Southern Pine Tree Size Dynamics Where s the Pulpwood? (Potential Diameter-class Imbalance in Southern Pines)

Transcription

1 Southern Pine Tree Size Dynamics Where s the Pulpwood? (Potential Diameter-class Imbalance in Southern Pines) Southern Forest Products Association Expo University 5 June 2013 Richard A. Harper, CF, RF Jeffery A. Turner Forest Resource Analyst USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station Forest Inventory and Analysis

2 Focus Points 1. FIA on-line tools issue regarding net growth by diameter/tree size has been revised 2. Historic indicators U.S. harvest share, procurement strategies, and tree planting 3. Primary focus FIA trend indicators by diameter class harvest type (final vs. partial vs. thinning) number of trees sawtimber size tree utilization by product groups net growth and removals net change (Net Growth Removals) change of total volume by DBH

3 Million tons Comparison of Surplus Volume to the Misstated Surplus for Softwood by Diameter Class, GA Surplus Surplus Mistated 6" 8" 10" 12" 14" 16" 18" 20" 2-inch diameter class

4 FIA plot layout Subplots 1-4 Distance between centers 120 feet General plot and Radius 2 stand descriptive Subplot 24.0 feet data Tree measurements are collected on 4 subplots Regeneration data are collected on 4 microplots 4 1 Microplot 6.8 feet 3

5 FIA Label Compared to the Average Years in a 5-year Cycle (Lag Time) AL (7-year), FL, GA, SC Area Inventory Volume Number of Trees Net Growth Removals Mortality FIA Label AL2011 Jan Dec FL2011 Nov Apr GA2011 Nov Dec SC2011 June 2009 Jan. 2007

6 Billion Cubic Feet 10,000 U.S. Timber Harvest Share All Sources 8,000 North South West ,000 60% 4,000 2,000 24% 16% Sources: RPA 2006, Timber Product Output 2011

7 Billion cubic feet Trend in Southern Industrial Roundwood Output by Product Pulpwood Veneer All products Saw log Other Year

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9 Million acres Million cubic feet Timberland Area and Volume by Survey Year, Georgia Area Volume 50,000 45,000 40, ,000 30, , ,000 15, ,000 5,

10 Path to increased small diameter harvesting In the Beginning Sawlogs and Pulpwood Chip-N-Saw OSB/Engineered Wood Products Super Pulp (a.k.a. small sawlogs) Energy (pellet plants)

11 Million tons Trend in Georgia Industrial Roundwood Output All Veneer Other Saw Pulpwood +15% -34%

12 Percent of Total Softwood and Total Hardwood Inventory Volume and Area Harvested Annually in Georgia, % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.5% 78% 22% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Softwood 1.4% Hardwood

13 Acres Million acres , , , , , , ,000 0 Acres Planted in Georgia Acres Planted in the South, Southeast (FL, GA, NC, SC, VA) Soil Bank Program South Central (AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, TX) Total South Years Conservation Reserve Program

14 Thousand acres Average Annual Acres Harvested by Harvest Type in Georgia (softwood and hardwood) % Final harvest Partial harvest Commercial thinning Harvest type

15 Acres 350,000 1,000, , , , , , , , , , ,000 50, ,000 50, Clear-Cut Clear-Cut Planted Acres, Acres, GA GA Average Annual Harvest Acres, % of Total Harvest, (Average and Annual (% of Annual Timberland Acres Acres % of Area), Total and Clear-Cut) GA %) , , ,858 (7%) 181,303 60% 303,231121, ,487 35% 40% 74% (2%) 34,442 93,328 11% 11% (1%) 437,063 51% (3%) Clear-cut Clear-cut Clear-cut Natural Hardwood Clear-cut Received Planted and Clear-cut Replanted and Partial -cut NOT Clear-cut Thinned Replanted Clear-cut harvest Stands Natural Planted Planted Planted treatment Silvicultural Harvest Treatment Type 39,656 26% 11,594 4%

16 Million trees Number of Trees of SYP by DBH Class 2,000 1,500 1,000 on Private Ownership, Georgia -21% % Change From % -1% GA1997 GA2004 GA2009 GA % 0 2" 4" 6" 8"

17 Million tons Volume of Roundwood from Sawtimber Size Trees by Grouped Products, GA (softwood) PW & OSB ST & Ven & Pole +34% Source: TPO Reports, Table 2 ( -43%

18 Million cubic feet Comparison of Net Growth and Removals by Diameter Class, 2004, 2009, 2011 GA (SYP on Private Ownership) inch diameter class 8-inch diameter class 10-inch diameter class Net Growth Removals Net Growth Removals Net Growth Removals

19 Million cubic feet Inventory Volume of SYP by DBH Class on Private Ownership, Georgia 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, GA1997 GA2004 GA2009 GA2011 GA2012 preliminary -7% -3% 6" 8" 10"

20 Million cubic feet Inventory Volume of SYP by DBH Class on Private Ownership, Georgia 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, GA1997 GA2004 GA2009 GA2011 GA2012 prelim. 10" 12" 14" 16" 18" 20"

21 Million tons Average Annual Net Growth and Removals Compared to Inventory Live Tree Volume, Georgia 2011 (SYP, All Private Ownerships) Net Growth Removals Volume 6" + 8" diameter classes

22 Tons 12,000,000 10,000,000 Average Annual Net Change, 2011 (Net Growth minus Removals) 8,000,000 (SYP on Private Timberland) 6"-8" 10"-20" 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 - (2,000,000) AL FL GA SC

23 Take Home Points 1. Everyone wants small diameter wood DBH removals increased 44% and net growth declined 17% over the last 7 years in GA (SYP/Private). 3. Removals exceed net growth in 6 to 8 diameter classes in GA don t forget new industry not reflected in FIA data (FIA lag time) (SYP/Private). 4. Area of harvest type shift thinnings 518% 5. Tree planting decline nowhere to plant, landowners not reinvesting, or both?

24 Take Home Points (con t) 6. Apparent decline in the number of trees for the 2, 4, and 6 DBH classes in GA (SYP/Private). 7. Total volume for 6 and 8 diameter classes shows decline in GA and for some 75 to 100 mile radius queries However, current volume still exceeds 1997 volume (SYP/Private). 8. More 10 and 12 utilized for PW, OSB, energy 9. FIA EDRR (early detection rapid response)

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