Exporting US softwoods to India: facts and findings

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1 Exporting US softwoods to India: facts and findings A report prepared for the Softwood Export council May 2007 By: Rajat Panwar Chris Knowles Eric Hansen Forest Business Solutions Team Wood Science and Engineering Department 119 Richardson Hall Oregon State University Corvallis, OR

2 Executive Summary This report explores the potential for US softwood exports to India. India is a democratic and highly populous country with one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Despite this fast growth, sectors such as forest products are still under-developed. With increasing GDP, per capita income and changing life style patterns there is increased potential for wood products. Additionally, the in-country wood supply is not adequate to meet demand. This has created opportunities for other countries to sell wood into India. The softwood sector in India has traditionally been on the margin but marketplace changes suggest that the modern Indian market place offers opportunities for all kind of products. Wood products retailing has just begun in India and is expected to be a promising segment. Key characteristics of the marketplace include a very tight and cohesive relationship among traders and the presence of a very few key players who dominate the market. This report is based on findings from such key importers of softwoods in India. Potential US softwood exporters must focus on working out freight issues, establishing contacts with the key importers and seeking to establish long term relationships with Indian importers. The report provides a brief description of the major ports that handle most of the wood cargo into India. Additionally, to provide information about how forest products processing is slowly changing in India, the report also includes a tour summary of a modern sawmill. 2

3 1.0 Introduction: India s steadily growing economy, rising middle class, changing consumer preferences, raw material scarcity, and growth in the construction sector have all contributed to augur the proposition that India could be an important export market for US softwoods. Exploring India s market for potential export of US softwoods has been on the agenda of the Softwood Export Council (SEC) in recent years. Several reports are currently available that have comprehensively documented and analyzed the Indian wood market based on macro socioeconomic factors. These reports have covered topics such as India s economic and social landscape, wood products statistics and trends, forest and wood products policies and US-India wood products trade and general wood industry characteristics. Available reports include: The Center for International Trade in Forest Products at the University of Washington has recently produced a comprehensive country profile specifically dedicated to India s wood product industry and wood market. The report provides a snapshot of macroeconomic conditions and social and other trade related issues in the wood sector. The International Tropical Timber Organization provides an in-depth look at various components of the wood sector. In a fast changing economy like India, this report is a dated document but the statistical projections provide marketplace trends. The report provides in-depth information about imports, exports, production and consumption in the Indian wood sector. A consultant for the American Forest and Paper Association provided information on trends in the market and insight specific to softwood opportunities. These reports document rising wood demand in India, an increasing dependence on imports and issues such as the prevailing tariff regime in the wood sector. As in the case of many developing countries, trade statistics and other data are often unavailable and/or inconsistent and provide limited insight for understanding the marketplace. Statistics that are available can be readily found in the CINTRAFOR report mentioned above. This current report is based on incountry investigation in May Information was gathered from key softwood importers, manufacturers using softwoods, furniture manufacturers, researchers at leading forestry institutions and the ports in Mumbai and Kandla. Informants were selected based on several rounds of talks and visits made to academic institutions in the forest products sector and other industry players. 3

4 Figure 1: Gateway of India in Mumbai. 2.0 India: basic facts 2.1 A geographic brief The Republic of India, commonly known as India (locally as Bhaarat), is a sovereign country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by geographical area, the second most populous country, and the most populous democracy in the world. As a comparison, India has about three times the population of the US with roughly one-third the area. India is bounded by the Indian Ocean on the south, the Arabian Sea on the west, and the Bay of Bengal on the east, totaling a coastline of over 7500 kilometers. Figure 2: India s neighboring countries map. (Source: 4

5 Figure 3: A view of the Taj Mahal: a famous monument at Agra, India. 2.2 Administrative division: India is a union of twenty-eight states and seven federally governed union territories. All states, the union territory of Pondicherry, and the National Capital Territory of Delhi have elected governments. The other five union territories (Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Chandigarh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu, and Lakshadweep) have centrally appointed administrators. Table 1 below lists the 28 states of India. Table 1: The 28 States of India Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu and Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal 5

6 2.3 Demographic information India s population has been steadily growing since its independence from England in 1947 and is now the second most populous country in the world after China. India's estimated population in July 2007 was 1.1 billion ( With only 2.4% of the world's land area, it supports over 15% of the world's population. India s population grew by over 20% between 1991 and 2001 (Figure 4). The number of females per thousand males was 933, rising from 927 as of the 1991 Census (Figure 5). The total literacy rate in India was estimated as 65%. The large population places high pressure on infrastructure, social services like education and has magnified socio-economic problems like unemployment, illiteracy, etc. A positive factor is the large working age population, which forms 58.2% of the total population and is expected to increase substantially. Figure 4: Population growth in India over last five decades. Source: Figure 5: Gender and age profile of Indian population. Source: By 2035, India is expected to overtake China as the world s most populous country. By 2050, it will increase to around 1.6 billion people or 21% of the global population. This growth, together with projected macro-economic factors, leads to forecasts such as that between 2004 and 2020 the Indian retail market will more than double to $482 billion. 6

7 Figure 6: A typical marketplace view in India with many people out shopping Demographic dividend Life expectancy at birth in India is 61 years. India is uniquely positioned among many countries with its comparatively younger population to which many people call a population dividend. According to Customerworld, This demographic advantage or dividend to be derived from the age structure of the population is traced to the fact that India is (and will remain for some time) one of the youngest countries in the world. A third of India's population was below 15 years of age in In 2020, the average Indian will be only 29 years old, compared with 37 in China and the United States, 45 in Western Europe, and 48 in Japan. The demographic process this implies would create a large and growing labor force, which is expected to deliver unexpected spin-offs in terms of growth and prosperity. Seventy percent of Indians will be of working age in 2025, up from 61 percent now. That means a typical Indian family will earn and save more. ( India is predominantly a country of villages and almost 70% of the Indian population lives in rural areas. Villages, unlike cities, are highly under- developed places with very little or no Western influence. The vast population residing in villages makes rural marketing an important proposition for any company trying to penetrate the Indian market. Figures 7 and 8 below exhibit rural and urban population percentages in four major Asian economies along with future projections. 7

8 Figure 7 and 8: Proportions of rural and urban population in four Asian economies. (Source: Asian Development Bank, Economist Intelligence Unit) 2.4 Economy: The Indian economy is among the fastest growing in the world with a GDP growth rate of 9.4% in India's GDP in terms of USD exchange-rate is around $1.1 trillion, which makes it the twelfth largest economy in the world. When measured in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), India has the world's fourth largest GDP at around $4 trillion (Figure 9). Figure 9: Major world economies based on GDP at PPP basis. (Source: 8

9 India can better be understood with visuals than a narration. The following four pictures capture the changing face of India and reflect changes in lifestyle (Figures 10, 11, 12 and 13). Figure 10: A typical construction site these can be seen at many places in and outside big cities. Figure 11: Billboards like this are paramount- indicating the boom and trends in construction sector. 9

10 Figure 12: All at one-place: US restaurant-brands are common in big cities. Figure 13: Mumbai: Several places in India portray a picture of Western affluence. 10

11 India has a labor force of million, 60% of which is employed in agriculture and related industries; 28% in services and related industries; and 12% in industry. Major agricultural crops include rice, wheat, oilseed, cotton, jute, tea, sugarcane, and potatoes. The agricultural sector accounts for 28% of GDP; the service and industrial sectors make up 54% and 18% respectively. Major industries include automobiles, cement, chemicals, consumer electronics, food processing, machinery, mining, petroleum, pharmaceuticals, steel, transportation equipment, and textiles. Figure 14 shows the growth of different industry sectors in the first quarters of the financial years and Figure 14: Growth of different industry sectors in 2006 and 2007 (first quarters). (Source: It can be seen from the figure above that construction, manufacturing, and sectors such as hotels and transportation are performing better than others, for example, forestry and agriculture. Since independence, India has allocated nearly half of the total outlay of its five-year plans for infrastructural development. Much of the total outlay was spent on large projects in the area of irrigation, energy, transport, communications and social overheads. Development of infrastructure was completely in the hands of the public sector and was plagued by corruption, inefficiencies, urban-bias and an inability to scale investment. Recently, the government of India opened up infrastructure to the private sector allowing foreign investment. Recent estimates suggest that the growth in infrastructure sector has increased to over 8%. In 2006, estimated exports stood at $112 billion and imports were around $187.9 billion. Textiles, jewelry, engineering goods and software are major export commodities. Crude oil, machinery, fertilizers, and chemicals are major imports. India's major trading partners include the United States, the European Union, China, and the United Arab Emirates. Sustained economic growth and rapid urbanization in India have resulted in the emergence of an urban population, whose disposable income and desire to spend is increasing rapidly. There are estimates that in 2005 the urban population accounted for 28% of the total population (312 million) and that, within the urban population, 85 million were classified as middle class. A growing middle class with significant disposable income is resulting in changing lifestyles and consumption patterns. On the other hand, according to National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) estimates, there are 56 million people in households earning $ 4,400-11

12 21,800 a year, which it defines as "middle-class". This class forms the backbone of the India market story. The upper middle and high-income urban households are estimated to grow to 38.2 million in 2007 from 14.6 million in India also has another class of consumers on the rise, high net worth individuals (HNI). Until a few years ago the HNI population largely spent outside the country. More recently spending by the group has moved in-country resulting in a large market for luxury goods estimated to reach US$ 452 million in coming years ( Table 2 below shows the changing expenditure profile of Indian consumers. Table 2: Changing expenditures of Indian consumers between the years 2003 and 2007 Lifestyle indicators Consumer expenditure on food(us$ million) 132, , , , ,855.2 Internet users ('000) 18, , , , , New registrations of cars ('000) Consumer electronics (Indian rupees million) , , , , , , , , , (Source: Those seeking to capitalize on the opportunities of urban India should explore the eight metropolitan cities Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai and Pune which house a significant proportion of India s affluent urban population (See Figure 15). Figure 15: Major Indian cities housing majority of affluent population. 12

13 3.0 Wood market in India The wood market in India is an unorganized and complex sector. Raw material supply is a major challenge for many Indian firms. Feeling the need for forest conservation, the government of India has placed a ban on natural forest felling, so the limited volume of timber originating from natural forests is through government auctions of those trees the forest department decides to cut. Despite the harvesting ban, demand has continued to grow, leading the industry to look for other sources of raw material. Agro-forestry provides sizeable volumes to the industry, especially the hardwood plywood sector. Imports are on the rise. It is interesting to note that despite a big population segment that is relatively price insensitive, the industry is quite price sensitive. Many people feel that this is due to large profit margins that various actors involved in the value chain make and expect to continue to make. India is facing a scarcity of wood, which has caused price increases of 9 to 13.5 percent per annum since 1982, compared with 7-8 percent for wheat and rice. At present, imports of forest raw materials, promoted by industrial and trade liberalization, are filling the gap. A recent development that will take some time for implementation is that the government of India is planning to lease out degraded forest areas to forestry companies for timber production. If this happens, it could have considerable impact on timber supply in India. Given the dependence of so many forest dwellers on non-wood timber products, there is much resistance from social and environmental advocacy groups on the proposal. 3.1 A snapshot of the marketplace Retail outlets in many bigger cities are selling products positioned with an image of being imported. European brands are especially sought after. With respect to wood products, furniture and interior doors are the biggest market opportunities for manufacturers that do not have a low cost advantage. India does not have the history of DIY consumers and hence there are no real stores that could be the equivalents of the Home Depot in the US. However, large retail stores that sell ready- to- install doors, windows, and wooden furniture are appearing up in urban areas. One such store, named Home Town in NOIDA (Figure 16 and 17) on the outskirts of Delhi, predominantly sells furniture manufactured at various locations in South East Asia. There are predictions that the number of such stores is going to dramatically increase during the next few years. The branding slogan of this store, How easy is it now to build the home, reflects the Home Depot kind of vision and sooner or later it can be expected that retail lumber will also be on the shelves of such stores. Readymade portable kitchens are already catching on among upper middle and higher classes of India and are sold at many stores including Home Town. Such kitchens, unlike the traditional ones, have more wood components. 13

14 Figure 16: Home Town: An Indian version of DIY retail. Figure 17: Childrens furniture is a huge and upcoming market in India. 3.2 Salient features of wood trade in India One of the most important wood market characteristics in India is that consumers are largely unable to distinguish one species of wood from another and it is the trust in the seller that guides the purchase. With the exception of teak (Tectona grandis), species loyalty is largely nonexistent among end consumers in India. Also, both in furniture and panels, consumers are often misled in terms of species or wood quality promised and actually delivered. Termite problems are highly prevalent all over the country and in the case of unexpectedly early damage; sellers often blame it on particular household location having higher prevalence of termites. Unlike other sectors, entry into wood trade has traditionally been difficult for outsiders. Mostly the traders and various actors in the value chain enjoy a tight-community relationship among each other and one generation passes the trading business to the next. It is difficult for outsiders to obtain business information from the community. The tight relationship also has its roots in 14

15 the pre-import era marked by large- scale procurement of illegal timber. However, recent increases in imports have made these traders quite open to non-indian traders. Unlike many mature sectors, the wood market is characterized by trust among various intermediaries. After an importer has procured the goods, further channel members have creditbased relationships. Thus, established traders have an advantage over aspiring ones in that the next actor usually owes them money making the switch to alternative suppliers quite difficult. The channel members differ considerably in their knowledge about real prices. Most often, it is the importer that dictates the price and the remaining members of the channel follow the price fluctuations. Most importers tend to buy more when the prices are lower, stockpile inventories, create a short supply situation and sell off when prices have risen. This is especially true in the softwood sector which is composed of fewer importers. Language issues, inability to buy bulk quantities and hassles and cost involved in imports prevent the downstream actors from directly interacting with exporters. Distribution channels for softwoods and hardwoods differ from each other. Figures 18 and 19 show the flow of goods for softwoods and hardwoods respectively. Figure 18: A typical softwood distribution channel in India. 15

16 Figure 19: A typical hardwood distribution channel in India. 3.3 Softwood market in India: This section documents and discusses the revelations made by the key softwood importers in India. Other sources of information such as, researchers and academicians at the Forest Research Institute corroborated these findings. The information was collected from softwood importers that together account for more than 80% of softwood imports into India. Annual consumption of softwoods in India currently stands at approximately 700,000 m 3. Most comes from imports from other countries. Of the total import volume roughly 90-95% is radiata pine (Pinus radiata). There are three major reasons why 99% of the total imports are in log form. The first reason is there is a lower import duty on logs (9.25%) as compared to lumber (19%). The second reason is sawmilling in India is inexpensive (around 25 $/m 3 ). The third important reason is the lack of a strict standard size in India: manufacturing to the specific, custom requirements of a particular order is the norm. Generally, softwoods are considered packaging and shuttering material. Shuttering refers to providing a base for concrete construction and is removed after the concrete has solidified, similar to concrete forms in the US. Usually, the material lasts for a single use. However, some interior applications and furniture are now made with softwoods. Predominantly, the state of Punjab in northern India uses softwoods for interior applications. Appearance is the only criterion demanded by end consumers. This ties back to the reference made in the salient features section above that people generally don t know much about species and manufacturers often experiment with finishing and polishing to make products more aesthetically pleasing. Indians still want a custom look therefore one buys a sleeper (cant) and has his carpenter make the unique product. 16

17 Depending on appearance of the final product along with the color and fragrance, there is a variation in preference among Indian states. For example, Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) is preferred in the Himalayan region whereas spruce (Picea spp.) is more preferred in Punjab.. Most of the production units that use softwoods for manufacturing doors etc are in the state of Punjab and in Delhi. These manufacturers usually use Masonite door skins. Blue stain is not a problem in Indian market. Similarly, knots, as long as they are sound, are acceptable On a long-term basis, given that there could be more lumber volume per vessel as compared to logs, freight costs will be less per unit volume and lumber imports may become more common. Also, the imminent duty hike on log exports from Russia will impact global log prices potentially making the import of lumber into India more viable. Further lowering of tariffs on lumber and stricter control on licensing the domestic sawmills may also make lumber import more likely. There are also speculations regarding domestic sawmilling being totally closed down in-country due to enhanced environmental regulations. However, this does not seem likely in light of lobbying by sawmillers. Kandla is the major port for wood imports where around 90% of the softwoods arrive. The Kandla port is near the town of Gandhi Dham where there are thousands of sawmills. An importer usually located in a bigger city such as Delhi and Mumbai, purchases wood from other countries. The importers usually have storage facilities in Gandhi Dham as well as in the city where they operate. There is no one channel of flow of goods and importers have links at almost all levels including the local sawmills, sawmills at other locations in interior India, and also with buyers that use softwoods for door or furniture manufacturing etc. The domestic distribution of import volume takes place in several ways: Most import volume arrives as break-bulk shipment, therefore sawmilling often takes place in sawmills near the port. Local sawmillers buy the required quantity from the importer and sell the sawn lumber to buyers located around the country. Some of the import volume is transported to other locations from where importers have purchasing requests. There are usually two ways- it is sawn in any of the local sawmills in Kandla and transported through trucks or rail. Alternatively, the logs are transported and sawing takes place at buyer s end. There are several Internal Container Depots (ICDs) throughout India. These ICDs are run by railways and importers can get their goods to a nearby ICD without having to go to port for reshipping through railways or trucks for within country transportation. Most importers do not feel the need to frequently visit their suppliers. Technology for communication includes phones, e- mailing, and skype-ing. Domestic communication is typically through phones and faxes US softwoods potential in India Growth in the construction sector in major cities and the 2010 commonwealth games in Delhi, along with changing preferences of Indian consumers is creating higher demand for wood in India. Imports of wood are reported to have increased by 600% during last 10 years. Industry experts concur that price is a major deciding factor in India. The following is a summary of the findings based on discussions with key players in the Indian wood products industry with regards to US softwoods in the Indian marketplace: Freight is the most important factor. One needs to work around the freight costs so that it doesn t have a deterring impact on overall costs. Given the increasing trade partnership among 17

18 the US, China and India, it is not an impossible task to carve out some routing that suits the needs of softwoods exported to India from the US. Information systems must be sound for trading wood in India. This includes information about prices, price fluctuations, freight prices, market forecasting and major policy changes taking place. Price fluctuations are significant and there must be a system in place for validating such fluctuation through multiple sources India s love for New Zealand softwoods is beginning to fade, partly because of overdependence on one country and New Zealand suppliers trying to take advantage of this situation. This creates an opportunity for US exporters. The Indian wood market is complex and so fragmented that the best strategy would be to find key importers, work out pricing with them and let it be their responsibility as to how they push the species into the domestic marketplace. Douglas-fir as a name has bad reputation in India because of New Zealand Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) imported in the past which people did not like. An alternative name such as Oregon Pine or even American Pine would serve the purpose better. Recently, Indian importers have begun buying from Europe. Major exporting countries have been Russia, Germany and Belgium. Species include spruce and Scots pine. Most importers believe that such developments will lead to more importing alternatives beyond New Zealand. There is literally no knowledge about US softwoods. Key importers need more awareness and education about US softwood species. Historically, India and the US have not enjoyed close relations and it is a recent development that two countries are coming closer. A common sentiment that softwoods importers expressed is the apprehension about US companies being interested in developing long term trade relationships. The fear is that once the US market strengthens, US companies will no longer be interested in trading with Indian buyers. Because Indian traders are relationship oriented, long term interest and commitment is what they want to see from potential US exporters. Initial trade should start with higher grades to help establish a reputation of high quality but later on lower grades can be included. There is market for every kind of wood in India. US exporters should establish contacts with key players and start exploring possibilities regarding different species and their respective prices. Some softwood traders in India feel that US companies waste lot of time in collecting data and market information, whereas Germans just talk over the phone and start talking about prices. 4.0 The ports Visits to the two most important ports on the west coast of India were made. Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT) in Mumbai and Kandla Port Trust (KPT) were visited. Both ports are ISO certified and use modern equipment for handling goods. Both ports are connected with railways and roads. JNPT handles 55-60% of total containerized trade of India. KPT handles almost 90% of India s wood imports. JNPT is located approximately 30 kilometers away from the Mumbai city limits. Kandla port is approximately 15 kilometers away from the town of Gandhi Dham. The administrative office of the port, however, is located in Gandhi Dham. The road connectivity is comparable to the road infrastructure in the rest of the country. In terms of management, JNPT gives a cleaner and more organized look. JNPT is being privatized and has 18

19 operating stakeholders from Australia and the middle-east At KPT, one interesting comment that our tour guide made was that the biggest shipment in wood they have seen was from the US consisting 12,000 metric tonnes of log volume. Other details about the facilities, infrastructure and handling of cargo can be found on the following websites: JNPT : KPT : Figure 20 below shows the ports of India. Kandla (on the west coast) and Tuticorin (south-east coast) are the most important for wood trade Figure 20: Major Indian ports. 5.0 A modern sawmill in India The team visited several sawmilling facilities in Delhi where operations lack automation and are labor intensive. In contrast, there are a few sawmills in India that are technologically modern. One such mill, Patel Wood Products in Gandhi Dham (near Kandla) let us visit their premises. This mill processes both softwoods (radiata pine) and hardwoods (multiple species from Malaysia). Softwood processing was quite archaic, with lots of hands-on work including manual rotation of logs and cants, manual pushing of logs and cants into saws, and manual pulling of lumber and cants from the output of saws. Softwoods are manufactured into shuttering material only. Hardwood processing was done using two processing facilities (1) a very archaic processing facility with 1900 technology which was how the company started out processing wood. The owner claimed this would only be operating for another year or so. (2) a 2-3 year old indoor processing facility with fairly modern equipment and fairly low manpower involved (Figure 21). This equipment had lasers that allowed sawyers to make optimization decisions and equipment to automatically rotate logs and cants, but no scanning technology. This mill had two processing lines, one for small logs and one for large logs. On each line there was a single band mill headrig that was used in multiple passes to make cants/sleepers. Down the line there was a single band re-saw with a merry-go-round. This mill also had an optimizer used to cut end 19

20 trimmings to the optimal lengths for finger-jointing. The facility had modern log handling equipment. However, log scaling and bucking was done by hand outside of the processing facility. Logs are processed with bark on. Safety, alike most wood products industry in India, did not appear to be a concern at all, with people working barefoot and without appropriate clothing. Hearing/eye protections are nonexistent and people standing/working in harm s way. Figure 21: Various stages of the manufacturing process at Patel Wood Products. 20

21 6.0 Recommendations Based on the observations and interactions at different levels during the visit, we summarize the following recommendations for US based softwood companies: There is considerable market for all kinds of softwoods in India The most important aspect is to work out the freight cost- this would dictate logs versus lumber Rely on key importers rather than searching for local manufacturers With the help of identified importers, some wood manufacturers can be identified. US companies can outsource some production there. This might be a good strategy for developing a trade relationship that might eventually pave the path for substantial softwood trade in the long run. 7.0 Contact information for major Indian softwood importers The following importers agreed to make their contact information available to US companies interested in exploring the Indian market. Mr. Yogesh Jain, Director Sitaram Ferozilal Jain (P) Ltd. 1/38, W.H.S. Kirti Nagar New Delhi-15 India Phone: Yjain@vsnl.com Mr. Rajeev Rastogi, Resident Representative (India) Pacific Forest Products Ltd. 78/3 First Floor Janpath New Delhi India Phone: greenage@airtelbroadband.in 21

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