

22 table 14 Volume and average stumpage price of selected species on the Deschutes National Forest of the Pacific Northwest Region, and processing costs, size and length of sale, number of bidders, and other related price determinants. Prices for stumpage in national Forest lands are statistical high bids. The statistical high bid is defined as the bid price minus credits for road costs; it includes an allowance for 22